Series Preview: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Seattle: 0-0
Texas: 0-0
GAMES
Game 1: Erik Bedard* vs Kevin Millwood
Game 2: Felix Hernandez vs Vicente Padilla
Game 3: Carlos Silva vs Jason Jennings
Thank Hades that we won't face a lefty starter. I don't think I could take an Ibanez and Morse outfield this early on.
We justifiably hate on ERA, but there are some times that it's useful because we're all still very familiar with it. Here's one such occasion. The premier three pitchers for the Rangers, their opening salvo to 2008, had the following 2007 ERAs: 5.16, 5.76, 6.45. Curious about an actual measurement? tRAs were 5.41, 5.95, 6.07 and even regressed they're 5.29, 5.49, 5.60. Welcome to bad.
Likely Starters:
C Gerald Laird
1 Ben Broussard*
2 Ian Kinsler
3 Hank Blalock*
S Michael Young
L David Murphy*
C Josh Hamilton*
R Marlon Byrd
D Milton Bradley
Four lefties in the Opening Day lineup for Bedard to roll through. Of note is that given a full season, all nine batters above would project for 100 or more strikeouts. We could see north of 20 strikeouts in the first two games, hell even Silva might nab a batter or two in his turn Wednesday.
CONTEXT
Baseball, baseball, baseball, baseball!!! AHHHHHH SEAAAAAAHAWWWKKKKSSSS
Okay, whew, sorry about that. Here we go, Opening Day (can we get this a national holiday already?), a new Spring, a fresh start, renewed hope, pick your cliché. Beyond that, what does this mean? Well, it's a chance for crazy instant small sample size emotional analysis! Sexson strikes out in his first at bat? He's through. Boo the slug. Lopez pops out? Free Tuglett! Bedard has a typically rocky April start? Oh god, we're screwed!
It's also a chance to do some actual scouting on not just the new players, but the whole team. How does Beltre look? Is his thumb noticeably bothering him? Does Richie's at bats at least look better? Has Lopez learned to fake a clue at the plate? Can Raul cobble together a Chris Gray-like resurgence in LF for a little while after an offseason of rest?
Do you see the difference between the preceding two paragraphs? It's early in the season, this is essentially still Spring Training, and you know what you should be looking at in Spring Training? NOT STATS! Look for Bedard's movement on his curve; are hitters taking fastballs for called strikes? That suggests his deception is still good. That's one example; there's plenty others. These are just games one, two and three of 162. Game one did set a high bar last season; let's hope for an even better one this time around.
Obviously this series kicks off the season, but it has more than that going for it. The Mariners April schedule should be cream-filled until they reach Cleveland at the very end of the month and it includes six games against the Angels. With Lackey out for the month and Escobar for at least 2008, and with the valid concerns over how Seattle is going to score runs, getting off to a good start is paramount. There's a lot of pressure on this team this year and the last thing we need is for them to struggle out of the gate and start pressing. By all measurements, this should be an easy series win for the Ms and a sweep isn't the least bit improbable. From there, they play 4 against Baltimore, who might be the AL's worst team this year. Don't waste the opportunity Seattle.
THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:
Jaywalker Russian Imperial Stout
Walking Man Brewery. Stevenson, WA
A heavy hitter at 12.7% ABV; the alcohol will be felt. Malts and caramels on the nose with a toffee, cocoa, malt and caramel flavors undertoned with some complex fruit sweetness. 2005 North American Beer Awards Gold Medalist.
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59 comments
Comments
I see you've figured out
How to time the publishing of posts...
by Graham on Mar 30, 2008 8:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's a lot less depressing
Over at fieldgulls :(
I can already tell this is going to be one of the more stressful seasons in recent memory.
by OlSalty on Mar 30, 2008 8:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Rangers Opening Day Lineup
2B Kinsler
SS Young
3B Blalock
DH Bradley
LF Murphy
RF Byrd
C Laird
1B Broussard
Thoughts: Hopefully once Bradley gets healthy (a phrase I'll probably be saying a lot this year), he'll be hitting fourth as Blalock seems to fit better in the 5th spot. The Rangers seem to realize how poor the hitting in their outfield is and reacted to it by putting their best defensive guys out there. I have a feeling I'll be seeing more of this, especially against lefties (screw you, Catalanotto!). Finally, here's hoping that Chris Davis, one of the Rangers prospects who broke through last year, is up here by summer. I don't know how much of the 1B batting 9th I can handle...
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 30, 2008 8:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I assume Hamilton is playing centre
And batting... 2nd? 3rd?
by Graham on Mar 30, 2008 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spring my ass.
If Pinocchio has a cocaine problem and he lies about it, does that make it worse?
by Goose on Mar 30, 2008 8:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Debatable if their offense if better than the Mariners...
But man that pitching is bad. Having Jason Jennings as your no. 3 should tell you enough how bad it'll be. I don't think it should be a problem.
by Fin on Mar 30, 2008 10:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
with you about their pitching. They are probably a year away from starting to see the influx of young pitchers that they have been developing for a while. I'm not crazy about what the Rangers are throwing out there on offense right now, especially against left handers, but I'm excited about later in the year which shoud see the arrival (finally) of the first wave of our prospects (Salty, Davis). Too bad the second wave is in Single A still...
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 30, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea, the offense is ok...
I happen to be very high on Josh Hamilton, even though you are right about the lefties, which should help out Bedard. But some of these guys do have pop, and mix that with the heavily inflated offensive numbers being in Ameriquest field, their offense will definitely look good to the untrained eye.
by Fin on Mar 30, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What happened to Saltalamacchia?
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Mar 30, 2008 10:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Demoted.
By sucking just a tiny bit more than Laird.
My starting catcher!
Gotta go dig for another one.
GU Photography
Favor the Bold
by IcebreakerX on Mar 30, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More like...
He sucks defensively and the Rangers are trying to build the trade value of Laird. I would say this seems like an effort in futility...but then I remember the Zito contract and I regain hope.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 30, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
M's should win atleast 2 of 3
With the pitching matchups, they should really sweep, but chances are one of the Texas pitchers will turn in a good start just by accident.
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
by TheOptimist on Mar 30, 2008 11:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
it won't be an accident
unless you count the Mariners having a terrible offense as an accident.
by Matthew on Mar 30, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep
with the M's offense they'll be lucky to win 2 out of the first 3..... I expect Bedard and Silva to struggle the first couple games.
Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!
by MfaninAlaska on Mar 30, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought you were always the light at the end of the tunnel?
by Garces on Mar 30, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was until
I got to understand statistics better... so I'm more realistic and less just a fan.
Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!
by MfaninAlaska on Mar 30, 2008 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My world is upside down right now
I'm gonna go have a cold milk.
by Garces on Mar 30, 2008 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jennings had a 3.78 era in '06??
And while he was pitching for the Rockies? Huh.
by vkut79 on Mar 30, 2008 11:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
ERA doesn't matter
That is strange, helped the Rockies get Willy Taveras though.
by Fin on Mar 30, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I apologize in advance
for burying this thread underneath all the community projection result posts going up later today.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2008 12:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ahhh thar's a pleasure to read
Thanks for the preview. This has been a long, miserable winter. Worse than last year's, I think, because this year we actually have something to look forward to.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 30, 2008 12:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey, nice job
If this a sample of what's to become a regular feature, I like.
Accidental Mariner - P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page
by MarkE on Mar 30, 2008 1:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I kind of can't thank Matthew and Graham enough for their help.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
is the beer sponsorship going to be a regular feature?
and are you the beer decider or will you take suggestions?
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Mar 30, 2008 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's all Matthew
but considering he's talked about starting a beer blog from time to time, I imagine it'll be regular. Especially if the season goes down the tubes and drinking becomes rampant.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2008 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or...
If the season goes up the tubes and celebratory drinking becomes rampant
by coolguyrob on Mar 30, 2008 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do things ever go up the tubes?
Is life ever like salmon?
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2008 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That leftover burrito says yes.
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Mar 30, 2008 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burritos are delicious and never disagree with me
do not besmirch the holy name of burritos.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2008 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still ate it didn't I?
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Mar 31, 2008 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this idea
These would make wonderful primers for each upcoming series, and would go greatly with Jeff's nightly recaps and WE charts.
HA HA HA, your Grandpa's an ASS!- Tourette's Guy (R.I.P)
by tootthekazoo on Mar 30, 2008 1:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
inquiring minds need to know
Do we know yet if McLaren is going to skip the #5 pitcher this week?
by sandalfan on Mar 30, 2008 1:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He's stated that he plans on skipping him...
So we'll see
by thenatural on Mar 30, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No skipping until May at the earliest is what I remember him saying.
The user formerly known as Sec 108.
by Sec 108 on Mar 30, 2008 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could we skip Washburn instead?
Please?
by OlSalty on Mar 30, 2008 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But...he's a lefty veteran
Why would you want to skip a veteran lefty veteran!?
by Garces on Mar 30, 2008 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For a righty
with even more unquantifiable veteran grittiness!
by BrianL on Mar 30, 2008 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeff
I want you to know that I'm safe and alive.
I'm on the run from Coach Owens. I'll be seeing you around.
by Garces on Mar 30, 2008 9:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry Jeff.
He didn't make it.
Curse you, Detroit Lions!
by Coach Owens on Mar 30, 2008 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I HATE FORCED PREVIEW!!!!!
My post was just eaten because I forgot to hit "Post"...
Anyway -- what I said was: How in the HELL did I just spend a 3-day weekend down in Stevenson and NOT at least stop into Walking Man???
Their beer is all pretty fantastic. Especially that Imperial Stout. Their pizza's pretty good, too.
I knew I should've grabbed an empty growler out of the pantry and filled it up on the way out of town. But, well, the car was full already, what with the wine we bought from our brief trip yesterday...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 30, 2008 9:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
quick question
"Kevin Millwood (111,141) vs Erik Bedard (88,34)"
Just saw this in the right hand corner of the site. What are those numbers in parentheses supposed to mean?
by MFAN on Mar 30, 2008 9:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Uhhhh
hmm. That's a mighty good question.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2008 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
spring training ERA?
Seriously though, what the hell is 88,34? At least Millwood got an actual number. I really want to find out what the heck these numbers mean.
by MFAN on Mar 30, 2008 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a bigger mystery
than that MLB.tv commercial spot with the guy's reflection.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2008 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where's that thread?
Curse you, Detroit Lions!
by Coach Owens on Mar 30, 2008 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure
we'll have to wait until they fix the search function.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 30, 2008 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was much scarier, I watched MLBtv in fear.
Whatever the number means, Millwood is either destroying Bedard or vice-versa.
by MFAN on Mar 30, 2008 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I might have kinda figured it out
Kevin Milwood
2007 Runs: 111
Erik Bedard
2007 Hits: 141
I have no clue what the other #s are though.
by Edgar for Pres on Mar 30, 2008 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, it's gotta be something like that
seems complicated, don't think anyone would complain if they just put the ERA in the parentheses.
by MFAN on Mar 30, 2008 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Someone ballsed up?
Any reference to today's game has been wiped from the right sidebar all together now.
Oooh, non-mandated preview! Woop!
Accidental Mariner - P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page
by MarkE on Mar 31, 2008 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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