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Ryan Braun Locked Up

Tiny by andrewgolfsalot on Comment 74 comments

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Today, the Brewers reached a deal with Ryan Braun to keep him in Milwaukee through 2015.

The deal is worth $45M starting this season, and lasts eight years.  It buys out two years of league minimum salaries, all three arbitration years, and three years of free agency.

Pretty good move by the Brew Crew, you'd think.  You'd have to believe he's a 6-8M/yr arbitration player, which means that if you assume he'd make more than 20-25M in his first three years as a free agent, it's a good investment for Milwaukee.

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I'm so excited for the day some other SBN has the title

Felix Hernandez allowed to test free agency by Mariners

followed by “why don’t the M’s lock up Felix? Why don’t the M’s lock up Felix? Why don’t the M’s lock up Felix” for 75 words

by seattlebruin on May 15, 2008 8:59 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Excellent

Good move, per usual.

Won’t be long now before free agency is nothing but a bunch of #5 starters and backup shortstops.

by Jeff on May 15, 2008 9:14 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are you ready for the M's to run out Brian Bocock as the SS in 2014

after signing him to a 4/$32M contract with a player option for a fifth year @$10M?

by seattlebruin on May 15, 2008 10:10 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can you imagine what the team would hit?

They’d probably combine for what .215/.290/.325 over 2800 ABs?

by seattlebruin on May 15, 2008 10:27 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think we need to remember these guys' contracts, too

Young – 5/70
Fahey – a bargain at 3/15
Bocock – 4/32 /w player option
Willie – 10/90 (do I need to make the contract longer?)
Pierzynski – 6/100

by seattlebruin on May 15, 2008 10:54 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think Willie gets a Wakefield-style rolling contract

With an option to become manager if/when he retires.

by Alex B on May 15, 2008 10:57 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we trade for Dimirti Young's current contract

to try to spark this team into contention, he is then rewarded appropriately

by JI on May 15, 2008 10:59 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When nobody else is interested in him

We always seem to be at out over-paying worst when there is no other team providing a benchmark contract offer.

by Alex B on May 15, 2008 10:13 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this buys out 2 FA years, not 3

he didn’t get enough service time last year so he was still 6 years away from FA.

by Matthew on May 15, 2008 9:22 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Funny

People were complaining about artificially keeping Clement’s and Wlad’s service time down and how it might hurt the M’s chances of signing them to big contracts. Ryan Braun is the poster boy for being held back over service time concerns, and that seems to have turned out well.

by Graham on May 15, 2008 9:27 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Value of the contract

It buys out 3 years at the minimum, for starters. So the rest of the deal is worth 43.8 million.

3 arbitration years are typically valued at about 30%, 50% and 70% of free agent salaries, adding up to 1.5 years of free agent salaries. In addition, the contract buys out 2 free agent years. So Braun is paid, in effect, $43.8 million for 3.5 years of free agent production. $12.5 million per season.

That’s not an outrageously club-favorable deal, actually.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 15, 2008 9:51 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

129 days? Hard to tell

If you think of Super Two as 20/40/60/80% of free agency, they actually paid for 4 years at basically $11 million a year. Better, but still not outrageous.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 15, 2008 10:16 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Keith Law

has said that the arbitrators do not consider it as 20/40/60/80 for Super 2 players actually, but rater 40 / 60 / 80 / 80.

Players are ranked according to their years of arby eligibility. Ie, first year guys with first year guys, 2nd year guys with 2nd year guys, 3rd and 4th guys lumped together.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 15, 2008 10:19 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He may say that...

but it just doesn’t square with what I’ve seen in terms of players’ earnings.

If what he says is correct, it would be 4.6 free agent years at $9.5M a year.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 15, 2008 10:23 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pre arby players earnings

do not square with the models of what they “should” earn anyways. Most of them are signing contracts before going to arby.

Also, Ryan Howard’s arby award supports his point. Given that he’s likely to have been aware of the details involved in arby hearings when he was with the BJs, I see no reason why he’s either wrong or lying.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 15, 2008 10:27 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The pre arby contracts that players

are signing will likely be less than what they “should” earn, because they are taking less money now, instead of more money in the future.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 15, 2008 10:29 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am just not a fan of these deals

Pre-arbitration deals just don’t appeal to me unless the player is pure gold a la Justin Upton. I always remember the Eric Hinkse deal and the disaster it was for the Blue Jays since he was being paid too much to bench and he was playing just decent enough that they couldn’t focus on replacing him. The Curtis Granderson was the one I thought was the worst but Braun has some serious holes in his game. I am not saying that this deal couldn’t be fantastic, but Braun doesn’t walk, his strikeout rate certainly isn’t low , and he is a miserable defender. His Rookie year and skill set reminds me a Ruben Sierra. I am just not crazy about this and the trend of these types of deals

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on May 15, 2008 3:06 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No I really don't like the Granderson contract

Detroit inked him to. Here is something I wrote about it at the time
http://prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?t=188241

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on May 15, 2008 5:19 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't get it

Given his ability, position, and defense, Granderson is a superstar. He’s exactly the kind of player a team should be looking at locking up long-term. To a T. Like, hands down.

And as for Hinske, if you sign every 24 year old rookie with a 119 OPS+ to a long-term contract, you’re going to be better off way more often than not. The fact that one guy busted doesn’t mean anything.

by Jeff on May 15, 2008 5:59 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Then I guess we are at an impasse

because while you see a the positives you mentioned, I see a 27 year old who is basically maxed out in projection, who strikesout a but load, can’t hit lefties, and isn’t going to hit 23 triples to pad his slugging % every year. I don’t think Granderson is as good as he hit last year and I believe that the Tigers would have been served better just to keep him for the next 4 years and let him walk at 31 years old

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on May 15, 2008 11:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But he would probably cost just as much over the next four years anyway.

The arb years are going to run you a lot of money anyway if a player is putting up Granderson-like numbers. I don’t think you’re going to save much - if anything - by going year-to-year with a guy of his talent level.

And, as several people have mentioned, there aren’t many center fielders with Granderson’s range.

The platoon issue is a serious one, though. I’ll definitely agree with you there.

by Teej on May 16, 2008 3:12 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK,

here’s Granderson’s contract: 08:$1M, 09:$3.5M, 10:$5.5M, 11:$8.25M, 12:$10M, 13:$13M club option ($2M buyout)

He has 2 years of service. So they would have had him in 2008 regardless. So the contract is more 09:$4.5M,
10:$5.5M, 11: $8.25M, 12: $10M.

09 would be his first arby year. That means the FA value of $4.5M would be $11.25M. 10 would be his 2nd arby year
the FA value of $5.5M would be 9.16M. 11 would be his 3rd arby year, which means FA value of $8.25M would be $10.3125M.
So, the FA value of that $30.25M / 5 contract is actually, $11.25M + $9.16M + $10.312M + $10M = $40.72M /4.

That is what a about 1 win above average player gets. Let’s assume that 2007 was a complete and utter fluke and that Granderson will never approach that exalted level of performance. Throw it out of the window. Let’s assume rather that 2006 is representative of his “true talent” level. Using Batting Runs above average from Baseball Prospectus
Granderson was 2 runs below average in 2006, EQA of 258.In 2006, UZR had Granderson at 18 runs above average defensively. In 2007, UZR also had him at 18 runs above average. RZR had him at 38 runs above average in 2007, zone rating 9 runs.

So let’s assume his offense is 2 runs below average. Let’s consevatively project his defense at 10 runs above average. That comes out to about 1 win above average.

So, even assuming

a 27 year old who is basically maxed out in projection, who strikesout a but load, can’t hit lefties, and isn’t going to hit 23 triples to pad his slugging % every year
, even using a conservative projection, that contract would still be fair value for the Tigers.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 16, 2008 7:03 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Granderson is mega

That guy’s pure speed pads his power numbers alone, let alone gives him incredible range in CF and makes him a super-threat on the bases. A guy like that has top-shelf value.

by Gomez on May 15, 2008 6:56 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What was the Hinske deal worth

5/14???

I think that’s an acceptable risk.

by JI on May 15, 2008 4:08 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If it were just the money

That would be one thing, but it isn’t just the money, it is also the commitment that was what really made the deal awful for the Jays. You look at Hinske’s 2003 after signing the contract he hit .243/.329/.473. It is a line that is below average for an offensive position like 3rd base but tolerable enough that a team can say “we are committed to him, lets see what happens next year” The next year he was worse, the year after he was better but his mediocrity plus his contract hamstrung the Jays from being able to search for better options all the while his salary continued to escalate making it so they can’t trade him either.

My opinion is to wait until arbitration so you have a better picture of what you have in a player. So that way you not going to be committed to whoever when they show their value isn’t really that good.

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on May 15, 2008 5:26 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Players get more expensive the closer they get to arb.

Yeah you lose some, but I would bet you’ll win may more than you’ll lose.

by JI on May 15, 2008 7:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I understand the concept

I just don’t agree that teams are going to win as many as they lose

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on May 15, 2008 11:38 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You can't be serious

these are the best contracts in baseball.

by Jeff on May 16, 2008 1:01 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think we need the voice of experience to settle this debate

Here’s what Pat “Foresight” Gillick had to say when asked about locking up Cole Hamels:

“If at some point, if he’s performing to the level, you’re going to have to talk multiyear at some point. These guys, maybe they are smarter giving guys eight-year deals. I don’t know. I mean, what is a great deal? At the time, it might be a great deal. Especially if a pitcher comes up with a bad arm, they aren’t in a great deal. If a guy doesn’t perform, it isn’t a great deal.”

What fantastic analysis.

by Alex B on May 16, 2008 1:14 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't agree

These are only the best contracts in baseball because of the lack of leverage by the players. If you want to get literal about the subject the “best contracts in baseball” are contract renewals for league minimum for players like Prince Fielder. I personally think a team has more to gain my keeping these players at pre-arbitration salaries and signing others players at complimentary positions then to risk singing these players to contracts with like Eric Hinkse where they are left to sink or float on their own.

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on May 17, 2008 3:11 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wait, you want to pay your

young players pre arby salaries, which means that once they hit arby you would have to let them go, but then you want to sign “complementary” players? At FA rates? Why do you think that complementary players at FA rates are better risks?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 17, 2008 6:56 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let's see,

here are Hinske’s year by year EQAs from 2003-2007, the duration of the contract: 267, 241, 271, 272, 255. Here are the average EQAs for 3b during that period: 257, 268, 265, 269, 269.

So, out of the 5 years, Hinske was below the 3b average in 2 years, above average in 3 years.

And his salary was $14.5M. The year by year breakdown: 03:$0.5M, 04:$0.8M, 05:$3M, 06:$4.325M, 07:$5.625M. The BJs payroll during that same period: $51M, $50M, $46M, $72M, $82M.

My opinion is to wait until arbitration so you have a better picture of what you have in a player. So that way you not going to be committed to whoever when they show their value isn’t really that good.

So, in your opinion, the Yankees made the correct decision when they waited to get a better picture on Derek Jeter?Should the Mets have waited an extra year before signing Jose Reyes to a long term deal? Should the Mets have waited an extra year before signing David Wright to a long term deal? How much more would the Mets have had to give Wright if they had tried to sign Wright after 2007, instead of after 2006?

Yes, there are risks to signing these arby buyout contracts. There are also risks to not signing these arby buyout contracts.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on May 16, 2008 7:20 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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