Bill James' Projections-M's Lineup=Awesome

by dbroncos31 on Feb 18, 2008 12:43 PM PST Comment 19 comments

I was looking at the projections on Fangraphs to help with my fantasy team when I noticed that Bill James' projections were much higher for us than ZiPS or PECOTA. The numbers weren't that far off of the projections I had made in my Calc class, and I figured that mine would be a sick team if they happened.

So long story short, I went to Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis to see how the lineup with BJ's projections would do.
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

I had a lineup of Ichiro, Vidro, Raul, Richie, Kenji, Beltre, Wilk, Yuni, and Lopez.

According to James' projections, our starting lineup will score 5.202 runs per game. Over a 162 game season that is about 842 runs.

I was wondering how his projections tend to do, because if our offense puts up >850 runs, we will be a playoff team easily.

So, the question for us (until the season starts and we actually find out) is which group of projections is the most accurate, the ones that have us as the 4th best team in the AL West or the one that has us as the 4th best team in the AL?

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Wow

If we score ~840 runs and our D is anything better than "genuinely abysmal," this team could do some serious damage in October.

by seattlebruin on Feb 18, 2008 12:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Starters don't play every game

it's also worth pointing out that the Bill James projections for Johjima and Vidro are laughable.

by Jeff on Feb 18, 2008 12:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Starters

Yeah, but we'd still be a great team b/c of our O plus our pitching.

Re: Johjima/Vidro

I don't know, the Vidro one doesn't seem too terrible... Johjima is unlikely to put up those numbers, but he should do better thasn what PECOTA says...

THE FUTURE Richards, Cutler, Felix

by dbroncos31 on Feb 18, 2008 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

How can anyone credibly expect

any player to double his walk rate from one season to the next? That's a huge increase.

by Llewdor on Feb 18, 2008 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly...

If everything breaks right -- the offensive players hit pretty much their career-best seasons collectively -- then 116 will be in the rear-view mirror.

Chances of that happening? I'd say pretty much zero...

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Feb 18, 2008 1:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Obvi, but

these projections aren't everybody's career season. I mean, obviously not everyone will hit their projection, but I thought it would be interesting to see projections that actually like our team.

Honestly, its funny how PECOTA has us as the 2nd worst offense in baseball while Bill James has us as one of the best.

IMO it will be somewhere in the middle

THE FUTURE Richards, Cutler, Felix

by dbroncos31 on Feb 18, 2008 1:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

James' projections are always high

you'd have to compare the Ms via James against every other team via James

by Matthew on Feb 18, 2008 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Angels via the same method:

892 runs.

ahaha

by Jeff on Feb 18, 2008 1:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Jeez, what are the Yanks? 1200?

by Matthew on Feb 18, 2008 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't want to try

I might break the Internet

by Jeff on Feb 18, 2008 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, fuck

I was kinda hoping that that wouldn't happen...oh well.

I still think that this team has the potential to have a potent offense, but it also has the chance to blow if the old farts (Sexy, Corpse, etc) decline.

I would lean towards Ichiro declining slightly, Beltre improving (I'm a homer), Lopez and Sexson rebounding nicely, and everyone else staying pretty close to the same.

We should have a good offense.

THE FUTURE Richards, Cutler, Felix

by dbroncos31 on Feb 18, 2008 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think "potent" is highly unlikely

I'm just hoping for average.

by Jeff on Feb 18, 2008 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we

have the potential for a sick offense. Like Paul says, not everyone will hit their potential, but I don't think a good offense is out of the question.

THE FUTURE Richards, Cutler, Felix

by dbroncos31 on Feb 18, 2008 2:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Above average perhaps

maybe even good. But I doubt this offense will be sick this year, unless we're talking about the negative connotation. Realistically, I still that if the O is slightly above average and the D is anything better than "genuinely abysmal," than this team has a decent shot.

by seattlebruin on Feb 18, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I also think the Bill James projections usually

look high. If they are always high, how do they get away with people thinking its even a somewhat decent projection system.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 18, 2008 4:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure.

I was just tangenting your thread here. Honestly, though, it wouldn't actually surprise me if the M's went on a tear this year, and won 100+ games. I'm not expecting it, of course, but it's certainly not impossible.

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Feb 18, 2008 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs