Patience

by Matthew on Apr 15, 2008 8:51 PM PDT in The More You Know Comment 31 comments

We are 9.25% through the 2008 season, which is an incredibly small sample size, but still one thing sticks out in 2008 from 2007; that being the patience being displayed at the plate by the Mariner hitters. In 2007, the Mariners ranked last in the American League in both pitches seen per plate appearance (3.63) and walks drawn (389). 15 games into 2008 and the Mariners are seeing 3.83 pitches per PA, a dramatic improvement and are drawing walks at a much improved pace, 60 in 15 games.

X-axis = number of walks in game, Y-axis = % of games

As you can see even in the early going the curve has shifted considerably to the right. In fact, the Mariners of 2007 drew an average of 2.4 walks per game. With 15 games in the book (including today's), the 2008 version is sprinting ahead at a nifty 4 walk per game pace which is clear from the astoundingly perfectly even distribution.

It's still a long ways from being a meaningful sample size, but nonetheless it is a very encouraging sign. We never had any concerns about the pitching staff's talent, just its durability (which has proven prophetic so far), but we did have significant concern over the offense's ability to score runs and a large part of that was tied to the impatience displayed in 2007. If the Mariners have actually adopted such a radical new philosophy so as to continue anywhere near this four walk per game pace, well then, we're in for quite a good ride with the offense.

Pray for this to continue. And for Putz and Bedard to return. And for Bonds.

0 recs | Comment 31 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

BONDS

Go Nova

by dbroncos31 on Apr 15, 2008 8:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

And pray for Mojo.

Felix Hernandez may be The King, but Justin Upton is a GOD.

GTE of the week:

"SEXSON WANTS TO TASTE THE MOTHERFUCKING CURB"

~Jordan of Boise

by Goose on Apr 15, 2008 9:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm still waiting

for the mojo to rise.

by Fin on Apr 15, 2008 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Viagra's on backorder.

by BrianL on Apr 15, 2008 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

this mojo?

by Scrupio on Apr 15, 2008 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could only imagine the walk rate if Bonds was on the team.

Gotta love his OPS, whether he’s roided or not.

by Fin on Apr 15, 2008 9:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The fact that he's roided is better.

Rooting for a bunch of pansy bitches is boring.

Go Nova

by dbroncos31 on Apr 15, 2008 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So wait..

Jeff Clement’s new nickname is Bonds?

http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com

by LantermanC on Apr 15, 2008 9:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

But our scrappiness percentage is already

down 18 points! You can’t say, “gee, he really hustled out that walk,” now can you?

by Liebkartoffel on Apr 15, 2008 9:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Pete Rose did.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Apr 15, 2008 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

BB/PA

So far in 2008 = .103
Overall 2007 = .063
April 2007 = .053
May 2007 = .069
June 2007 = .071
July 2007 = .074
August 2007 = .050
September 2007 = .057

BB/K in 2008 = 0.86
BB/K in 2007 = 0.45

P/PA in 2008 = 3.81
P/PA in 2007 = 3.62

Its something. We’ll see if it lasts. Also, Yuni and Kenji are taking less that 3 P/PA. I don’t know if thats good or bad but it’s something since I doubt anybody thought they could be less patient. (Yeah I realize Kenji has walked a couple times)

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 15, 2008 9:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yuni swings at too many first pitches

by Fin on Apr 15, 2008 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The beauty of that distribution is beyond words

by Telegraph on Apr 15, 2008 10:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Thats what it looks like when Jeff makes up data to back up his point

and we are all too lazy to double check he’s not a liar.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 15, 2008 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How much of this is just

going from Guillen to Wilkerson?

Guillen BB% 2007: 6.5%
Wilkerson BB% 2008: 19.5%

No, Wilk by himself didn’t do this, but for as much as we talk about the increased P/PA of guys like Vidro, Lopez et al, the differences don’t look THAT striking. Clearly, it’s not showing up in the BB% (OK, it is, but not a huge amount).

There are two spots that are now much, much more patient than last year: Right field and first base. Sexson’s increased patience is interesting, but also so far out of line with his career numbers I wonder if it can continue. If I had his 2007 season, I’d change my approach as well, so maybe he’s just decided to let marginal pitches go now that he can no longer hit them hard.

OK, Johjima’s BB% is way up too, but it’s still under 10% and his pitches/Plate Appearance are actually down.

I think Wilk’s patience is having a huge effect on this team, but I just really want to think Sexson can keep this up. If he does, he’ll actually keep his job.

by marc w on Apr 16, 2008 9:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wilk is a big part of it, but most everyone's walk rate is up

Ichiro, Lopez, Johjima, Vidro, Sexson, Beltre, Ibanez; everyone but Yuni is on a better pace for walks in ‘08 over ‘07

by Matthew on Apr 16, 2008 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

See below

but what happens if you strip out IBB? Some hitters are seeing a hell of a lot FEWER pitches and yet walking more. That screams small sample size oddity to me, but I could be wrong.
I hope I am.

by marc w on Apr 16, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm hesitant to strip out IBB

because they are a reaction to the batters.

by Matthew on Apr 16, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, fair

I just think they’re largely a reaction to one batter: Sexson. I suppose Ichiro and Ibanez will continue to draw them, but I don’t have a sense of the frequency to expect.

by marc w on Apr 16, 2008 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm probably doing this wrong

but it appears that the difference between Guillen and Wilk is, so far, about 0.11 pitches per plate appearance. For the TEAM.
Now, Wilkerson hasn’t played every game, but adding a full pitch per plate appearance (or more) from a regular is a Big Change.

Take out the intentional walks, and I bet a large majority of this increased patience is due to Wilkerson, and then, to a lesser extent, Sexson.

Betancourt, Johjima, Beltre are all seeing fewer pitches than last year. Ichiro and Ibanez are seeing more, but take out the intentional walks (Ibanez already has 5!) and I’m sure it evens out. Vidro is up, but has two IBB as well – probably up but by a negligible margin. Sexson is clearly seeing more, and Wilkerson always sees a lot of pitches. I’m just not seeing a pattern that screams a team-wide change in approach, at least unless people keep intentionally walking a batter or two per game.

by marc w on Apr 16, 2008 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The amount of change is almost certainly small sample size

but there is anecdotal evidence (our eyes) that suggests an improved approach by more than one hitter on the team. It’s also too early for there to be a solid connection between pitches/PA and walks drawn. For instance, Lopez obviously has been a big departure, going from 3.5 pitches to 4.0 per PA, but he’s only walked 3 times, about 10% ahead of his 06/07 pace.

by Matthew on Apr 16, 2008 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes,

i think that Sexson and Lopez appear to have changed their approach (for the better). But I think the overall team data isn’t one of solid, across-the-board improvement. Joh/Betancourt appear disappointed if they can’t swing at the first pitch each appearance.
I haven’t noticed anything too different from Vidro/Ichiro/Beltre/Ibanez.
It’d be great if this persists, but I just don’t know about Sexson – I don’t know that he’ll continue to get so many balls out of the zone. Lopez looks better than he has in the past, but he actually started out with more patience last year as well – he walked in 5% of PAs in the first half last year (compared to 2% in the second), and his ISO-patience was actually better last year. Maybe the BB/PA will come around/in line with P/PA, but we’ll have to see. So far, the biggest difference is that his K rate has plunged and he’s putting the ball in the air a bit more.

Wilkerson seems like the one guy who can be expected to give the M’s a clear, consistent increase. We’ll see, maybe Lee Elia’s influence or a new approach will filter down to others, but I think a lot of what you see in the graphs is the result of a couple of guys.

by marc w on Apr 16, 2008 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs