Rosenthal rumors: M's shopping JJ, Adam Everett--->Tigers
by JI on Dec 8, 2008 10:38 AM PST
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PrintThe Mariners are finally listening to offers for Putz; they called one team to gauge the level of interest, saying other clubs have "stepped up." The Mets, Indians and Cardinals are among the teams believed to be interested in Putz, who could be next season's Brad Lidge, benefiting from a change in teams. Putz, who will earn $5 million in 2009 with an $8.6 million club option for '10, is affordable enough for the Mets to acquire in addition to one of the top free-agent closers.
I don't think Putz makes much sense for the Cards unless the M's eat some of the salary... Oh wait this is probably going to end up being good the Mariners. Disregard.
UPDATE
Oh hey, I was quoted the wrong numbers yesterday. $5m is more than reasonable to gamble on JJ. Disregard.
FURTHER UPDATED
4:11 p.m. — Bradley has lunch with Rays
Free-agent outfielder Milton Bradley arrived at the winter meetings on Monday and promptly went to lunch with his agents and officials from the American League champion Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays are in the market for a full-time designated hitter or right fielder, and are hopeful that a prominent free agent will fall to them at the right price.
Bradley, a switch-hitter, led the American League in on-base/slugging percentage last season. He hit .321 with 22 home runs and 77 RBIs in 126 games for the Rangers in 2008.
It looks like the Rays plan on returning to the playoffs
Tigers have deal with Everett
The Tigers have reached agreement with free-agent shortstop Adam Everett, according to a major-league source.
The one-year deal will be worth approximately $1 million, plus incentives, and is pending a physical.
That's a good gamble, cross off one potential Yuni replacement.
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Since the Cardinals seem bent on signing a closer
and there’s nothing anyone can do to stop it…
My preference is Kerry Wood as long the money isn’t outrageous.
by JI on Dec 8, 2008 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
He finished last season pretty strong
I have a feeling he’s got plenty left in the tank and has a few good closing seasons to go yet. All the same, I say trade the shit out of him because by the time we really need to be squeezing marginal wins out of relief pitchers he’ll be either not as good or too expensive.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 8, 2008 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
He did have a pretty strong September
his control was better that month.
I don’t know how significant that is since it’s only 8 innings.
by JI on Dec 8, 2008 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
With the closer market as loaded as it is right now, I don't expect a big haul for J.J.
I’m assuming Zduriencik is just listening and would jump at a good offer, but it might be better to wait till the trading deadline and there’s more desperation. Plus it should give J.J. a chance to increase his value by getting a few saves under his belt and showing people he’s better than he looked in 2008.
He's cheap, and it is only a one year commitment
I can see him bringing back something interesting, but if it’s not interesting enough you have to hope that he regains his form, pick up his option, then deal him for a haul.
by JI on Dec 8, 2008 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
At JJ's cost
He’s got more value then any other “closer” on the market.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 8, 2008 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
He should have ~Huston Street value. Less time on the contract but perceived as better.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
Street seems like less of a gamble for a team not worried about money.
by JI on Dec 8, 2008 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
Of course, but if you're looking for max upside and the risk is acceptable*
You go with JJ.
*You’d see this in teams close to contention but not quite there.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
Just as many injury concerns with Wood as JJ, and Putz is just as good when healthy.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
Wood was awesome last year, JJ could easily go the way of Eric Gagne
Considering how bad his control was. I think Wood is the safer bet for 2009.
Plus, fuck the Cubs
by JI on Dec 8, 2008 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
So could Wood.
It’s a tossup, weighting more recent success vs more money owed.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
But there are quite a few closers to be had without giving up anything other than money.
I suspect that will drive down his value a bit, combined with injury worries.
Would it make sense to trade JJ and sign Wood if he's still available?
Assuming you could grab Wood (and he’d sign) for a one or two year deal at a reasonable price, couldn’t you always trade Wood at the deadline or the next off season? He’d be a reliable stopgap and possibly worth a prospect or two down the road.
by Flight of the Defenestrated on Dec 8, 2008 11:24 AM PST reply actions
No point in signing players just to trade them
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
Right
But you wouldn’t be trading him immediately. His initial role would be closer for the team. And then if the Mariners are out of contention by the deadline, perhaps there is a team in contention who for whatever reason (e.g. injury to their closer, bullpen issues) believes Wood is worth parting with a prospect or two for.
I don’t see the downside, provided Wood is amiable to signing with Seattle and supply continues to suffocate demand for the closers’ market.
by Flight of the Defenestrated on Dec 8, 2008 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
"And then if the Mariners are out of contention"
I think I have found the major flaw in your plan.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 11:47 AM PST up reply actions
How is that a major flaw?
I don’t think it’s unreasonable at this point to operate as if the Angels and A’s will have better odds at winning the division.
Even if the Mariners remain in contention, how is having Kerry Wood, likely signed at below true value, a bad thing?
by Flight of the Defenestrated on Dec 8, 2008 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
The major flaw is that you think we might have a shot at contention.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
Alright, but what does that have to do with Wood's value and ability to pitch?
It doesn’t look like many teams are stampeding to sign K-Rod for his 62 saves, so it’s not entirely illogical for Wood’s value to remain intact apart from save opportunities.
by Flight of the Defenestrated on Dec 8, 2008 12:06 PM PST up reply actions
And the out of contentioness only solidifes my point
Sign Wood under true value and then flip him at a later date. Is there risk involved? Yes. Does that risk outweigh the potential reward though?
by Flight of the Defenestrated on Dec 8, 2008 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
It's not just the risk that he is broken.
It’s the fact that you’re using up a roster spot on a high-risk experiment and the fact that you’re using financial resources on said experiment. And yes, the Mariners are loaded, but that still doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 8, 2008 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
Things could go wrong, that's true
But if you have the financial flexibility for it in your payroll and (this is a hypothetical) management won’t allow you to commit that sum elsewhere (player draft, scouting or international signings), why not jump? What’s the absolute worst case scenario? Vidro on the mound?
by Flight of the Defenestrated on Dec 8, 2008 12:57 PM PST up reply actions
There is zero reward apart from trading him
Hence ‘No point in signing players just to trade them’
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
You cannot say that with any confidence
Demand at the deadline for players is always capricious.
by Flight of the Defenestrated on Dec 8, 2008 12:55 PM PST up reply actions
Uh
Try reading what I said again and responding to that.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
This isn't the NBA you can't sign and trade players.
The union would never stand for it, and you fuck yourself over in all future FA dealings.
by JI on Dec 8, 2008 1:04 PM PST up reply actions
And you can't trade free agents until the next offseason anyway
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
I think you can trade them once June rolls around
or earlier with their consent
by JI on Dec 8, 2008 1:22 PM PST up reply actions
Here is my understanding of your argument:
“We should sign Kerry Wood and then trade him to teams that need a closer”
Where am I going wrong here?
by Graham MacAree on Dec 8, 2008 1:13 PM PST up reply actions
The downside is that he's a fairly high risk and costs a lot of money
which is a silly kind of player to sign if you’re not likely to be competitive.
Not to mention the opportunity cost; it’s better to try and find someone in your own system (or a minor leaguer included in trade) that you can turn into a closer. If your next competitive team has a dirt cheap relief ace, hey, bonus. And if you manufacture a good closer that is making squat, teams will be lining up around the block to trade good players for him.
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 8, 2008 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
Right
But if you find someone in your own system, especially the minors, you likely control them for six years. I can’t envision a scenario where any free agent closer will be worth more than that type of player. The Wood signing is basically house flipping, only Wood is the house. And letting him pitch is the renovation.
Yes, there’s risk that Wood could get injured, but I think it’s acceptable in this situation. Certainly preferable to handing Carlos Silva the key to the safe.
by Flight of the Defenestrated on Dec 8, 2008 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
If the Mariners traded Putz straight up for Inge
I would publicly denounce the deal and bitch about how stupid this team is, etc. On the inside I would be doing a little jig because Brandon Inge is awesome.
(And yes I know this would never happen and no I haven’t even heard a whisper of a rumor that Detroit is looking to trade Inge. I just love Brandon Inge.)
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 8, 2008 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
Detroit may just push their litany of so-so guys
like Larish, Clete Thomas, etc.
Can't wait for Ruskell to knock this one out of the park.
Yeah, that's who Baker is mentioning
Serious “meh” there. I’m not sure Larish would outhit Branyan.
Maybe if there’s a bidding war between the Mets and Tigers?
by eponymous_coward on Dec 8, 2008 4:59 PM PST up reply actions
I'm honestly not sure what the value for a broken down but once awesome closer that could still be awesome is
especially if there’s a bunch of free agent closers available, so as long as the pieces look like they help the team in the near future I’ll be happy.
This is one time where I’ll just let Jeff/Dave tell me what my opinion is
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
It only makes sense to trade JJ now if you can get decent value, including at least one guy who can help out in the long run
otherwise you let him re-establish his value and then try to move him later on.
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 8, 2008 5:45 PM PST up reply actions
If he can't re-establish himself then you are superfucked
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 8, 2008 8:20 PM PST up reply actions
If the best you can do now is Jeff Larish and/or Brent Clevlen then you would be in no way superfucked
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 8, 2008 8:31 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah I agree with you
If that’s the best you can do then its worth taking the hopefully small risk to have Putz regain his value. You should at least be able to get a top prospect who will be a guaranteed major league contributor.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 8, 2008 8:38 PM PST up reply actions
Hopefully the amount of interest in Putz right now is an indication that people are willing to give good value and are overlooking the struggles
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 8, 2008 8:47 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah I'm happy we aren't hearing much about how unamazing he looked
People have great memories and are slow to learn.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 8, 2008 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
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