2009 Mariners ZIPS Posted

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2008 1:57 PM PST Comment 27 comments

To sum up Dan Szymborski's projection of our team...We should have seen last year coming and the 2009 team is going to be pretty pathetic for a lot of reasons.

Kenji is projected to be our worst catcher behind Clement, Moore, Johnson, and Burke. I think Moore's projection is actually much closer to Clement's than I thought. If you haven't already jumped on the Adam Moore bandwagon, this is probably a good time to do it.

Russell Branyan is going to be one of our best players....

2B has three options all which look to give very similar production (Lopez, Tug, and Valbuena).

Beltre is expected to repeat last year without improvement/decline.

Yuni is the team's 3rd best option. The best, Mike Morse...god help us all. (Tug is probably a better option though).

Our OF is gonna suck unless we bring in some people. Ichiro is good athough ZIPS has a tough time predicting a good year for him. The rest are either not good or too young to help.

Starting pitching should be good and the bullpen might be mediocre (especially if Putz is traded).

If this depresses you too much look at the Marlins projections. They suck too although they have young exciting players. All and all, these projections are pretty depressing to me. The worst part is I think they might be pretty accurate.

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The Beltre projection seems much too low.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Dec 9, 2008 2:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

At 30 years old he's not predicting improvement

Its not that unusual. You can use BABIP to make a case that he should have had a better year last year but looking at Beltre’s time in Seattle, the projection made is probably pretty realistic.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2008 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure

It seems that if Beltre’s BABIP regresses to something more normal this season, the only way those projections would manifest is if his LD% fell off a cliff. I could be wrong, though.

by BrianL on Dec 9, 2008 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't look at one season

At least look at the last 3 years.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2008 4:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And looking more than 3 years is inadvisable.

by Graham on Dec 9, 2008 4:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha.

by BrianL on Dec 9, 2008 4:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

At least = Don't be lazy and look at last year only

not….Look at his whole career to predict next year.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2008 4:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Morse

He’s sure to be a better hitter than Yuni, but my god by what standard is he a ‘fair’ fielder at short? He’s got the range for third, although I forget if his arm is good enough to play on that side of the field. Tuglett might be a better option than Yuni on account of taking a walk once in a while, but I don’t imagine he’d be any better with the glove.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 9, 2008 2:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

He hasn't had much time at SS so its tough to tell what his true value is for a projection system.

I have a hard time believing Tug is worse than Yuni with the glove.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2008 3:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Morse's career OPS is .720

Yuni’s is .705 so maybe Morse is sure to be a better hitter than Yuni except wait no those are Morse’s career minor league numbers…

I don’t get why so many people still continue to think that Morse is anything but a terrible hitter.

by Simon Phoenix on Dec 9, 2008 3:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Because...

…of small sample size. In a way, he’s the blogosphere’s version of Willie Bloomquist.

by rtang on Dec 9, 2008 3:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yuni is turning into Vidro but he doesn't get any walks

Why wouldn’t Morse be a better hitter than him?

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2008 4:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Because Morse is awful?

Princess Willie, AAA, age 24: .270/ .328/.383
Mike Morse, AAA, age 24: .248/.300/.403

Princess Willie’s lifetime minor league OPS: .712
Mike Morse’s lifetime minor league OPS: .720

Morse’s one steroid where he looked mildly steroid was 2002 and there steroid were other steroids.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 9, 2008 7:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And Johjima's contract is only beginning...

Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber

by Wilder. on Dec 9, 2008 5:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don't get this:

Branyan: .230/.326/.452, 14 HR, 105 OPS+, fair range = VERY GOOD
Beltre: .264 /.320 /.449, 23 HR, 104 OPS+, excellent range = AVERAGE

by Teej on Dec 9, 2008 5:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

OPS overvalues slugging and I think the rankings are only based off of offensive production

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2008 6:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

But that's 6 points of OBP and 3 points of SLG.

Seems pretty negligible. I’m also thrown off by there not being anything between average and very good.

by Teej on Dec 9, 2008 6:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah its a little confusing

I was a little surprised when I saw that too. The system just likes Branyan and dislikes Beltre. It will be interesting to see what other systems say. Marcels and Bill James both like Branyan more but that doesn’t factor in Safeco and probably doesn’t try to change the fact that he’s basically a platoon player.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2008 6:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs