5/23: Open Game Thread, Part 3
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 5:47 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Game Threads
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PrintNot that I think it would make a difference or anything, but John McLaren is not long for this job.
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I find McLaren to be a sympathetic figure these days
and no I can’t believe I’m saying that.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions
It was a joke that clearly failed
Much like tonight’s proceedings, in fact
If this was a video game
I’d be aiming for the best play on the other teams head at this point.
I always do that when my start gets shelled, hit people until he gets ejected.
The poster formerly known as Matt.
Over/Under 100 Losses?
I’m leaning under right now, but yikes…
by LongLiveTheKings on May 23, 2008 5:53 PM PDT reply actions
Why do people find the over/under so hard to understand?
“An over-under or over/under bet is a wager in which a sportsbook will predict a number for a statistic in a given game (usually the combined score of the two teams), and bettors wager that the actual number in the game will be either higher or lower than that number. For example, in Super Bowl XXXIX, most Las Vegas casinos set the over-under for the score of the game at 46.0. A bettor could wager that the combined score of the two teams would be either more than or less than that number (as it happened, the combined score was 45, so anyone who had bet the under won).”
by Smegmalicious on May 23, 2008 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Ignore me, you acutally did it right!
I was currently arguing about that same thing with someone else on another board.
BTW…under.
by Smegmalicious on May 23, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
And also, over/unders have become very standard prop bets as well
hence why they have O/Us on the boards before the season for MLB team wins, players home runs, etc.
by seattlebruin on May 23, 2008 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions
It will depend on how quickly dead weight is cleared out
Crappy but younger talent will at least put up some sort of a fight.
Can't wait for the next Baker blog update
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
If we win at least
it will be a win worthy of the bass playing cat
by JI on May 23, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I wonder if McLaren realizes that the only way getting tossed out motivates your ballclub
is when you are actually respected by your ball club and everyone likes you.
...and now I'm here
If we're going to go down
At least we’re going down knuckling.
So we need someone that speaks Canadian French.
Shouldn’t be hard to find…
by Smegmalicious on May 23, 2008 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
We must give up 17 more runs
Then the humiliation will be complete
If we're gonna put on a bad show
it might as well be Manos bad.
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh, so this is NOT how you want to start the series.
...and now I'm here
Beltre is not going to re-sign here.
...and now I'm here
He's going to get a truckload of money anywhere
And he’s already rich. If you were rich and assured to make a ton of money no matter where you went, would you take more money to play with a bunch of losers?
by Smegmalicious on May 23, 2008 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
No.
This is why I said “Beltre is not going to re-sign here.”
...and now I'm here
Yeah.
It’s depressing, but that’s the facts.
by Smegmalicious on May 23, 2008 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Sexson's contact sounded like an aluminum bat... weird
by LongLiveTheKings on May 23, 2008 6:04 PM PDT reply actions
Hahaha I thought you said
Sexson’s contract sounded like an aluminum bat.
So that’s what wasted money sounds like.
the other angels fan
Anyone else beggining to think that there is some non-talent problem going on here?
We are not this bad. Maybe some intangible issue?
Needs more hustle
And grit. And guys who’ve been through wars.
by Smegmalicious on May 23, 2008 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
"Suck" is intangible.
This team has too much suck.
...and now I'm here
We should have won 79.
Sooooooooooooo yes.
"I'm out there Jerry, and I'm llllllovin' every minute of it!"
No.
It may have. He was an injury risk, we had no right fielder, and no good set-up man for putz. There was the potential for it to make us better, and it didn’t.
...and now I'm here
wait was there talent in the first place?
Kind of hard to believe that, even with massive luck, that a non-talented team could win 88 games
yeah, we sucked and lost a lot
We are much better now, so should be winning much more
Offense was worse on paper
rotation was better, defense was worse
The faulty assumption is that the players talent level remain consistent from 2007 to 2008.
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought the defense was supposed to slightly better
Wilk > Guillen, bounce back from Yuni, etc.
It didn’t turn out that way, but still.
FREE JEREMY REED!!
The 2003 Mariners won 93 games
the 2004 Mariners had a very similar roster.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
So you can't predict reliably
“that’s why you play the games”?
predictions can be reliable
I predict that the sun will rise tomorrow…
that's a fact, not a prediction
...and now I'm here
I knew you were setting me up, I had to deliver.
...and now I'm here
See, clutch does exist!
Take that stat-heads.
I've been working on my situational posting.
...and now I'm here
I post better against righties.
...and now I'm here
The cornier answer would have been:
“You strike out against wrongies.” But that works too.
...and now I'm here
Show me where in the rule book it says the home team can't change the rules?
...and now I'm here
if that is in the rule book, I can do that in theory
Showing that the sun will rise tomorrow cannot be shown because it hasn’t happened yet.
Good call, you're right.
And so, your point would be that we made a prediction about this team, and it either happened or it didn’t.
...and now I'm here
My point is more general
that a given method of prediction can be described as more or less reliable based on its past success/failure in prediction. Predictions aren’t by definition unreliable.
Baseball team predictions, however, are unreliable
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions
You were surprised that weren't kicking ass.
Most of us thought we were a mediocre team.
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought they were .500
They are historically awful right now, big difference
They could still be a .500 team.
Unlikely, but I don’t think anyone thinks this team will lose 100 games.
I think people are missing the coin flip analogy.
Even if this team is a .500 team right now (they’re not), that does not mean they are going to win 81 games. Just because you flip a coin 5 times does not mean you will get 5 heads and 5 tails. There are variations, etc.
This is a really bad team. Their badness is close the realm that was believed possible before the season started, minus a few disappointments. Like a weighted coin we are more likely to get a loss. Say, 65%. But just because we are supposed to lose only 65% does not mean we can’t lose 70% or lose only 50%
Similarly, even if we are a .500 team, That does not mean we cannot still lose 100 games and just be really, really unlucky.
...and now I'm here
Subthread Time of Death:
6:39 PM.
...and now I'm here
... Of the subthread.
You can live.
...and now I'm here
???
They are if they’re based on faulty data. Which is what we are getting at, which is why you are surprised that we blow.
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions
ok the data wasn't faulty
The numbers never lie, only our interpretations of them do.
Many people had faulty interpretations of the data.
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Wasn't your point in this discussion exactly the opposite?
...and now I'm here
My only point that I really made about
anything was that it’s not true that all predictions are unreliable
...again
I think starving Astronauts would be much funnier
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Not something I can do with paint.
But world hunger!
...and now I'm here
You can't photoshopp a bib, a plate with a rock on it, and fork and knife
on to a moon walk photo?
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions
It's Paint, not photoshop.
And I can, but not in a time frame that warrants using it.
...and now I'm here
I think it has good potential for hilarity
but I think a hand drawn cartoon would be better.
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I draw well.
No scanner though :(.
...and now I'm here
it's not a fact
it’s extremely likely, but there is a chance that earth or the sun could be wiped out
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
By their nature they are only someone best guess, not a record of the future.
There are good predictions and bad predictions, just because some people make lousy predictions, it does not mean that all predictions are faulty or even unlikely.
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions
there is no such thing as a record of the future anyway
Reliability can be assessed based on past trials
With that logic, nothing is a fact.
If I chop off your head you may die. But it is possible that the 100000000 other times in history that someone had their head chopped off happened to coincide EXACTLY with a person’s death, by sheer coincidence, though the two are unrelated.
...and now I'm here
That's a fact that you're rewording.
And you are right. They can be. But the sun may not rise tomorrow. That would be pretty embarrassing for you, huh?
...and now I'm here
Right, it's not a fact
We cannot predict baseball with the same accuracy with which we predict sunrises. Is that your point?
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions
That wasn't my point
My point is that predictions can be more or less reliable, they are not always unreliable as someone pointed out, be definition
I know I'm arguing obvious things
People enjoy disagreeing though. Funny.
There are always going to be outliers
this is one of them. And if you don’t think people had these concerns before the season then you weren’t reading.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
You can predict reliably
Outliers like this one are not the norm. You won’t be right 100% of the time but you’ll be right most of the time.
Look at the 85 royals, 87 Twins, and the 06 Cardinals
report back once you find the common thread
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions
the common thread by the way
is that the Cardinals deserve to win one more World Series with a really shitty team
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
So we go from 88 wins to this after making improvements to the team?
That happens why?
We did not make improvements.
We made replacements, and then declined.
...and now I'm here
How can a decline this huge happen without any clear reason?
If declines like this can happen without clear reason, how can anyone predict anything?
What do you mean "without any clear reason"?
Players got worse. That’s a pretty clear reason.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions
And they were lucky.
Now they are less so. They got older and they’re not lucky = bad.
...and now I'm here
Reason: They're all old.
Who could predict it? Me, I predicted it. As did the stats that said we were way the hell lucky last year.
Next question: This bad? No one predicted this bad a decline!
The answer: Untrue. We had a lot of question marks that had a wide range of outcomes. They all happened to fall into the bad range.
...and now I'm here
Wasn't a true 88 win team.
Defense got older/worse. Most of the offense got older/worse. Lost Sherrill.
the other angels fan
The team added two players (Bedard and Silva) who are technically an improvement.
The rest of the team got older, worse and way less lucky.
I mean, they have to fire somebody after this ...
this is getting beyond embarrassing.
by The Ghost of Spike Owen on May 23, 2008 6:11 PM PDT reply actions
I hope it is me.
I deserve unemployment for having to watch this shit.
...and now I'm here
I was going to wait to work on this until after the game but given the circumstances
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:13 PM PDT reply actions 9 recs
me too
the smaller the picture the smoother the video
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
When I loaded the 400k for this 2007 game the picture was huge >:(
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
It's probably just your recording tool.
If you have problems with the frame rate (which this one doesn’t) you can paste the game feed into WMP and shrink it down even further.
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions
LOL WINDOWS
Pop goes the buttsy on the left hand side!!
by PhilKenSebben on May 23, 2008 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions
interesting
maybe it has something to do with the settings???
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I like the version that shows Felix rolling around on the ground laughing.
One of the many reasons Felix is my favorite Mariner.
I am utterly mesmerised by this picture
It just sums up our season perfectly
Oops, I didn't notice the date
The Lawn Dart can be this season’s contribution to the time capsule
Also, I'm very very late to the topic
but I like the 75 word rule, Jeff. Be able to fill in the blanks, people.
I hope you and others will help me berate future violators
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I should've read his update before posting this
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't you love Jeter?
What are you, a terrorist?
by Smegmalicious on May 23, 2008 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Coldly devouring reason as if it were a delectable snack
by Frosty Raptor on May 23, 2008 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions
According to this ratio it should be 8-13
Mariners- 8 hits, 2 runs
Yankees- 13 hits, 13 runs
Seriously, WTF mariners?
No XBH.
Mariner offense is back to being 3-4 singles to score a run, just like the bad old days.
by eponymous_coward on May 23, 2008 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow. I'm in the Alaska Airlines lounge at SeaTac.
M’s game got turned off sometime around 9-2.
Good news: today’s soup is Cheddar broccoli with chicken and rice.
by eponymous_coward on May 23, 2008 6:29 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Also: guess who's not watching Mariner games in Vegas this weekend?
Somehow, I don’t think I’d take watching Washburn throwing the suck pitch over girlwatching at the Wet Republic pool.
by eponymous_coward on May 23, 2008 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions
What a shit day, Rome was in the basement, then this.
I need to play some MVP ‘05
Pop goes the buttsy on the left hand side!!
Digital oracle of the baseball gods
I had Bedard on the mound the other day in MVP Baseball 2005 and he suffered a broken nose on a routine grounder to the shortstop.
Dudes at EA must be clairvoyant.
Coldly devouring reason as if it were a delectable snack
by Frosty Raptor on May 23, 2008 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Ben Broussard is the batting champion for me.
but i also have richie hitting .330
Pop goes the buttsy on the left hand side!!
by PhilKenSebben on May 23, 2008 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I need to get mlb.tv or start recording the games on my dvd-r
Pop goes the buttsy on the left hand side!!
by PhilKenSebben on May 23, 2008 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions
You could make a good version of the VIDRO SCORES gif
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Working on another one
How do you import into WMP?
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I do it all time so I can dock the window on top of the browser
It doesn’t work if you have silverlight installed (or at least I don’t think it does). You open the game as usual, as soon as the game loads you right click--> properties and copy the address. you then past the address into WMP: File—-> open URL. You must do this quickly because the addresses change constantly. I think it works on archived games but I am not sure.
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I used to have a FF add on that did this automatically
but I can’t remember what it’s called
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Got it to work, thanks
new one coming up shortly.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I can't believe those instructions were coherent.
by JI on May 23, 2008 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Needs better fps (although this is deliberately slow-mo)
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions
i don't have mine set to the max
but I think some adjustment is necessary
by JI on May 23, 2008 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not the capture that's the problem
it’s the AVI—> GIF conversion.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions
The better the source the better the gif
if ithe video looks fine, the gif should look good to.
by JI on May 23, 2008 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions
The video itself is from a slow-motion capture
but then when I convert it it gets even slower.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah, exactly
wtf???
When I speed it up the picture gets all wonky.
by JI on May 23, 2008 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions
i don't know what's up?
Is there a good regular speed angle of this?
by JI on May 23, 2008 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Unfortunately no, it wasn't captured at regular speed
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
When I tinker with and get it up to a more correct speed
the image has black snow all over it.
I think you may want to find a better program.
by JI on May 23, 2008 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll poke around this weekend
Wonder if anyone’s torrented any of these programs…
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions
A few months ago I stole gum to see if I'd care
I didn’t
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I bit torrented Cannibal!
I may watch it if this game doesn’t go on forever.
by JI on May 23, 2008 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Also I gave this movie to a coworker for the weekend
I look forward to chatting with her on Tuesday.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Joey Cora sighting
Pop goes the buttsy on the left hand side!!
by PhilKenSebben on May 23, 2008 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Not yet
It comes out next week I think. I’ve got MGS3 – Subsistence going right now. Can’t afford a PS3 anyways. >:(
I knew it was one *something*.
...
Nah I just didn’t pay close attention since I don’t own the system, my bad
Just about anything > this
Except for you Ninjabread man, except for you.
Coldly devouring reason as if it were a delectable snack
by Frosty Raptor on May 23, 2008 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Sweet. He pulled a Raul..
More Vidro third!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
...and now I'm here
From The Associated Press:
McALLEN, Texas (AP)—During three years in the low minors, John Odom never really made a name for himself.That sure changed this week—he’s the guy who was traded for a bunch of bats.
“I don’t really care,” he said Friday. “It’ll make a better story if I make it to the big leagues.”
For now, Odom is headed to the Laredo Broncos of the United League. They got him Tuesday from the Calgary Vipers of the Golden Baseball League for a most unlikely price: 10 Prairie Sticks Maple Bats, double-dipped black, 34-inch, C243 style.
“They just wanted some bats, good bats—maple bats,” Broncos general manager Jose Melendez said.
Does anybody see a t-shirted Mac on the bench wearing a fake mustache?
Coldly devouring reason as if it were a delectable snack
Frak it
That would be Mac wearing the ‘stache, not the bench.
Coldly devouring reason as if it were a delectable snack
by Frosty Raptor on May 23, 2008 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm glad the STL game has a 7:40 start.
Now I can watch this game in it’s entirety and still go get dinner.
Okay so we will be 10.5 games back soon
Yay double digits!
This game just hurts
it is actually painful to watch
I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me.
13 runs on 13 hits for the Yankees
10 of those hits were singles
Wow
All of those runs were earned also
Crazy luck
Stuffed Duck
Coldly devouring reason as if it were a delectable snack
by Frosty Raptor on May 23, 2008 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Krueger making excuses about the teams Mariners are facing.
Must not be aware that Detroit is currently losing 8-4…
I don't like how that .gif is actually good and clear
):<
by Jeff Sullivan on May 23, 2008 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Just got back from Indiana Jones
All I have to say is: what the fuck, George Lucas. What the fuck.
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on May 23, 2008 8:21 PM PDT reply actions
I hate to say I told you so, but man, I saw this one coming.
He’s death to everything he touches at this point. He’s single-handedly trying to ruin every good thing he’s ever done in his life.
I loved it, actually
The Sci-fi elements didn’t bother me one bit. Name one Indiana Jones movie that hasn’t involved paranormal artifacts, why does it bother people so much that aliens replaced religious mysticism? Same thing, different time period.
Ichiro: Still hilarious
“Playing on this team and seeing what is happening around me, I feel that something is beginning to fall apart,’’ Ichiro said, through a translator. “But, if I was not in this situation, and I was objectively watching what just happened this week, I would probably be drinking a lot of beers and booing.’‘
by BrianL on May 23, 2008 8:54 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Ichiro deserves the Nobel Price for Awesome.
He seems like an awesome person to drink with.
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