Season Projection Data from RLY

by DCMariner on Mar 24, 2008 1:35 PM PDT

Replacement Level Yankees has a post up with summary statistics from 1000 simulated Diamond Mind seasons using 6 different projection systems (CHONE, DMB, Hardball Times, PECOTA, ZiPs, CAIRO). Put the kids to bed and see what you think, as it ain't pretty.

Replacement Level Yankees Blog

Looks like my guess of 84 wins is a tad optimistic.

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DMZ did the same thing at USSM

Got an even lower average win total.

My estimate for the M's is actually 78 wins. But I plan on rooting for them all season anyway.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 24, 2008 1:40 PM PDT reply actions

This is why I don't pay attention to projections

if this season is indeed a lost cause, playoff-wise, I'd rather not know it until August.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 24, 2008 1:42 PM PDT reply actions

Even in these ultra pessimistic projections

the Mariners have a 10% chance of making the playoffs. I don't think that's a lost cause at all.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 24, 2008 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions

"Lost cause" was a bit harsh, maybe

but I do definitely prefer to go into the season thinking the best, where reading all these projections always makes me assume the worst. Thus the reason for skipping them. If I don't see it, it's not true, right? LALALALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 24, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions

See, when I disagree with projections

I just prefer to think that I'm smarter than computers somehow.

by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 24, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions

I can barely tie my shoes most days

so I very rarely think I'm smarter than a computer.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 24, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions

I spent 4 hours two weekends ago

figuring out that my computer though (5.2-4)*10 was 1.199999999999384. Computers are dumb.

by Matthew on Mar 24, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions

You need to get out more.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Mar 24, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions

What? And leave the matrix?

by Matthew on Mar 24, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions

(5.2-4)*10 = 12, surely

by Graham MacAree on Mar 24, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions

yeah, misplaced decimal

and don't call me shirley.

by Matthew on Mar 24, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Tampa has a 30% shot at the playoffs?

hot shit

"You know, as that was coming out of my mouth, I knew that it was wrong."

by JI on Mar 24, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Also, if it makes you feel better.

These projections probably didn't take the LAAA injuries into account.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 24, 2008 1:57 PM PDT reply actions

...really?

Arizona:85.4
LA:84.9
San Diego:84

Colorado:76.5

I figured the Rockies would be alot closer to the top of the division than that.

These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Mar 24, 2008 3:34 PM PDT reply actions

You're only looking at the first projection.

Some of the others are far more flattering.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 24, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions

.......maybe I should open my eyes eh?

These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Mar 24, 2008 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Runs against is much much much too high

Even with our crappy defense.

by Graham MacAree on Mar 24, 2008 3:44 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah

I wonder if the Bedard trade happened too late to be considered by some of these systems.

The CAIRO and CHONE systems projections both list Bedard with baltimore and HoRam with Seattle.
I'd assume he was subtracted from BAL and added to SEA in the course of creating the team projections, but I don't KNOW that he was. Given the runs against, it makes me wonder.

by marc w on Mar 24, 2008 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions

The guy who ran the projections commented

on USSM. It looks like he took all things into account.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Mar 24, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually, what struck me...

... is basically they collectively project the offense to collapse from 5 runs a game (~800, like last year) to 4.4 (~720, the composite average).

I guess this means they think two of Raul/Wilkerson/Johjima/Vidro will join Richie in being unbelievably bad, to the point where about 40-50% of the offense will collectively suck, or that Lopez is a lost cause, or some combination of that.

To give you an idea of how bad they are projecting things to be, the 2004/2005 teams scored 700 runs, and several projections have us at that or BELOW.

The problem is that I can totally see this happening. Richie is by no means a lock to bounce back, Vidro has great potential to be terrible, I'm not very confident about Wilkerson being good based on his 2007 and 2006, Raul spent half a season last year being an inanimate spasming corpse, Joh has some mileage as a C and is over 30 (I'd probably peg him the least likely of that group to collapse), and maybe Lopez IS pooched.

Add to that Mac and the front office's fetish for letting veterans prove they are completely useless before making a lineup switch, even if a kid is tearing up the minors (see: Adam Jones last year), plus the fact that Lopez's probable lineup replacement is Willie... yeah, that's probably the scenario where the offense goes into the toilet.

by eponymous coward on Mar 24, 2008 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, the offense strikes me as weird too

But since I'm doing the bulk of my stats work on advanced pitching statistics, that's what I notice and harp on.

by Graham MacAree on Mar 24, 2008 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions

The Ms didn't make a change

last year because the team was winning. Rest assured if they're floundering at .500 while Raul, Jose, Jose, Brad and Richie go to shit, they won't stay in the lineup.

by Matthew on Mar 24, 2008 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions

heh

that's basically the whole fucking lineup

"You know, as that was coming out of my mouth, I knew that it was wrong."

by JI on Mar 24, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Um...

The Mariners are going to aggressively replace 5 guys in the lineup if they have a cold start to the season? One of them being Mr. Mariner For Life? With the manager being Mr "Veterans Who Have Been Through Wars"?

The last time they did something like that was in 2004, when they basically cashiered Olerud, Aurilia, Spiezio and Wilson for Bucky, Lopez, Jolbert Cabrera and Miguel Olivo. How'd that work out?

If half the team is hitting .240/.310/.380, the odds are pretty damned high this team is 5-10 games out by June, even if Felix and Bedard are pitching well enough to vie for the Cy Young (recall that Freddy was doing pretty well in 2004 before he got traded). See, the thing is, I have serious doubts that the pitching+defense is good enough to keep them at .500 if the offense is resembling the 2004 Mariners, even with Felix and Bedard performing at a high level. Boston, Toronto and Cleveland last year were the only teams at 4.4 R/G and under... and I would argue ALL of them had objectively better staffs and defenses than the Mariners do in 2008.

Then there's the problem that the readily available replacements in some cases aren't that great (Morse, Reed, Willie), might not be ready (Wlad, Clement), which means the M's are going to have to trade... after raiding the farm system pretty heavily to bring in Bedard, and with the veterans being either indispensable (Ichiro, Beltre, Felix, Bedard), or crap (the aformentioned crap).

No, I'm pretty much of the belief that if this scenario happens, we're fucked. There's just no way, after seeing how this franchise has been managed the last 10 years or so, that they have the ability to react THAT quickly and be willing to jettison veterans. Not after seeing how the team piddled with Adam Jones, used a bunch of veteran garbage in critical late-inning situations, and stuck with Richie even after it was clear the team would be better just eating the contract and going after someone else's free talent at 1B. If the projections are right (and I pray that they aren't, and I FINALLY get to see some offseason baseball to go with my season tickets I started buying in 2002), get used to seeing Felix and Erik lose games 3-2.

by eponymous coward on Mar 24, 2008 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions