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[Updated] tRA Player Cards - Now Taking Requests

Hmssurprise_tiny by Graham on

I've just set up my spreadsheet to generate player cards from 2007 with a bunch of useful information on them. However, I don't really have a sensible way of actually producing them all for easy viewing, so I thought I'd throw up a thread and ask who everyone wanted to take a look at. I'll start with someone dear to our hearts: King Felix.

(click for a clearer picture)

So, if anyone wants to see a particular player, go for it in the comments and I'll put a player card up. I'm bored of revision.

Note: Although I've done my best to make tRA as accurate as possible, all information has been collected by hand and thus typos are inevitable. If you see a mistake somewhere, please point it out.

Updates: Fixed a little bug in the regression algorithm that seems to be hitting the small sample size-types pretty hard, hasn't affected anyone interesting very much as far as I can tell. I've replaced Excel's automatic percentile ranking with a z-score-->% system which doesn't fit the data -quite- as well but puts the mean on the 50% mark, which I like. Also, BIP% column now in the table, pie chart's a bit bigger, and a sample size indicator is to the right of the first graph. I'm still taking requests, too.

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Here's a question

Are all the percentiles based on descending totals? That is, the 99th percentile pitcher in OFB% is the pitcher who allows the most flyballs right?

What do you think about making a judgment on each stat whether more or less is better and doing percentiles that way?

by Matthew on Apr 10, 2008 2:03 PM PDT   0 recs

Here are some answers

the 99th percentile pitcher in OFB% is the pitcher who allows the most flyballs right?

Yep

What do you think about making a judgment on each stat whether more or less is better and doing percentiles that way?

I did consider this.

But then I ran into the batted ball types, and I honestly couldn't decide which way GB and OFB should go. Obviously, GB/FB ratio is important, but it's important for limiting HR more than anything else; straight outfield flies are better for pitchers in terms of runs and outs than ground balls.

After puzzling that over for a while I just decided that a straight descending percentile would be the best way of doing it, and I changed the rest back to be consistent across the board

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 2:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Better colors.

What about R. Soriano. Let's see what we missed out on.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Apr 10, 2008 2:08 PM PDT   0 recs

Huh...

Not as good as I thought, though clearly still awesome. The regression looks like it will kill his stats, though, unless I'm reading it incorrectly. LD% from 29 to 45? BB% from 12 to 21?

As far as colors go, I'm just not a fan of earth toned/dulled colors, especially in the graph. But they are fine for now.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Apr 10, 2008 2:25 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's % rank in the league

He actually gets better from regression due to a huuuge drop in home runs.

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 2:27 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Ah, you're right. I didn't look that far over.

Though I prefer my way of thinking, since he's not on our team.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Apr 10, 2008 2:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He is on the 15 day DL at the moment BTW.

And to think, I could have chosen to support the Yankees or Red Sox...

by EnglishMariner on Apr 10, 2008 2:25 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Brent Lillibr....oh, never mind. Not a pitcher.

How about GS52?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 10, 2008 2:14 PM PDT   0 recs

Hahaha

His GB% is hilariously low.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Apr 10, 2008 2:27 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah

I wanted to look at Sherrill and Green side by side.

Yin/Yang of set-up men.

by marc w on Apr 10, 2008 4:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Tim Lincecum, Andrew Miller

and next to them, Brandon Morrow

by seattlebruin on Apr 10, 2008 2:16 PM PDT   0 recs

Our friend, Jered Weaver

plus:
Cupcakes
Zito
Sean Green
Pat Neshek

by marc w on Apr 10, 2008 2:21 PM PDT   0 recs

Ok

Weaver actually looks pretty good, although he's in line for a regression.
Cupcakes
Zito
Neshek
Green

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 2:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I rec'd this diary.

Everybody else should do the same.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Apr 10, 2008 2:28 PM PDT   0 recs

I am recommending this FanPost

I support Graham's quest to find more efficient ways to measure pitchers. As long as they prove that Jon Garland sucks.

by seattlebruin on Apr 10, 2008 2:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Garland, you say?

Here he is. That one makes me smile.

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 2:38 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Holy fuck

How is he successful? He doesn't strike anyone out and is in the bottom 10% of LD% even WITH REGRESSION?? Wow...

Do HoRam. That should be amusing

by seattlebruin on Apr 10, 2008 2:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Look at the HR allowed

He isn't really successful, either. Gave up 4.92 R/9 last year.

Here's Ho.

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 2:46 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And he gave up a lot of HRs for a guy who didn't give up that many OFBs

or were his HR allowed more of the 390 ft screaming line drive types?

by seattlebruin on Apr 10, 2008 2:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I have no idea

Information of that nature was not readily available.

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 2:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Graham

I checked the Hit Tracker database (and taught myself how to import spreadsheets... you would think I would have figured that out by now) and anyway, HoRam was no more likely or unlikely to give up line drive home runs, so it would appear to me that he simply got unlucky in his HR%

After running it through by Hit Tracker's criterion (Just Enough + Lucky, Just Enough, Plenty, No Doubter), *WARNING SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT* and over last year, Ho Ram gave up 13 HRs - 1 JE/L, 5 JE, 6 PL, 1 ND, so by %s, he gave up more cheap homers than the average Mariner pitcher would have been expected to give up (by % of HRs allowed)

by seattlebruin on Apr 10, 2008 4:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well it looks like if you regress him and he falls all the way to the 75th percentile in LD%

combined with a relatively low OFB% and a high GB%, all he would need is a few K's and all of a sudden he goes from giant albatross to eh #5 guy.

by seattlebruin on Apr 10, 2008 2:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Where'd you get the batted ball types?

I just checked out HoRam's page on fangraphs and it lists very different percentages for LD, GB, etc.
I know people classify things differently, so it may not matter - just thought I'd ask.

by marc w on Apr 10, 2008 4:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

They're not per ball in play

They're true percentages per plate appearance. Fangraphs uses the former

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 4:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Whoops. I called it a diary instead of a fanpost.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Apr 10, 2008 2:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Rec'd

I have no requests but only want to say that Graham's work fucking rules.

by Gomez on Apr 10, 2008 7:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I see that you're bored of revision...

...but FWIW, I would maybe have bars of zero length for 50th percentile so that a 0th percentile performance shows up with a bar the same length as a 100th percentile performance. Also, that would kinda sorta help with the problem of whether a 100th percentile performance is a large OFB% or a small OFB%, since both an extremely large or small OFB% would show up as an extreme.

It also seems kind of wrong to have the HBP% bars be as long as the K% bars, but it doesn't immediately strike me what the appropriate way to scale those would be.

by ubelmann on Apr 10, 2008 2:40 PM PDT   0 recs

Hmm

Why would it be better to just denote extreme values rather than saying which extreme it is?

The scaling problem I tried to resolve with that pie chart and the actual % per plate appearance, but you're right, it's still awkward.

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 2:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think what I said wasn't very clear...

You should still say which extreme it is, but instead of having no bar for a 0% performance, have a "negative bar" from midway through the graph to the bottom, and for a 100% performance, have a "positive bar" from midway to the top.

I'm thinking that, at a glance, that would make it easier to pick out what makes a pitcher unique. If a pitcher was median at everything except that he had a big GB% and small OFB%, there would be a bar extending upwards for his GB% and a bar extending downwards for his OFB%.

by ubelmann on Apr 10, 2008 2:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Ah yes, that would be a good idea

That's definitely something to consider for the new version, but I'll leave it for now as it would require quite a lot of spreadsheet poking.

Thanks for that.

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 2:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So nevermind about my leaving it

Do you guys like this version better?

(That's Jake Peavy. He's really good)

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 3:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I like it

That's exactly what I was talking about.

by ubelmann on Apr 10, 2008 5:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Because I'm curious

and because it will complete the trifecta of upcoming Angels pitchers, Joe Saunders.

Also since no one asked for them yet, Bedard and Silva.

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Apr 10, 2008 2:51 PM PDT   0 recs

Silva

that line drive rate is RIDICULOUS

by CKel on Apr 10, 2008 4:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It's not really that bad

He gives up a lot of line drives because he allows a lot of balls in play. His LD/BIP is only in the 52nd percentile.

by Graham on Apr 11, 2008 2:25 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

A random question

what kind of sample size would you consider reasonably significant for this type of work? x > 250 batters faced? More?

by seattlebruin on Apr 10, 2008 2:52 PM PDT   0 recs

The regression algorithm takes sample size into account automatically

It might not do it very well, though. When I came up with the correlation coefficients and r^2 values I was playing with ~350ish BF, but I went and dropped that number down a bit for relievers and raised it for starters because all of the relievers were just getting pushed back to average really hard.

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 2:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh holy crap

everybody act nice. And tidy up - we'll probably have guests coming over soon. I hate being on my best behavior.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 10, 2008 3:32 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I either want this to be a gay joke or an R Kelly joke

but, alas, it is neither.

Free Barry Bonds

by JI on Apr 10, 2008 8:05 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

"I pull out my Baretta"

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Apr 10, 2008 10:27 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

A long long time ago

Me and the people at work would do Trapped In The Closet freestyles just to kill time. The point being that the lyrics were so tuneless and devoid of art you could just riff on what you were doing at that moment, fade out, and then BAM you had written a hit R Kelly song.

Free Barry Bonds

by JI on Apr 10, 2008 10:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Thats very true

And its only really the first time you hear that song that you actually laugh..the other times you just think to hard and analyze. Its the "WTF factor" that makes it so great.

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Apr 10, 2008 10:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I got descibed by Dave Cameron as 'kind of like a European mgl'?

Words cannot express the pride I feel right now.

by Graham on Apr 11, 2008 3:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Nitpick...

any chance that you can get your speadsheet to reflect the percentiles as being the more positive of the outcomes?

EX. #1 in K% = 99%
#1 (lowest) in BB% = 99%

Right now Silva is in a very low percential in BB rate, which seems counter intuitive to me.

by PLU Tim on Apr 10, 2008 5:38 PM PDT   0 recs

I'm still thinking about whether I want to do this

I almost prefer having absolutes on there just to be more consistent, but there's an argument to be made for highlighting the 'good' stats over the 'bad'.

by Graham on Apr 10, 2008 5:46 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well....

the way I see it is that when someone looks at Bedard's card they see he's in the 99 %ile for K% and say "Wow. He's good!" Then they look at Silva's BB% and see he's in the 6-7 %ile and think "WTF?"

by PLU Tim on Apr 10, 2008 5:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So would everyone prefer it if I did something like...

K positive
BB negative
HBP negative
LD/BIP ???
GB/BIP ???
FB/BIP ???
IF/FB positive
HR/FB negative

I'm not at all sure what to do with the middle ones though...

by Graham on Apr 11, 2008 2:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Soooo

Do y'all prefer this version (Sonnanstine)? Is it clear which categories are inverted and which aren't? How's the labelling?

by Graham on Apr 11, 2008 6:25 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So at a quick Glance.....

I see that Sonnanstine is a pitcher who:
Get his K's
Doesn't Walk many
A flyball pitcher who's profile suggests that he should give up fewer linedrives than he does and has been extremely fortunate to have given up so few homers.

Does that fit Sonnanstine?

by PLU Tim on Apr 11, 2008 10:41 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's perfect

I like this version. The %/batted ball avoids the weirdness discussed above re: Silva's LD rate. You'd still get a sense that he should allow more total LDs by looking at the K/BB%.

This is awesome.

by marc w on Apr 11, 2008 10:37 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I like it...

It seems fairly intuitive to me to have the X/BIP stats in that direction. Somehow it was weird to have BB% in ascending order, but it's not weird for LD/FB. I'm not sure what the deal is with that.

It's starting to get a bit busy, but would it be worth it to have a BIP% column in the per batter faced cluster? I know it's implied from the first three rates, but it might be good to have it in there explicitly? I'm not sure, just throwing that out there.

by ubelmann on Apr 11, 2008 11:13 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I am on the fence RE: line drive ascending or descending

Should probably give it some more thought at some point, but it's quite easy to switch between the two - the hard part was trying to figure out a way of indicating which measures were ascending and descending without too much clutter.

As for the BIP% column... I don't think it's really necessary, mainly because the pie chart gives you a pretty good idea of the rough BIP% anyway. What would the merits of having a an numeric value there? I'm not really seeing it..

by Graham on Apr 11, 2008 2:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

re: BIP% column

I would include it for the same reason you include the FB/BIP column, essentially. The FB/BIP column isn't strictly necessary, but it's nice to know at a glance whether or not a pitcher gives up a lot of fly balls. Similarly, a BIP% column isn't strictly necessary, but it might be nice to know at a glance whether or not a pitcher could be considered a contact pitcher.

At this point, I can see the advantages of not adding anything more to the cards as there is already a lot of information there. (I wouldn't mind seeing the actual and park-adjusted stats dropped entirely in favor of just presenting the regressed statistics...but that probably wouldn't be a popular viewpoint.)

by ubelmann on Apr 11, 2008 2:46 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Brandon Webb
Micah Owings
Danny Haren
Chad Qualls
Brandon Lyon
Jose Valverde

Felix Hernandez may be The King, but Justin Upton is a GOD.

by Goose on Apr 10, 2008 7:29 PM PDT   0 recs

I'm mostly interested in the Chad Qualls/Brandon Lyon comparisions

because I've been leading the "Chad Qualls for closer" bandwagon and Brandon Lyon is terrible.

Felix Hernandez may be The King, but Justin Upton is a GOD.

by Goose on Apr 10, 2008 8:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You'll love RJ's card.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Apr 10, 2008 9:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs