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Community Projection Results: Everyone Else

Why put them all in a bunch of individual posts if you don't have to? At this point I'm just in a rush to get them done and out of the way so we can officially put the offseason behind us. Onward!

ICHIRO:

AB:
673 (678)
2B: 24 (22)
3B: 7 (7)
HR: 9 (6)
HBP: 4 (3)
BB:  48 (49)
K: 72 (77)
SB: 41 (37)
CS: 9 (8)
GB%: 54 (56)

BA:
.337 (.351)
OBP: .385 (.396)
SLG: .434 (.431)
IsoPa: .048 (.045)
IsoPo: .097 (.080)

Technically a bit of a drop-off, but not much of one. Ichiro compensates for a small dip in average by hitting for a little more power, meaning that - once again - the team's best hitter will be batting leadoff, coming to the plate several more times than anyone else on the roster.

Of note is that the community projection is the most optimistic Ichiro forecast of anything out there. It's higher than Bill James, higher than ZiPS, higher than Marcel, higher than CHONE, higher than MINER, higher than THT, and so much higher than PECOTA that it's looking down on PECOTA from above and smushing its tiny body between its fingers. I don't know how meaningful this is, but once again, given what our lineup's going to look like, this is a case where we could really stand to be right. If Ichiro reverted to, say, 2005 form, then that would be really bad news. For us.

 

Star-divide

BRAD WILKERSON:

AB: 400 (338)
2B: 20 (17)
3B: 1 (1)
HR: 18 (20)
HBP: 3 (1)
BB:  50 (43)
K: 107 (107)
SB: 4 (4)
CS: 2 (1)
GB%: 41 (39)

BA:
.253 (.234)
OBP: .340 (.319)
SLG: .441 (.467)
IsoPa: .087 (.085)
IsoPo: .188 (.234)

Projected K%: 23.6%
K%, 2006-2007: 29.6%

Clearly, some of you don't believe that Wilkerson's two most recent seasons in Texas tell us very much about his ability. I'd certainly hope they don't, since they weren't very good, but we're talking about 750 plate appearances in a friendly ballpark, here. That's a fair sample. I'm not going to call the community wrong outright, since Wilkerson has posted K% rates this low before, but that was back during his peak, and for a guy to get better while moving from Arlington to Safeco...well, that would be unusual.

Anyway, the Wilkerson forecast isn't too bad. If he can slug in the mid-.400's while drawing some walks, then we'll grow to like his bat, even if the casual fan doesn't. Nobody's wild about his defense, but like the guy who stole Sharon Tate's newspaper, Wilkerson's mediocre glovework should be able to avoid the spotlight given the much more egregious offense taking place nearby.

Warning: major collapse potential. Hurry up, Wlad.

SLAMPIG:

AB: 458 (548)
2B: 20 (26)
3B: 0 (0)
HR: 5 (6)
HBP: 2 (1)
BB:  50 (63)
K: 52 (57)
SB: 1 (0)
CS: 1 (0)
GB%: 51 (51)

BA:
.280 (.314)
OBP: .355 (.381)
SLG: .357 (.394)
IsoPa: .074 (.067)
IsoPo: .077 (.080)

The only difference - the only difference - between Vidro's 2007 and his projected 2008 is a BABIP regression from an extraordinary .342 to a much more normal .308. Somebody hold me.

Of note is that the community is actually more pessimistic about Vidro than all but the MINER forecast. The other systems seem to think he's got a little more power in his bat than we do. To those systems, I ask: what?

WILLIE BALLGAME:

AB: 177 (173)
2B: 5 (3)
3B: 1 (0)
HR: 1 (2)
HBP: 2 (1)
BB:  14 (10)
K: 34 (35)
SB: 13 (7)
CS: 5 (5)
GB%: 54 (61)

BA:
.255 (.277)
OBP: .315 (.321)
SLG: .307 (.329)
IsoPa: .060 (.043)
IsoPo: .052 (.052)

Willie's 90th percentile PECOTA projection has him hitting two home runs.

JAMIE BURKE:

AB: 116 (113)
2B: 6 (8)
3B: 0 (0)
HR: 1 (1)
HBP: 2 (4)
BB:  8 (7)
K: 19 (17)
SB: 0 (0)
CS: 0 (1)
GB%: 45 (38)

BA:
.272 (.301)
OBP: .333 (.363)
SLG: .364 (.398)
IsoPa: .061 (.062)
IsoPo: .091 (.097)

Yeah, that seems about right, although with a sample as small as 116 at bats the variance can be huge. We fell in love with Burke last year for being either (A) the best backup catcher of all time, or (B) the best backup catcher since Tom Lampkin, but the fact of the matter is that he's actually not real good, as one could infer from his minor league .724 OPS. Our affection will help gloss over some of his shortcomings, as will his limited playing time, but I wouldn't count on a repeat season. Backup catchers generally only have one of those. (Or in Burke's case, two.)

Fun fact: over 247 Major League at bats, Burke has a career line drive rate of 26.3%. He's like the curator of small sample size exhibitions everywhere. Also, between him and Charlton Jimerson, this team has two of the best personal stories in baseball.

MIKE MORSE: (2007 stats not shown)

AB: 146
2B: 8
3B: 1
HR: 4
HBP: 2
BB:  11
K: 29
SB: 2
CS: 1
GB%: 46

BA:
.288
OBP: .346
SLG: .430
IsoPa: .057
IsoPo: .142

Note that these projections were filled out before we knew that Morse would start the season with a fairly regular job. One thing's for sure: Mike Morse Mania is alive and well in the Seattle blogosphere community. I'm still not entirely sure why he gets so much love, but this is a pretty optimistic projection for a guy with a career .720 minor league OPS. Of course, part of that's probably the .338 BABIP. Knock just a couple hits off the forecast and he doesn't look so rosy. Given that he's 6'20 with legs that go on for days (rawr), do you think Mike's as embarrassed by his lack of power as I am?

MIGUEL CAIRO:

AB: 113 (174)
2B: 4 (9)
3B: 1 (2)
HR: 0 (0)
HBP: 1 (2)
BB:  8 (11)
K: 18 (24)
SB: 4 (10)
CS: 2 (2)
GB%: 48 (43)

BA:
.251 (.253)
OBP: .307 (.303
SLG: .306 (.328)
IsoPa: .056 (.050
IsoPo:
.055 (.075)

*sigh*

WLADIMIR BALENTIEN:

AB: 216
2B: 10
3B: 1
HR: 10
HBP: 2
BB:  16
K: 51
SB: 3
CS: 2
GB%: 42

BA:
.263
OBP: .320
SLG: .459
IsoPa: .057
IsoPo:
.196

In my head, this is what Wlad does after he's called up on August 1st to become the everyday RF. Why don't I have him becoming the everyday DH? Because in my fantasy world, by the beginning of August that job will already belong to

JEFF CLEMENT:

AB: 206
2B: 12
3B: 0
HR: 9
HBP: 2
BB:  21
K: 35
SB: 1
CS: 1
GB%: 41

BA:
.274
OBP: .346
SLG: .465
IsoPa: .072
IsoPo:
.192

Behold the next player for whom my love of his offense borders on the irrational. There are all kinds of questions surrounding Jeff Clement's future in the big leagues, but when I close my eyes and try to envision what he'll eventually bring to the M's, all I can see are walks and home runs to right field. Obviously I want him to be able to stick behind the plate, but if he can get his work done in Tacoma while Vidro's struggling in Seattle, then this is the guy I want to have DH'ing down the stretch. Provided, of course, that his bat is ready. Which you guys clearly think it is. The sooner Clement's able to put up these numbers, the sooner I'll be able to quit trying to like Raul Ibanez.

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Couldn't agree more

And I hate Mike Morse Mania

by thenatural on Mar 30, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't hate it so much as I am baffled by it

Rooting for the guy is one thing, being belligerently delusional about his abilities is quite another (although that seems to be more USSM commenters' style than anyone here).

by Graham on Mar 30, 2008 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is a fanbase that idolizes Willie Bloomquist

and you're baffled by the Mike Morse love-fest? I think Morse is a great story, and I loved watching him tear the snot out of the ball in ST, but he's a half-decent bench bat at best.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 30, 2008 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll admit it

for some reason I've always liked Mike Morse. I don't really know why. He's a pretty boring RHB that can't play good defense anywhere and refuses to hit for power. Its not like he has a great story or anything like that. Oh well, I'll continue rooting for him for some crazy reason and keep hoping he can sustain an ungodly BABIP so that he lives up to my expectations.

In the end it'd be a lot better if Vidro collapses forcing Ibanez to DH where he belongs. Then Wlad moves into RF and Wilk goes to LF with some appearances from Morse and/or Reed. Sexson finds a little bit of his old self otherwise we are so screwed. Then at the end of the season Clement comes in and steals ABs and hits HRs to push us into the postseason.

I'm just so scared because our lineup has an insanely high collapse potential. We could be somewhere close to league average or the worst offense in the league (yeah even including the Giants). Good thing our SP and bullpen is solid.

by Edgar for Pres on Mar 30, 2008 4:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Just thinking out loud

Would it make sense for the team to acquire Coco Crisp? He's a switch hitter with good defense and isn't the worst hitter out there. It probably depends what we'd have to give up to get him. Any ideas? I'm guessing a RP and a middle level prospect.

by Edgar for Pres on Mar 30, 2008 7:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd be for it and we could get him pretty cheap

but yeah, you know the rest of this. Not gonna happen.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2008 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Come on

You know it'd be nice to here that we at least checked it out and decided it would probably cost too much to get Crisp but we all know they probably won't even do that.

Damn it, we just need to sign Bonds. I'd feel so much better about our offense then. Right now I'm terrified of what it'll look like.

by Edgar for Pres on Mar 30, 2008 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt he'd be used effectively

And if we were going to acquire another OF, it would've been Johnson or Murton.

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on Mar 31, 2008 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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