Fun With Numbers
It's been too long since the last time I properly extolled the many virtues of Fangraphs. Well, today gives me good reason - just Wednesday David Appelman added a new feature.
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FB: Fastball, CT: Cutter, CB: Curveball, SL: Slider, CH: Changeup, SF: Split-fingered Fastball, KN: Knuckleball, XX: Unidentified, PO: Pickoff Attempt
The data comes from Baseball Info Solutions, and since they track nearly every pitch of the season, this helps conquer some of the sample size issues you run into with Josh Kalk's PITCHf/x tool (among other, less important things). So, without further ado, here are a few bits that I found interesting:
- JJ has all but abandoned his slider and changeup and become a two-pitch pitcher. 92.7% of his pitches last year were fastballs and splitters, as opposed to 76.3% in 2006. This is good news, because JJ's slider and changeup are bad. They're useful only as show-me pitches to use every other game or so.
- Brandon Morrow threw 80% fastballs. Fangraphs will include this information in its leaderboards before long, but for the time being, we're left going through individual player pages, and so far Brian Bruney's the only guy I've found with a higher percentage (82.2%). I don't care what anybody says - Morrow's secondary pitches cannot possibly be ready for a feature role after being left to atrophy to such an extent. They still need a lot of work.
- Felix threw 57% fastballs, which is right in line with most of the other ace pitchers in the league. It's not the frequency that's the problem - it's the predictable patterns.
- Felix also threw a ton more sliders, at the expense of his curveball and changeup. It's no wonder lefties give him so much trouble. In order to become the dominant ace we all expect, he either needs to get better command of his two-seamer, or he needs to get his changeup back to what it was in 2005.
- Felix's average fastball was 0.8mph faster than Morrow's. Felix is a starter.
- Like JJ, Erik Bedard is a two-pitch pitcher (FB + CB = 92.1%). Like JJ, Erik Bedard's two pitches are very very good.
- Why did Miguel Batista go from being a groundball pitcher in 2006 to a bit of a flyball pitcher in 2007? Possibly because he threw 50% more cutters, which tend to be hit in the air. It also appears to be a more difficult pitch with which to make contact, given the bump in his strikeout rate. I wonder if this is Miguel adapting his style to the ballpark.
- Horacio Ramirez also tried throwing more cutters and fewer fastballs. It didn't work as well.
- Based on observation (rather than numerical analysis), it seems like the typical velocity improvement that comes from moving into the bullpen is around 1-2mph on the fastball, and sometimes a little more on the offspeed stuff. Obviously not everyone is affected the same way. Shawn Chacon, for example, gained 3-4mph, while Aaron Sele gained nothing. But it does appear reasonably consistent across the board.
There's a bunch more stuff in there, but I'll let you play around with it by yourself. In the future I'd be interested to know the average annual standard deviation in individual pitch frequency so we can have a better idea of when a pitcher's actually changed his approach. If a guy's fastball rate goes from 60% one year to 63% the next, is that significant, or random fluctuation?
That's for another time, though. For now, we have more than enough to keep ourselves entertained. Between this and Josh Kalk's PITCHf/x stuff, it's incredible to see how far we've come in just a few short years. That this kind of information is readily available to whoever wants it is just mind-blowing.
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Good Lord.
Felix IS king.
by Thingray on Mar 14, 2008 11:30 AM PDT 0 recs
There's more
Putz' average Fastball: 94.7 mph
by vj on
Mar 14, 2008 6:41 PM PDT
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Understatement of the young season
Can we have an informal "guess HoRam's next team and salary, plus stats" competition?
by seattlebruin on Mar 14, 2008 11:31 AM PDT 0 recs
Washington Generals
Note: I actually typo'd "year" as "yar" at first, but now that I've corrected it I think I like per "yar" better. Sounds "pirate-ey".
by Thingray on
Mar 14, 2008 11:54 AM PDT
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Jerome James
Minutes - 5
Points - 4
Rebounds - 3
Salary - $5.8M
Salary per point - $1.45M per point
At that rate, LeBron James salary - $3.674B/yr
by seattlebruin on Mar 14, 2008 12:00 PM PDT 0 recs
And to think some people were upset
by Thingray on
Mar 14, 2008 12:07 PM PDT
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Jamie Moyer's pitches have gotten slower
by Llewdor on Mar 14, 2008 12:32 PM PDT 0 recs
That still makes Jamie's fastball 7 mph faster
by Llewdor on
Mar 14, 2008 12:34 PM PDT
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This happens in
by Mere Tantalisers on Mar 14, 2008 12:37 PM PDT 0 recs
That's fo sho!
by Thingray on
Mar 14, 2008 12:41 PM PDT
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In terms of his mind,
by Sec 108 on Mar 14, 2008 12:41 PM PDT 0 recs
Would be nice
I feel like I should nap in between his pitches.
by seattlebruin on
Mar 14, 2008 12:45 PM PDT
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Isn't Bedard a slow worker too?
by Thingray on
Mar 14, 2008 12:47 PM PDT
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True, but if your stuff is barely ok
by Sec 108 on
Mar 14, 2008 12:52 PM PDT
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Remember what happened when
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/phranklin/
Some pitchers shouldn't throw strikes.
by Llewdor on
Mar 14, 2008 3:07 PM PDT
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I'm probably gonna be alone on this one
by Black12 on Mar 14, 2008 1:21 PM PDT 0 recs
If he develops that command, great
by Llewdor on
Mar 14, 2008 3:08 PM PDT
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Yes
by Black12 on Mar 14, 2008 1:43 PM PDT 0 recs
Good stuff
As far as fastball percentage, I found one guy higher than Morrow/Bruney - Bob Howry.
- 82.6
- 82.8
- 86.2
by ConorGlassey on Mar 14, 2008 1:56 PM PDT 0 recs
Two words
Fastball: 26.7%
Cutter: 73.2%
Considering that a cutter is essentially a fastball, it can accurately be accurately said that Mariano Rivera throws a fastball 99.9% of the time. And he's still going to the hall of fame.
by davidcameron on Mar 14, 2008 2:36 PM PDT 0 recs
I'm surprised that his cutter is only 73%.
by Thingray on
Mar 14, 2008 2:38 PM PDT
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Since every Yankees game ever is on TV ...
by Black12 on
Mar 14, 2008 3:50 PM PDT
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Plus his cutter is so famous (or infamous)
by Thingray on
Mar 14, 2008 4:14 PM PDT
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Rivera's cutter/fastball mix
by Mike Fast on
Mar 17, 2008 2:40 PM PDT
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Morphing Miguel
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Mar 15, 2008 3:51 PM PDT 0 recs
The leaderboard's up
Morrow's FB% was actually tenth-highest in baseball.
Erik Bedard threw more curveballs than everyone but Jeremy Affeldt.
by Jeff on Mar 16, 2008 4:39 PM PDT 0 recs
If we assume that MLB 2K8
by Llewdor on
Mar 17, 2008 12:08 PM PDT
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If that's not the case...
by kidlondon on
Mar 17, 2008 2:13 PM PDT
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Bedard's pitch mix
To right-handed hitters, Bedard doesn't use his cutter as much because he doesn't need to--his fastball and curve are outstanding to right-handers (-0.03 and -0.04 runs/pitch, respectively).
From the PITCHf/x data, I have Bedard's pitch mix to right-handed hitters in 2007 as 34% fastballs, 24% cutters, 35% curveballs, and 7% changeups. To left-handed hitters it was 23% fastballs, 45% cutters, 32% curveballs, and 1% changeups.
by Mike Fast on Mar 17, 2008 2:54 PM PDT 0 recs
I appreciate the clarification
Strange how BIS has trouble identifying the cutter, and it still says that Batista threw it two-fifths of the time. Dude must've been throwing a lot of cutters.
by Jeff on
Mar 17, 2008 7:29 PM PDT
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Cutters
I've heard that the cutter is hard to identify on video. I personally have trouble telling anything other than a fastball and curveball apart on video, but I've heard the cutter is tough even for experienced video analysts.
by Mike Fast on
Mar 18, 2008 7:20 AM PDT
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