5/24: Open Game Thread, Part 2
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 11:13 AM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Game Threads
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PrintHay is is Vitor artinez
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So Kershaw's starting tomorrow for the Dodgers
Should be more fun than watching Washburn.
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 11:25 AM PDT reply actions
Which gives us time to watch the Rays.
I’ve thought things through.
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Only after we got the lead really.
We’d been doing surprisingly well patience-wise up until that point. Then we inexplicably decided to let him stay in the game.
~Till the Halo burns out...
He SHOULDN'T be good.
But he’s been nails his whole career when he’s not hurting (usually from end-of-season arm fatigue). Why is a mystery.
~Till the Halo burns out...
No, he *isn't* good
at least not relative to the rest of the Major League starting pitcher player pool.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
3.94 FIP
That seems decent enough to me. And as far as stuff goes, he’s actually got pretty decent stuff. I wasn’t clear on why you were so down on him when last year he was 97% similar to Eric Bedard in terms of his pitch speed and movement according to Pitch F/x. He’s actually got a slightly better fastball, though his curve and changeup don’t have the same kind of bite that Bedard had last year.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Yes
His career hasn’t been that long.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Which part?
Joes fastball is about .5 MPH faster with similar break. His other pitches are similar speeds but have less break on them. Overall, 97.26% similarity.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Yeah, those are useful comparisons
Wandy Rodriguez, Rich Thompson and Patrick Misch are all basically the same thing as Erik Bedard.
Saunders StS% on his curveball, 2007: 3.2%
Bedard StS% on his curveball, 2007: 31%
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
See, exactly similar?
Wait, what’s that small round dot looking thing?
In pure stuff, yeah
One thing Pitch F/x demonstrates is just how big a difference command makes. As well has how true “game of inches” is.
~Till the Halo burns out...
I'm not sure what the point of those monosyllabic responses is.
It doesn’t make you seem intelligent, which I know you are, nor does it address what I said.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Those PITCHf/x comparisons are experimental and generally don't tell you very much
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
That doesn't change the validity of what I said though.
If you go through and look at all of the pitchers in MLB, you find guys who are horrible with fairly good stuff (2007 Ervin Santana) while guys with the same stuff are much better. When you go through the whole of it, I think using Pitch F/x to show how command affects pitchers with similar pure stuff is valid.
It also demonstrates how an inch or two more break on your curve can change it from “meh” to “best pitch in the MLB” the way it does for Joe vs Bedard.
Are either of those wrong?
~Till the Halo burns out...
On the right path, but you need more information
like, say, pitch sequencing and pitch deception.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not trying to write dissertation on this
I leave that to more intelligent people, with better data access and manipulation skills than I have, like you or Graham or Matthew. I KNOW I’m making generalizations. I’m having a discussion on a message board, and I think that in this realm such generalizations are appropriate given limitations on space and time available to me to make them.
~Till the Halo burns out...
But the generalizations are either wrong or uselessly vague.
so what’s the point of making them?
We just established that those weren't wrong
And I don’t really think they were all that vague. What I was getting at was clear. They didn’t address every possible ramification I could think of, but they were general truths that are valid points.
~Till the Halo burns out...
they were general thruths in that both Bedard and Saunders throw
a fastball and a curveball. Everything else is useless or misleading without proper context.
Blog
sorry, I’m sensitive to the “message board” term.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
You are ignoring several parts of what goes into "stuff"
such as consistency of delivery and deception.
Saunders: 13% curveballs
Bedard: 35% curveballs
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Bedard's curveball is (was?) one of the best pitches in baseball
Saunders’ curveball is not.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah.
That’s why Bedard last year was one of the best pitchers in baseball, while Saunders is simply a good/decent MLB pitcher.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Saunders is a #4 whose 2008 ERA is one of the biggest flukes in the league
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think you can reason with some people....
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 24, 2008 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess that depends on your definition of a number 4.
I’d say closer to a number 3 myself.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Well he's about whatever you consider Carlos Silva to be
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I think he's better than Silva.
While his K-Rate at the moment is comparable to Silva’s career, his own Career K-Rate is higher.
~Till the Halo burns out...
But so is his walk rate
in terms of expected run output, they are pretty similar, even if they get there in slightly different ways.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Walk rate is partially a function of command though, and Joe is still young enough to improve
Joe also had his share of bad luck, especially last year, with a higher-than usual line drive rate, a high babip, and a low LOB%. This season all of those trends have reversed. In a way, this season represents a partial progression to the mean for him.
~Till the Halo burns out...
No it doesn't
This season represents a massive fluke.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
sustainable things Joe Saunders is above average at:
-getting groundballs (barely)
-having his classmates shot at
Not sure about the latter
sample size
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I still say that his HR/FB rate isn't that unsustainable in Angel stadium
It certainly hasn’t been for every other Angels pitcher.
~Till the Halo burns out...
You say that, but then THT
comes out with studies like this one come out, telling me that Angel Stadium has been nearly as hard to hit HR out of as PETCO the last 5 years, and I start to wonder.
~Till the Halo burns out...
We've accounted for the park factor
It’s still a fluke
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Even if this is true
are you trying to give Saunders credit for a park effect?
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
No, I'm saying that as long as he's an Angel, it won't change.
At least not to the degree that you guys seem to expect it to.
~Till the Halo burns out...
I expect it to change a great degree from its current 2.whatever
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
His HR/FB is 6.0
That is unsustainably low.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Accounting for the Anaheim HR/FB factor it should be about 9
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends on what you mean
I was talking HR/FB, including popups. Per OFB it’s closer to 11.
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
It's a .87 factor
It just translates into 0.935 because he plays half his games away
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, to answer your question:
Calculating and applying it rigorously does indeed yield/use 0.87, but the # of outfield flies is actually raised by ANA depressing popups/fly
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Okay wait
If MLB average for HR/FB is 11% than how does Angels stadium adjust that to 9% for an Angels pitcher? It doesn’t seem like a .94 adjustment, even if it’s only OFFBs would do that, since IFFB only account for like 5% of Flyballs.
That’s what I’m looking for here.
~Till the Halo burns out...
MLB average for HR/OFB was like 11.5% last year
MLB average for HR/FB was closer to 9.4%ish.
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, i am doing a terrible job of explaining what the hell I'm talking about
I apologise for any confusion
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
No, now it's starting to make sense
in the PAST you’ve done a horrible job and that resulted in our first conversation. :-P
~Till the Halo burns out...
Ah. Okay, now this is starting to make more sense
I think I found the disconnect in our previous discussions on this. I was operating on the thought that 11.5 was for all flyballs, and that therefore the HR/FB rates of the Angels pitchers weren’t just low but UNREASONABLY low as a group, and that therefore there must be a reason for it.
~Till the Halo burns out...
But even if it goes up to 8.8
like last year, that’s not going to bring his ERA back up to 4.whatever.
~Till the Halo burns out...
LD%: 12.5
That’s the real difference here
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Pretty much.
I don’t think he can keep that up, though it’s a welcome change from 20.
~Till the Halo burns out...
Yeah, he can't
That’s not sustainable at all.
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes
It’s just more to blame for his success than HR/FB is.
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
So in conclusion
his success is unsustainable.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes. But his stats last year were a fluke in the opposite direction.
According to just about everything you guys have been telling me about the average rates of the things I mentioned, he should have been better last year.
~Till the Halo burns out...
No, not really.
His BABIP was a little bit low, but his LOB% was fine and he’s been lucky on getting Ks and avoiding walks.
I thought getting K's and avoiding walks were the whole point.
Good pitchers do them and bad pitchers don’t.
~Till the Halo burns out...
good pitchers miss bats and throw strikes
Saunders is below average at both of those.
Why?
ERA in the mid-4’s, peripheral ERA in the mid-4’s.
This year he’s just flipping out.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
How to be the best hitter ever by Joe's Tracer: Never swing at any pitch
you will have a 1.000 OBP from walks.
Oh man
I remember him explaining that once… He said he hadn’t even heard it, but one of his friends told him it was a good song… and so he started using it as his up to bat song.
by lyleleander on May 24, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Hm speaking of umpire issues
Anyone else find it amusing that former SteAler Joey Porter is bitching about the Patriots and calling them cheaters?
hush Dave, Jon Lester sucks
also, wow that was high
everyone on this team missed their calling
they’d be excellent cricketeers
Sure, he's good
I just don’t look forward to Kay and Cone ramming it down my earholes
Joba against the Mariners
It’s like the honor student picking on the retarded kid in the classroom.
i can't watch the m's without LL
Pop goes the buttsy on the left hand side!!
by PhilKenSebben on May 24, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Zenitra Ritov sounds like an Eastern European girl I'd like to sleep with
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Eastern European girls are so hot they make me sexist.
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I am not sure what this woman would look like
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
If it's the opposite of Victor she's be ridiculously eloquent and attractive.
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Neither am I
But the thought was obviously enough to put you off Zenitra
Vitor artinez is IJ
Can’t speak, demon typist.
Upon further review
Marge uttering “Here we go again” is actually from the episode “Sideshow Bob’s Last Gleaming”.
I am sure that no one cares, but I don’t like to be on the record as having made an incorrect Simpsons reference without taking corrective action.
-aaron c.
Why not just use MLB Radio?
In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.
by Robert Lintott on May 24, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, that makes sense
But you can do that from archive… during the game you might as well listen to Dave…
In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.
by Robert Lintott on May 24, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
That would be sorely missed
In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.
by Robert Lintott on May 24, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
OH SHIT I GET IT NOW.
It’s from those ads that play in btw. innings. Where Martinez sounds like a manure salesman with a mouthful of sample.
Two questions, FWIW:
1.) WTF is this whole “Vitor Artinez” thing about? A series of embarrassing typos by someone with a shit keyboard?
2.) What, realistically, is the next step for the M’s in terms of things getting worse? Because they will get worse. They have to. What next.
June 6th, 2009:
With the first choice in the 2009 draft, the Mariners take Nobody McFucknut LHP from Pepperdine.
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Mine would make me much much angrier
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Have Silva kill Washburn, get Silva arrested, start Morrow?
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Well....no
but I don’t know how your brain works. Mine is stupefied by what we could do (done) with just a small break here and/or there.
Does it involve a certain UW graduate
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Looks like another 5+ run blowout in effect, gentlemen.
Perhaps we’ll set a record for consecutive games.
Three Utah miners, two WTC employees, and a VT student walk into a bar
I’m just kidding, they’re dead
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like Raisin Bran
One guy came to my house, and suddenly my Raisan Bran disappeared.
I always wondered to myself…who would steal a box of Raisin Bran?
about Victor aartinez
that whole commercial is an ad for mlb.tv, no?
and no one can see it except for subscribers.
did the mariners approve the commercial?
Erik Bedard is not getting the job done
”...mmm…”
If Bavasi's such a nice guy who wants to make his players happy
why did he force Ichiro to stay with Seattle for the rest of his productive career?
Great news everyone!
With that ground-rule double, the Mariners have now tied the Cardinals for most doubles given up, with 120! I knew they could do it!
the other angels fan
The important thing is that Vidro hit a FB
So he’s clearly not the problem!
The artist formerly known as Katal
Clement has 5 XBH in the past 4 games
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
He couldn't produce in the big leagues where it really counts
/Baker
The artist formerly known as Katal
Justin Morneau looks like John Cena
Word Life.
well he IS the franchise.
Pop goes the buttsy on the left hand side!!
by PhilKenSebben on May 24, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Does losing by only 8 runs count as a good performance?
I’m not sure any more
Can I just say I love JReed
(I like Richie too) hope he starts hitting “respectably” (above .240)
http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com
No wait, typo
sorry, it never cleared 1% there.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Mariners pitching: 6.3 K, 3.7BB, 43% GB
Nationals pitching: 6.4K, 3.8BB, 45% GB
Mariners pitchers I have heard of: Everyone
Nats pitchers I have heard of: Odalis Perez? Er… Ross Detwiler?
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions
You should know who Bergmann and Lannan are...they have a lot of talent.
Lannan’s been quietly putting together a fantastic rookie season.
I know who most of them are
I’ve had to copy all of their stats into a spreadsheet multiple times
by Graham MacAree on May 24, 2008 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions
John Lannan is better than Joe Saunders
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
He goes today against the Brewers. Hope all turns out well.
He’s one of the few bright spots this season.
And that's only because the Nats have one extreme groundballer (Hill) and two piles of suck in Chico and Perez
Bergmann and Lannan actually strike out lots of guys.
Also note: the Nationals are a better team than the M’s right now even though nobody in their outfield can hit worth a shit.
What the hell happened to you Elijah?
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 24, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Gibson hasn't been great either, but damn.
I had Dukes pegged for some good things this year, just as our right fielder.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 24, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Hysterical
Chad Cordero is the only pitcher on Washington’s staff making more than $2m.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 24, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
And he's probably out for the entire season.
Our close now is Jon Rauch. Tallest pitcher in ML history, actually.
His nickname: “The Wookie.”
A silver spoon to gouge your eyes out?
That too would be worth the $20
In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.
by Robert Lintott on May 24, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Sorry
Not to gouge your eyes out, rather, just to gouge out the eyes of all mariners fans… That was a mariners insult, not a you insult
In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.
by Robert Lintott on May 24, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
my dad didn't really pay for my subscription
victor artinez seduced me
i’m going to gouge out my eyes out now, no offense taken
let's try this again
I forgot to capitalize the A – i caught that after.
“You’re doing it wrong”
2008 LL stats: 1 warning (HiiVa politics related)
that A) wasn't even close to a strike
and B) wasn’t strike 3
it would be the most hilarious thing ever if we came back and won now
we won’t, not even close, but man…
Geoff:
Another day, another pitiful performance turned in by the Mariners, this time a 12-6 defeat to the New York Yankees. Seattle made things interesting until the sixth inning, when Jose Lopez pretty much torpedoed their chances with an error that cost the team two unearned runs.
Lopez didn’t give up the ensuing home run.
We swing of error: -1.1%
WE swing of homer: -18.3%
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