Community Projection Results: Yuniesky Betancourt

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 28, 2008 7:20 PM PDT

I better hurry the hell up if I want to be done with these things by Monday. Don't forget to swing by USSM, since Dave's covering the pitchers.

AB: 556 (536)
2B: 35 (38)
3B: 5 (2)
HR: 10 (9)
HBP: 3 (1)
BB: 21 (15)
K: 55 (48)
SB: 12 (5)
CS: 7 (4)
GB%: 46 (43)

BA: .291 (.289)
OBP: .321 (.308)
SLG: .424 (.418)
IsoPa: .029 (.019)
IsoPo: .132 (.129)

An observation:

Johjima projected walk rate increase: 43%
Lopez projected walk rate increase: 38%
Betancourt projected walk rate increase: 35%

I have a theory about this. When people are filling out their projections, they're trying their hardest to be realistic. That's the whole point of the exercise; wild-ass guesses would render the project entirely worthless. So with that in mind, when people were entering their data for Johjima/Lopez/Betancourt, they threw in a few extra free passes because they didn't think it was humanly possible for someone to walk so infrequently. Well guess what? You sons of bitches are wrong. It is possible, and these three players are living proof.

Anyway, walks aside, there's not too much that's different here. Yuni's put up back-to-back identical seasons, and you guys see more of the same coming up. High average, low OBP, limited power, and enough stolen base attempts to make us wonder why Yuni ever bothers trying to steal. Nothing extraordinary, but slightly above average for his position. For $1.25m, that's a heck of a deal.

So once again, it looks like most of the attention will be paid not to Yuni's bat, but to his glove. We're still waiting for his defensive stats to catch up to his stellar reputation, but if it doesn't happen now, that'll give us three and a half seasons' worth of data calling him ~average. That's a pretty significant sample, and one that'd force us to re-consider just how valuable a player Yuni really is. I mean, the decent offense and low price already make him valuable enough, but elite-level defense would make him one of the better steals in the league. If he doesn't really have it, I guess we'll just have to settle for "good", instead of "mind-blowingly awesome". Raspberries.

Prediction: Yuni's offense barely changes, but nevertheless attracts quite a bit more criticism than it did last year due to a little clutch situation regression to the mean.

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Comments

If you had optimistic/pessimistic

I would probably have been opt.

I said like 17HRs or something ridiculous haha. I think he can do it. he needs like 10 more feet on his deep fly balls.

by PShwa on Mar 28, 2008 7:56 PM PDT reply actions

Yuni may not be an All-Star

But heck of a value for barely over a million dollars per year. Its too bad Bavasi isn't this good about saving money at every position.

Meanwhile, USSM has posted the Carlos Silva projections today.

by Fin on Mar 28, 2008 8:01 PM PDT reply actions

That's right.

I was mentioned on a popular sports website. Who's the man? This guy.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 28, 2008 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions

you the man

by Corco on Mar 28, 2008 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions

First time here since the upgrade

You guys are totally right. The yellow looks fine on AN, but it looks horrible here. They definitely need to make the "new" color site-specific. I'm surprised none of the other sites complained about it.

formerly known as mdl

by iglew on Mar 28, 2008 10:59 PM PDT reply actions

We complain about everything

by Graham MacAree on Mar 29, 2008 1:22 AM PDT up reply actions

We're also better than everyone.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 29, 2008 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions

Alternate Theory

When people are filling out their projections, they're trying their hardest to be realistic. That's the whole point of the exercise; wild-ass guesses would render the project entirely worthless. So with that in mind, when people were entering their data for Johjima/Lopez/Betancourt, they threw in a few extra free passes because they didn't think it was humanly possible for someone to walk so infrequently. Well guess what? You sons of bitches are wrong. It is possible, and these three players are living proof.

My theory, and what I was thinking when I filled out the predictions myself, is that with the increased emphasis from the coaches for patience at the plate, there would be more walks. More strikeouts as well, and I predicted more of those too.

This, of course, doesn't explain the average prediction for Beltre's strikeouts decreasing, but maybe you're right about people being too optimistic.

by Ike Clanton on Mar 29, 2008 9:27 AM PDT reply actions

With Kenji in particular

I don't see why anyone would expect an increase in his walk rate. Not only has he put up a staggeringly low rate twice, but he's catcher. Check out the 7 lowest walk rates (minimum 400 PA) from last season, and not the positions played by all seven of those guys.

by Llewdor on Mar 29, 2008 12:41 PM PDT reply actions

I think the inflated walk thing

has something to do with the fact that these guys can not humanly walk less than they do now. I bet nobody predicted lower walk rates than they had last year. I think many people probably predicted similar walk rates and then some people expected an increase (regression to mean).

by Edgar for Pres on Mar 29, 2008 3:40 PM PDT reply actions