Defensive Stat of the Day
by Matthew on May 22, 2008 1:24 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Stats
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PrintThe Mariners' "defense" are currently on pace to finish just under 90 plays below league average. Based on Tom Tango's work, those ~90 plays results, on average, in 143 extra batters faced. At a league average 3.8 pitches per PA, you end up with 545 more pitches thrown by your staff as a result of below average defense. Given that not making a play inherently means there is now a runner on base, those are all higher-than-average leveraged pitches too. That means, extra stress. All in all, it's roughly an additional 5-8 entire games that the Mariner pitching staff has to throw because people like John McLaren are "happy" with his outfield defense.
NB: I actually wrote this before I knew Graham was writing his post. Yes, we care about defense.
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...and infield defense.
McLaren is happy about his infield defense as well.
...and now I'm here
That is a really interesting observation
When you think about the defensive stats, you typically think oh, it is just a run here or there, but that is a really big toll on the pitchers.
If you break it down even further, at even a typical 14 pitches per inning, that comes out to an extra ~39 innings, or over 4 games extra. Wow.
I am more concerned over our pitchers mental health.
If you get a guy to hit a grounder or pop up, and your defense lets you down, won’t you eventually try to overthrow, or do something different? Maybe this is why Felix’s GB rate is down.
I like midgets more than I should.
Good point, that is probably a factor
“Well my defense can’t turn these balls in play into outs, I guess I just have to throw the ball past the batter..”
Because the outfield is so much better
):<
by Jeff Sullivan on May 22, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe he's throwing the high cheese trying to blow it past people to avoid it being in play at all.
I’m not implying that it’s working, I’m just concerned that he might be thinking that way.
I like midgets more than I should.
How bad is our defense historically?
Is it normal to have some really bad team defenses or are we just over the top bad?
Last year's Marlins and DRays were far worse
by Jeff Sullivan on May 22, 2008 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I really wish I had historical THT +/- data somehow
by Jeff Sullivan on May 22, 2008 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
No kidding
BP has DER data that you can use to search back a few years, but I’d rather have historical data at THT (+/- is better than raw DER).
Still, if you DO look at raw DER, you’ll see that the #1 defense this year is Baltimore – not exactly a rich team. You’ll also see the NY Yankees languishing near the bottom in 2003-04. And that probably understates just how bad those yankee teams were, with later-period Bernie Williams in CF, Jeter at SS, Soriano at 2b and Giambi at 1b. Yeah.
I think that shows that teams pay for offense at the expense of defense.
Teams would much rather be paying Jeter 20 million plus to play shortstop, instead of paying Omar Vizquel 5 mil.
I think it's more that teams don't factor in defense at all
It wasn’t that they HAD to get Bernie Williams’ ‘bat’ in the line-up. It’s just, he’d been there for 10 years…why think about a decision if you don’t have to? Pencil him in there! (fwiw, he hit .263/.367/.411 in ‘03)
In 2004, the Yankees starting 2b was one Miguel Cairo. Certainly, they weren’t doing that for offense. And they really can’t use the excuse that he was the only option; when you’re the Yankees, EVERYONE in baseball is an option. It just never occurred to them that they should give a shit about their DER. Then, suddenly, they figured out that they should (same with player development), and they’ve straightened things out.
One day, hopefully soon, we’ll do the same thing.
True, although I think it differs a bit between organizations.
Yankees knew they had Cano in the wings, which might have made the 2b decision easier.
In 2003, Cano had a sub-.700 OPS in the FSL
If, looking at that, the Yankees thought they could just punt on MLB defense in 2004, because, y’know, CANO… then that proves my point.
Besides, one of the things that we’re learning now (and the Yankees learned then) is that there’s zero excuse for this sort of thing. The Oakland A’s have a very good team defense despite no payroll. If you’re going into a ‘stopgap’ year at a position (like the M’s in 2007/08 with RF), then at least consider defense. If the guy isn’t a great hitter or isn’t in the long-term plans… for the sake of your staff, get someone who can field.
not this bad
Gillick seemed to be aware of the importance of defense, even if he didn’t deal with it quantitatively. The 2001 team was one of the best defensive teams ever assembled, led by an OF that had three legitimate CF at each position. The pitching staff was not a strikeout oriented pitching staff, and had strong flyball tendencies. But that blended well with the team’s defensive strengths.
The IF defense was also solid, with Olerud, Boone, a still young Guillen, Bell, and McLemore.
But the big story was the OF
by Steve Nelson on May 22, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I think I read on this site that our 2001 team was historically awesome at D though.
And gee, we won a historic number of games that year.
They couldn’t have anything at all to do with each other, could they?
The constants were Ichiro and Cameron.
2001 had who? Al Martin/Mark McLemore in left?
2003 had Winn?
And I was explaining why your clarification was relevant.
You’re far too willing to jump to conclusions.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Can you blame me? People around here seem to read each comment looking to take offense.
I just want to discuss it.
I always cast blame for poor reasoning.
I’m a trained logician.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
No, I just spent 6 years at University
learning how to be really annoyed with everyone around me.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
That's how long it took.
I was studying Astrophysics at the same time.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
There's so much I don't know about astrophysics
I wish I’d read that book by that wheelchair guy.
by The Beer Baron on May 22, 2008 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Well done.
I’d expect nothing less from someone with your screen name.
-aaron c.
by Aaron Campeau on May 22, 2008 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I keep planning on stealing his wheelchair
Would be so worth a sending down over.
by Graham MacAree on May 23, 2008 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions
according to bbref
Martin: 509 innings, Javier 395, McLemore 286
by JI on May 22, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
He needs more time on rafts.
Although that story turned out to be fiction.
I like midgets more than I should.
Yeah, the truth came out in some court case abou the "agent" who smuggled him out of Cuba.
He slept on a beach one night, and spent some time in a Mexican prison, but the whole “raft” story was just a cover-up.
I like midgets more than I should.
Shame about Yuni's defense.
Although are we sure good Yuni ever existed?
You might want to take a look at this chart.
You guys amaze me
I really don’t know how you can devote this much time to this team. And I mean this as a compliment. The Mariners don’t deserve to have such a good blog.
I agree, you have to give them credit for showing up here every day and putting in the effort.
Even though the house burned down weeks ago, they are still putting up fresh wallpaper on the walls in the basement.
See now this is why "Bloggers" can't be trusted
ESPN says that ESPN has the top (either us or Red Sox) defense in the AL. Clearly Matthew knows nothing. This just goes to show that statistics can say anything you want them to. It takes a true sports analyst like the professionals at ESPN to measure defense correctly.
http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com
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