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~3/31: Opening Day Open Pregame Thread

Tiny by Jeff on in Game Threads Comment 1099 comments

Because I can't wait any longer.

Odportrait08_medium
Here's to you, Opening Day. The greatest day of them all.

2 recs  |  Comment 1099 comments

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Read More: Gil Meche (P - KAN), Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, Mar 31, 2008 3:40 PM PDT

Comments

Display:

shaved head, scruffy beard

Gil Meche is now Erik Bedard!

by MFAN on Mar 30, 2008 10:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I was literally typing something very similar to that

Good thing I already have a beer opened...

HA HA HA, your Grandpa's an ASS!- Tourette's Guy (R.I.P)

by tootthekazoo on Mar 30, 2008 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jeff looking like Meche jokes will never get old.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Guess I'm the only one

Who sees Josh Brown there...

by qrsouther on Mar 31, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Best. Username. EVER.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Mar 31, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY

BASEBALL! Finally. I'm totally wearing my jersey to work tomorrow, rules be damned

HA HA HA, your Grandpa's an ASS!- Tourette's Guy (R.I.P)

by tootthekazoo on Mar 30, 2008 10:23 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Cheers

to you
to the Mariners
to the new season
and to all baseball fans who no longer have to wait until baseball season and sit through that torturous span of time between October (when the Ms are always unceremoniously kept out of the World Series) until the end of March!

Slight note: certain exceptions are made for the Sundays the Seahawks play and for the occasional hockey night in Canada broadcast.

~Inter Arma Enim Silent Leges~

by Enrique on Mar 30, 2008 10:23 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Huh.

I can't believe how excited I am. Especially after spending my first offseason with you guys and becoming terribly depressed.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 30, 2008 10:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

How many beers in are you?

30? 40? No matter how much you try not to look like Gil "The Fish" Meche, it doesn't work Jeff. I'm sorry.

Curse you, Detroit Lions!

by Coach Owens on Mar 30, 2008 10:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

30-40?

I'm not made of (A) money or (B) livers.

by Jeff on Mar 30, 2008 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ah to be made of livers

BTW, if you define "bears" in terms of the gay subculture... that above part becomes even funnier.

by johnbai on Mar 30, 2008 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Best comment ever.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sometimes I'm surprised you go to Roosevelt.

You know, when I was there we were featured on NPR as one of the most alcoholic schools in the country.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 30, 2008 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I honestly don't think Jeff looks like Meche anymore

I seriously think it's more Bedard now. I'm assuming Jeff will look like Silva in 2009.

by MFAN on Mar 30, 2008 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still can't find myself

getting excited about the start of the season... I'll still watch the games, but its defintely not the same excitement as in years part... more of a yay baseball, ho hum Mariners feel to it.

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Mar 30, 2008 10:42 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

something something

clap clap clapclapclap!

This is totally worth some sort of ambiguous chant.

King Felix rookie #59 Jersey will be worn to class tomorrow.

Sad to say I will miss the game thread :(

by PShwa on Mar 30, 2008 10:44 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll be Griffeying at the game.

Also thanks to the eBay.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 30, 2008 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My KF59 and RS44(sigh)

are both thanks to eBay.

and are both Alt. Jerseys

by PShwa on Mar 30, 2008 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alt?

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 30, 2008 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alternate.

a.k.a.

ironically a picture of him wearing number 59

by PShwa on Mar 30, 2008 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To follow up with my "Ah"

I like the alt jerseys more.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 30, 2008 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As do I.

Which is why I own two.

by PShwa on Mar 30, 2008 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No Meche jersey?

Curse you, Detroit Lions!

by Coach Owens on Mar 30, 2008 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

:(

Curse you, Detroit Lions!

by Coach Owens on Mar 30, 2008 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why would I pay for that?

That's the kind of thing a friend would get me as a gag birthday gift. A bad friend.

by Jeff on Mar 30, 2008 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because you, at one time, looked like Meche?

And he was a fan favorite when he was here?

Curse you, Detroit Lions!

by Coach Owens on Mar 30, 2008 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was?

Could've fooled me.

by Jeff on Mar 30, 2008 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

women only want money

and casual fans suck.

by MFAN on Mar 30, 2008 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Without them

There would be like 2,000 of us at the stadium.

They're alright.

by Garces on Mar 30, 2008 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Women or casual fans?

Because I gotta tell you, I've been to the games. It's a sausage fest there.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 30, 2008 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Casual fans

Without women, well...there'd be 0 of us.

by Garces on Mar 30, 2008 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Meh...

If you've already got a woman, it becomes:

Go for the effing peace, uh, I mean, beer and hot dogs, stay for the baseball.

by GhettoBear04 on Mar 31, 2008 5:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm going to get you a Jersey.

It will say "HERNANDEZ, but when you wear it the glue will come off the HERN and the NDEZ and you've simply be left wearing player A.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 30, 2008 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Home Bedard #45 for me.

Hey, how else was I gonna spend my tax return?

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm 19. I don't have to move out yet.

Thank god. The real world is scary.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This may sound counterintuitive . . .

but now that I'm out of college and have a real job, I have WAY more money to blow on worthless shit. I also suggest that you trick a girl into moving in with you. It's working wonders for me.

by Teej on Mar 31, 2008 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is correct.

Getting a woman to move in with you makes things so much easier. It's the upsides of:
1) Maid - find a picky woman, and once you get past the "nagging" phase, she'll just clean up all your shit.
2) Roommate - She pays half the bills, plus might pay for the garage to put her car in, but will also hold a bunch of your shit..
3) Chef - If you get off work after her, she'll make all your meals.
4) Hooker (May cost extra) - If you spend enough money to keep her happy, she'll also reward you in other ways. (That 600$ necklace? Repaid by her *and* a friend. Best 600$ I ever spent.)

by Faux on Mar 31, 2008 6:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh... my...

You live a wonderful lifestyle, currently.

by Wilder. on Mar 31, 2008 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

When my wife and I were both in the army and stationed in Korea

we were for a while there both drawing our regular pay, our language score pay for being interpreters, and full allowance for quarters. It was, for our needs and station in life, an absurd amount of money - which we of course were incredibly stupid about, buying a metric ton of crap at every whim.

"Hey honey I just bought $500 bucks of Warhammer figures online" "Oh okay, that's nice."

Meanwhile, my buddy was minutely more modest in his spending, and when we left the army, I had nada and he had bout $30,000 in the bank.

So, at this gentle time in your lives when the high costs of parenthood and student loan payments are not yet smashing your stones, I recommend putting some little portion of income away for your future self. If you're putting some away and finding that you still have way more money for shit, put away a little more. Consider this a message from the Ghost of Christmas Future or something. *scary voice*

by Jordan of Boise on Mar 31, 2008 6:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm Taking Tomorrow Off of Work

Half because the Mariners play opening day early (grrrr), and half because I'm going to have a massive hangover tomorrow startiiiiiiing NOW.

by marinator on Mar 30, 2008 10:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

ugggh

looking thru the shop on the Mariners site I came across a "Mariners Rally Monkey"....... wtf?

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Mar 30, 2008 11:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That's just wrong on so many levels.

by Pet Rock on Mar 30, 2008 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fail.

Fail, fail, fail, fail, fail.

I do not approve of this.

by BrianL on Mar 30, 2008 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

no no no no no no no no no no

this is worse than when I found out that the Mariners sell pink hats

by Jeff on Mar 30, 2008 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey

I got one for my ex. That was okay, she looked great.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 30, 2008 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not okay. If she's going to agree to be a fan of the team

She can learn to wear blue god damn it. Pink hats are NOT acceptable under any circumstances until the team themselves start wearing pink hats. Don't be a pussy, grow a backbone and tell her if she's going to be a fan of your team she's gotta wear your team's colors. No exceptions.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My niece who is almost 2 has a little pink M's hat...

She has a couple different ones, but she likes the pink one. I think this might be one situation where pink is almost ok?

by thenatural on Mar 31, 2008 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

She was significantly hotter than you are.

So I'm going to disregard what you say in favor of seeing her look hot.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

She can look hot in blue >:(

Don't be a doormat

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Her = Hot

You = Not her.

Guess who wins this argument.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wrong.

Hot girls can wear blue. I've seen it! Don't be her bitch, make her be hot in a blue hat. She wouldn't have gotten mad at you for getting her a blue hat.

I refuse to acknowledge you winning, and instead acknowledge you being the submissive, letting your girlfriend call the shots like a typical beta male.

Sorry man.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Guarantee you that's not the case.

Though I don't particularly care if you take my word for it, since I still win with the hot girlfriend.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

?

I don't think that was me.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You mean hot ex

everybody loses.

by Jeff on Mar 31, 2008 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It took you guys a while to notice.

I suppose she still is, but that's much less of my business.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As an aside, I'm not sure I believe you. You're defending yourself too hard

with her hotness

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hm... interesting theory.

You'll just have to be left wondering......

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

She knew she'd never get me, so there was no point in living

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good job.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

...She didn't.

Also, this is not amusing.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hahaha this ended up going way better

than I even expected it to. This place is awesome.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like birds

kittens eat birds

Hence, fuck kittens.

by Jeff on Mar 31, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Moved to Boston.

I don't do long distance.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ehhhh anyone can have a hot girlfriend.

That's still just a subtle way of letting her wear the pants. First it's a pink hat, but then what's next?

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My Fiance'

Has a blue hat but a pink Jersey. I don't really care because she actually likes to goto baseball games. So as long that is the case. I'm not fucking with anything. (literally had a to do a celebrate agreement before the wedding, this next 4 months is going to suck)

Coach Owens = Scruffy's spell check

by Scruffy Lefty on Mar 31, 2008 6:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wheres coach?

How did you let me type celebrate instead of celibate?

Coach Owens = Scruffy's spell check

by Scruffy Lefty on Mar 31, 2008 6:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is this based on the premise

that at some point you'll go 4 months without sex during the marriage, so let's make sure you can handle it right now?

Man... that's cold.

by johnbai on Mar 31, 2008 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

WTF?

Yeah, but you should take advantage of all of the sex you can get today because you won't get the choice in the future.

by Wilder. on Mar 31, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure what happen

but it starts tomorrow. So tonight is business time

Coach Owens = Scruffy's spell check

by Scruffy Lefty on Mar 31, 2008 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tonight?

Why not right now? You are wasting precious time here!

by Wilder. on Mar 31, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And then we sort the recycling

It's not part of the foreplay, but it is very important.

by Pet Rock on Mar 31, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Makin' love...

Makin' love for...
Makin' love for two...
Makin' love for two minutes.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Mar 31, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of Flight of the Conchords

is anybody else going to Sasquatch?

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Mar 31, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You should go to Vegas and get married without anyone knowing.

Then you can have the show wedding people actually think is the real wedding in 4 months.

by Wilder. on Mar 31, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I saw that too

No surprise that its in the sale section... Who would buy that thing?

by thenatural on Mar 30, 2008 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I could of gone my whole life without knowing that exists.

If Pinocchio has a cocaine problem and he lies about it, does that make it worse?

by Goose on Mar 31, 2008 2:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

burn that horrible fucking thing in effigy

then the fool what conceived it. what's next, teal bang-bang sticks! nightmare.

by lemonverbena on Mar 31, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Spring Training stats do have meaning

And Mike Morse will have a breakout year.

http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=164

Come on, it just feels good to be an optimist.

by Edgar for Pres on Mar 30, 2008 11:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Sorry folks, the site is going down for a bit

We need to make some last minute updates to get ready for tomorrow. We shouldn't be down long, an hour at the most.

I'm one of the guys that built the new SB Nation

by lovitt on Mar 30, 2008 11:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

:(

Curse you, Detroit Lions!

by Coach Owens on Mar 30, 2008 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

God Damnit

You take something I love away from me and you can be damn sure that I'll do the same to you

by Robert on Mar 30, 2008 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A whole hour?

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 30, 2008 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll trust you

but only this once

by Jeff on Mar 30, 2008 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And we're back

I'm one of the guys that built the new SB Nation

by lovitt on Mar 30, 2008 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

WOOO

It is officially opening day Pacific/Arizona Time

I was losing some excitement earlier on the news of the platoon. Its all back now... I cant fucking wait

by thenatural on Mar 31, 2008 12:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I read that wrong.

excitement != excrement

by Faux on Mar 31, 2008 6:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be honest, both are correct...

except it didn't come back, like the excitement, it's long gone.

by thenatural on Mar 31, 2008 6:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jeff, did you get a pretty good deal

getting the jersey on Ebay, or was it pretty close to what an authentic one would run you in the team store?

by thenatural on Mar 31, 2008 12:06 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

huh, I didn't see anything that much.

But maybe I looked for the wrong thing.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 12:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was pretty specific

I wanted a Felix, and I wanted a Felix 34.

by Jeff on Mar 31, 2008 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe this is a stupid question

but what is the difference between "authentic" and authentic. My jersey is pretty high quality, but it's from the Majestic brand, which I know generally makes crap. Again, cost me 6.00, so who cares. But what brand do I need to search for to get a real authentic..... "Authentic"?

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Majestic is authentic.

The difference is that the replicas have just blue lettering whereas the authentic jerseys have official lettering with the teal outline and stuff. Worth the extra money because otherwise it looks like it was made for an eight-year-old but costs way more. It's worth the extra bucks for the authentic.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mine's a black Cincy Griffey jersey.

Feels real, great lettering, cost me a whopping 6.00 on ebay. I assumed there was no way it could actually be "authentic"

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can't?

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In theory I could...

but I'm so tall that there isn't much selection, and you don't really know if it will fit right even if the shirt says XXL or whatever.

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 2:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you'd be okay.

My large is big on me, I'm 6"0. So an XL or an XXL long should be fine depending on your waist size.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

waist isn't the problem,

I have an authentic Felix, size 56, and anything smaller than that wouldn't fit. Lucky for my they make 56, it's the biggest size they make!

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 2:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, you're right.

I just searched ebay. Nothing special, only 30+ options for all teams combined.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why would I get a Royals jersey?

Or heaven forbid, an Angels jersey? I mean, I MIGHT get a Nats jersey, but that's a huge maybe. Only a Zimmerman one.

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 2:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I'm saying I know

there are a lot of jerseys out there, but for the vast majority of them I'm not really interested.

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 2:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Real authentic ~40 or less depending on the player.

My "Majestic" in pretty good condition cost me 6.00 on ebay.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wooooooohooooooo

15 hours 'til baseballllllll!111!11!!!!

by OlSalty on Mar 31, 2008 12:26 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Today is a day for teal.

I may be graduating in May, and the Mariners may do something special including getting to the post-season, and I might shoot another 300 this year (or maybe win a damn bowling tournament).

But today is a day for teal. I must concur with Jeff. It is Opening Day, the Greatest Day of Them All.

Let's go M's.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Mar 31, 2008 1:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Cheers!

I'm not much of a wine connoisseur, so I'm just gonna knock back a Tanqueray and tonic, hit the sack and wake up with a boner for baseball.

Go M's! Please.

by Teej on Mar 31, 2008 2:07 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

OPENINGDAYOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAY

ISHOULDREALLYWORKONMYREPORTBUTFUCKITTODAYISSACROSACNTOPENINGOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAYOPENINGDAY

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 2:08 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Your disagreement is wrong.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is the correct answer.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

YAY! an excuse to wear my new Jersey!

Here's to hoping we see Red and Funk blasts. (dear lord please bring that back M's)

This is me not lurking.

by PhilKenSebben on Mar 31, 2008 2:33 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That's the best user name I've seen all day.

I'll have to buy you a beer for that.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 2:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

I just need to post more.

This is me not lurking.

by PhilKenSebben on Mar 31, 2008 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The M's have black

alternate jerseys this year?? Man, those things look nice!

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 2:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

My Opening Day Schedule (PDT)

Now - 7:30am: Work
7:30 - 10:00am: Stuff
10:00am - 3:30pm: Sleep
3:30pm = Game Time!!

---------------------------------

W00t! No more Mandatory Preview!? Brilliant!

by ThundaPC on Mar 31, 2008 2:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Opening Day Schedule (BST)

Now - 6:00pm: Work, then drive home
6:00pm-3:00am Date with MLB.tv (Royals @ Tigers @ 6pm, bit of Giants @ Dodgers followed by Rangers @ Ms)
3:00am - 6am: Sleep. Ouch,

Accidental Mariner - P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page

by MarkE on Mar 31, 2008 2:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Opening day schedule:

Now: Awake.
Soon: Get out of bed.
Eventually: Eat something
Possibly: Do some work
Probably not: Do much work
Looking forward to: BASEBALL

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 2:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Opening day schedule

-2 hours ago: Should have gone to sleep.
Now: Regret
7:50 AM: Wake up
8:50 AM: Wake up
9:30 AM: Coffee, wake up
10:00 AM: Start writing crappy articles about how to make money online
2:00 PM Bus to Safeco
3:00 PM Awesomeness.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You and me were on LL during the Nats game

then I went to sleep, woke up, and you're still here. Does that say more about me coming here right when I wake up or you being here the whole time?

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 2:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I should add:

I don't have insomnia, I just don't get tired easily and tend to waste time online post midnight.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know I am.

Or did you mean fat.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I try so hard

to explain this to people. I work nights, yet people are completely freaked out that I stay up till 3 or 4 a.m.

"Are you depresssed?"

"Are you retarded?"

by Teej on Mar 31, 2008 2:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Shit...

For years when I was younger my parents worried I was stressed or something. I wasn't. It seems as though I just can't turn my brain off. My parents don't worry anymore.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 2:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm pretty sure I'm going to kill myself

I mean . . . the sun's going to be coming out soon . . . and the infomercials are on . . . and life's so hard . . .

Anyway, hooray for the nightowls! Glad to find a few more.

by Teej on Mar 31, 2008 3:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Judge Dredd on TBS!

maybe killing myself isn't a bad idea afterall

by thenatural on Mar 31, 2008 3:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude, I watched the whole thing

I've seen it before, and for some reason, I watched the whole thing

by thenatural on Mar 31, 2008 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm leaving soon.

But if you need a shoulder cry on... Man up.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 3:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's ok, usually when I wake up nobody is here..

sometimes Graham, but he is usually busy building bridges or calculating the square root of is campus or something....

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 2:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

BBBBBBBAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSEEEEEEEEEEEEBBBBBBBBBAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

I'm so pumped!

LET'S GO DBACKS!
LET'S GO MARINERS!

WOOOO!

If Pinocchio has a cocaine problem and he lies about it, does that make it worse?

by Goose on Mar 31, 2008 2:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I was trying hard this weekend

to stick around an extra day or two in Seattle, but I guess I'll be glued to the boob tube like most of y'all. I don't care what our offseason was like right now. I don't care what our projected forecast is like right now. I don't care about 2007's failures. Right now, I just care about droid humping baseball!

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 31, 2008 3:06 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Okay, I need to leave.

I'll give SB nation credit for one thing: There knew format makes it more difficult to leave, because every time you make a comment "I only have to wait just 20 more seconds to see the response... just 20 more seconds and then I'll leave..."

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 3:07 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Seconded

I've been a reader for more than a year, but I've never felt the need to sit around and respond to every comment . . . until the new format came out. Now it's so easy.

by Teej on Mar 31, 2008 3:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Holy fucking christ.

"Their new"

WTF.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 3:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

You're a bad person for that grammatical error and you should feel bad.

by OlSalty on Mar 31, 2008 4:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd kill myself

But that would be unfair to the world.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 31, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm leaving too,

I'm going to one of the local bakeries to spend more money. Bakeries are awesome.

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 3:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So 12 hours left?

*sigh* This is worse than a 6 year old kid waiting for Christmas.

by coolguyrob on Mar 31, 2008 3:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I know dude... This sucks

I slept in really late today and now I can't sleep. I have class at 9:30, so I'm just going to stay awake, effectively making my wait 5 hours longer than it should be.

by thenatural on Mar 31, 2008 3:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Festivites

Only recently I saw some youtube clips of the Opening Day festivities from 2006 or 2007 (I forget which). It all looked very cool.

One question I have though - do TV stations cover this, a la Olympic Ceremonies, or is it just for the closed stadium audience? I presume that MLB.tv won't show anything, I don't recall them doing so last year.

And does a 3:40pm start really mean a 3:40pm start, or is that just a precursor to a 4pm start?

Accidental Mariner - P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page

by MarkE on Mar 31, 2008 4:34 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Very funny thread

I also agree WOOT BASEBALL SEASON!

by phil333 on Mar 31, 2008 4:45 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, one of them has to be right... right?

Thanks for nothing, Seattle Times... although, I don't know why this surprises me.





I accidentally cropped the last article, but Baker's piece is titled, "Mariners not at a crossroads, can probably just win later"

by thenatural on Mar 31, 2008 4:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Links don't work

Baker.....sigh.

We could've won later, if we had kept Jones and the rest of our young talent. Now we do have to win now or wait many years until our farm system is rebuilt before we have another shot.

How does he expect us to win later when almost half of our 25 man roster is 31 or older, including 6 members of our starting lineup? Does he expect the old guys to get better as they age? And our younger guys in the lineup aren't even good hitters, where are we magically going to pull this good offense out of our ass to win later? We have a lot of good young pitchers but the entire offense needs to be retooled and you can't do that through free agent signings alone.

by OlSalty on Mar 31, 2008 5:45 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

WHAT R U TAKLING ABOUT???

JERED WEAVER IS THE BEST!!!1!!11!

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 6:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As much as I hate their blind homerism and everything else about (most of) them

I kind of agree that our pitching will not be enough to make us a clear favorite. That being said, I never thought I'd hear anybody brag about having Jon Garland on their squad. So that made me laugh...

by thenatural on Mar 31, 2008 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The argument is whether or not the M's rotation is better than the Angels

INCLUDING Lackey out for a month.

Not about who was the fav.

Don't see how anyone could pick Angels in that case.

by Fett42 on Mar 31, 2008 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I thought I made a decent argument

Even used FIP and everything. So far neither you nor OlSalty has refuted anything I said. If you have points to raise or issues with my analysis, feel free to post them.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I must have missed it.

Where did you post it?

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Go look for Matthew's posts on regressed tRAs

I don't take you seriously enough to actually look it up myself.

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unless they fixed the search function while I wasn't looking

that's going to be pretty hard. Anything more definite you can give me about where to find it? Like maybe what month it was in?

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Within the last couple of months

Matthew was busy trying to prove that the Angels would beat the tar out of the M's so he did a bunch of projection posts

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

heehee

At least so far he is being normal, unlike many Angels fans that come over here. But maybe I missed some egregious act committed by him in the past.

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not being particularly mean

I just don't think there's any point in explaining advanced pitching metrics to an HH resident.

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But it does seem like they take him seriously over there....

Although saving the entire HH community is WAY too much to ask

by brayden04 on Mar 31, 2008 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But....

Jered Weaver had an ERA+ of 178 in 2006! And the only reason he was so much worse last year is because he was pitching hurt!

by OlSalty on Mar 31, 2008 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So here's what I found:

You created a new stat called tRA.

When you apply a regression model, it projects just about everybody on the Angels as becoming worse, mostly based on the low number of homers per FB the Angels pitchers give up (just like xFIP), while predicting Felix Hernandez will be better (also just like xFIP) because his HR/FB will regress towards league average.

Matthews in his projection says that he likes tRA better than ZIPS projections because it fits his preconceptions better.

While tRA/tRA* is an interesting metric, it seems to me that there are two problems: first, it's based entirely on one year, 2007. First I usually prefer a three year body of data (if possible) because it gives a broader range and helps identify outliers and/or trends in a pitcher's development. Second, it continues the problem of xFIP in assuming that all pitchers operate in the same way with respect to giving up homers.

Example: John Lackey

John has put up the following HR/FB rates in the past three seasons: 7.8%, 6.8%, 8.8%.

All of those are quite a ways below the league average at 11%. Accordingly, xFIP has assigned him values far in excess of his FIP under the assumption that he's going to regress back toward 11%, and it hasn't been right once.

There are two conclusions you can draw from this: A) John Lackey has gotten absurdly lucky three years running, or B) Something is causing his HR/FB rate to remain lower than the league average.

I feel that you have to conclude B), though I would add that I'm not sure that it is anything John himself is doing (at least, not entirely). If you wish, I can expound on the reasoning behind this latter statement, but I'd prefer to hear your reaction to what I've already said before I get into that.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the league in general, yes

But as I said, I'm not sure it's correct to assume that every pitcher will have the same HR/FB tendencies year after year. While most are erratic, Nate Silver recently talked about how Tom Glavine routinely breaks PECOTA projections by screwing around with his likely-hood of giving up a homerun. If an individual is beating the system on a regular basis, logic says there must be a reason for it.

However, as I said, I'm not entirely sure that's the reason in Lackey's case is his own pitching. I'll elaborate further on this in my response to Graham below.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I ran a 10 year correlation check to get my HR regression data

You want to believe that John Lackey is magical, then fine.

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nothing to do with magic.

It's the weather.

I saw in your tRA post that you included the modified THT Home Run Park Factor, and included them in the results. There was another THT article on a similar subject that I'm curious if you looked at: An observation of the actual weather at MLB stadiums over a two-year period and their effect on HR/FB rates.

The results are fairly interesting. League average in this article was 14%. At Angel stadium, 85% of the time the HR/FB rate was 9.4% around a 30% absolute reduction.

Over the years at Angel stadium much has been made by various announcers of the "marine layer" at Angel stadium which tends to knock balls down. I think that this article quantifies the effect of that marine layer on actual games, because the author was forced to place it in the "Other" category of weather, as opposed to in/out/still. The THT park factor rate you used doesn't take this into account.

This would also explain why Escobar, Weaver, and Saunders also seem to be beating the consistently odds on this. Santana can be explained by the fact that the vast majority of his homers are given up away, due to psychological problems I mentioned earlier. Thus, the Angels pitchers are probably not going to regress as much as your model indicates they should, because they spend half their games pitching in a stadium which lowers their HR/FB rate dramatically.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Arghhhhh

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 31, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We've played around with HR park factors

Changing them barely does anything.

And Lackey's regressed numbered add on 0.20 runs per 9 innings.

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

Altering HR/FB rates by -30% in half the player's starts does nothing? That's fairly surprising.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

First off, it's not 30% because the HR factor

for ANA wasn't 100.

Secondly, no, not really. Lackey's tRA went from 4.06 to 3.91 if you give ANA a ridiculous HR factor of 70.

by Matthew on Mar 31, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There aren't that many HR hit per year

The massive park factor swings only change things by +/-3 HR per year max , and that's only ~5 runs.

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Per pitcher, or just overall?

If it were per pitcher, then that's 25 runs, which is 2-3 games, IIRC.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's actually 0 games overall

Since the run environment changes for both teams if you assume that extreme an effect. If you're talking about rotation ability things get a bit different.

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting. I'm not sure which it would be.

Gotta get to class, I'll be back later.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's a terrible stat to use for projecting forward

that was a backward looking study only. It's like computing park factors without controlling for the home team.

by Matthew on Mar 31, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Then control for the home team.

I may be wrong; as I said, it's only a theory, but I think it has merit, as it would explain why the Angels staters as a group seem to have a consistently low FB/HR rate.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

if I had done the study and had the data

I would have. I didn't and I don't but I'm going to try.

by Matthew on Mar 31, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks.

I admit that I'm not much of a spreadsheet/math wiz. Or at least not as much as the people here seem to be. >_>;

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

why are you taling about Lackey anyways?

That's not where the projections differ with anything else. You want to talk up the Angels rotation you're going to have to defend Weaver and Garland as sub 4 pitchers.

by Matthew on Mar 31, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I used Lackey because he best demonstrates

My point about HR rates, having been in Angel stadium the longest. Weaver and Garland's projections owe a lot to their regressed HR rates. If I'm correct about Angels stadium's effect on HR/FB rates, then they, too, will not regress as much as they should.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's a fairly simple way to test if it's the park

Check the HR/FB% of visiting pitchers in Anaheim. Of all the flyballs opposing pitchers gave up, how many cleared the fence? If you're right, it should be significantly lower for everyone pitching there, not just Lackey, Weaver, and Saunders.

I'm gonna throw out a wild guess here and say it's around 11% but it seems like something that would be easy to pretty easy to check if you felt so inclined.

by OlSalty on Mar 31, 2008 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I tried to

But the post didn't go through, and I'm way too lazy to write all of it again, so someone else can point out to you all the ways in which you're wrong.

But the most glaring of which is that you said pretty much exactly what I said, and the only clear advantage the Angels have in the rotation order is at #3 (if you actually buy that Garland's FIP will hold up lol, not that Washburn's will), while the Mariners have a better #2 and #5 easily. And add to that Lackey is going to miss at least 12 starts, and there's no telling how he'll pitch coming back from injury, and the advantage is clearly to the Mariners, I don't see how you could possibly argue otherwise.

by OlSalty on Mar 31, 2008 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lackey will miss 2 months?

The last estimates I read had him back in early May. That's 5 to 6 starts missed, which is Bedard's average over his career, so that's why we feel confident in still comparing the two equally.

As far as an advantage in the number 5 spot, that's only true if you assume Santana is going to repeat 2007. 2006 numbers would put him back at a level with Batista, and as I pointed out, Santana remains a good pick for a breakout season, which along with his youth, gives him a fairly high upside. Batista is getting old and will likely continue to get worse from here out.

Given those two arguments, it seems like you could make a decent case that the two teams are tied or even still give the overall advantage to the Angels.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Mar 31, 2008 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The last report I saw

Said mid or late May, maybe that's changed. But hoping for an early May return and actually returning in early May are two entirely different things, 5 or 6 starts is a pretty optimistic prediction.

Anyways, this is pretty much pointless, I never really intended to get into a silly little argument over whose rotation is better or whatever, I was just pointing out that all of the ways the poster in that diary used to justify the Angels rotation as better (ERA+, Win/Loss record, etc.) are complete garbage stats that tell you very little about their ability as a pitcher. FIP isn't great either but I'm not about to try to explain the more complex measures to someone who doesn't even know what ERA+ does and doesn't tell you about a pitcher.

by OlSalty on Mar 31, 2008 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Too true...

I need to read more carefully

by thenatural on Mar 31, 2008 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yours is a noble mission

but I honestly think you're wasting your time. They're not going to listen.

by Jeff on Mar 31, 2008 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

HAHAHAHAHAH

He called Adenhart a "phee-nom."

That is like calling Morrow a phenom. Absolutely ridiculous. I can't believe I clicked that link.

by Wilder. on Mar 31, 2008 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Adenhart is a pretty good prospect

I wouldn't venture into "phenom" territory quite yet but he definitely has that potential.

by Jeff on Mar 31, 2008 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

I'd take him on the M's, no questions asked.

by Graham on Mar 31, 2008 8:30 AM PDT