The New Mike Cameron
I'm not talking about some up-and-coming hotshot CF with good power and a fresh glove. I'm talking about a solid all-around player who's currently getting the royal screwjob from his home park. Between 2000-2003, Mike Cameron put up a .701 OPS in Seattle and an .884 OPS on the road. The deep left-center power alley absolutely slaughtered his offensive skillset, leaving him as a problem bat for 81 games a year. His struggles were very well publicized, and you couldn't help but get the feeling that Safeco got into his head.
Cammy moved on in December '03. Enter Khalilbot.
This is my Petco sad face.
2004-2007, home: 1093 plate appearances, .230/.292/.377, 0.72 GB/FB, 7.6% HR/FB, 17.7% LD, .272 BABIP
This is my not-Petco happy face.
2004-2007, road: 1126 plate appearances, .280/.334/.511, 0.80 GB/FB, 12.4% HR/FB, 20.7% LD, .305 BABIP
We're not dealing with small samples, here. You've got basically two full seasons' worth of data for each split, and the data's showing that Khalil loses a staggering 21% of his OPS when he's playing at home. This isn't a case of a park making a great hitter seem good, or a decent hitter seem bad; this is a park making a good hitter seem awful. That's...that's extreme is what that is, and it's the exact same thing that happened to Cammy (who also happened to lose 21% of his OPS in Seattle).
What's going on? Well, Petco might be the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball, armed with a huge outfield and power alleys of doom. It reduces almost everything imaginable, including groundballs and line drives. It is not a good location for a dead-pull righty hitter like Khalil to put up big numbers.
That explains a chunk of it. But it doesn't explain all of it. None of Khalil's teammates have been ruined nearly as much. It's tough for everyone, but Khalil's the only guy that it out-and-out murders.
That's stupid. I don't know why Khalil's so much worse off than anyone else, but he is, and the evidence is right there. It's a shame, too, because he's a good defensive shortstop, and if the Padres played in a friendlier ballpark he'd probably get the same kind of fringey MVP consideration as Shannon Stewart a few years back. And we all know that in a competition that close, Khalil could win with his personality.
Khalil Greene is a better player than Mike Young, and it's criminally unjust that Young's locked up to an $80m/5yr extension while Greene will have to make do with something far less substantial. Could someone please remind me why baseball continues to tolerate extreme ballparks? Because I don't get it.
0 recs |
32
comments
Comments
Tradition
by Mariner John on Feb 13, 2008 7:35 PM PST 0 recs
Diversity.
...but not with a straight face.
Yet should he joke, that would make HIM diverse...
My head hurts.
by Slica on Feb 13, 2008 7:38 PM PST 0 recs
KhalilBot does not joke
by Nick S on
Feb 13, 2008 8:03 PM PST
up
0 recs
Why don't they just reprogram him for Petco?
by jtopps on
Feb 14, 2008 8:47 AM PST
up
0 recs
One of the guys I share M's tickets with
by Sec 108 on
Feb 14, 2008 9:05 AM PST
up
0 recs
Look familiar?
by AZSEAfan on
Feb 14, 2008 9:53 AM PST
up
0 recs
She was about 18 when I met here
by Sec 108 on
Feb 14, 2008 9:58 AM PST
up
0 recs
When Cammy left I was sad for me
I know my friend who has Padres tickets loves Greene. Is he a beloved player in San Diego or does he draw the ire of the local fans there like Cammy did here?
by Sec 108 on Feb 13, 2008 7:51 PM PST 0 recs
By the way
by Jeff on Feb 13, 2008 8:11 PM PST 0 recs
They need to have an episode of the Terminator
by Goose on Feb 13, 2008 8:20 PM PST 0 recs
no, what they really need to do
by Matthew on
Feb 13, 2008 8:22 PM PST
up
0 recs
Yeah know, it's actually kinda growing on me.
by Goose on
Feb 13, 2008 8:29 PM PST
up
0 recs
Also, I thought last weeks episode was very good
by Goose on
Feb 13, 2008 8:49 PM PST
up
0 recs
Am I a heretic for saying...?
Disprove me.
by yourfacemakesmewail on Feb 13, 2008 8:21 PM PST 0 recs
They're both products of their parks
by Jeff on
Feb 13, 2008 8:48 PM PST
up
0 recs
Once you take into account
Offensively, Greene is around a league average hitter. Young, except for 2005, is a slightly above league average hitter, say, 5-10 runs above average.
Defensively, Young is regularly one of the worse SS's in MLB, 20-30 runs below average.
Greene, while no Tulowitzki or even Reyes, is decent to good, about 5 runs above average.
In 2005, Young's hitting was more than enough to make up for his bad D. In other years, no.
by rfloh on
Feb 13, 2008 9:39 PM PST
up
0 recs
I like the different parks
by Edgar for Pres on Feb 13, 2008 11:05 PM PST 0 recs
I suppose it wouldn't be as big of a problem
by Jeff on
Feb 13, 2008 11:09 PM PST
up
0 recs
Maybe we can sign Greene
What?
Stop laughing.
by Matthew on Feb 13, 2008 11:16 PM PST 0 recs
question?
by billy1 on Feb 13, 2008 11:46 PM PST 0 recs
Clemson indeed
Those are Nintendo numbers.
by Jeff on
Feb 13, 2008 11:51 PM PST
up
0 recs
Watched him
by billy1 on Feb 14, 2008 12:25 AM PST 0 recs
I'd say he'd get about 75%
by Matthew on
Feb 14, 2008 12:29 AM PST
up
0 recs
He's definitely a weird-looking dude
Greene's still under team control, and he just signed an $11m/2yr deal to buy out the remainder of his arby years. If he sustains his current level of performance as he heads into free agency as a 30 year old, he'll probably deserve to be a ~$12-14m/yr player, but I could see him settling for Jack Wilson money ($20m/3yr). He might have a shot at the Orlando Cabrera contract ($32m/4yr). But that would still be less than half of what Young got.
Petco's going to end up costing Greene tens of millions of dollars. Meanwhile, the environment in Texas has enabled Young to be able to buy the Lesser Antilles.
by Jeff on
Feb 14, 2008 12:57 AM PST
up
0 recs
I'm glad I investigated why you wrote this.
LD*%=[[(LD%)[(OFB%)+(IFB%)+(HR%)+(LD%)]]-[100-(r:LDBIA%)]/100*[[(LD%)[(OFB%)+(IFB%)+(HR%)+(LD%)]]- [(laLD%)/[(laLD%)+(laOFB%)+(laIFB%)+(laHR%)]]]][100-[(K%)+(BB*%)+(HBP*%)+(GB*%)]]
by Librocrat on
Feb 14, 2008 1:17 AM PST
up
0 recs
Some hitters seem to crumple under
Remember Cirillo?
by Llewdor on Feb 14, 2008 9:10 AM PST 0 recs










