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Wbc_029_tiny by Jeff Sullivan on in Good News Comment 332 comments

Not taking pleasure in somebody else's injury blah blah blah we're not bad people yada yada and so on. This is huge news.

TEMPE, Ariz. -- Pitcher Kelvim Escobar, an 18-game winner last season, revealed this morning that he has a tear in his shoulder, an injury that could require season-ending surgery and, possibly, end his career.

"I'm concerned, I don't know what's going to happen, I don't even know if I'll be able to pitch again," said Escobar, who, just a week into his throwing program, was shut down Sunday because of shoulder pain.

Over 190 innings, the difference between a 3.75 RA from Escobar and a 5.00 RA from some guy is 26 runs. There's basically no possible way that this doesn't make the Angels substantially worse.

At the rate it's been going we're going to win this thing by attrition.

Feeling guilty? Whatever. Go ahead and crack a smile.

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I'm feeling way too good

For guilty to even pop into my head. I'm sadistic, and completely ok with it.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 1:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well...

I never like to read "career ending injury" no matter who the player is, but hey - a win is a win.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 26, 2008 1:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't like it either

and I've always been a pretty big fan of Kelvim Escobar, but my love of the Mariners is overriding everything else at this point.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's what I can say:

They're paid millions because they risk injury - so that fact that he's out for the year: HAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Career ending, sad. So until we know he won't come back (in which case, I'll feel a little bad for him) we can still revel in this. Agreed?

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 26, 2008 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even if it's career ending

His "suffering" will be the ability to retire at 32 with an 8-figure bank account. Gotta put it all in perspective.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Career ending is still sad.

Injury is "who gives a shit, go Mariners!"

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 26, 2008 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"I'm still young. I'll be 32 in two weeks, but retirement is getting into my head, because it's hard to rehab. I want to be out there playing, and I've done everything I can do to be healthy."

wow.

by Matthew on Mar 26, 2008 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

don't think he is

Sounds more like the doctors are hinting that it's so bad, even with surgery it might not repair enough to be a pitcher.

The poster formerly known as NewLocal.

by Eyebrows on Mar 26, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's generally true for about half

of all shoulder tears. There have only been like 4 pitchers who've returned to their previous levels of performance after major shoulder surgery.

Gil Meche is one of them.

by Llewdor on Mar 26, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It just keeps getting worse, doesn't it?

If I'm an Angels fan, I'd consider jumping off a bridge right now. If Lackey's injury ends up being worse than previously thought, you'd have to think that LAA is in a heap of trouble.

Never like to see "career ending injury" though.

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 1:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

how long until they get that suicide barrier up on aurora?

I could test it out of crap like this keeps up. This is terrible. Escobar is/was a big part of the Angels, now and supposedly in the future.

The poster formerly known as NewLocal.

by Eyebrows on Mar 26, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Side comment:

You ever been by that bridge? It's creepy. I worked less than half a block away from there and watched them clean up the Adobe parking lot every few months.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 26, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not so creepy.

I live right under it across the street from Adobe. Haven't seen anybody jump. (Yet.)

by ryanhealy on Mar 26, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know PDB won't see it.

But nice Avatar.

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've disabled them because they're stupid

but I can see them when I click on a profile. Yours looks porn-y. Note that I don't think this is inherently a bad thing.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

PP's avatar is one...

messed up.....ahem....cough....cough...

Used to be MarinerintheDistrict

by brayden04 on Mar 26, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

when he starts posting here

I'll point it out to him too.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he posts here

I'm quitting Jeff.

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Damn peer pressure...

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Uh... How long have you lived there.

One jumper hit a power line. Another smacked so hard on the concrete they needed a power spray to clean it up. Another was found on a car......

I assume you live near St. James Tower. You must have not lived there long.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 26, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just thought of something

Can we blame this on The Rev? I can read the headlines now:
Annoying Troll Angel Fan Has Karmac Debt Settled By Career Ending Injury to Escobar; Halos Heaven Sends Him to Hell

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 1:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Rev is saying this in the fanshot about in on HH, currently.

The championship

will be that much sweeter having overcome such adversity.

Denial, perhaps?

by HARRYP09 on Mar 26, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ugh, Formatting fails.

Rev is saying this in the fanshot about in on HH, currently.

The championship will be that much sweeter having overcome such adversity.

Denial, perhaps?

by HARRYP09 on Mar 26, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Karmaball

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Mar 26, 2008 1:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow is the definitive word today

That is HUGE news - Also don't like to cheer a career ending injury, but the side effects of said injury? YAAAAY!

by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 1:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well I had the Angels as

what 3-5 games ahead of us in talent? Losing Escobar for the whole year is ~3 wins...

Too bad this will justify Bavasi's dumb trading, but hooray for us.

by Matthew on Mar 26, 2008 1:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

God, seriously.

If we're still not going to get the playoffs this year, I almost hope we lose ~90 games so they can't try to rationalize anything.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 26, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

in the case this team falls short

I hope all the veterans collapse (again) so maybe this time (nope) they learn their lesson (never gonna happen).

by Matthew on Mar 26, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

HOT SHIT!

We could win this with +/- 85 wins. Vlad's no picture of health either, I would be surprised if he started more than a 140 or so games.

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

DH

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 26, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe.

Though I'd lean towards guessing Vlad will cut into Garret's time, not the other way around.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 26, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What I mean is that

Vlad could wear down a bit from playing the field early in the year, and it becomes a problem down the stretch, and as long as he's running around the OF at less than 100% at his age, it opens us up for all sorts of wonderful possiblitites.

//fanboigasam

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's amazing how well that contract worked out for Anaheim

I thought it was stupid at the time.

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

you mean the old one I presume?

the 07-09 one isn't looking too hot.

by Matthew on Mar 26, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting quote from ESPN.com 'preview'

"If everything goes smoothly for the Angels and Mariners, then the Angels are better," an AL GM says. "But if something goes wrong for the Angels -- an equalizer, like an injury -- then Seattle can take them. The Mariners are that close."

Hmmmmm... prophetic.

by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 1:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

couldn't have happened to a nicer fanbase

When I said 'several things have to break right for the mariners to contend' I didn't mean Escobar's shoulder exactly, but... hey we'll take it.

the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 26, 2008 1:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Whoa

I liked the old name, why the switch?

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

superstition

I'm hoping the mariners will be more than that this season.

the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 26, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

SIDE NOTE

Does anyone else find all the -gasm-ing on HH to be a little less than desirable?

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't know

I try to avoid it

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whew.

This is truly a relief for the M's.

Curse you, Detroit Lions!

by Coach Owens on Mar 26, 2008 1:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i prefer this screenname

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No more Will? Back to Coach?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I want everybody (including at other blogs)

to know who I am and since there's now one universial screename... *Shrug*

Curse you, Detroit Lions!

by Coach Owens on Mar 26, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

if you had another account

and want to claim your old diaries and comments you can do that here:

http://www.sbnation.com/account/migrate_accounts

I'm one of the guys that built the new SB Nation

by Trei Brundrett on Mar 26, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I thought this would have been a prefect opportuninty for Coach to fake his death

and start over again with a new identity.

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I thought right: it was the prefect time.

However, you didn't do so... so kudos!

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As someone who gets injured from just about anything

That really blows for the Escobar. Good for the M's obviously, but kind of sucks to know your career is probably over at age 32. I however plan on retiring at 32 as well, so maybe it doesn't suck that much.

http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com

by LantermanC on Mar 26, 2008 2:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hows the Vegas under look now?

I'd get your money in at 91.5 before it starts dropping.

by Matthew on Mar 26, 2008 2:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Curse of the Angels

not only the news about Escobar, but now the special assistant to the GM Preston Gomez (84yrs old), was critically injured when he was hit by a pickup truck at a gas station

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Mar 26, 2008 2:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Ouch

Best wishes for a speedy recovery to the man

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jesus H. Christ

Hope he's going to be okay.

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No relation

And man, it's easy enough to break a hip at 84 just by tripping and falling. To get hit by a damn truck....

I'm Gomez and I write about many things.

by Gomez on Mar 26, 2008 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just ask Deanna.

About getting hit by a truck that is, of course...

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Mar 27, 2008 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now if only Bedard would get his shit together

I don't care if its ST, the guy is doing an aweful job.

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:23 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Spring training doesn't matter

Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

GAY

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 26, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aw thanks.

I've learned lots of useful things here.

Like:

ERA is a bad tool.
Batting Average is misleading

and, of course

Derek Jeter is a lousy defensive shortstop.

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't forget-

Spring Training doesn't matter.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Mar 26, 2008 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can't just deny the truth

Do you actually think the guy is not trying or something out there, just because its ST?

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's tryt his again.

Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Spring training is anti-matter

Spring training is anti-matter
Spring training is anti-matter
Spring training is anti-matter
Spring training is anti-matter
Spring training is anti-matter

I'm Gomez and I write about many things.

by Gomez on Mar 26, 2008 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Considering in one start,

He threw about 50 cutters and one curve...

Yes?

Not to mention that every popup is going for a homer.

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And Willie's in the OF

Giving up ITP HRs...

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So you're basically saying

that he doesn't care, so hes just trying out new things, thats why he sucks.

Making excuses for popups going for homers... ummm what?

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes

Used to be MarinerintheDistrict

by brayden04 on Mar 26, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

just let it go Graham.

You can't save everybody

Used to be MarinerintheDistrict

by brayden04 on Mar 26, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You overvalue agreement

because you imagine a universe where more graham-bots would be a good thing.
i used to do that too.
now i try to stay open to the idea that i'm wrong frequently, even when i'm pretty damn sure i'm right.
it's made me a more boring person, but i tend to be happier than i once was.

by johnbai on Mar 26, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, I've always assumed

That if I ever met a clone of me we'd have a fight to the death. It would be really cool.

"you imagine a universe where more graham-bots would be a good thing.
i used to do that too. "

That's a weird little fantasy you've got there.

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was hoping you'd post 'Wrong'

I'm Gomez and I write about many things.

by Gomez on Mar 26, 2008 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude, what they're saying

is that spring training does not, in fact, matter. If he still sucks come April, then worry.

by Nick S on Mar 26, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Technically...

May.

April is typically hard on Bedard.

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know that

Neither do minor league games, as far as I'm concerned. But they are fairly predictive of the skill of a player I'd say.

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So... are you saying that

Bedard's poor performance is the result of statistical fluctuation?

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was talking about minor league games...

Did Morse bat .519 in minor league games last year?

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You grouped Spring training and minor league games together.

As though they were equivalent. They are not.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 26, 2008 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, so let's go over this:

Spring training games don't matter.
Minor league games don't matter.
Minor league stats are predictive over a reasonable sample size.

Therefore...

Spring training stats are predictive?

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My argument was that

saying that "ST doesn't matter" is not enough to justify that ST is not predictive of future success, as it is evident that minor league games that also don't matter, but are predictive of future success.

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

When we say that...

We don't mean the outcome of the game. We mean that the stats don't matter. They're not a statistically significant sample size and everyone's practising random stuff anyway.

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

and when we say ST doesn't matter

it's because we've looked at, read, and done studies that say ST stats are not predictive of future anything.

by Matthew on Mar 26, 2008 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duh

Still though... look at Beltre

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about him?

Beltre was an excellent player for the club last season.

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is hurting my IQ

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol...

is that statement really appropriate here? c'mon, seriously, my example of Beltre is a valid one of a one-year success that did not continue

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

how exactly do you define

"did not continue"? He hasn't hit as many HR's as in 2004, but that's a lousy way to judge a player...

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Batting average, RBIs

Come to mind. Not that you guys acknowledge those stats, they are just the ones that I remember.

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I acknowledge them

but then I also acknowledge that RBI, especially, is a horrible way to evaluate a player's success

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Batting average is a misleading statistic (Jose Vidro says hello)

RBIs are dependent on the people hitting in front of you. Seen the Mariners offense the last few years?

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Would you actually argue that Beltre

Has played at the same level as a Mariner that he had as a Dodger?

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, that's it.

I'm convinced, you're an Angels fan.

Used to be MarinerintheDistrict

by brayden04 on Mar 26, 2008 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No actually I have been a Mariners fan for 8 years

Visit like 5-6 Mariner forums/discussion boards almost daily

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let me guess....

the PI forum. Sometimes the Seattle Times blog comments....

Used to be MarinerintheDistrict

by brayden04 on Mar 26, 2008 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nope

He's returned to the mean, as many expected him to.

He's still an excellent third baseman.

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Overall?

Definitely.

Park factors, considering, especially...

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually

Its funny that you say that because Ive read this blog fairly regularly for about a year

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jesus fucking christ

You don't K that many batters by fucking luck.

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never said luck

There's a difference between a player who is consistently good from year to year and one that has had only one good year. That second player is more likely to "lose" that skill set in some way.

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bedard has had more than one good year

The others haven't been eye-popping amazing as last season, but he's had a good career.

If he can stay healthy, he'll be fine. Spring training results are absolutely meaningless.

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's exactly what we're saying

because it's what's happening. Why is this so hard to grasp?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or take a look at GS52's previous springs

He blew goat dick during Spring Training but did quite well during the season.

by Ben in Va on Mar 26, 2008 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's trying.

But what you're missing is that he's trying things he'll almost certainly never try in the regular season, because it doesn't matter if he fails in the spring or not. Spring is an entertaining diversion, nothing more.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

5 days....

Then we'll see

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did he actually throw that many cutters in spring training?

What the hell? What's the point of that? He's supposed to practice pitching, not practice throwing one pitch.

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Since the games don't matter

use the innings to work on a specific pitch?

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You honestly don't get it, do you?

Bedard is already a good pitcher, he doesn't need to "practice", at least not in the way you're using it. Unlike 20 years ago, players these days report to camp in game shape, ready to go. Thus, "working themselves into shape" doesn't really happen any more; spring these days is used to try new pitches, and discard them when they don't work, like Bedard with the cutter. I'd be surprised if he threw three cutters a start once the games start to matter - as you've seen, it ain't working so good for him.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alright if thats true, okay

It just seems kind of absurd that you would pitch completely differently in ST and then expect to be solid from the start of the season with your regular style of pitching, where you actually mix pitch and location.

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Experimenting happens

because the outcome of the games doesn't matter, pitchers are more prone to experiment, because they know their "regular" stuff is solid; for instance in a situation where, in July, they may throw a fastball outside to a certain hitter in a certain count, in March they may try to throw a cutter up and in, just to see if a hitter will bite. If not, no harm done; if so, they put it in their pocket for the summer.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that Dave from USSM covered this pretty nicely in his interview

on KJR on Monday. You can find it here in the "Groz OnDemand" section in the left column.

Man will I look like an ass if I'm wrong about that one.

by ningwers on Mar 26, 2008 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can we drop the ban-hammer on this guy?

I wasn't aware we allowed stuff like this here.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, at least not retarded disagreement.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So my concerns about Bedard's performance

based on his entire spring training are "retarded"?

That might be a slight exxageration

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They're not retarded

they're just completely unfounded.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They're not retarded

Just based on ignorance of what spring training performances consist of

by ningwers on Mar 26, 2008 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alright, I admit ignorance

I don't exactly read a ton of player interviews and such to find out what exactly their strategies are in ST (haven't seen this kind of info anyway). I assumed they were always pitching like they would in the regular season, since that's how I thought you would best get prepared for the regular season.

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now you know

No worries. It's probably best at this point to just let the whole matter drop.

by ningwers on Mar 26, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Erik Bedard throws 90% fastball/curveballs.

According to Jason Churchill, he's thrown only 23 curves all spring training. He's not pitching to get outs--it's spring training.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reggie Willits also hurt

With height strain. Apparently he grew an inch last night and it's thrown him completely off.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 26, 2008 2:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Puberty's tough

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I laughed. Well done.

New 2.0 sig coming soon.

by Goose on Mar 26, 2008 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

but Willits is still scrappier

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whatchoo talkin about Willis?

Gary Coleman had his own cartoon, plus he worked as a security guard. That proves his (s)crappiness.

by Ben in Va on Mar 26, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My two cents

even with him out the M's still blow in too many areas to take the divsion.

by InSpokane on Mar 26, 2008 2:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

interesting problem

as I was scrolling through this thread (using the z key to hop through the last 40 comments) I replied to one of graham's posts above. when i finished reading the thread, i scrolled back up and saw that graham had replied, but his reply wasn't yellow... and scrolling through with the z key never highlighted his new comment.

by johnbai on Mar 26, 2008 2:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I'm having it too

Z's occasionally not jumping upwards.

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It did. It just hightlighted it retroactively

So most likely you cleared it while pressing z, didn't actually move on to the next comment like you thought you did, pressed z again and continued.

They are aware of this problem I believe.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 26, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey vkut79

Quit worrying about the "retarded" accusations.
Watch this instead, it'll make ya laugh.

by johnbai on Mar 26, 2008 3:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

How about this -

Spring Training matters for players trying to make the team, because you know they are going all out.

by vkut79 on Mar 26, 2008 3:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

But the players they are competing against aren't...

so wouldn't that make their efforts tainted?

Used to be MarinerintheDistrict

by brayden04 on Mar 26, 2008 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Most of the time the decision is made based mainly on other circumstances

like whether or not the player has options remaining (see Morse, Baek) or team needs (see Rowland-Smith)

by ningwers on Mar 26, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In defense of spring training

Scouting observations from it sometimes matter a little bit.

But no more than, say, the AFL.

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Arena Football League?

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, silly.

American Football League.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Mar 26, 2008 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I still have a good feeling about the Colts

By gum, they'll whoop Namath and his long hippy locks!

by ningwers on Mar 26, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Johnny Unitas

Now there's a haircut you can set your watch to.

by Pet Rock on Mar 26, 2008 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Player performance in spring training matters only for preparation and entertainment purposes.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It might matter to the players

I'm sure Morse is pretty excited about is .800 BA and would be pretty upset if he hit .100, on the flip side I doubt Bedard really cares one way or the other.

Overall ST numbers don't mean much, just as pre-season numbers don't mean much in the NFL and NBA...well the NBA doesn't matter in general.

by MFAN on Mar 26, 2008 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Garland weren't on the team,

it probably would make the M's the favorite, because with Lackey also out the Angels would be going entirely with a rotation of young pitchers and quadruple-A journeymen. With Garland...I don't know, you guys don't believe in veteran leadership, but it makes ME feel better. >_>

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 4:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

4 straight years of 200+ innings

3 straight of ERA+ over 100. I realize some of you are perfectionists who accept nothing less than Ace status from your pitchers or they're a waste of money, but with Lackey gone a month, Escobar out indefinitely, (maybe forever) and no one else on our presumptive starting rotation over the age of 26 or with more than 3 years MLB experience, Garland is a solid, stabilizing presence in the rotation.

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I may regret asking, but why not?

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ERA(+) doesn't correlate year to year very well at all

Dave Cameron's got a pitching primer up on USSM that's really good reading.

In the meantime, here's Garland broken down into his component stats.

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Garland is a below-average innings-eater

That's all he's ever been. Some years he's just been lucky.

by Llewdor on Mar 26, 2008 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's actually been slightly above average, going by his performance compared to league average.

Also, his ERA is likely to sink a little no matter what because US Cellular is a hitters park and Angels Stadium is not.

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, he's bad.

It won't go down simply from moving parks. His tRA was over 5. 4.50 is probably as close as you can get to a realistic, optimistic prediction.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't his tRA ranked 56 out of 120?

But then again, I suppose if I can't convince you guys the M's pitchers are better than you all generally give them credit for, I'm not going to have any luck convincing you the Angels pitchers are. :/

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

tRA* is the regressed numbers. That has him at 90th out of 120.

On the subject of our pitchers sucking, Garland has a decent shot to be better than Washburn at least...

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tell you what.

If Garland's ERA is better than Washburn's at the end of the year, I will be very happy.

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not very fair.

Have you seen the outfield defense behind Washburn?

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought ESPN

voted Seattle's defense the best in the AL? *Evil grin*

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's actually likely

tRA* is roughly equivalent and the Angels have a better defence.

You've probably got a 60/40 shot of that working out.

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jon Garland is a terrible pitcher with an albatross contract.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought it was like 2/24

Oh well. Still too expensive

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

When your talking one year contracts, IMO the money is kinda irrelavent

so long as the club can afford it, which obviously the Angels can.

New 2.0 sig coming soon.

by Goose on Mar 26, 2008 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, a horrible pitcher with a career ERA+ of 106

and 1 year left on that albatross contract. Heavens, the Angels are surely doomed. -_-;

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ERA+ will win your comments dismissal here.

If you want to be listened to, I'd suggest using something else.

by Matthew on Mar 26, 2008 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Beyond a certain point, all pitching predictors suck.

I can say with some (but certainly not complete) confidence that Garland's ERA will be above 4 and below 5. Anything more specific and you've essentially got a better than 50% chance you're wrong. I just use ones that make me feel better.

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That may be true

but ERA+ sucks more than the others.

A great deal more.

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just because ERA sucks more

doesn't mean FIP doesn't still suck as a predictor.

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems I stirred up a hornets nest.

Fine, you win, Garland sucks and the M's are now favorites in the division. Don't choke under all that pressure, now. :P

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No! I take it back!

Garland's going to be as good as his defense and ballpark will let him. For your sake, you better hope for less Vlad in RF. For our sake, I'm hoping for much much more.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry dude

Measuring pitching is something we're all (me most of all) super nerdy about. :P

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Then there is Matthew

Who is on a whole new plane of pitching stat love.

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No fight?

I'm disappointed :(

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

much like Graham's pony

I may appear docile, but carry an angry streak when provoked. It's best to soothe my ego at all times. Otherwise you'll suffer the same fate as rljaws.

by Matthew on Mar 26, 2008 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duly noted.

You uh...have a very nice posting style?

Seriously though really did like the work you posted a little while ago. Great stuff!

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The site design may have changed...

...but the site is sorta back to normal...

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Precisely!

Some things refuse to change.

by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly.

Why in heavens name would you want the M's to be the favorites? You do much better when the Angels are. ;)

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Mar 26, 2008 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

I don't use FIP either ;)

by Graham on Mar 26, 2008 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This Venn diagram says a lot.

Photobucket

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 26, 2008 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I say this one's better

I'm Gomez and I write about many things.

by Gomez on Mar 26, 2008 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

FUCK

I'm Gomez and I write about many things.

by Gomez on Mar 26, 2008 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For what it's worth

I thought you made a pretty gosh darn good effort there.

by BrianL on Mar 26, 2008 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I figured out I CAN use ST to predict regular season

ST: Arm falls off

Reg Season: You wont pitch.

done.

by PShwa on Mar 26, 2008 4:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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