Dispelling Myths #4: Spring Training Stats Matter
by Jeff on Mar 26, 2008 3:10 PM PDT
in The More You Know
132 comments
They don't.
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The only thing that matters in ST
is that the admission's way cheaper than during the regular season and you can sit on the outfield lawn drinking beer all day.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 3:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So if this were a bad real estate analogy...
Spring Training is the trailer park of the baseball housing maket?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, with hotter women
because it's in Phoenix.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do spring training felonies count?
/A hopeful Dukes
by Jordan of Boise on Mar 26, 2008 3:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
"You cannot recomment a post
more than once."
Damn.
by Matthew on Mar 26, 2008 3:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
But you can remind me to rec it
So give yourself an extra point anyway ;-)
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ST
Get to watch players you hate Pre-fail.
Hookay?
by CKremer on Mar 26, 2008 3:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Didn't we do this already?
Why don't idiots listen? WHY!?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 26, 2008 3:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I approve of this post.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 3:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hijack
But that blue monstrosity above the main section needs to go somewhere else.
by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 3:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention that
the subtext is in black and is almost unreadable, and that the game time is listed in EST when the game's in Seattle.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given that this is a (theoretically) Seattle blog
Shouldn't it default to Pacific Time?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't even notice there was text in there
But then I use an old CRT with the brightness turned down to zero, so I was understandably fond of the old colour-scheme (black text on white for everything).
by Llewdor on Mar 26, 2008 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im in the same boat
Old CRT and the brightness turned all the way down
I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me.
by wadswerth on Mar 27, 2008 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The event should not be appearing there...
And not in EST time. I will fix it.
I'm one of the guys who built the new SB Nation
by odacrem on Mar 26, 2008 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you much
Could you also consider changing the text colour or the background colour? It's impossible to read.
by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
on it
kind of glad the event appeared there by accident, revealing a css inheritance bug :)
I'm one of the guys who built the new SB Nation. Please don't hesitate to give us feedback.
by sixfoot6 on Mar 26, 2008 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
when I scroll over the red stars it shows a talk bubble with a link to that teams sbn blog
they're both being hidden behind the menu bar at the top of the page for me...
by thenatural on Mar 26, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be honest I like Spring Training
They show lots of boobs in the outfield.
This is me not lurking.
by PhilKenSebben on Mar 26, 2008 4:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Aside from Ichiro
I think we'll see lots of that for the M's this regular season, too.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tampa Bay games are best for that
IIRC
by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's Tampa not Tampa Bay
they are fining their own people for that now, and chastizing media types for calling them Tampa Bay.
Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!
by MfaninAlaska on Mar 26, 2008 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weren't they fining guys for using "Devil"?
Or is your post intended to be for the lulz? Am I over-analyzing?
by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a bonehead
it was for" Devil" not for Bay.
Had to go and check right after I posted that.
Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!
by MfaninAlaska on Mar 26, 2008 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rays is a dumb-ass name too.
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They should drop Bay anyway
might as well drop everything and refer to them strictly with an unwritten unique guttural sound effect similar to a garbage disposal chopping eggshells.
by Jeff on Mar 26, 2008 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They converted Batista to an outfielder?
I mean, I know Raul is bad but is Tits really a defensive improvement?
Sadly...I think he might.
by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
really
like, omg, thanks for telling me that jeff! you've changed my life forever.
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Your humor.
It leaves much to be desired.
by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You were a good addition to the crew.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Mar 27, 2008 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
but really, the mentally challenged trolls are just easy targets.
by BrianL on Mar 27, 2008 7:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
me=not a troll
and i bet i'm smarter than you.
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 27, 2008 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Based on your punctuation alone
I would take that bet.
by BrianL on Mar 27, 2008 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
punctuation
i don't do caps but other than that i don't see anything wrong with the above comment and its punctuation.
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 27, 2008 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The community guidelines are quite clear on this point
by Graham on Mar 27, 2008 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Duly noted.
Sorry for going overboard.
by BrianL on Mar 27, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you're going to be abusive
Just make it amusing.
by Graham on Mar 27, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simply meant as a joke
I don't envy your job
by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was joking too
The guidelines say 'Don't be mean, unless you're Graham'
by Graham on Mar 27, 2008 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lazy and dense
I've got a twofer going today
by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
this place has community guidelines?
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 27, 2008 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
gotcha
so you can be a complete jackass but everyone else has to play fair essentially?
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 27, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, they just have to be funny about it
Since you are clearly incapable of doing so, you should probably refrain from attempting to be abusive.
by Graham on Mar 27, 2008 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
so therefore
brainL got shit because he was being abusive without being funny about it?
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 27, 2008 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be the gist of why my abusiveness wasn't well recieved.
by BrianL on Mar 27, 2008 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
FUCK!
Lazy, dense, and gullible
I need a nap.
by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're really having a rough day
I hope Alfie can make it all better.
by Jeff on Mar 27, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm actually more worried
about Alfie feeling all better in time for the playoffs
by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Caps are your friend.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Mar 27, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
disagree
why use caps when you don't need to.
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 27, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless you're ee cummings
you need to. And a question mark at the end of a question wouldn't hurt either.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Mar 27, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ee cummings smack NIIIIICCCCEEEEEE
I was wrong to have ever had a positive welcoming attitude towards the uninitiated.
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 27, 2008 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because you need to.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Mar 27, 2008 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh no you're here now too?
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but seriously
i think ST stats mean a little more than what you're giving them credit for.
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
theres a really long drawn out argument in the thread that immediately precedes this one...
you're probably not going to change anyone's mind about it
by thenatural on Mar 26, 2008 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not going to fight anyone over it
i'm just stating my opinion. i'm too lazy to fight anyone about it tonight. but thanks for the heads up.
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can state your opinion. But it's wrong.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
opinions can't be wrong
because they're opinions.
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah... so... that deosn't really apply here...
by thenatural on Mar 26, 2008 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
as i'm slowly finding out. . .
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha yeah
communism isn't so bad once you get used to it...
by thenatural on Mar 26, 2008 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
disagree!
but i assume you're just going to tell me i'm wrong.
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn't apply anywhere.
Opinions can always be wrong. You're entitled to hold whatever opinion you'd like, but you're not entitled to it being right, or me not trying to refute it.
by Llewdor on Mar 27, 2008 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the thing is, it's not an opinion when it can be disproven.
It's more of a hypothesis. Your hypothesis is that Spring stats are somewhat meaningful for evaluating talent and who deserves a roster spot, etc. I'm too lazy to look up all the studies and will instead quote Graham, who is smarter than you (and me for that matter)
"There's been lots of work done on this. They have no predictive value for the season at all (I think I saw one study which claimed negative predictive value, which is funny), which is really unsurprising given the tiny sample size and the propensity for experimentation during ST."
--Graham
When there is evidence that what you believe is wrong, there's no shame in admitting you're wrong. That's something we on LL do fairly well, contrary to popular belief. There's a difference between a hypothesis and an opinion. Whatever you want to call your thought process though, there's evidence that it's wrong.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
BUT I JUST WANT YOU TO LOVE ME!
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speakin of Coach..
Has he showed up around here yet with some new nickname to avoid being detected? I haven't seen any Will Thompsons anywhere..
by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's been on here as coach
go to the last thread.
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah must of missed it..
I'm at work wasting time so I gotta constantly hide the window :-)
by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
*insert really stupid/offensive idea*
Graham: blah blah blah you're retarded and gay STAB STAB STAB
I was just kidding, chillax! :P
Until I start covering up for my idiocy by saying it was a joke, I think I'm half a step ahead. At least, I hope I'm not that bad. *shudder*
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
There's been lots of work done on this. They have no predictive value for the season at all (I think I saw one study which claimed negative predictive value, which is funny), which is really unsurprising given the tiny sample size and the propensity for experimentation during ST.
by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was a grand use of bandwidth
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you're in much of a position to say that.
Also, your humor? Still bad.
by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean Gary Matthews Jr. and Maicer Izturis
WON'T hit .400 for the whole season? ;_;
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 7:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey - if they can do that then Morse can hit .518
deal? Woo! Spring Training stats!
by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, I'll take that deal.
McLaren probably wouldn't play Morse even if he did hit that well. Veteran leadership trumps everything, remember? :P
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had a dream about spring training last night
Wow I love baseball. The season is almost here!!
by phil333 on Mar 27, 2008 6:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't get too excited
last week I had a dream about eating a sandwich. I still haven't had that sandwich.
by Jeff on Mar 27, 2008 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This wouldn't happen to be a Jeff sandwich on hottie, would it?
Upon rereading your comment I see that mine doesn't make any sense. Fuck it. It's too late to change it now.
by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're never going to make sense
Even with the preview button
by Graham on Mar 27, 2008 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn't too late in the technical sense
It was too late in the "I'm too lazy to change it or come up with a better joke" sense
by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bar of expectations for ningwers: appropriately lowered
by Jeff on Mar 27, 2008 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't caught up to Corco, have I?
by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It might be technically possible
But I don't think I have the stomach for it... nor the willingness to violate the laws of civilized society
by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good Nick
Way to be responsible. Have a beer!
by Jeff on Mar 27, 2008 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If only...
Lack of beer is cemented in the top spot on the list of reasons I don't like work.
by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A very interesting, and controversial claim
made by Dewan here
A few years ago we discovered that there is a way to use spring training stats to predict future performance. We took all spring training hitters and found that, as expected, about half of them do better than their career norms in the upcoming season, and about half of them do worse than their career norms. However, when we chose only those players doing exceptionally well in spring training, we found that about three-fourths of them performed better than their career average during the upcoming season.
Our definition of "exceptionally well" was slugging 100 points higher in spring training than their previous career slugging percentage. Here's the list of players who are currently 200 points higher so far this spring training. These 24 players might be heading for above-average seasons.
He really needs to expand on this.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 11:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That is interesting
Wish he'd give us the data and sample sizes and everything though...
by Graham on Mar 27, 2008 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It looks like "doing better" can mean anything
So Morse is hitting .518. His career norm is .250. So if he does .260 he qualifies as "doing better"
Not saying that's not still good, only that the numbers are likely not substantial.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Mar 27, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like I said,
he needs to expand on this.
Also, in case it wasn't clear, only the last sentence is mine. The 2nd paragraph is part of the quote.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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