So about these Griffey rumors...

by Karma Police on May 13, 2008 5:00 PM PDT Comment 55 comments

Has anyone heard anything about who might be going to Cincinnati? Its probably still very rough at this point, but do the Reds have a need that one of our available guys could fill? any speculation?

I could see Baek or Morrow or Lowe go. Rob Johnson maybe? reed?

75 word fun fact: Miguel Cairo still has a job. playing baseball. major league baseball. on the seattle mariners. playing first base. batting second. miguel cairo.

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No way they give up Morrow.

by redwolf75 on May 13, 2008 5:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't find that fact fun.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on May 13, 2008 5:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No names but if it's anyone better than garbage it's a colossal failure on our part

by Jeff on May 13, 2008 6:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Morrow Lol? Uhhh a first round pick for an old outfielder?

NO GRIFFEY PLZ

by vkut79 on May 13, 2008 6:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Remember what we got in return for Moyer

Probably something similar to that is my guess.

by Edgar for Pres on May 13, 2008 7:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

But... OUR GM is Bavasi

Never again.

by qrsouther on May 13, 2008 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He'll help us win the Strasburg race

Especially if he plays defense. Plus those ten or so homers he’d hit would be exciting for me. As long as we give up no value this is good. Especially if he sucks and we don’t re-sign him next year

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on May 13, 2008 8:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

However, you have to assume he's taking playing time from Clement and/or Wlad.

In which case he’s not worth it. Those guys need playing time more than anything.

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on May 13, 2008 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm okay with trading some C-level talent for Griffey

Shipping Feier or Johnson to Ohio makes sense to me.

He isn’t going to be great by any means, but he’ll be exciting to watch (sorry Jeff) and will be better than Vidro at DH. Or they’ll stick him in LF and he’ll provide slightly better defense than Raul. Either way I’m satisfied.

The artist formerly known as Katal

by Katal LM on May 13, 2008 8:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

But Vidro isn't the DH anymore.

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on May 13, 2008 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Barring some sort of 1B epiphany

adding Griffey either means Johjima gets benched (unlikely), Clement gets benched, or Balentien gets benched.

by Jeff on May 13, 2008 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's just trade Richie for him then... =(

by seattlebruin on May 13, 2008 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I like about you...

you’re a dreamer.

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on May 13, 2008 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what all the girls tell me

by seattlebruin on May 13, 2008 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But he's not the only one.

He hopes someday you will join him.

by BrianL on May 13, 2008 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then the world will live as one.

But before that, we need to hold the Bed-in for Peace, right? Boy, that’s gonna be awkward.

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on May 14, 2008 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention that whoever draws the short straw

has to marry Yoko Ono.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on May 14, 2008 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And then share a single plum floating in perfume served in a man's hat.

by Jed MC on May 14, 2008 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yoo-hoo-oo-oo-oo

by qrsouther on May 15, 2008 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Based on comments by Bavasi

Clement and Balentien don’t have their slots locked up. Bavasi likes what he sees out of Wlad but thinks Clement is pressing a bit.

So say if we ended up getting Griffey now, Clement would be the odd-man out.

by ThundaPC on May 13, 2008 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clement could always go back and work on his catching.

Then replace Johjima in 20…......... sorry, I just realized there was way too much optimism for competence in this comment.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on May 13, 2008 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, you know what?

Get Griffey and send both Clement and Balentien back to AAA for a couple weeks somehow until we recover that year of team control.

Yeah!

by Jeff on May 13, 2008 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This would be basically the best thing ever

by Graham on May 14, 2008 12:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The 10-day rule would pretty much cover that, I think...

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on May 14, 2008 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I might be ok with

Johjima, Clement, and Wlad getting their playing time cut by 33% each.

by Edgar for Pres on May 13, 2008 9:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

For Griffey? Really? I can understand Joh, but Wlad and Clement?

It’s not like this season means anything. Let the kids play.

by SethGrandpa on May 13, 2008 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I want to believe it'll only take a couple B or C level players

It should only take that much. That really is, at most, what Griffey is really worth.

But I have a bad, educational-guess-motivated feeling the Reds will demand an A level prospect coughtriunfelcough and two others or no deal, and Bavasi will cave.

by Gomez on May 13, 2008 10:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you underestimate "The Negotiator"

by Fin on May 13, 2008 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

uh, no

there is no way triunfel gets shipped for griffey.

by ASUBoyd on May 14, 2008 4:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, they won't send Triunfel, but all the foxsports 'news' reports

are predicting this total selloff for the Reds and how they need to get some talent back for their high dollar guys. Don’t blame them, buuuut I also don’t want to give much.
In a dream world we give them our org ‘un-useables”. The Feirieier’s, the Reed’s, the Cairo’s, so fully expect a Jimenez/Johnson for Griff.

I have a cousin with 1 testicle, when they yell play ball, he smiles.

by Montucky on May 14, 2008 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Even if Cincy says, “Triunfel or no deal?” and the M’s are desperate to deal for him?

by Gomez on May 14, 2008 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My father will enjoy watching Felix in a Cincinnati Reds uniform

Determined, Jonesing Commentor

by I'm NOT Corco on May 13, 2008 11:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

How does it make sense at all to get Griffey in a completely lost season?

by vkut79 on May 13, 2008 11:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That's the only time it makes sense.

Griffey isn’t good enough to be on a winning team anymore.

This is a matter of ticket sales, not winning.

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on May 13, 2008 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've never heard of a player being signed just for ticket sales and not helping the team win

That’s my issue with that theory, although it makes sense.

by vkut79 on May 13, 2008 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

not a ton though

at $16m/yr, say he brings in an extra 5,000 per game for 14 days, and that’s being way optimistic I think given the way the Mariners are playing. At an average ticket price of 25+15, so say the average head spends $40 at Safeco (and again, I think that’s optimistic), what is that, $2.8 million? That seems to me like the absolute best case scenario and that doesn’t even come close to offsetting the 10 million dollars or so we’d owe him in salary

Determined, Jonesing Commentor

by I'm NOT Corco on May 13, 2008 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

hell, even if I'm even more optimistic and say the average head spends $60, that's still $4,2

but a lot of the big spenders are season ticket holders and paid for their seats anyway. Any extra revenue is likely coming from cheap seats

Determined, Jonesing Commentor

by I'm NOT Corco on May 13, 2008 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Basically

with 55 home games remaining if we acquired him June 1st, we’d still owe him about $10.8 million so to break even on that you have to profit at $40 a head, you’d have to average 4900 extra fans a GAME for every game from June 1st out to break even.

At $50, 3900 fans
At $60, 3300 fans

That’s a lot of butts.

I just don’t see how the team could possibly make money acquiring Griffey this early in the year, short of getting the Reds to pay a good chunk of salary, which would mean we’d have to give up more than we want to

So if we get Griffey I expect us to overpay for him in talent

Determined, Jonesing Commentor

by I'm NOT Corco on May 13, 2008 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well... Not really.

His first week will draw 15,000 more at least per day, if not more. Maybe even his first two weeks. Let’s say 12 games at 15,000 extra fans (and again, considering the current turnout, that may be lowballing it), you get 180,000 extra fans. Divide that by 55 games and you have an average of 3272 fans per game if 0 extra fans come after the 2nd week on.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on May 14, 2008 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You think Griffey is really going to draw 15 thousand extra fans for two weeks straight?

I just don’t see that happening.

Determined, Jonesing Commentor

by I'm NOT Corco on May 14, 2008 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The reasoning behind that is because it's not like when Griffey came back last year

when ticket purchasers knew well in advance that Griffey was coming and were able to buy tickets. When Griffey comes t his year, it will be via trade and nobody will know what day he’s coming back. People have lives and aren’t going to block out their evenings for the next four months just in case Griffey comes back, so I expect it to be more of a steady trickle where 5000 or so people per game come to see him then 15000 extra day of game sales. I just don’t see that happening

Determined, Jonesing Commentor

by I'm NOT Corco on May 14, 2008 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno, I could see it happening

I’d feel different if i didn’t go to the Griffey game last year, but considering how huge of a deal everyone made of it and the fact that they were actually cheering for Feieierararabend to fail…

not that i think its a smart move but if we continue sucking like this, having Griffey could be a huge jolt of excitement in an otherwide depressing and boring season, and i think people would really go out of their way to see him as soon as possible

by Karma Police on May 14, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

Sort of. I’m willing to lower that number for two reasons:

Depending on the team they play (eg, the Yankees) it is impossible for him to bring in 15,000 extra fans. So if he was traded before a series with them, then no, I don’t think that.

Also, weekends vary for the same reason, though I could see ~10,000 on good days.

But series like those we had against Texas I could see a lot. 15,000? Maybe not as I hadn’t considered the two parts above. But if you don’t think some 10,000 or so people in Seattle with nothing to do one evening would go see him play in a Mariner uniform, I simply disagree.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on May 14, 2008 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only for the first two weeks of course.

So I do need to lower my number. But I think it would be a substantial amount, considering. And then he’d only need to average ~2-3,000 the rest of the season to meet your numbers, which is doable.

I’m conceding that you are right, my numbers are high, because I hadn’t considered the amount of people that could fit in Safeco.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on May 14, 2008 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My argument was oversimplified, as well.

It’s not just ticket sales – it’s jerseys and other paraphenalia as well. I don’t know how many dollars that actually adds, but it must be some, right?

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on May 14, 2008 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs