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Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

Seattle: 10-10
Baltimore: 11-8

GAMES

Game 1: Felix Hernandez vs Jeremy Guthrie
Game 2: Carlos Silva vs Daniel Cabrera
Game 3: R.A. Dickey vs Adam Loewen*

Oh goodie, we get to see Daniel Cabrera this time around, paired up in a battle of opposites with Carlos Silva. Cabrera's control problems aren't any better but he's compensated by striking out fewer batters and allowing more homeruns. Wait, that's bad. Which is good for us. Cabrera enters the series with a FIP of 6.57.

Guthrie still isn't striking anyone out and is allowing way too many homeruns to be successful long term. So far though his defense is bailing him out as he stands with a 5.76 FIP.

Adam Loewen has walked more batters than he's struck out, and allowed way too many homeruns. Sound familiar? So will this part. He's been awful and has managed to look only terrible thanks to his defense. He enters the series with a 7.30 FIP.

Star-divide

Likely Starters:
C Ramon Hernandez
1 Kevin Millar
2 Brian Roberts^
3 Melvin Mora
S Luis Hernandez
L Luke Scott*
C Adam Jones
R Nick Markakis*
D Aubrey Huff*

Scott and Markakis are off to rousing starts, but the rest of the lineup is...well...only Kevin Millar has an OPS+ over 100 and it stands at 106. They draw an average number of walks, strike out an average number of times and see an average number of pitches per PA. What they do do, is steal. 2nd in the AL in successful steals it will be important for the Ms to keep an eye on Roberts and Markakis. And for the love of sanity, don't let Adam Jones beat us.

CONTEXT

There's a small chance we could see Bedard back for game three which would be a big boost to the club, but I wouldn't be counting on anything. However, we should be near to getting J.J. Putz back into the bullpen which is going to necessitate a roster move from the bullpen. The lefties are safe as is Sean Green so the candidates seem to be Morrow, Corcoran or Lowe assuming Dickey stays up until Bedard comes back and Baek isn't dealt off. Corcoran's been effective for McLaren so it might be more likely to see either Morrow or Lowe sent down. Given that it is the Mariners, I'd start preparing for Mark Lowe to get optioned back to Tacoma.

Is Richie Sexson back? On one hand, it's a very small sample size and there are still games where he looks like Beltre sans talent at the plate. On the other, we've rarely seen Sexson be actually successful at the start of the year. Though the first 20 games, Sexson's OPS while with the Mariners have been: .821, .693 and .606 with nine walks being the most he had drawn in that span. Sexson's OPS stands at a robust .875 with 14 walks drawn and one can only imagine that with some renewed spark, he might start getting pitched around more. Hopefully he maintains his newfound discipline even in the wake of recovering power.

Is Kenji Johjima finished? On one hand, Kenji's been a fast starter the previous two years with OPSs of .854 and .913 through his first 17 games in 2006 and 2007. He's at a paltry .512 right now and while the increased walk rate is nice, he's hacking away at anything near the zone seeing a career low 3.2 pitches per plate appearance. One the other, Johjima's line drive rate is consistent with his career figures at 18.9%, a perfectly respectable number and his groundball rate hasn't changed much suggesting his overall approach isn't much different. What is different is a spike in infield flys and a correspondingly low BABIP. Expect both of those to regress and Kenji to go back to being an mild asset with his bat while we give Clement a year more to gestate and feed on Triple-A pitching.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Lions Winter Ale
Granville Island Brewery. Kelowna, BC

Good luck finding this one. Granville Island doesn't export outside of British Columbia but man oh man, this one is worth the drive up north to get. I am referring in specific to the winter ale, but it could be said for many of their lines for Granville Island is certainly a brewery worthy of considering amongst any of America's west coast. It pours a ruby red and through taste and smell is very reminiscent of Newcastle Brown Ale, possibly even a touch better and with a smidgen more of a chocolate finish. I should mention that Newcastle [on tap] is one of my favorite beers. Pity their football team blows ass. Overall this instantly jumped up the ranks to settle in as one of my preferred beers and will certainly be a must get every time I head across the border.

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Well said.

Formerly Alaskan, until Alaska showed up at the SB Nation switch. Thanks for nothing, Alaska!

by The Alaskan on Apr 21, 2008 11:27 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Kenji's LD% is 20.4??

Weird the things that stats tell you that the naked eye doesn’t

by seattlebruin on Apr 21, 2008 10:34 AM PDT   0 recs

I was just thinking that

exact same thing, because I don’t remember any line drives hardly at all from Kenji… unless they consider floaters over the infield that fall for hits to be linedrives.

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Apr 21, 2008 10:37 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well I'd assume those are counted as line drives

but I don’t think its necessarily repeatable to be able to hit bloop liners over the IF to get to a ~league average LD%. Does seem like Kenji hasn’t really hit the ball hard this year though.

by seattlebruin on Apr 21, 2008 10:40 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

floaters usually aren't considered line drives

but it’s up to the discretion of the game charter.

by Matthew on Apr 21, 2008 11:12 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What do they count them as? OF flies?

Seems kinda counter-intuitive to me I guess

by seattlebruin on Apr 21, 2008 11:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

or, depending on the PBP data company,

they can be called “fliners.” Where these end up in the GB/LD/FB trichotomy, I don’t know, but I guess I’d assume FB.

by marc w on Apr 21, 2008 1:13 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

heh... floaters...

the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 21, 2008 11:20 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

KJ walking
“while the increased walk rate is nice, he’s hacking away at anything near the zone seeing a career low 3.2 pitches per plate appearance”

So he’s walking more (min 4 p/pa) yet seeing fewer pitches, which implies that in his other ABs are far worse than 3.2 p/pa.

Gosh.

Accidental Mariner - P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page

by MarkE on Apr 21, 2008 10:48 AM PDT   0 recs

Team ERA is barely worse than league average

Defense and luck are aiding them a ton. And their offense hasn’t been bad.

by Matthew on Apr 21, 2008 11:15 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

that would be thanks to us

if we didn’t blow two games they’d be 9-10, and if we’d beat the tar out of them as we fucking should have done they’d be 7-12 and we’d be at the top of the division. The fact that we’re at only .500 with our schedule is nothing short of pathetic.

the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 21, 2008 11:18 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I just checked their schedule so far.

Baltimore has been played pretty tough by Tampa Bay, they’ve split series with Toronto and the White Sox, and they were destroyed by Texas. But, they’re coming off a series victory over the Yankees.

I’ll describe them as erratic.

by Llewdor on Apr 21, 2008 11:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, we've lost two of our key pitchers...

I’d say that with Bedard and Putz out as long as they have been—being at .500 is very respectable. Especially since we’re .500 vs. LAnaheim.

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Apr 21, 2008 12:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Huzzah to Newcastle on tap

Although I’m a fan regardless.

by cwel87 on Apr 21, 2008 11:16 AM PDT   0 recs

you drink that filth?

I’m pretty sure its just carbonated ethanol with artificial beer flavor

the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 21, 2008 11:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

This is a false statement

Newcastle on tap is damn nice.
Still probably one of my favorites. Yeah, it’s not as complex as some of the great winter ales, but it’s so damn drinkable.

by marc w on Apr 21, 2008 1:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I always find it odd that the Granville Island Brewery

isn’t on Granville Island. Maybe it used to be – who knows?

by Llewdor on Apr 21, 2008 11:19 AM PDT   0 recs

Is that what happened in this case?

I would think that’s a fairly rare occurence.

I like midgets more than I should.

by Thingray on Apr 21, 2008 11:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But worse, it wasn't originally an island, either.

In 1886, the area was dredged and filled to create more land for industrial uses, and two sandbars were inadvertantly converted to an island. This was named “Industrial Island”. However, the island sat directly below the Granville Street Bridge, and the name Granville Island was more widely used and eventually stuck.

Then, there was a plan to fill the entire inlet to create yet more land, but most of the industries on Granville Island relied on the ready supply of water that came from being on and island, so they lobbied to have only the area just south of the island filled, and this converted the island into a peninsula.

So, it was a man-made island, and then made made it not an island anymore.

by Llewdor on Apr 21, 2008 12:03 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

God Bless Man.

Where would Nature be without him?

Formerly Alaskan, until Alaska showed up at the SB Nation switch. Thanks for nothing, Alaska!

by The Alaskan on Apr 21, 2008 12:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's nothing

Those whole man-made islands in Dubai … now that’s a definite sign of Man being a little to intelligent in the “how to do it” department….

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Apr 21, 2008 12:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Everything is crazy in Dubai

Too much money.

^Palm island under construction

by Graham on Apr 21, 2008 12:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

HA HA!

...phallic.

the other angels fan [formerly newlocal]

by Eyebrows on Apr 21, 2008 12:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So what's the outer ring?

A diaphragm?

Formerly Alaskan, until Alaska showed up at the SB Nation switch. Thanks for nothing, Alaska!

by The Alaskan on Apr 21, 2008 12:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If you're serious, it's a seawall to protect the inner (main) island.

They’re also working on a set of islands that will look like a map of the earth from above.

I like midgets more than I should.

by Thingray on Apr 21, 2008 12:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

There's 3 or 4 different sets of those man made

Palm, the world and a couple others I can’t recall right now…. I’ve seen the making of them on the discovery channel or one of those other learning type channels.

For the world islands they’re having problems finding enough under water sand.

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Apr 21, 2008 12:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I've seen the same shows.

It’s interesting how they dredge for the sand, but seems a little like they are raping the ocean floor.

I like midgets more than I should.

by Thingray on Apr 21, 2008 12:40 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah I thought the same thing

wonder what the ecological studies were on doing something like that… . oh wait they probably didn’t do any….. there are 3 palm islands and the world islands in Dubai….

PS.. anyone else having problems replying … everything I click reply it asks me if I want to join… when I ok it it says I’m already a member of LL… this just started happening.

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Apr 21, 2008 12:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I've been having that problem

for the last hour or so.

the other angels fan [formerly newlocal]

by Eyebrows on Apr 21, 2008 12:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It's doing it to me too.

I like midgets more than I should.

by Thingray on Apr 21, 2008 1:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It did it for me once.

I just logged out and logged back in and haven’t had a problem since.

Hmm... Needs more Bonds.

by Double06 on Apr 21, 2008 5:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

the ocean floor is asking for it

going around all tarted up like some hussy

the other angels fan [formerly newlocal]

by Eyebrows on Apr 21, 2008 12:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Apr 21, 2008 12:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

you beat me to it asshole

but I’m still posting mine because I skipped over the “thewolfweb.com” image in my GIS.

the other angels fan [formerly newlocal]

by Eyebrows on Apr 21, 2008 12:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Here in Mariner land, we like to go for the most blatantly available

rather than the one that makes the most sense or is of the highest quality.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Apr 21, 2008 12:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

hahaha

hilarious.

the other angels fan [formerly newlocal]

by Eyebrows on Apr 21, 2008 12:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Sure it does.

The entire northwest from about Spokane west is made of Microcontinents, roughly the size of Vancouver Island. As the North-American plate travels west ward, it picks these islands up. Imagine Carlos Silva colliding with Willie, which would create a super greasy, gritty, ground-baller who could steal bases.

by InSpokane on Apr 21, 2008 1:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Adam Jones

At the risk of sounding like a bad Mariners fan, I’d really like to see Adam Jones do well in this series (and for the entire year).

I don’t feel like the M’s organization ever gave him a fair shake, and I’m excited for him to have the good career we are all expecting from him even if it’s not in a Mariners uniform.

by Jeff Nye on Apr 21, 2008 12:13 PM PDT   0 recs

Your mother would be ashamed of you.

Formerly Alaskan, until Alaska showed up at the SB Nation switch. Thanks for nothing, Alaska!

by The Alaskan on Apr 21, 2008 12:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

"Why can't you be more like your brother, The Science Guy" - Jeff Nye's mom

Am I right?

My mom wants me to shave and get a haircut. And move to Sequim. She’s 0-fer.

Formerly Alaskan, until Alaska showed up at the SB Nation switch. Thanks for nothing, Alaska!

by The Alaskan on Apr 21, 2008 12:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Old people, apparently.

Formerly Alaskan, until Alaska showed up at the SB Nation switch. Thanks for nothing, Alaska!

by The Alaskan on Apr 21, 2008 1:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The weather is mild and very dry for western Washington

and a small ski resort is very close by. I’d get bored of the area pretty quickly, but it has its attractions.

Hmm... Needs more Bonds.

by Double06 on Apr 21, 2008 1:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Question about beers

I recently started taking an interest in trying to find beer that I enjoy

(so far Guiness is meh, Sam Adams Spring Ale isn’t too bad)

I know there’s been tons of discussion on beer, but is there an easy way to find some of the threads on LL approved booze?

Is search still borked

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Apr 21, 2008 12:15 PM PDT   0 recs

borked?

gah hit post too soon!

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Apr 21, 2008 12:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What kinds of beer do you like now?

You can’t have had only two beers…. what’s your favorite right now?

by marc w on Apr 21, 2008 1:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm pretty certain

that I’ve only had 2 types of beer so far. I really haven’t done much drinking in my life.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Apr 21, 2008 2:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Uh, OK.

You should probably just try some stuff and see what tastes good to you. But like Jeff says, you’ve come to the right place – go to the beer thread and just…I don’t know, go nuts (in a responsible fashion that does not involve drunk driving).

by marc w on Apr 21, 2008 2:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But do not begin with IPA's or anything rough

start with wheats or pale ales or something and work your way up. Otherwise you’ll just blast yourself right out of beerdom forever.

by Jeff on Apr 21, 2008 2:58 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well

If you’re looking for something you can probably find at your local grocery store, I’d recommend Rogue, Alaskan Amber, or HW Pyramid, and Fat Tire is okay.

by OlSalty on Apr 21, 2008 2:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Or you can start like I did on the smooth smooth taste of Henry's Private Reserve.

Can’t get enough of that wonderful Henry’s.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Apr 21, 2008 3:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You've come so far.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Apr 21, 2008 3:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Fat Tire actually sounds like a good beer for that.

It’s pretty light, has a decent flavor, and can be consumed in great quantities. Though sounds like you might’ve had a bit much this last weekend.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Apr 21, 2008 3:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs