Seattle Mariners: Division Favorites?
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 1:05 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners News, Good
Email
PrintNot taking pleasure in somebody else's injury blah blah blah we're not bad people yada yada and so on. This is huge news.
TEMPE, Ariz. -- Pitcher Kelvim Escobar, an 18-game winner last season, revealed this morning that he has a tear in his shoulder, an injury that could require season-ending surgery and, possibly, end his career.
"I'm concerned, I don't know what's going to happen, I don't even know if I'll be able to pitch again," said Escobar, who, just a week into his throwing program, was shut down Sunday because of shoulder pain.
Over 190 innings, the difference between a 3.75 RA from Escobar and a 5.00 RA from some guy is 26 runs. There's basically no possible way that this doesn't make the Angels substantially worse.
At the rate it's been going we're going to win this thing by attrition.
Feeling guilty? Whatever. Go ahead and crack a smile.
332 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I'm feeling way too good
For guilty to even pop into my head. I'm sadistic, and completely ok with it.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
Well...
I never like to read "career ending injury" no matter who the player is, but hey - a win is a win.
...and now I'm here
I don't like it either
and I've always been a pretty big fan of Kelvim Escobar, but my love of the Mariners is overriding everything else at this point.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Here's what I can say:
They're paid millions because they risk injury - so that fact that he's out for the year: HAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Career ending, sad. So until we know he won't come back (in which case, I'll feel a little bad for him) we can still revel in this. Agreed?
...and now I'm here
Even if it's career ending
His "suffering" will be the ability to retire at 32 with an 8-figure bank account. Gotta put it all in perspective.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
Career ending is still sad.
Injury is "who gives a shit, go Mariners!"
...and now I'm here
"I'm still young. I'll be 32 in two weeks, but retirement is getting into my head, because it's hard to rehab. I want to be out there playing, and I've done everything I can do to be healthy."
wow.
Wow is right. I wonder why he's already giving up?
Prospects are under-valued.
don't think he is
Sounds more like the doctors are hinting that it's so bad, even with surgery it might not repair enough to be a pitcher.
The poster formerly known as NewLocal.
That sucks. It helps the M's, but you hate to see anyone injured that badly.
Prospects are under-valued.
That's generally true for about half
of all shoulder tears. There have only been like 4 pitchers who've returned to their previous levels of performance after major shoulder surgery.
Gil Meche is one of them.
It just keeps getting worse, doesn't it?
If I'm an Angels fan, I'd consider jumping off a bridge right now. If Lackey's injury ends up being worse than previously thought, you'd have to think that LAA is in a heap of trouble.
Never like to see "career ending injury" though.
how long until they get that suicide barrier up on aurora?
I could test it out of crap like this keeps up. This is terrible. Escobar is/was a big part of the Angels, now and supposedly in the future.
The poster formerly known as NewLocal.
Side comment:
You ever been by that bridge? It's creepy. I worked less than half a block away from there and watched them clean up the Adobe parking lot every few months.
...and now I'm here
It's not so creepy.
I live right under it across the street from Adobe. Haven't seen anybody jump. (Yet.)
I know PDB won't see it.
But nice Avatar.
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I've disabled them because they're stupid
but I can see them when I click on a profile. Yours looks porn-y. Note that I don't think this is inherently a bad thing.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
when he starts posting here
I'll point it out to him too.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
If he posts here
I'm quitting Jeff.
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Damn peer pressure...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Uh... How long have you lived there.
One jumper hit a power line. Another smacked so hard on the concrete they needed a power spray to clean it up. Another was found on a car......
I assume you live near St. James Tower. You must have not lived there long.
...and now I'm here
I like Escobar though..sad
I fucking hate you Mariners
I expect it to happen every time he throws
But his arm has yet to fly off and take out some poor bastard sitting in the third base stands.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
If I was a pitching coach
that deliver would scare the bajeebus out of me.
I just thought of something
Can we blame this on The Rev? I can read the headlines now:
Annoying Troll Angel Fan Has Karmac Debt Settled By Career Ending Injury to Escobar; Halos Heaven Sends Him to Hell
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
Rev is saying this in the fanshot about in on HH, currently.
The championship
will be that much sweeter having overcome such adversity.
Denial, perhaps?
Wow is the definitive word today
That is HUGE news - Also don't like to cheer a career ending injury, but the side effects of said injury? YAAAAY!
by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 1:24 PM PDT reply actions
Well I had the Angels as
what 3-5 games ahead of us in talent? Losing Escobar for the whole year is ~3 wins...
Too bad this will justify Bavasi's dumb trading, but hooray for us.
God, seriously.
If we're still not going to get the playoffs this year, I almost hope we lose ~90 games so they can't try to rationalize anything.
...and now I'm here
in the case this team falls short
I hope all the veterans collapse (again) so maybe this time (nope) they learn their lesson (never gonna happen).
HOT SHIT!
We could win this with +/- 85 wins. Vlad's no picture of health either, I would be surprised if he started more than a 140 or so games.
Signatures are for Communists.
Garret Anderson will cut into some of that time.
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe.
Though I'd lean towards guessing Vlad will cut into Garret's time, not the other way around.
...and now I'm here
What I mean is that
Vlad could wear down a bit from playing the field early in the year, and it becomes a problem down the stretch, and as long as he's running around the OF at less than 100% at his age, it opens us up for all sorts of wonderful possiblitites.
//fanboigasam
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
It's amazing how well that contract worked out for Anaheim
I thought it was stupid at the time.
Signatures are for Communists.
I didn't realise how good Escobar was at the time
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
you mean the old one I presume?
the 07-09 one isn't looking too hot.
Interesting quote from ESPN.com 'preview'
"If everything goes smoothly for the Angels and Mariners, then the Angels are better," an AL GM says. "But if something goes wrong for the Angels -- an equalizer, like an injury -- then Seattle can take them. The Mariners are that close."
Hmmmmm... prophetic.
by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 1:31 PM PDT reply actions
Steve Philips?
I fucking hate you Mariners
couldn't have happened to a nicer fanbase
When I said 'several things have to break right for the mariners to contend' I didn't mean Escobar's shoulder exactly, but... hey we'll take it.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 26, 2008 1:35 PM PDT reply actions
Whoa
I liked the old name, why the switch?
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
superstition
I'm hoping the mariners will be more than that this season.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 26, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions
SIDE NOTE
Does anyone else find all the -gasm-ing on HH to be a little less than desirable?
Signatures are for Communists.
It was the first association that came to mind.
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
New horizons in porn
Money Shot into the back of a room fan = instant bukkake.
by Jordan of Boise on Mar 26, 2008 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
I really wish I hadn't searched for that.
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
i prefer this screenname
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I want everybody (including at other blogs)
to know who I am and since there's now one universial screename... *Shrug*
Curse you, Detroit Lions!
No, Shrug is an admin at Field Gulls...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
if you had another account
and want to claim your old diaries and comments you can do that here:
http://www.sbnation.com/account/migrate_accounts
I'm one of the guys that built the new SB Nation
by Trei Brundrett on Mar 26, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I thought this would have been a prefect opportuninty for Coach to fake his death
and start over again with a new identity.
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
No, I thought right: it was the prefect time.
However, you didn't do so... so kudos!
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
As someone who gets injured from just about anything
That really blows for the Escobar. Good for the M's obviously, but kind of sucks to know your career is probably over at age 32. I however plan on retiring at 32 as well, so maybe it doesn't suck that much.
http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com
Hows the Vegas under look now?
I'd get your money in at 91.5 before it starts dropping.
that's a "sure thing" bet if ever saw one
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Curse of the Angels
not only the news about Escobar, but now the special assistant to the GM Preston Gomez (84yrs old), was critically injured when he was hit by a pickup truck at a gas station
Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!
Ouch
Best wishes for a speedy recovery to the man
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
No relation
And man, it's easy enough to break a hip at 84 just by tripping and falling. To get hit by a damn truck....
I'm Gomez and I write about many things.
Just ask Deanna.
About getting hit by a truck that is, of course...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 27, 2008 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Now if only Bedard would get his shit together
I don't care if its ST, the guy is doing an aweful job.
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
You're doing lots of capital letters today
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Finally found the shift key.
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Aw thanks.
I've learned lots of useful things here.
Like:
ERA is a bad tool.
Batting Average is misleading
and, of course
Derek Jeter is a lousy defensive shortstop.
Don't forget-
Spring Training doesn't matter.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
You can't just deny the truth
Do you actually think the guy is not trying or something out there, just because its ST?
Let's tryt his again.
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
Spring training doesn't matter
you get a B+ in typing
would have been an A except for the earlier unpleasantness. Way to rally.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Spring training is anti-matter
Spring training is anti-matter
Spring training is anti-matter
Spring training is anti-matter
Spring training is anti-matter
Spring training is anti-matter
I'm Gomez and I write about many things.
Considering in one start,
He threw about 50 cutters and one curve...
Yes?
Not to mention that every popup is going for a homer.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions
And Willie's in the OF
Giving up ITP HRs...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions
So you're basically saying
that he doesn't care, so hes just trying out new things, thats why he sucks.
Making excuses for popups going for homers... ummm what?
You overvalue agreement
because you imagine a universe where more graham-bots would be a good thing.
i used to do that too.
now i try to stay open to the idea that i'm wrong frequently, even when i'm pretty damn sure i'm right.
it's made me a more boring person, but i tend to be happier than i once was.
Actually, I've always assumed
That if I ever met a clone of me we'd have a fight to the death. It would be really cool.
"you imagine a universe where more graham-bots would be a good thing.
i used to do that too. "
That's a weird little fantasy you've got there.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Dude, what they're saying
is that spring training does not, in fact, matter. If he still sucks come April, then worry.
Technically...
May.
April is typically hard on Bedard.
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I know that
Neither do minor league games, as far as I'm concerned. But they are fairly predictive of the skill of a player I'd say.
So... are you saying that
Bedard's poor performance is the result of statistical fluctuation?
I'm saying Morse's .519 batting average is clearly not indicative of his actual skills
unlike your previous comment suggests.
...and now I'm here
I was talking about minor league games...
Did Morse bat .519 in minor league games last year?
You grouped Spring training and minor league games together.
As though they were equivalent. They are not.
...and now I'm here
Ok, so let's go over this:
Spring training games don't matter.
Minor league games don't matter.
Minor league stats are predictive over a reasonable sample size.
Therefore...
Spring training stats are predictive?
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
My argument was that
saying that "ST doesn't matter" is not enough to justify that ST is not predictive of future success, as it is evident that minor league games that also don't matter, but are predictive of future success.
When we say that...
We don't mean the outcome of the game. We mean that the stats don't matter. They're not a statistically significant sample size and everyone's practising random stuff anyway.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
and when we say ST doesn't matter
it's because we've looked at, read, and done studies that say ST stats are not predictive of future anything.
HE'S BETTER THAN TED WILLIAMS OMGWTFBBQ!!!11!!
by eponymous_coward on Mar 26, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
only because he's still alive
williams needs to thaw out and then he'll be better than Morse.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Bedard struck out 30% of opposing batters last year
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
What about him?
Beltre was an excellent player for the club last season.
This is hurting my IQ
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
lol...
is that statement really appropriate here? c'mon, seriously, my example of Beltre is a valid one of a one-year success that did not continue
yes, one year is not a large sample size
you using ST stats to try and prove that though is...well...retarded.
how exactly do you define
"did not continue"? He hasn't hit as many HR's as in 2004, but that's a lousy way to judge a player...
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Batting average, RBIs
Come to mind. Not that you guys acknowledge those stats, they are just the ones that I remember.
I acknowledge them
but then I also acknowledge that RBI, especially, is a horrible way to evaluate a player's success
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Batting average is a misleading statistic (Jose Vidro says hello)
RBIs are dependent on the people hitting in front of you. Seen the Mariners offense the last few years?
Would you actually argue that Beltre
Has played at the same level as a Mariner that he had as a Dodger?
No actually I have been a Mariners fan for 8 years
Visit like 5-6 Mariner forums/discussion boards almost daily
Let me guess....
the PI forum. Sometimes the Seattle Times blog comments....
Used to be MarinerintheDistrict
Overall?
Definitely.
Park factors, considering, especially...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
That's not to say that one year is necessarily a good predictor either
but it's better than one spring training
Jesus fucking christ
You don't K that many batters by fucking luck.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I never said luck
There's a difference between a player who is consistently good from year to year and one that has had only one good year. That second player is more likely to "lose" that skill set in some way.
Bedard has had more than one good year
The others haven't been eye-popping amazing as last season, but he's had a good career.
If he can stay healthy, he'll be fine. Spring training results are absolutely meaningless.
Aw jeez. have a pony *and* a doggie
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
My MS paint skillz are lacking
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions
That's exactly what we're saying
because it's what's happening. Why is this so hard to grasp?
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
I don't always believe what other people say
if I have reason to think otherwise.
Or take a look at GS52's previous springs
He blew goat dick during Spring Training but did quite well during the season.
He's trying.
But what you're missing is that he's trying things he'll almost certainly never try in the regular season, because it doesn't matter if he fails in the spring or not. Spring is an entertaining diversion, nothing more.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
If Bedard plans to throw 99.8% cutters in the regular season
Then I'll be worried.
Now? It doesn't matter.
Did he actually throw that many cutters in spring training?
What the hell? What's the point of that? He's supposed to practice pitching, not practice throwing one pitch.
If you want to improve your worst pitch
now is the time.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Not the same as facing live hitters.
Signatures are for Communists.
by JI on Mar 26, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Since the games don't matter
use the innings to work on a specific pitch?
You honestly don't get it, do you?
Bedard is already a good pitcher, he doesn't need to "practice", at least not in the way you're using it. Unlike 20 years ago, players these days report to camp in game shape, ready to go. Thus, "working themselves into shape" doesn't really happen any more; spring these days is used to try new pitches, and discard them when they don't work, like Bedard with the cutter. I'd be surprised if he threw three cutters a start once the games start to matter - as you've seen, it ain't working so good for him.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Alright if thats true, okay
It just seems kind of absurd that you would pitch completely differently in ST and then expect to be solid from the start of the season with your regular style of pitching, where you actually mix pitch and location.
Experimenting happens
because the outcome of the games doesn't matter, pitchers are more prone to experiment, because they know their "regular" stuff is solid; for instance in a situation where, in July, they may throw a fastball outside to a certain hitter in a certain count, in March they may try to throw a cutter up and in, just to see if a hitter will bite. If not, no harm done; if so, they put it in their pocket for the summer.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
I think that Dave from USSM covered this pretty nicely in his interview
on KJR on Monday. You can find it here in the "Groz OnDemand" section in the left column.
Man will I look like an ass if I'm wrong about that one.
Can we drop the ban-hammer on this guy?
I wasn't aware we allowed stuff like this here.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Allowed discussion where there was disagreement?
Hmm thats interesting.
Well, at least not retarded disagreement.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
So my concerns about Bedard's performance
based on his entire spring training are "retarded"?
That might be a slight exxageration
Trying to figure out what he's going to do in the regular season based on spring training?
I'd call that retarded.
They're not retarded
they're just completely unfounded.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Alright, I admit ignorance
I don't exactly read a ton of player interviews and such to find out what exactly their strategies are in ST (haven't seen this kind of info anyway). I assumed they were always pitching like they would in the regular season, since that's how I thought you would best get prepared for the regular season.
Erik Bedard throws 90% fastball/curveballs.
According to Jason Churchill, he's thrown only 23 curves all spring training. He's not pitching to get outs--it's spring training.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Reggie Willits also hurt
With height strain. Apparently he grew an inch last night and it's thrown him completely off.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 26, 2008 2:30 PM PDT reply actions
Whatchoo talkin about Willis?
Gary Coleman had his own cartoon, plus he worked as a security guard. That proves his (s)crappiness.
My two cents
even with him out the M's still blow in too many areas to take the divsion.
interesting problem
as I was scrolling through this thread (using the z key to hop through the last 40 comments) I replied to one of graham's posts above. when i finished reading the thread, i scrolled back up and saw that graham had replied, but his reply wasn't yellow... and scrolling through with the z key never highlighted his new comment.
Yeah, I'm having it too
Z's occasionally not jumping upwards.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
It did. It just hightlighted it retroactively
So most likely you cleared it while pressing z, didn't actually move on to the next comment like you thought you did, pressed z again and continued.
They are aware of this problem I believe.
...and now I'm here
One of the original founders.
...and now I'm here
Where's Trent?
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm wondering where Deanna is...
Come back! We miss you.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
She'll be in town in April
I think I read that on one of her blogs, anyway
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
L43 was originally Jeff, Devin, and Trent
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
but Jeff ran Leone over with a car
when Beltre was signed.
Go Fo Broke!
I thought Red ran Leone over with a car
when Beltre was signed.
there was evidence of this at one point
photographic evidence I believe
Go Fo Broke!
Jeff ran him over the day after the signing...
We hadn't seen the first of Red until the next season...
First time I saw Red on TV
I was convinced he was a few french fries short of a happy meal.
Yes, yes there was...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 27, 2008 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
How about this -
Spring Training matters for players trying to make the team, because you know they are going all out.
But the players they are competing against aren't...
so wouldn't that make their efforts tainted?
Used to be MarinerintheDistrict
Most of the time the decision is made based mainly on other circumstances
like whether or not the player has options remaining (see Morse, Baek) or team needs (see Rowland-Smith)
In defense of spring training
Scouting observations from it sometimes matter a little bit.
But no more than, say, the AFL.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions
The Arena Football League?
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions
No, silly.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Mar 26, 2008 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Johnny Unitas
Now there's a haircut you can set your watch to.
Player performance in spring training matters only for preparation and entertainment purposes.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions
It might matter to the players
I'm sure Morse is pretty excited about is .800 BA and would be pretty upset if he hit .100, on the flip side I doubt Bedard really cares one way or the other.
Overall ST numbers don't mean much, just as pre-season numbers don't mean much in the NFL and NBA...well the NBA doesn't matter in general.
If Garland weren't on the team,
it probably would make the M's the favorite, because with Lackey also out the Angels would be going entirely with a rotation of young pitchers and quadruple-A journeymen. With Garland...I don't know, you guys don't believe in veteran leadership, but it makes ME feel better. >_>
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
4 straight years of 200+ innings
3 straight of ERA+ over 100. I realize some of you are perfectionists who accept nothing less than Ace status from your pitchers or they're a waste of money, but with Lackey gone a month, Escobar out indefinitely, (maybe forever) and no one else on our presumptive starting rotation over the age of 26 or with more than 3 years MLB experience, Garland is a solid, stabilizing presence in the rotation.
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
ERA(+) doesn't correlate year to year very well at all
Dave Cameron's got a pitching primer up on USSM that's really good reading.
In the meantime, here's Garland broken down into his component stats.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Garland is a below-average innings-eater
That's all he's ever been. Some years he's just been lucky.
He's actually been slightly above average, going by his performance compared to league average.
Also, his ERA is likely to sink a little no matter what because US Cellular is a hitters park and Angels Stadium is not.
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
No, he's bad.
It won't go down simply from moving parks. His tRA was over 5. 4.50 is probably as close as you can get to a realistic, optimistic prediction.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't his tRA ranked 56 out of 120?
But then again, I suppose if I can't convince you guys the M's pitchers are better than you all generally give them credit for, I'm not going to have any luck convincing you the Angels pitchers are. :/
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
tRA* is the regressed numbers. That has him at 90th out of 120.
On the subject of our pitchers sucking, Garland has a decent shot to be better than Washburn at least...
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Tell you what.
If Garland's ERA is better than Washburn's at the end of the year, I will be very happy.
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
That's not very fair.
Have you seen the outfield defense behind Washburn?
I thought ESPN
voted Seattle's defense the best in the AL? *Evil grin*
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
That's actually likely
tRA* is roughly equivalent and the Angels have a better defence.
You've probably got a 60/40 shot of that working out.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Jon Garland is a terrible pitcher with an albatross contract.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought it was like 2/24
Oh well. Still too expensive
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Mar 26, 2008 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions
When your talking one year contracts, IMO the money is kinda irrelavent
so long as the club can afford it, which obviously the Angels can.
New 2.0 sig coming soon.
Yeah
This is why the Weaver deal was fine for us.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, a horrible pitcher with a career ERA+ of 106
and 1 year left on that albatross contract. Heavens, the Angels are surely doomed. -_-;
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
ERA+ will win your comments dismissal here.
If you want to be listened to, I'd suggest using something else.
Beyond a certain point, all pitching predictors suck.
I can say with some (but certainly not complete) confidence that Garland's ERA will be above 4 and below 5. Anything more specific and you've essentially got a better than 50% chance you're wrong. I just use ones that make me feel better.
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
That may be true
but ERA+ sucks more than the others.
A great deal more.
Just because ERA sucks more
doesn't mean FIP doesn't still suck as a predictor.
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
Seems I stirred up a hornets nest.
Fine, you win, Garland sucks and the M's are now favorites in the division. Don't choke under all that pressure, now. :P
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
No! I take it back!
Garland's going to be as good as his defense and ballpark will let him. For your sake, you better hope for less Vlad in RF. For our sake, I'm hoping for much much more.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 26, 2008 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Sorry dude
Measuring pitching is something we're all (me most of all) super nerdy about. :P
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Then there is Matthew
Who is on a whole new plane of pitching stat love.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions
much like Graham's pony
I may appear docile, but carry an angry streak when provoked. It's best to soothe my ego at all times. Otherwise you'll suffer the same fate as rljaws.
Duly noted.
You uh...have a very nice posting style?
Seriously though really did like the work you posted a little while ago. Great stuff!
The site design may have changed...
...but the site is sorta back to normal...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Mar 26, 2008 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Precisely!
Some things refuse to change.
by seattlesundevil on Mar 26, 2008 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly.
Why in heavens name would you want the M's to be the favorites? You do much better when the Angels are. ;)
*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!
For what it's worth
I thought you made a pretty gosh darn good effort there.
I figured out I CAN use ST to predict regular season
ST: Arm falls off
Reg Season: You wont pitch.
done.
ST: You're Chris Snelling
Reg Season: You won't play
:(
by eponymous_coward on Mar 26, 2008 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I've always wanted
To be able to respond to comments with them.
And now I can. I know it's stupid, but they let me do it.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 26, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
