Whither groundballs, Felix?
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 23, 2008 1:28 PM PDT
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PrintThe 2008 season is still new, but taking a peek at Felix’s statistics over at FanGraphs you can see that his groundball rate is down a good bit so far this year, as his his strikeout rate. Conversely, his walk rate is up. Is this small sample size noise, or is this something to keep an eye on?
GB% by year:
2005 (84.1 innings) – 67.1
2006 (191 innings) – 57.7
2007 (190.1 innings) – 60.8
2008 (37.2 innings) – 49.1
K/9 by year:
2005 – 8.22
2006 – 8.29
2007 – 7.80
2008 – 7.41
BB/9 by year:
2005 – 2.45
2006 – 2.83
2007 – 2.51
2008 – 2.87
Normally, I wouldn’t be so concerned about the strikeout rate as long as the groundball rate was increasing, but it’s taken a pretty significant hit so far this year. Couple that with the fact that the walks are on the rise as well, and I’m starting to get a little bit concerned. Also, glancing at his pitch velocity, you can see that they’re down pretty much across the board except for this changeup. Now, the weather is still cold so I’m less concerned about this, but I would think that with decreased velocity comes improved control. The rise in walk rate seems to discount this.
I’m probably overreacting to all of this…I just get concerned when the King is involved.
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37.2 innings.
that about says it all.
br
Fuck my pussy, maybe he is!
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 23, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions
ha. NOOOOOOO!
but everyone must admit their heart skipped a beat when mac made a mound visit in the second last night.
br
by sirbrianwilson on Apr 23, 2008 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I know mine did.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 23, 2008 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions
PARTY FOUL
wtf, dude – aren’t you superstituos? saying that shit is grounds for castration in these parts.
That's good to know.
I scoured my typical stat sites (THT, BRef, Fangraphs) and couldn’t find anybody who had K% or BB% listed.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 23, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think anyone does
It’s dumb and I’m going to rectify it soon
Make it your personal mission.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 23, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Would you?
People always give me crap when I post THTs K/G because they have no idea what it means. K% would be so much nicer.
The poster formerly known as Matt.
Does that mean that THT is going to have to reorganize their stats?
Right now they give GB, FB, and LD as percentages of batted balls. If/when they make the switch to accounting for strikeouts, walks, and HBP they’ll have to make the percentages relative to all outcomes, no?
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 23, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Matthew's Super Awesome, Totally Out of This World Stat Page
.com
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 23, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
His velocity is fine
he’s throwing fewer four-seamers and more two-seamers in the interest of getting quicker outs (you’ll notice that his P/PA has dropped substantially).
As for the groundballs, until there’s more evidence I’m going to write it off as sample size. It’s not like his pitch sequences have gotten appreciably different. I imagine things will begin to look more normal once his ratio of RHB/LHB faced balances out.
Good point.
His P/PA is down to 3.5 this year (from 3.7 last year and 3.8 in 2006).
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 23, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
plus his stuff looks better if anything
so I don’t think we have anything to worry about.
Yeah
this is another reason to hope MLBAM makes detailed batted ball types/trajectories available. It seems, visually, that Felix has given up fewer ground balls this year, but the ‘category’ that’s really grown has been flares/pop-ups/dying quails/texas leaguers. That’d be a cool category, possibly defined as a ball that is first touched by an OF who moved towards home to intercept the ball.
Anyway, yeah, not too worrisome at this point.
Also, isn’t it crazy how many of these flares/pop-ups have actually dropped in for hits? There’s another stat to track….
Why isn't there a "not worried, have you seen him pitch?!?!" choice in the vote?
Usually these statistics are a great way to discover problems, but the way Felix has been pitching, who the fuck cares what his numbers are showing? Felix is dominating right now. He may not be doing it in his usual fashion, but he is showing how good his stuff truly is by getting outs on poorly hit flyballs. Hitters have been fortunate enough just to get the ball in play. Felix’s K/9 and BB/9 will return to normal levels, but I would say his GB/FB rate will likely stay around 50% just because he no longer throws that devastating slider.
I'm too tired to read the paragraph Wilder. wrote,
but his subject is right on. Watching him pitch, he looks like he’s doing well even when he’s struggling. I’m not worried.
...and now I'm here
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