Five Questions: Tampa Bay
As part of my effort to make peace with our eventual overlords, I recently exchanged five questions with RJ Anderson of DRaysBay. Read his answers and be prepared to recite them from memory in the future like the good little bandwagon Rays fan that you are (or, if you aren't, that you ought to be).
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First and foremost, what's the status of Scott Kazmir? Are there any concerns that his elbow problem could come back with a vengeance? I've been one of the guys leading the charge onto the Rays bandwagon, but a struggling Kazmir obviously makes them that much worse.
He's feeling good now. His personal timetable is sometime around the last week of April, and I think the team will allow him to slot in right around there between James Shields and Matt Garza. As for his elbow of course there are concerns, it was one of the chief reasons the Mets traded him -- the other being his party life and their stupidity -- and while his case has added merit, you have to remember the Rays have had a total of one pitcher undergo UCL reconstruction/Tommy John surgery since 2005 and that was Wade Townsend who needed it out of college.
What's the atmosphere like in and around Tampa Bay, what with the team looking good in both the short- and long-terms for the first time in franchise history? Is there a lot of excitement, or are people kind of waiting around to find out, or what?
Cautiously optimistic. You see a lot more of the new gear then I can remember previously seeing. For good reason too, the new hat has a more classic feel and cosmetically just looks better than the previous versions. The team has a few star players now with Crawford, Kazmir, Shields, Upton , Pena, and even Iwamura, and the Rays have done a nice job building the brand up from baseball purgatory, so I suppose you can say the atmosphere is the best it's been in quite a while.
In your honest opinion, do you think Tampa Bay 's a good baseball market? The Rays are clearly in it for the long haul, what with the new stadium plans, but how much enthusiasm is there in the area? How much enthusiasm could there be given a winner?
Right now I don't think it's a good market, but I think it can develop into one. It's hard to believe but the only baseball this area has seen professionally was spring training, so outside of the last few years there haven't been people growing up with a true home team to root for. As these youngsters -- the fans that is -- grow up with memories of Eduardo Perez homering off of Mariano Rivera, or Jared Sandberg hitting two homeruns in one inning, or even Carl Crawford stealing home you'll see a legitimate fan base grow alongside the bandwagon fans and frontrunners if the team is winning. Right now you have the transitioning of teams, as the fans here see that they have a real baseball team in their backyard (just add water!) with a beautiful waterfront stadium a lot of these Yankee/Red Sox fans will begin turning into Rays fans, assuming the product is good, and if the product is good this area will take to it, just look at the Buccaneers and Lightning selling out for years at a time.
What does it feel like to follow a team that's finally being run by a competent front office? Seriously. I want to know. Hook a brother up.
I feel for you, but we're just now finishing cleaning up the mess. God bless Chuck LaMar's draft classes, otherwise we'd be in a worse position than Baltimore. On the bright side you have Felix, Bedard, Ichiro, Putz, and fans like Red running around, that’s pretty awesome.
James Shields: the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Present your argument why or why not.
He averaged 6.9 innings per start last year, tying him for third with Brandon Webb and giving us a hope despite having an awful bullpen. Threw 5.11 strikeouts per walk, just behind C.C. Sabathia, has a goatee, never gets hurt. Oh and his version of change makes Barack Obama piss himself.
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My answers to his questions are currently posted over at DRB, so give them a look if you're so inclined. And don't feel bad if the M's go on to get smoked in this series. For the first time in history, there are worse things than getting steamrolled by Tampa Bay.
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I look forward to a DBacks/Rays World Series in 2010.
If Pinocchio has a cocaine problem and he lies about it, does that make it worse?
Battle of the double Ds...
Wait, that wouldn't apply anymore, damn. Maybe just battle of the 1998 expansion brothers.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." - Robert S. Weider
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 7, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Anyhow, thanks Jeff for having me and I wouldn't be shocked if you take the series. At least Bedard vs. Garza should be fun.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." - Robert S. Weider
We've scored once over the past 18 innings, that was on a solo homerun.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." - Robert S. Weider
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 7, 2008 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Have you seen the Rays pen??
It's improved...from last season...and that's not saying much
Tools Whore
Great stuff all around...
I particularly liked this, from Jeff:
Bill Bavasi's track record would be nearly spotless if you could take out all his moves and replace them with other moves.
One question though
can you really put Jones ahead of Young because of performance? I know that Delmon didn't exactly set the league on fire last year, but it seems odd to put him below Jones on the basis of performance, given that Jones never really had an opportunity to show how he'd perform if he played regularly..
Delmon's never done anything like Jones did in AAA last year
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Except he has
done exactly what Jones did in AAA, only in AA at 19. He was in line for the Southern League (a league that favors pitchers) triple crown when he was called up to AAA. He had a .336 average, and .582 slg%. He absolutely killed the ball in 05. And at 20, in AAA, essentially had the same stats as Jones. The difference in perception is that Delmon struggled for much of the year in the big leagues last year, while Jones only struggled (although he was worse than Delmon) for 30 games.
Tools Whore
That's more or less
what I was going to say. I looked at the projections and (ignoring Bill James), they all spit out OPSs in the mid .700s for both players (except ZiPS, which is really high on Jones). I don't really follow minor league projections, but I was surprised to see Jones>Bedard>Delmon.
Okay, how about this:
AJ has had extraordinary success at a higher level than Delmon so far. Obviously the fact that Delmon spent 2007 in the Majors kind of makes comparison more difficult, but right now I think you have to give AJ the offensive edge.
Plus, AJ's a good glove in center. Even if you think Young has the better bat, he loses that edge by having to play a corner.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions
That works for me
but I'd probably rather go Jones and Young over Bedard over the next decade.
Yeah
I couldn't really convince myself either way about Bedard or Young, so I just favored the guy who's had the best recent performance. I could be easily persuaded, though.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions
only if they fix the logo though
It looks like my dad made it in MSPaint
Free Barry Bonds
by JI on Apr 7, 2008 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions
The logo and color scheme have grown on me
they'll look great on the shirt and/or hat I'm going to buy.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions
The unis look great.
They're good rip-offs of what the Padres have.
The logo still sucks.
Free Barry Bonds
by JI on Apr 7, 2008 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought they were cool to begin with.
And I haven't changed my mind. I'm wearing the home hat right now, as a matter of fact. I like simplicity, and I like blue. So I'm happy.
If a team has to beat us
I'd rather it be the Rays. I've been married to the Mariners for nearly twenty years, but Tampa is young and sexy.
The artist formerly known as Katal
Just for fun: The Seattle Bay Rayiners
C - Johjima
1B - Pena
2B - Iwamura
SS - Betancourt
3B - Beltre
LF - Crawford
CF - Upton
RF - Ichiro!
DH - Ibanez
-----------------
MIF - Lopez ('08 version)
4th OF - Wilkerson
C - Navarro
CIF - Morse
5th OF - Floyd
-----------------
SP Bedard
SP Hernandez
SP Kazmir
SP Shields
SP Sonnanstine
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RP Putz
RP Lowe
RP EOF
RP Reyes
RP RRS
RP Green
Umm
Sonnanstine doesn't make the team. Garza is 100x better than Sonnanstine. And IMO, there are at least 4 pitchers in the minors for the Rays that will be better than him by the end of the season if they don't get hurt.
This is a minor quibble, but I'd slot Bedard behind the King and Kazmir. Sure, he was better last year by a little bit, but Kaz struggled most of the first half because the Rays made him move to the other side of the pitching rubber. Once he went back to where he previously stood, his ERA was 2.39 and his WHIP was 1.14.
I also like Percival better than Reyes. Essentially they're the exact same pitcher except Percy has about 3mph more on his fastball.
Tools Whore
I think you underrate Andy Sonnanstine
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
So many people tell me!!!
I just really don't think he's ever going to be very good. Never have. I've watched him pitch a bunch, and I just can't see him being anything other than an adequate #5 starter.
Tools Whore
Well last year he pitched like a pretty good #2
obviously he has a lower ceiling than Garza based on raw stuff, but he's a damn good pitcher and a hell of a #4.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Where?
In AAA?
In the show he pitched like a pretty crappy #6
Tools Whore
Killed by the DRays' awful defense
he had an above-average strikeout rate and did a phenomenal job of limiting walks. Not his fault so many balls dropped in for base hits.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
4.22 FIP, 106 tRA+
so I guess he was more like a #3 than a #2. But still.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions
See
But it was his fault. He gave up 58 xbh in 130 IP. I watched him most of his games, and he regularly got hammered. He really struggles once a team sees him once through the order. His line the second time through the order was absurd. Hitter hit .350/.379/.579/.958 against him. Sorry, but thats not bad luck or bad defense.
Sure, defense played a role in his sucky numbers, but they played a role in Edwin Jackson's sucky numbers too. In fact, Edwin gave up just as many xbh as Sonnanstine in 30 more innings. I'd take him all day everyday over Sonnanstine over the next 3 years.
Tools Whore
According to PMR, Sonnanstine's predicted DER was .686
That's based on the balls in play he actually allowed. His final DER was .667.
He's not terrific or anything, but if he puts up the same 2007 numbers in front of a normal defense, you like him a lot more than you do now.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 7, 2008 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I just got rickrolled by DRaysBay
not a promising start to this Tuesday.
my two questions
and the two biggest questions, I think, are defense and bullpen. The rays defense was the stuff of legend last year, and their bullpen shat themselves as often as not. How do you feel about this year's versions of the two? Is Percival a closer? do you have a good lefty? What about set up? How is you infield D? Outfield? I saw the comments above about Sonnastine allowing some crazy amounts of extra base hits, and that says more about the outfield defense than it does about Sonnastine.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 8, 2008 10:14 AM PDT reply actions
The bullpen is improved, but average at best. Percival is a closer, Miller is the only lefty specialist, Howell can get righties and lefties out from the pen. Wheeler is solid, Reyes has been iffy setting games up. The infield D is great up the middle with Barlett/Iwamura, and Aybar/Pena are very solid at the corners. I think the biggest problem with the outfield D is the weak candidates in right field, Hinske/Gomes are just awful out there.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." - Robert S. Weider
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 8, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions

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