Yuniesky Betancourt

by seattlebruin on Feb 18, 2008 2:36 PM PST

I think I'm in the minority here, but I could see Yuni having a very good year this year. Per Dewan's Fielding Bible, he led MLB in good fielding plays last year, and if he has his footwork straightened out at short, it seems as if his glovework (or more conspicuously, throwing work) could be a major asset to this team this season, more in the +10 < x < +20 range that we originally thought. I think this is especially true in light of adding two starting pitchers who get a decent amount of ground balls (Bedard 2006 G/F 1.7, 2007 1.47 and Silva 2006 G/F 1.29 2007 1.57) replacing Weaver/Feierabend/HoRam, whose numbers I'd rather not even look up (07 G/F .79/.79/1.55). I have no idea what HoRam's 1.55 means - it sure seemed to me like they were killing everything he threw up there all season.

Anyway, I've digressed a lot. I also think Yuni can be decent with the bat - somewhere in the neighborhood of .310/.335/.440. He may be a hacker beyond all belief, but I think it's possible that as he gets more experience, he may grow into an ML average SS at the plate, especially given his relatively small number of professional ABs (~1710) for his age. Of course, I see the slugging increase as a continuation of last year when he was able to slug .481 post ASB mostly by turning on the jets and making gap singles into doubles.

All in all, if he hits just a touch above league average and plays the defense he's probably capable of, I think he could be a +20 to +25 range player (well... that's stretching it) but I think he could be a very valuable piece to this team.

Either way, he'll be damn fun to watch.

Also, Barry Bonds, July 27th - 4 walks

Yuniesky Betancourt, post ASB - 4 walks wow...

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There ya go Coach

community projections are starting whether Jeff likes it or not!

by johnbai on Feb 18, 2008 3:25 PM PST reply actions

hey hey

I just had to take this opportunity to profess my love for Yuniesky's unorthodox style of play, plus I'm a touch bored at work today

by seattlebruin on Feb 18, 2008 3:38 PM PST up reply actions

I think you're crazy optimistic about his bat

by Matthew on Feb 18, 2008 3:53 PM PST reply actions

Yeah...

that was pretty damn ambitious, but I think with his skillset, it's right about where his max year lies

by seattlebruin on Feb 18, 2008 3:56 PM PST up reply actions

Slugging doesn't look bad to me

But you just have to take into account all the doubles he got last year with his speed. He may do it again.

.300/.315/.430 probably isn't terribly off-base, given that he got 38 doubles last year without roping balls into the gap...I wouldn't be surprised to see 8-12 HR, 40 2B....Yuni can take a meatball out of the park...if he gets deep enough into the AB to get it.

On the whole though I agree that his AVG/OBP is high. .440 is probably like a 90% PECOTA performance, but I'd say there are things that are less likely on this team than Yuni slugging .440

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Feb 18, 2008 4:05 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah the jump from .400 to .440 SLG

isn't too tough. Its probably one of the easier 40 pt jumps to make because if you are at 400 then you already show a little power and 440 isn't by any means a power hitter. I don't think it'll happen but we've seen much crazier things.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 18, 2008 4:12 PM PST up reply actions

I'm just thinking that he

might try and stretch those gap singles into doubles all season - after all, he did slug . 481 after the All Star break last year (~240 AB), so a .440 season wouldn't be out of the question.

I do know that what I'm projecting for him is awfully high, I just think that given his experience level, and the fact that hitters tend to enter their physical primes around his current age (~26), he has a chance to have a very good season.

by seattlebruin on Feb 18, 2008 4:16 PM PST up reply actions

If

he hits .300 (not unreasonable) with 42 2B, 5 3B, 11 HR (all slight improvements from 2007, but we're assuming he doesn't repeat his 2007 first half), and assuming the same number of ABs (536), he ends up slugging .459.

by seattlebruin on Feb 18, 2008 4:32 PM PST up reply actions

42 2B is a lot of 2Bs

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 18, 2008 4:47 PM PST up reply actions

He hit 38 last year

and I'm assuming he tries more of those gap single --> doubles this season in the first half.

by seattlebruin on Feb 18, 2008 5:01 PM PST up reply actions

With the aggressive baserunning strategy

How much of a SLG + from increased doubles do you expect to see coupled with a BA - from getting thrown out trying to stretch long singles?

I'd imagine it's about a wash -- if not an slight overall negative. The words "aggressive baserunning" almost never equal good things for this team.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Feb 18, 2008 5:15 PM PST up reply actions

Not quite.

If he gets thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double, he still gets the hit and his BA still goes up.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Feb 18, 2008 5:19 PM PST up reply actions

oh yeah

i should have known that...

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Feb 18, 2008 9:28 PM PST up reply actions

That's a top-end projection

Yuni is a high average, free swinging, reasonably powerful contact bat who can generate XBHs with his speed and the occasional solid contact. That sort of bat, at its best... is basically what we've seen from Yuni the last couple years.

If he can sustain that performance, then great, but keep in mind that what we're seeing from him is already the high-end of what we can expect from his skillset.

I'm Gomez and I write about many things.

by Gomez on Feb 18, 2008 4:40 PM PST reply actions

I'm with ya, Bruin

26 is a common age for players with a few years of service under their belts to have breakout seasons. Add that to Yuni's hot 2007 2H and he might have jumped a plateau. It's not like he's a typical 2H late bloomer - only played 2H in 2005 and was dead even 1H/2H in 2006, compared to 2007 +35 OPS+ spike.

.310/.335/.440? The OBP is generous, but the potential for average is there and his slg could go even higher if 2B and HR climb. He hit 310/320/480 in 2H 2007, and I won't write that off as a fluke just yet. He was what... 710 OPS last year (including bad first half)? 740-750 is a reasonable goal (coming down from 800 in 2H), and sustaining that 119 OPS+ isn't completely out of the picture.

Sure thing? Far from it. Worth some optimism? Absolutely. Let's hope the defense gels, while we're at it :)

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby

by thejew4u on Feb 18, 2008 4:55 PM PST reply actions

Nuts to his offense

If he finally puts his defense together and becomes one of the premier SS gloves in the league, he immediately becomes 2nd or 3rd most valuable player to us in terms of salary and wins.

That alone could bring about a huge boost to our defense, especially with Beltre over there. I'm not very optimistic about it, though.

by JLC on Feb 18, 2008 5:25 PM PST reply actions