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Around SBN: Jeremy Lin And How The Pac-12 Missed Him

Community Projection Results: Richie Sexson

The second in the series as we work our way around the diamond. Which, incidentally, Richie didn't do nearly enough. Once again, 2007 numbers are listed in parentheses.

AB: 454 (434)
2B: 24 (21)
3B: 0 (0)
HR: 24 (21)
HBP: 4 (5)
BB: 52 (51)
K: 119 (100)
SB: 0 (1)
CS: 1 (0)
GB%: 43 (48)

BA: .247 (.205)
OBP: .329 (.295)
SLG: .457 (.399)
IsoPa: .082 (.090)
IsoPo: .210 (.194)

As expected, you guys think Richie's a pretty solid bounce-back candidate. Not necessarily in terms of playing time - the projected at bats are down ~20% from his usual, implying an injury or a short leash - but when it comes to the rate stats, your forecasts jive pretty well with the stuff that's already out there.

Note, however, that the bounce-back is due almost entirely to a higher projected BABIP. Richie's .217 was the lowest in baseball last year, and presumably boosted by a few more line drives and some better luck, the community has him coming out at .283 in 2008. This pushes him up to a far more respectable and far less embarrassing batting line, one that would probably be good enough to get him off the casual fan's shit list (if that's ever possible. One for the philosophers, I suppose).

There's a good way and a bad way to look at this. The good way is that, with a .786 OPS, Richie would actually be helping this team score runs, a far cry from whatever it was he did in 2007. It could even conceivably leave him as *sigh* the most productive hitter in the lineup. The bad way is that, even with the rebound, Richie would still be one of the worst overall first basemen in the league, something we could really stand to not have be the case this year. We could use a return to '05/'06 levels like you wouldn't believe, but if that's not going to happen, then it puts that much more pressure on everyone else. Man, I'm really not looking forward to watching us try to score runs.

Richie Sexson needs to produce, and he needs to produce immediately. If he doesn't, the M's won't succeed and he'll quickly find himself out of a job in a contract season. I won't go so far as to say that our fate this year rests on Richie's shoulders, because that would be stupid, but I will say that the magnitude of his bounce-back will be one of the most significant factors in determining how many games the team wins.

I know things are kind of complicated between us, Richie, what with the booing and all. This is your chance to make it better. Win us back.

Please.

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Also, fun fact:

2007 K%: 20.4%
2008 K%: 23.2%

The community certainly thinks he'll look a lot more like the Richie of '06 than the Richie of '07.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 6:58 PM PDT reply actions  

Teixeira '09!

C'mon, he's veteran enough by now.

by Faux on Mar 26, 2008 7:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Or, coincidentally, Raul '08!

Blah blah blah defense....Raul can't be much worse than Sexson, and he's a leftie to boot. What's not to love?

But I would take both.

by Faux on Mar 26, 2008 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

If there's one thing

I hope Sexson does is he takes his ST walk rate with him to the regular season... that would help tremendously off-set his declining stats.... and I know ST stats mean nothing I'm just saying if his line of having an obp .100+ points better then his batting average would be nice to have.

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Mar 26, 2008 7:30 PM PDT reply actions  

Curious

Why do people see his batting average as rebounding, but the loss in power staying where it is? Has he really lost that much power to the point where he won't get it back? Or did he just struggle in every aspect last year

by mariners124m on Mar 26, 2008 8:21 PM PDT reply actions  

That is interesting

especially since the community foresees him hitting more fly balls. I imagine people had trouble shaking the memory of 2007, projected bounce-back be damned.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't say we are expecting a huge bounce back

just back to reality (unless we are in imagination land). We aren't expecting an increase in his power or walks from last year. All we are looking for is for his BABIP to increase to reasonable levels.

by Edgar for Pres on Mar 26, 2008 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Anyway you can do the highest/lowest thing like USSM? You don't have to, just a suggestion.

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on Mar 26, 2008 8:34 PM PDT reply actions  

i miss the old format

looking at the picture and seeing how much better it was. . .

by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 8:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Jeff, what happened to the Sexson image, anyway?

It looks like you tried to vectorize it or something, and now it's all fuzzy.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

I haven't changed it

it should be the same as it was yesterday before the switch.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmmm.

Maybe I need a new monitor. Or a few less beers.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Do my words also look fuzzy?

Because then we will have isolated the problem, you drunk.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, but oddly enough you're slurring

so who's the drunkard now?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's the same.

Cropped very slightly, but the blurryness was there when that one guy photoshopped it and added the banner.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 27, 2008 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

New here

Could we do a prediction of how long Sexson lasts before he goes on the waiver wire if he starts showing his 2007 form again?

by Fin on Mar 26, 2008 8:58 PM PDT reply actions  

My favorite part:

SB: 0 (1)
CS: 1 (0)

Looks like his old legs are gonna cost him his one steal attempt per year.

by Garces on Mar 26, 2008 9:36 PM PDT reply actions  

LOL!

That cracked me up seeing that. Sexson is only one year older than last year. I am wondering which sorry catcher couldn't catch Sexson last year.

by Fin on Mar 26, 2008 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't remember the game

But I imagine that it happened on a double steal and the catcher tried to get they guy going to 3rd. I can't imagine Richie's ass lumbering to 2nd by himself and not getting throw out.

by MFAN on Mar 26, 2008 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Only one year older?

Sexson can't even age at an above average clip. Mediocre son of a bitch.

by hcoguy on Mar 27, 2008 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

hahaha!

The age is certainly catching up to him.

wlad for president '08

by wongguy on Mar 26, 2008 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's a lot of singles.

I don't remember giving him high numbers, but now that I think about it, I have a feeling I had him at .235/.320/.430 or something. So not far off.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 27, 2008 1:26 AM PDT reply actions  

By the way,

What was n?

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 27, 2008 1:30 AM PDT reply actions  

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