Navigation: Jump to content areas:

Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Odds On Peyton Manning's Next Home Includes Three Teams

Dispelling Myths #4: Spring Training Stats Matter

Wbc_029_tiny by Jeff Sullivan on in Seattle Mariners Stats

They don't.

Comment 132 comments  |  20 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

The only thing that matters in ST

is that the admission's way cheaper than during the regular season and you can sit on the outfield lawn drinking beer all day.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 3:15 PM PDT reply actions  

So if this were a bad real estate analogy...

Spring Training is the trailer park of the baseball housing maket?

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, with hotter women

because it's in Phoenix.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

But you can remind me to rec it

So give yourself an extra point anyway ;-)

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

ST

Get to watch players you hate Pre-fail.

Hookay?

by CKremer on Mar 26, 2008 3:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Didn't we do this already?

Why don't idiots listen? WHY!?

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 26, 2008 3:35 PM PDT reply actions  

I approve of this post.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 3:49 PM PDT reply actions  

Hijack

But that blue monstrosity above the main section needs to go somewhere else.

by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 3:50 PM PDT reply actions  

Not to mention that

the subtext is in black and is almost unreadable, and that the game time is listed in EST when the game's in Seattle.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Given that this is a (theoretically) Seattle blog

Shouldn't it default to Pacific Time?

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't even notice there was text in there

But then I use an old CRT with the brightness turned down to zero, so I was understandably fond of the old colour-scheme (black text on white for everything).

by Llewdor on Mar 26, 2008 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Im in the same boat

Old CRT and the brightness turned all the way down

I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me.

by wadswerth on Mar 27, 2008 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

The event should not be appearing there...

And not in EST time. I will fix it.

I'm one of the guys who built the new SB Nation

by Pablo Mercado on Mar 26, 2008 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you much

Could you also consider changing the text colour or the background colour? It's impossible to read.

by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

on it

kind of glad the event appeared there by accident, revealing a css inheritance bug :)

I'm one of the guys who built the new SB Nation. Please don't hesitate to give us feedback.

by Ryan Gantz on Mar 26, 2008 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

To be honest I like Spring Training

They show lots of boobs in the outfield.

This is me not lurking.

by PhilKenSebben on Mar 26, 2008 4:12 PM PDT reply actions  

Aside from Ichiro

I think we'll see lots of that for the M's this regular season, too.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's Tampa not Tampa Bay

they are fining their own people for that now, and chastizing media types for calling them Tampa Bay.

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Mar 26, 2008 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Weren't they fining guys for using "Devil"?

Or is your post intended to be for the lulz? Am I over-analyzing?

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm a bonehead

it was for" Devil" not for Bay.

Had to go and check right after I posted that.

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Mar 26, 2008 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

They should drop Bay anyway

might as well drop everything and refer to them strictly with an unwritten unique guttural sound effect similar to a garbage disposal chopping eggshells.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

They converted Batista to an outfielder?

I mean, I know Raul is bad but is Tits really a defensive improvement?

Sadly...I think he might.

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

really

like, omg, thanks for telling me that jeff! you've changed my life forever.

by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:25 PM PDT reply actions  

Your humor.

It leaves much to be desired.

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks

but really, the mentally challenged trolls are just easy targets.

by BrianL on Mar 27, 2008 7:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

punctuation

i don't do caps but other than that i don't see anything wrong with the above comment and its punctuation.

by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 27, 2008 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

I was joking too

The guidelines say 'Don't be mean, unless you're Graham'

by Graham MacAree on Mar 27, 2008 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Lazy and dense

I've got a twofer going today

by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

disagree

why use caps when you don't need to.

by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 27, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Unless you're ee cummings

you need to. And a question mark at the end of a question wouldn't hurt either.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 27, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

ee cummings smack NIIIIICCCCEEEEEE

I was wrong to have ever had a positive welcoming attitude towards the uninitiated.

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 27, 2008 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

but seriously

i think ST stats mean a little more than what you're giving them credit for.

by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:33 PM PDT reply actions  

Wrong

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

i'm not going to fight anyone over it

i'm just stating my opinion. i'm too lazy to fight anyone about it tonight. but thanks for the heads up.

by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 26, 2008 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

You can state your opinion. But it's wrong.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, the thing is, it's not an opinion when it can be disproven.

It's more of a hypothesis. Your hypothesis is that Spring stats are somewhat meaningful for evaluating talent and who deserves a roster spot, etc. I'm too lazy to look up all the studies and will instead quote Graham, who is smarter than you (and me for that matter)

"There's been lots of work done on this. They have no predictive value for the season at all (I think I saw one study which claimed negative predictive value, which is funny), which is really unsurprising given the tiny sample size and the propensity for experimentation during ST."

--Graham

When there is evidence that what you believe is wrong, there's no shame in admitting you're wrong. That's something we on LL do fairly well, contrary to popular belief. There's a difference between a hypothesis and an opinion. Whatever you want to call your thought process though, there's evidence that it's wrong.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

BUT I JUST WANT YOU TO LOVE ME!

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Speakin of Coach..

Has he showed up around here yet with some new nickname to avoid being detected? I haven't seen any Will Thompsons anywhere..

by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ah must of missed it..

I'm at work wasting time so I gotta constantly hide the window :-)

by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

*insert really stupid/offensive idea*

Graham: blah blah blah you're retarded and gay STAB STAB STAB

I was just kidding, chillax! :P

Until I start covering up for my idiocy by saying it was a joke, I think I'm half a step ahead. At least, I hope I'm not that bad. *shudder*

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ok

There's been lots of work done on this. They have no predictive value for the season at all (I think I saw one study which claimed negative predictive value, which is funny), which is really unsurprising given the tiny sample size and the propensity for experimentation during ST.

by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

You mean Gary Matthews Jr. and Maicer Izturis

WON'T hit .400 for the whole season? ;_;

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 7:05 PM PDT reply actions  

Hey, I'll take that deal.

McLaren probably wouldn't play Morse even if he did hit that well. Veteran leadership trumps everything, remember? :P

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

I had a dream about spring training last night

Wow I love baseball. The season is almost here!!

by phil333 on Mar 27, 2008 6:20 AM PDT reply actions  

Don't get too excited

last week I had a dream about eating a sandwich. I still haven't had that sandwich.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 27, 2008 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

This wouldn't happen to be a Jeff sandwich on hottie, would it?

Upon rereading your comment I see that mine doesn't make any sense. Fuck it. It's too late to change it now.

by ningwers on Mar 27, 2008 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

A very interesting, and controversial claim

made by Dewan here

A few years ago we discovered that there is a way to use spring training stats to predict future performance. We took all spring training hitters and found that, as expected, about half of them do better than their career norms in the upcoming season, and about half of them do worse than their career norms. However, when we chose only those players doing exceptionally well in spring training, we found that about three-fourths of them performed better than their career average during the upcoming season.

Our definition of "exceptionally well" was slugging 100 points higher in spring training than their previous career slugging percentage. Here's the list of players who are currently 200 points higher so far this spring training. These 24 players might be heading for above-average seasons.

He really needs to expand on this.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 11:05 AM PDT reply actions  

That is interesting

Wish he'd give us the data and sample sizes and everything though...

by Graham MacAree on Mar 27, 2008 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

It looks like "doing better" can mean anything

So Morse is hitting .518. His career norm is .250. So if he does .260 he qualifies as "doing better"

Not saying that's not still good, only that the numbers are likely not substantial.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 27, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Like I said,

he needs to expand on this.

Also, in case it wasn't clear, only the last sentence is mine. The 2nd paragraph is part of the quote.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Mar 27, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Search

User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Moar_bacon_small
Everything I Know About Jesus Montero

by Lord Duggan 1 day ago

14 comments | 35 recs

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Recent Posts

In Association With

Baseball Nation Recent Stories

SAN DIEGO, CA: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers walks off the field after being removed from the game during the 8th inning on his way recording his 21st win of the season during the game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kent C. Horner/Getty Images)

What Does History Tell Us About Clayton Kershaw's Future?

ARLINGTON, TX: Mitch Moreland #18 of the Texas Rangers watches the ball after hitting a solo home run in the third inning during Game Five of the MLB World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Healthy Mitch Moreland Only Makes Rangers Better

statz2

Sifting Through The List Of Comparable Players In PECOTA

More from Baseball Nation >

Sexy People

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Small Matthew