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Five Questions: Tampa Bay

As part of my effort to make peace with our eventual overlords, I recently exchanged five questions with RJ Anderson of DRaysBay. Read his answers and be prepared to recite them from memory in the future like the good little bandwagon Rays fan that you are (or, if you aren't, that you ought to be).

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First and foremost, what's the status of Scott Kazmir? Are there any concerns that his elbow problem could come back with a vengeance? I've been one of the guys leading the charge onto the Rays bandwagon, but a struggling Kazmir obviously makes them that much worse.

He's feeling good now. His personal timetable is sometime around the last week of April, and I think the team will allow him to slot in right around there between James Shields and Matt Garza. As for his elbow of course there are concerns, it was one of the chief reasons the Mets traded him -- the other being his party life and their stupidity -- and while his case has added merit, you have to remember the Rays have had a total of one pitcher undergo UCL reconstruction/Tommy John surgery since 2005 and that was Wade Townsend who needed it out of college.

What's the atmosphere like in and around Tampa Bay, what with the team looking good in both the short- and long-terms for the first time in franchise history? Is there a lot of excitement, or are people kind of waiting around to find out, or what?  

Cautiously optimistic. You see a lot more of the new gear then I can remember previously seeing. For good reason too, the new hat has a more classic feel and cosmetically just looks better than the previous versions. The team has a few star players now with Crawford, Kazmir, Shields, Upton , Pena, and even Iwamura, and the Rays have done a nice job building the brand up from baseball purgatory, so I suppose you can say the atmosphere is the best it's been in quite a while.

In your honest opinion, do you think Tampa Bay 's a good baseball market? The Rays are clearly in it for the long haul, what with the new stadium plans, but how much enthusiasm is there in the area? How much enthusiasm could there be given a winner?  

Right now I don't think it's a good market, but I think it can develop into one. It's hard to believe but the only baseball this area has seen professionally was spring training, so outside of the last few years there haven't been people growing up with a true home team to root for. As these youngsters -- the fans that is -- grow up with memories of Eduardo Perez homering off of Mariano Rivera, or Jared Sandberg hitting two homeruns in one inning, or even Carl Crawford stealing home you'll see a legitimate fan base grow alongside the bandwagon fans and frontrunners if the team is winning. Right now you have the transitioning of teams, as the fans here see that they have a real baseball team in their backyard (just add water!) with a beautiful waterfront stadium a lot of these Yankee/Red Sox fans will begin turning into Rays fans, assuming the product is good, and if the product is good this area will take to it, just look at the Buccaneers and Lightning selling out for years at a time.

What does it feel like to follow a team that's finally being run by a competent front office? Seriously. I want to know. Hook a brother up.  

I feel for you, but we're just now finishing cleaning up the mess. God bless Chuck LaMar's draft classes, otherwise we'd be in a worse position than Baltimore. On the bright side you have Felix, Bedard, Ichiro, Putz, and fans like Red running around, that’s pretty awesome.

James Shields: the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Present your argument why or why not.  

He averaged 6.9 innings per start last year, tying him for third with Brandon Webb and giving us a hope despite having an awful bullpen. Threw 5.11 strikeouts per walk, just behind C.C. Sabathia, has a goatee, never gets hurt. Oh and his version of change makes Barack Obama piss himself.

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My answers to his questions are currently posted over at DRB, so give them a look if you're so inclined. And don't feel bad if the M's go on to get smoked in this series. For the first time in history, there are worse things than getting steamrolled by Tampa Bay.

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I look forward to a DBacks/Rays World Series in 2010.

If Pinocchio has a cocaine problem and he lies about it, does that make it worse?

by Goose on Apr 7, 2008 8:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Battle of the double Ds...

Wait, that wouldn't apply anymore, damn. Maybe just battle of the 1998 expansion brothers.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." - Robert S. Weider

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 7, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Anyhow, thanks Jeff for having me and I wouldn't be shocked if you take the series. At least Bedard vs. Garza should be fun.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." - Robert S. Weider

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 7, 2008 8:24 PM PDT reply actions  

Great stuff all around...

I particularly liked this, from Jeff:

Bill Bavasi's track record would be nearly spotless if you could take out all his moves and replace them with other moves.

by Patrick517 on Apr 7, 2008 8:27 PM PDT reply actions  

One question though

can you really put Jones ahead of Young because of performance? I know that Delmon didn't exactly set the league on fire last year, but it seems odd to put him below Jones on the basis of performance, given that Jones never really had an opportunity to show how he'd perform if he played regularly..

by abelard on Apr 7, 2008 8:34 PM PDT reply actions  

Except he has

done exactly what Jones did in AAA, only in AA at 19. He was in line for the Southern League (a league that favors pitchers) triple crown when he was called up to AAA. He had a .336 average, and .582 slg%. He absolutely killed the ball in 05. And at 20, in AAA, essentially had the same stats as Jones. The difference in perception is that Delmon struggled for much of the year in the big leagues last year, while Jones only struggled (although he was worse than Delmon) for 30 games.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Apr 7, 2008 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

And though you're wrong about Delmon, anyone who calls his manager a sensi is ok by me!!! I think Maddon definitely qualifies a sensi too. But he, like JD, doesn't hide it!

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Apr 7, 2008 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's more or less

what I was going to say. I looked at the projections and (ignoring Bill James), they all spit out OPSs in the mid .700s for both players (except ZiPS, which is really high on Jones). I don't really follow minor league projections, but I was surprised to see Jones>Bedard>Delmon.

by abelard on Apr 7, 2008 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Okay, how about this:

AJ has had extraordinary success at a higher level than Delmon so far. Obviously the fact that Delmon spent 2007 in the Majors kind of makes comparison more difficult, but right now I think you have to give AJ the offensive edge.

Plus, AJ's a good glove in center. Even if you think Young has the better bat, he loses that edge by having to play a corner.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

That works for me

but I'd probably rather go Jones and Young over Bedard over the next decade.

by abelard on Apr 7, 2008 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

I couldn't really convince myself either way about Bedard or Young, so I just favored the guy who's had the best recent performance. I could be easily persuaded, though.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is excellent.

I hope the Rays make the playoffs.

Free Barry Bonds

by JI on Apr 7, 2008 9:06 PM PDT reply actions  

only if they fix the logo though

It looks like my dad made it in MSPaint

Free Barry Bonds

by JI on Apr 7, 2008 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

The logo and color scheme have grown on me

they'll look great on the shirt and/or hat I'm going to buy.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

The unis look great.

They're good rip-offs of what the Padres have.

The logo still sucks.

Free Barry Bonds

by JI on Apr 7, 2008 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

I thought they were cool to begin with.

And I haven't changed my mind. I'm wearing the home hat right now, as a matter of fact. I like simplicity, and I like blue. So I'm happy.

by Teej on Apr 8, 2008 2:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

If a team has to beat us

I'd rather it be the Rays. I've been married to the Mariners for nearly twenty years, but Tampa is young and sexy.

The artist formerly known as Katal

by Katal LM on Apr 7, 2008 9:49 PM PDT reply actions  

Just for fun: The Seattle Bay Rayiners

C - Johjima
1B - Pena
2B - Iwamura
SS - Betancourt
3B - Beltre
LF - Crawford
CF - Upton
RF - Ichiro!
DH - Ibanez
-----------------
MIF - Lopez ('08 version)
4th OF - Wilkerson
C - Navarro
CIF - Morse
5th OF - Floyd
-----------------
SP Bedard
SP Hernandez
SP Kazmir
SP Shields
SP Sonnanstine
----------------
RP Putz
RP Lowe
RP EOF
RP Reyes
RP RRS
RP Green

by Matthew on Apr 7, 2008 9:59 PM PDT reply actions  

Umm

Sonnanstine doesn't make the team. Garza is 100x better than Sonnanstine. And IMO, there are at least 4 pitchers in the minors for the Rays that will be better than him by the end of the season if they don't get hurt.

This is a minor quibble, but I'd slot Bedard behind the King and Kazmir. Sure, he was better last year by a little bit, but Kaz struggled most of the first half because the Rays made him move to the other side of the pitching rubber. Once he went back to where he previously stood, his ERA was 2.39 and his WHIP was 1.14.

I also like Percival better than Reyes. Essentially they're the exact same pitcher except Percy has about 3mph more on his fastball.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Apr 7, 2008 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

So many people tell me!!!

I just really don't think he's ever going to be very good. Never have. I've watched him pitch a bunch, and I just can't see him being anything other than an adequate #5 starter.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Apr 7, 2008 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well last year he pitched like a pretty good #2

obviously he has a lower ceiling than Garza based on raw stuff, but he's a damn good pitcher and a hell of a #4.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Where?

In AAA?

In the show he pitched like a pretty crappy #6

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Apr 7, 2008 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Killed by the DRays' awful defense

he had an above-average strikeout rate and did a phenomenal job of limiting walks. Not his fault so many balls dropped in for base hits.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

4.22 FIP, 106 tRA+

so I guess he was more like a #3 than a #2. But still.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

See

But it was his fault. He gave up 58 xbh in 130 IP. I watched him most of his games, and he regularly got hammered. He really struggles once a team sees him once through the order. His line the second time through the order was absurd. Hitter hit .350/.379/.579/.958 against him. Sorry, but thats not bad luck or bad defense.

Sure, defense played a role in his sucky numbers, but they played a role in Edwin Jackson's sucky numbers too. In fact, Edwin gave up just as many xbh as Sonnanstine in 30 more innings. I'd take him all day everyday over Sonnanstine over the next 3 years.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Apr 7, 2008 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

According to PMR, Sonnanstine's predicted DER was .686

That's based on the balls in play he actually allowed. His final DER was .667.

He's not terrific or anything, but if he puts up the same 2007 numbers in front of a normal defense, you like him a lot more than you do now.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Soooooo

Do we change the site tag for the series, or leave it as "Go Rays!"?

Go away Sexson

by Brian Floyd on Apr 7, 2008 10:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Boo Mac?

Go Joses!
For the love of fuck, six innings, Erik!

Those are my ideas.

by Teej on Apr 8, 2008 2:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

my two questions

and the two biggest questions, I think, are defense and bullpen. The rays defense was the stuff of legend last year, and their bullpen shat themselves as often as not. How do you feel about this year's versions of the two? Is Percival a closer? do you have a good lefty? What about set up? How is you infield D? Outfield? I saw the comments above about Sonnastine allowing some crazy amounts of extra base hits, and that says more about the outfield defense than it does about Sonnastine.

the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 8, 2008 10:14 AM PDT reply actions  

The bullpen is improved, but average at best. Percival is a closer, Miller is the only lefty specialist, Howell can get righties and lefties out from the pen. Wheeler is solid, Reyes has been iffy setting games up. The infield D is great up the middle with Barlett/Iwamura, and Aybar/Pena are very solid at the corners. I think the biggest problem with the outfield D is the weak candidates in right field, Hinske/Gomes are just awful out there.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." - Robert S. Weider

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 8, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

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