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Hey You Know Whose Defense Sucks? Ours

Tiny by Jeff on in The More You Know

Updated THT team page:

Teamdefense5_12_medium

To date, the Mariners have turned 19 fewer balls in play into outs than you'd expect given their groundballs/fly balls/line drives against. This has cost them ~15 runs and goes a long way towards explaining why the team ERA is higher than the team FIP despite a pretty good strand rate and a better-than-average number of infield flies. That's really bad.

Not convinced that defense matters? While screwing around at one point over the weekend, Matthew and I saw that the difference in BABIP against for the 2001 and 2007 Mariners was 57 points. Over a full season, 57 points of BABIP equals about 250 balls in play, or somewhere between 175-200 runs. 175-200 runs. From defense alone. Now, granted, the 2001 Mariners were kind of historically awesome with the glove, but the difference between even just a "normal" good and a "normal" bad defense can easily be 6-10 wins. That's huge. Just look at the Rays' turnaround - this sort of thing can make a world of difference.

Team defense is the most underrated aspect of the game today. I'm not sure exactly how many organizations "get it", but the Mariners very clearly do not, and it's killing them on the field. These guys don't score nearly enough runs to be able to justify giving them away for free with bad defense.

God dammit Yuni.

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That's bad.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phildopip on May 12, 2008 1:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We're not the worst!

We’re not the worst! We’re not the worst!

by seattlebruin on May 12, 2008 12:58 PM PDT   0 recs

I totally agree with this

“Team defense is the most underrated aspect of the game today.”

This is so completely true. I think it’s hard to really understand, because it’s not always correlated with specific players who get a lot of chances. Some of it (though less than I used to think) is probably luck, too. But we’re now in year two of abysmal defense, just as the Blue Jays and others are right at their customary spot at the top. Some teams clearly do get this.

Two other observations:
1) the magnitude of the Rays’ improvement is tough to overstate. They went from once-in-a-decade awful to above average. I’d love to see how many runs/wins they save at the end of this year – it could be in the neighborhood of 10-15 WINS.
2) The Giants knew they had a bad offense this year, and so they threw guys like Brian Bocock into the line-up to at least safeguard their defense. Ooops. This says that many teams still view the key to team defense is having a a shortstop who makes the occasional flashy play :whistles, looks around:. It also shows how important black holes in a defense can be, even in positions that get fewer chances, like left field or 3b. The Giants traded a decent fielding 3B (who scouts hated) and replaced him with Jose Castillo, who makes Justin Leone look like Brooks Robinson. In summary, the Giants are basically the Mariners, and… LEONE FOR THIRD!

by marc w on May 12, 2008 1:06 PM PDT   0 recs

Going strictly by BABIP (which obviously isn't perfect but whatever)

were the Rays to keep up their current pace, their 2008 defense would be 248 plays better than their 2007 defense would be with the same pitching staff. Using the 1 play = 0.8 runs standard, that’s nearly 200 runs, which is nearly 20 wins.

20 wins.

by Jeff on May 12, 2008 1:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Fred McGriff.

Or Wade Boggs.

Or fucking Miguel Cairo.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phildopip on May 12, 2008 1:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Do they?

Clearly getting Bartlett in the Garza deal helped a ton. But I don’t know – I mean, maybe so, but I don’t think promoting Longoria had to do w/his defense. And maybe they knew that Iwamura, who was a bad defensive 3b last year would be a good defensive 2b this year…. but maybe not.

I like ‘em, and things have worked out, but I’m not totally convinced that they were all planned out.

by marc w on May 12, 2008 1:27 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I kinda covered this

http://www.draysbay.com/2008/5/11/507490/36-games-in-our-mvp-s-are

Thief!

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 1:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Defense wins championships.

(first non-ironic usage in memory)

by JI on May 12, 2008 1:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe not championships, but...

Look at the “surprise” teams and their Def. Eff. rankings:
2007 Rockies: .703 2006 Rockies: .690
2006 Tigers .712 2005 Tigers: .704
2005 White Sox .720 2004 White Sox .701

Those shocker teams all saw at least some jump in Def. Eff, and naturally a great defense combined with the right type of pitcher for that defense (so for Webb, good infield defense) can make magic happen.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:05 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It might not have all been planned

but I wasn’t speaking solely in terms of team defense. The Rays get how to build baseball teams. I’m never more sure of it than I am after this past weekend.

by Matthew on May 12, 2008 1:32 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well there's a teaser

tell me more of this newfound certainty.

Which moves were made specifically to improve the defense (aside from the Bartlett acquisition)?

by marc w on May 12, 2008 1:38 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I wouldn't say any other moves were made specifically for the defense

but defense is a factor in pretty much every position player decision they make. As it should be.

by Jeff on May 12, 2008 1:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If this is true

how did they manage to assemble the worst defense in baseball last year? How did they decide that Brendan Harris was a good SS option, and then think that a good replacement would be Josh Wilson? If they knew Iwamura was a decent IF option, why did they set him up to fail at 3b? Who, seeing that the guy was a much worse fielding 3b than Eric Freakin’ Hinske says, “what we need to do is move him to an up-the-middle defensive spot?”

I guess the larger question is, how does defense factor in every decision? Is it a scouting thing?

by marc w on May 12, 2008 1:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Again

The Rays had every intent of moving Aki to second. What you ignore is that the Rays actually had B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist playing SS/2B early on last year after Upton had failed at third base and before he moved to the outfield.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 1:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, and those guys totally sucked defensively

The Rays have tried 25 different combinations, and all of them have been various shades of putrid. Now, they’ve rolled the dice again and come up winners. Ok, that’s cool, and my hat is off to them. But I’m not yet convinced that they won because they’re supergeniuses. These are the same supergeniuses who used Zobrist/Harris/Wilson at SS and Upton at 2b and Iwamura at 3b LAST YEAR. This can’t be blamed on Chuck LaMar.

by marc w on May 12, 2008 1:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Aki wasn't that bad at third base imo

But maybe those are my homer glasses, he just had balls go over his head and throw the short/third gap a lot.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 1:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm looking at the THT stats

and he was, statistically, the worst 3b in the American league last year.

by marc w on May 12, 2008 2:00 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Homer glasses then.

It seemed like Wiggy/Harris were far worse at their jobs, but I won’t argue that he wasn’t below average at best.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

My answer would be that it takes a while to undo Chuck LaMar

Friedman & co. have only been around for so long, and for the first few years they didn’t have any kind of opportunity to win. However, they recognized that the window was about to open, and as such they’ve now built an actual baseball team. Until now it was just a bunch of stopgaps and tryouts as they bided their time.

As for defense factoring into every decision, I don’t say that because I know for sure – I just say that because I’ve been assured time and time again the the Rays are the smartest front office in baseball, and I imagine the smartest front office in baseball understands the importance of defense.

by Jeff on May 12, 2008 1:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Chuck LaMar is a Bad Man

but he’s not responsible for the Rays defense in 2007 (at least not directly). We’re not talking about a gradual change here, we’re talking about a 20 win difference OVER NIGHT. This is either the best plan ever, or it’s a lot of luck. Given the overlap here, I’m thinking luck has a lot to do with it. Again, that doesn’t make them a stupid FO, but this is the SAME FO that trotted out the worst defense in a generation last year.

by marc w on May 12, 2008 1:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well,

It seems to me that a smart FO would be ok with fielding a crappy defence under the following conditions:

1) If they’re unable to compete that year and
2) If rapid roster turnover is possible.

by Graham on May 12, 2008 2:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

perhaps

but you’d think a really smart FO would be able to get replacement level production given three cracks at it. Park adjusted and factoring in defense, I’m not sure they got that from anyone at SS/2B last year. sub .300 OBP PLUS historically bad defense? Wow! That’s Bocockian, right there.

They were unable to compete last year, and if I’m crediting them with anything, it’s the biggest rope-a-dope in baseball history. I wonder if fielders were instructed not to chase balls headed into the hole.

I just think a smart FO tries to show progress and reward their young pitching staff. If the Rays really did punt 15 games last year due to defense, I just don’t see how that can be called smart. The best we can say is that they maximized their output given the players they had available, but that still doesn’t work, at least at SS. I don’t know.

by marc w on May 12, 2008 2:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

They may have been instructed not to

I mean, at some point seeing the ball roll by you after going as hard as you can gets old. Ask Harris/Wigginton/Cantu.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm wondering if Sexson didn't get told this

he doesn’t even move laterally anymore. At all. He was abysmal last year, and may be worse now.

by marc w on May 12, 2008 2:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It takes a while to undo other people's mistakes

you have to play with what you’re given.

You don’t think it’s any coincidence they traded Young for a competant SS?

by JI on May 12, 2008 2:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

No, that's great

But 20 wins difference didn’t come from that move, as important as it was.

by marc w on May 12, 2008 2:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, I wouldn't say that Bartlett was the key focus of the deal

To be fair, we were looking at Lincecum and Adam Miller (got offered Cliff Lee) and while I’m guessing a shortstop or two may have also been mentioned I think the Rays would’ve been okay getting someone like Adam Everett at a later point if Lincecum for Delmon is an option.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree, but at the same time he wasn't the key piece

The Twins tried offering Bonser (and others) instead of Garza and the Rays were pretty deadset on getting him.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes

So would I. Again, SS was a massive, oozing chest wound and they fixed it cheaply and effectively. But because the wound was so obvious, I’m not sure it takes amazing Mental Powers to make an upgrade. What I don’t really get is how moving Iwamura and Upton have worked out so freaking well. Hmm, you guys have failed at easier positions; let’s make your job tougher…. and then it works.

by marc w on May 12, 2008 2:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Player toolsets

And trust me, Upton pisses me off because he still makes mistakes, but like Carl he makes up for them with speed, and he has a cannon for an arm.

Iwamura has grand range, it was just a matter of getting him in position to play it, he actually said he was the best shortstop on the team, but apparently the Rays wouldn’t let him move mid-season last year.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Question:

How did Crawford not end up in centerfield?

by JI on May 12, 2008 2:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He refuses to bat leadoff/play center.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

This is one of the issues with Carl

He’s a relatively quiet (nationally at least) guy, but he’s got some attitude himself. Essentially he refuses to play center and bat lead off.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

They could

But at the same time B.J. said he would only agree to move to CF if that was the last move he’d make.

So essentially we’re going to have a CF playing LF and a RF playing CF for the next few years until Upton likely bolts for a record setting deal.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You could always trade everybody.

(see my baseball Mogul strategy)

by JI on May 12, 2008 2:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I can maybe understand not wanting to hit leadoff

but not wanting to play CF seems kind of strange to me…

by seattlebruin on May 12, 2008 2:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He doesn't "feel comfortable" in center.

The Rays even lowered the left field wall so he could make “Torii Hunter plays” and get his name out there more.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh and as for leading off

Carl sees himself as a middle of the order guy, and has said he’d love to play in a “homerun ballpark”.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, I could very well understand that type of thing

and it’s not like he doesn’t have any power anyway.

The CF thing is still weird to me, because Torii Hunter is a CF, and aren’t all the big name defensive OFs playing center?

by seattlebruin on May 12, 2008 2:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, I don't really get his point.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The Mariners could use a good defensive leftfielder.

Plus I’ve always wanted a player I could call “Hot Carl.”

by JI on May 12, 2008 2:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Carl for Ichiro and Putz?

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd rather trade Clement for Crawford

than I would Brian Fuentes.

by JI on May 12, 2008 2:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah seriously.

I had no idea. What a prick.

Felix Hernandez may be The King, but Justin Upton is a GOD.

"I eagerly await the day when I can shit in the living room"
~Robert

by Goose on May 12, 2008 2:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh I know this one!

Hacking on the first pitch and refusing to walk!

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Didn't know that one, sorry.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 12, 2008 2:28 PM PDT to parent up