Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
Seattle: 2-5
Tampa: 3-3
GAMES
Game 1: Erik Bedard* vs Matt Garza
Game 2: Jarrod Washburn* vs Andy Sonnanstine
Game 3: Miguel Batista vs Edwin Jackson
No lefties, yay for small favors.
It's hard to figure out exactly what kind of batted ball profile Garza yields given multiple small and disparate sample sizes the last few years between Triple-A and the majors. The only legitimate conclusion to come to is that Garza is neither an extreme flyball or groundball pitcher. He is though a pitcher who misses a healthy percentage of bats and avoids missing the strike zone a good amount of the time.
Andy Sonnanstine was tops amongst Tampa pitchers we hoped to acquire should our trading have led us there instead of to colder, more hostile environments up north. Sonnanstine shows consistently average groundball rates, but has even better strikeout and walk trends than Garza. Sonnanstine however was plagued by the little league defense that Tampa fielded last season which lead to a BABIP above normal rates and a LOB% of just 60.6%. Those numbers scream regression and it's a fair bet to predict Sonnanstine to be among the top half of AL starting pitchers this season.
Edwin Jackson was the poor man's version of Sonnanstine in our trade mongering, people sometimes advocating him as more realistic of a target. Jackson's always had immense talent, reaching the bigs at just 21. He, like the two above, is an exactly average groundball pitcher, but Jackson's weakness lies in his lack of control. That would be one thing if he could miss more bats than either Garza or Sonnanstine, but in fact he misses less. To put it in more familiar terms, Jackson is sort of a combination of Gil Meche circa-Seattle and Brandon Morrow should he be thrust into the rotation this season.
Likely Starters:
C Shawn Riggans
1 Carlos Pena
2 Akinori Iwamura
3 Willy Aybar
S Jason Bartlett
L Carl Crawford
C B.J. Upton
R Nathan Haynes/Eric Hinske
D Cliff Floyd
Tampa's more egregious affront to baseball last year, their defense, is much improved for 2008. Upton is firmly entrenched in center instead of 2B and Jason Bartlett is an asset with the glove at short over Brendan Harris who is not. These changes and others will help serve to make Tampa's pitching staff return look much improved when in reality they'll just be feeling the effects of regression and not having 7 men behind them do a Keystone Cops routine on every ball in play.
Offensively, there's some things to like and notably not much to hate. Riggans, filling in for the injured Navarro hasn't had any big league success yet, but has a fine minor league track record. Carlos Pena obviously had the breakout year last year, but he's always had the talent. Iwamura is an asset at second. Bartlett and Aybar are around for their defense, but both also should be able to avoid being a black hole on offense. Crawford and Upton are good bats and while the RF platoon isn't, at least it keeps Cliff Floyd off the field which should help him provide good power and help his longevity.
Up and down it's a solid lineup, but no one in particular jumps out as a concern for opposing pitchers. It's not a patient lineup, but they have some power potential sprinkled amongst them and those that don't do a good job of hitting the ball on the ground for those annoyingly scrappy singles. In short, it's like a better-constructed Mariner team.
CONTEXT
So much for seizing the opportunity. Two series; two blown saves by the Ms pen. Of all the possible doom to boom scenarios we considered over the offseason, this likely was not among them. For two years now we've been spoiled by having baseball reduced to an 8-inning game. No longer so, at least for the short-term, and it's going to take some getting used to because for now it just feels like repeatedly getting smacked in the face with a hedgehog.
It's funny to me that when mainstream announcers extol the virtues of players who perform "in the clutch" during September stretch drives, a favorite stat line to fall back on is, "A win in April is worth the same as a win in September," or some derivation thereof. It's humorous to me because given this seven-game stretch in September, we'd be freaking out as well, assuming we were anywhere near a playoff spot, and we are obviously freaking out now, but if this happened in June, we'd be pissed but quickly shrug it off. If there was some sort of measure for post-Game Thread Emotion, games at the start and end of the season would rate highly, while the "dog days" of summer free us both from small sample sizes and the crunch of the deciding games.
We spent all winter alternating between bemoaning our piss-poor offense and luck-filled 2007 season and optimistic hopes of a Bedard-Felix Cy Young combo and another magical year of staving off any further veteran decline. We're far too eager to read far too much into these early samples, both good and bad. It's understandable, just acknowledge that the reason is insanely early. Yes, these losses hurt; they hurt a lot, but the season isn't over, yet.
THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:
Tampa Bay Burning Bunny
Tampa Bay Brewing Company. Tampa, FL
Smoked beers a.k.a. Rauchbiers for those in the know, aren't the most popular in the states with the closest you can usually find being smoked porters, which aren't quite the same thing. This beer pours a dark brown and on first whiff you can tell where the genre label comes from as there's no better way to describe it as smoky. It's not a bad smoke, but rather pleasant and as you get used to it, a maltiness is present as well. The taste matches the smell with some smokiness and malt obviously present and matched alongside with a little chocolate and a lingering finish of bitters and coffee. It's a solid overall beer, though one that doesn't particularly stand out in its genre. What can I say, Tampa is not exactly a hotbed of brewing.
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30 comments
Comments
Man
If only we had a veteran like Joe Borowski in our bullpen.
The
Richie,
the
by Rollo Tomasi on Apr 8, 2008 3:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I love the Rays now
But cmon Mariners let's kick some ass. This is the easiest opening schedule around, we can't start the season 3-7.
by phil333 on Apr 8, 2008 7:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what his pre-game meal is, but I hope it's Kraft dinner.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Apr 8, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now I'm sad Reitsma isn't on our team. >:(
"Hey Eric you know a quick way to warm up before games buddy?"
"No Christopher, what?"
'PHBBBBBBT"
"Ahahahahahaha"
"Now the mound smells like your ass!"
"Ahahahahahaha"
Free Barry Bonds
by JI on Apr 8, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was feeling kind of bummed out today,
all these South Park references are cheering me up though! Anybody know when first pitch is scheduled today?
Fun Fact: Angels third baseman Chone Figgins' first name is actually pronounced "Shawn." And his last name is actually pronounced "Weinberg" (it's a silent "Figgins").
by Thingray on Apr 8, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also:
"Hey Eric you know a quick way to warm up before games buddy?"
"I'm not your buddy, guy!"
'PHBBBBBBT!!!!!"
Fun Fact: Angels third baseman Chone Figgins' first name is actually pronounced "Shawn." And his last name is actually pronounced "Weinberg" (it's a silent "Figgins").
by Thingray on Apr 8, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Needs more Geoff Baker, guy
Baker: Is your hip feeling better, buddy?
Bedard: I'm not your buddy, guy!
Baker: Well I'm not your guy, friend!
Reitsma: Hey! He's not your friend, buddy!
by ack on Apr 8, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent!
I couldn't think of who else to throw in there to get the whole shtick working.
Fun Fact: Angels third baseman Chone Figgins' first name is actually pronounced "Shawn." And his last name is actually pronounced "Weinberg" (it's a silent "Figgins").
by Thingray on Apr 8, 2008 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Canada.
America's hat.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Apr 8, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Erik Bedard is magic
we'll be fine.
by seattlebruin on Apr 8, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baltimore still hot
leading Tex 4-0 in the third.....Sherril could lead the league in saves for April the way things are going.
Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!
by MfaninAlaska on Apr 8, 2008 11:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Baltimore = surprise team in 2008?
Of course the Rangers aren't very good, but still.....
Fun Fact: Angels third baseman Chone Figgins' first name is actually pronounced "Shawn." And his last name is actually pronounced "Weinberg" (it's a silent "Figgins").
by Thingray on Apr 8, 2008 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Adam Jones is good enough to lead the M's to the Series
He's good enough to carry Baltimore, too.
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Apr 8, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember 2005? When Baltimore was in first place in mid May?
How'd that work out?
Felix Hernandez may be The King, but Justin Upton is a GOD.
by Goose on Apr 8, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baltimore is still the team with the best shot at losing 100 games.
I know what you're thinking: San Francisco is far worse. And that's true, but their division is easier.
by Llewdor on Apr 8, 2008 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The NL West is easier than the AL East?
Felix Hernandez may be The King, but Justin Upton is a GOD.
by Goose on Apr 8, 2008 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How the hell have you ever had a beer
brewed in Tampa?
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 8, 2008 8:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I get around.
I also have family in Florida.
by Matthew on Apr 8, 2008 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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