Community Projection Results: Kenji Johjima

by Jeff on Mar 24, 2008 2:07 PM PDT in Community Projections

Time to start flying through these things. I'll be covering the hitters; Dave's taking care of the pitchers. 2007 numbers are listed in parentheses.

AB: 471 (485)
2B: 26 (29)
3B: 0 (0)
HR: 14 (14)
HBP: 9 (11)
BB: 21 (15)
K: 47 (41)
SB: 1 (0)
CS: 2 (2)
GB%: 46 (46)

BA: .283 (.287)
OBP: .325 (.322)
SLG: .433 (.433)
IsoPa: .042 (.035)
IsoPo: .150 (.146)

And so we kick off the projections with a guy who's basically been the same player in both of his seasons since coming over. Scintillating. You guys expect a whole lot more of the same, with only two differences:

BB%, 2007: 2.9%
BB%, 2008: 4.1%

K%, 2007: 8.0%
K%, 2008: 9.4%

The community thinks Kenji's going to set career highs in walks and strikeouts. Not that it's particularly difficult for a player who doesn't walk or strike out to set new career highs in walks and strikeouts, but this is interesting, and it might indicate either (A) acknowledgment that Kenji's getting older, (B) subconscious (or deliberate I guess) regression to the mean, or (C) randomness. Then again though, since the final batting line is consistent with Kenji's 2006 and 2007, I suppose the means are less significant than the ends. So here's to OPS consistency.

2008's going to be an important summer. Not only because the organization has invested a lot in its effort to win now, but also because what Kenji does in his contract year could go a long way towards determining the shape of Jeff Clement's future in the big leagues. So with that in mind, one thing's for sure: following Kenji's season won't be nearly as dull as reading what we think it'll look like.

0 recs | Comment 22 comments

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Comments

1st comment..wahoo!

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Mar 24, 2008 2:09 PM PDT 0 recs

Here's to one final season in Seattle, Kenji.

"You know, as that was coming out of my mouth, I knew that it was wrong."

by JI on Mar 24, 2008 2:14 PM PDT 0 recs

What are you talking about?

He is going to be a great Jamie Burke!

by Wilder83 on Mar 24, 2008 2:36 PM PDT up 0 recs

Please test free agency Kenji.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 24, 2008 2:35 PM PDT 0 recs

that probably ends in Kenji being resigned

at 5/75

"You know, as that was coming out of my mouth, I knew that it was wrong."

by JI on Mar 24, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

Or

Thrown a 6/100 deal by the Royals.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Mar 24, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

I will give everybody on this blog 5 dollars

If Kenji isn't on this team in 2009.

by Robert on Mar 24, 2008 8:01 PM PDT up 0 recs

I already tried that

turns out people don't take it too well when they find out you were being hyperbolic.

by Jeff on Mar 24, 2008 8:06 PM PDT up 0 recs

<still waiting>

by Matthew on Mar 24, 2008 8:07 PM PDT up 0 recs

You lead the LL caravan to SD in June

and I'll buy you $5 of beer. Which, given your taste, should equal about two-thirds of one.

by Jeff on Mar 24, 2008 8:16 PM PDT up 0 recs

Crazy hyperbolic bets won by Jeff: 0

Crazy hyperbolic bets won by Robert: 1

I like my chances.

by Robert on Mar 25, 2008 8:06 AM PDT up 0 recs

noted

"You know, as that was coming out of my mouth, I knew that it was wrong."

by JI on Mar 24, 2008 8:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

Not really sharing people's enthusiasm

for letting Kenji walk. Assuming it's a short term contract at a reasonable price, why not? I'm not too confident in Clement's ability to stick at catcher full time. I could see Clement getting the majority of time there, but Kenji would make an awesome "backup".

by JLC on Mar 24, 2008 3:25 PM PDT 0 recs

True.

He would also make an awesome, better paid starter for a team that does not have a good catcher. I see no reason he'd sign a lower paying contract to be a backup catcher with Seattle.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 24, 2008 3:27 PM PDT up 0 recs

I don't think Kenji is in it for the money

He could've signed a better contract on the open market when he came over here. I'm not saying he's married to Seattle, but he's not looking for anything long term. After signing he said he'd like to finish his career in Japan after playing in the states for a few years.

I wouldn't make him a backup per se, I'd just decrease his playing time behind the dish and cycle him and Jeff Clement between C and DH.

If he can get a huge contract elsewhere then let him walk. He's not getting anymore than Posada did, that's for sure.

by JLC on Mar 24, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up 0 recs

I don't disagree with your premise.

Only with your result. If he plans to stay in the US, he'll find a place that pays him or that he can play full time. If he is not, he'll go back to Japan. He has no reason to stay here as a backup. Even if he did play more often than Burke did.

Cycling with DH is fine with me if that's the ideal situation for the Mariners, but that's a different issue - more to do with the Mariners themselves rather than Johjima's contract and status.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Mar 24, 2008 3:58 PM PDT up 0 recs

Hmm

A Joh/Clement C/DH platoon wouldn't be horrible at first glance. Clement seems to thrive doing that with Johnson down in Tacoma, and it would help keep both of them fresh. Maybe give Joh a 1-2 year deal under that assumption.

Some questions that linger:
Where does that leave Vidro (assuming he vests his 09 option)?
Would Joh, a guy who's all about consistency, be ok with the C/DH split?
How do we really feel about giving a substantial cut of DH ABs to an (aging) guy who hits a very steady 760 OPS with moderate power and no speed? The only DH with >250 AB last season who hit below that were Piazza and Sweeney - both injured.

I like Joh, and I can't wait to see Clement in Safeco... But if I'm the Mariners, I say "thanks Kenji, here's an appreciation night with a slightly racist rally bandana giveaway" and let him go where he pleases after this season -- provided Clement doesn't implode prior to then. His value with that 760 OPS is at C, not at DH.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Mar 24, 2008 4:44 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'd happily sign Kenji to a 2/12 type of deal

and have Kenji and Clement split 50/50 time at C next year with Clement getting maybe 25% of the DH PA. Then 2 yrs from now it could go to a 25/75 split at C and give Clement 25% at DH to make him an everyday guy in the lineup.

by Edgar for Pres on Mar 24, 2008 6:32 PM PDT 0 recs

I think he starts to decline this year

but this is only based on his age.

by Mariner John on Mar 24, 2008 7:54 PM PDT 0 recs

Kenji's projected walk rate

might be influenced by other projection tools. PECOTA, for example, predicts he'll double his walk rate, just as it thought he would last year (he didn't). I suspect this is true because Kenji just doesn't walk at all, and that's unusual, so his comps tend to walk more than he does, and that bends the projection.

by Llewdor on Mar 25, 2008 9:54 AM PDT 0 recs