Furcal ----->X..... Athletics
by oc on Dec 6, 2008 12:42 PM PST
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PrintTalks between Oakland and shortstop Rafael Furcal broke down Friday after Furcal's side rejected a multiyear offer that was essentially a 'take it-or-leave-it' offer from the Athletics.
The reported offer was 4 years / $35 - $40 million...
If the A's are no longer in the running... who is?
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Hard telling who he will go to now
Cards and the Jays had interest, but Khalilbot and money issues solved that one up quickly. Who else needs to spend an outrageous amount of money on a SS in the 2nd part of his career
I guess the A's will have to depend on
perennial Gammons MVP candidate and former Jeremy Reed roommate Bobby Crosby’s back.
The money’s actually a tad low if those were the actual figures as he’s easily a +3-4 win player even if he suffers some serious regression next season. I wonder what/who his agent is counting on.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 6, 2008 11:51 AM PST reply actions
Furcal must not want to play in Oakland.
Or he would rather risk having a one-year deal to prove he’s healthy.
If that reported offer is true, Furcal should’ve taken it. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and I don’t see him getting much more in a long-term deal. My money would now be on the Twins or Tigers signing him. Twins on a one-year deal or the Tigers on a multi-year deal.
10mil per
is the cost of a league average player on a long term contract. Furcal has a poor medical record but depending on how you value his defense and how much bonus you add for being a SS, he’s a good win or two above average, which would put him in the 4/5 range in terms of WAR. That deal would have been a coup for Beane.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 6, 2008 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
Really, 10M per for a league average player?
Didn’t realize this. Amazing how things have changed in 15 years.
Going rate is ~$4.75mm per win.
Long-term contracts bring that number down a bit, and Furcal’s injury history would have to be factored in as well. I’d say $12mm on a three or four year contract is a good place to start.
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 6, 2008 3:29 PM PST up reply actions
If you think Furcal is an average player then you don't understand baseball.
by JI on Dec 6, 2008 4:42 PM PST up reply actions
Because I knew he was better than average.
I just didn’t know league average players demand 10M per.
My mistake.
You could see where someone could get confused.
by JI on Dec 6, 2008 4:53 PM PST up reply actions
How good of a defender is furcal?
His wOBA next year probably will be something like .340 and maybe 500 PA if we are generous. That makes him a only a couple of runs above average. By the end of the deal he’d probably be below average by some significant amount (if he isn’t hurt). 4yr/40 mil seems about right to me. If he’s decently healthy for the length of the contract then it’s probably worth it. If he isn’t then the contract is gonna suck. We can’t forget the amount of risk that a long year deal takes on and how this can impact the overall cost.
I tried to look into this
and he seems to be just about average at short, Maybe a tad better. But 4/40 is well below what he’s worth unless his back is unlikely to make a full recovery.
Think about it – a league average bat, average defense, premium position – that’s worth 12-14mil in the current market without including discounts for medical history and contract length. Yes, he’s 31, but he’s got the right skills to remain productive for a few years at least, and if his defense slips dramatically he can move to second of third which would only diminish his value by a little. By the time his contract is in its final year the cost of a marginal win will have inflated even more so he will need to do less to justify his salary.
If the M’s were anywhere near contention I’d be screaming for them to sign him. If I were the Angels I’d be signing him right now and shopping Aybar and Itzuris to every rebuilding team.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 6, 2008 9:32 PM PST up reply actions
This is what I'm thinking.
I haven’t looked too closely at the numbers, but we’re talking about an average hitter, playing shortstop, and playing it fairly well. He should be more than a 2-win player.
Assuming health, of course.
I always thought Furcal was an outstanding defender.
I mean, he’s going to decline, but “outstanding” is a good place to start from.
by JI on Dec 6, 2008 11:57 PM PST up reply actions
Me, too.
He’s not Adam Everett, but I thought he was at least above average. He seems to have average to above-average rang, and he’s got a cannon.
Furcal is very valuable. But health concerns are very real.
A league average bat and defense at SS who is 31 with a medical record isn't worth 4/50
You need to factor in the chance of major collapse. He might be worth 14 million on a one year deal. What do you think his year will look like when he is 35 years old. How many infielders are average defenders at SS (or even 2B or 3B) at 35 years old? He will likely be a pretty useless player by the time he is 35 years old if he is still even a starter.
Just an example:
Furcal is worth 15 million next year if he is good but has a 10% chance of dropping out of baseball. How much should you pay him for a 4 yr deal. With this discount what is he worth for a 1, 2, 3 and 4 yr deal?
1 yr deal: 15*0.9 = 13.5 million
2 yr: 0.9*0.9*30 + 0.9*0.1*15 = 25.65 million
3 yr: 35.24 million
4 yr: 42.65 million
(For year 2, first term is the chance he is healthy for two years multiplied by his value and the second is the chance he is healthy for one and bad for one multiplied by his value)
Discount needed if 10% chance of breakdown:
1yr: 10%
2yr: 14.5%
3yr: 21.7%
4yr: 28.9%
If Furcal is worth 14 million a year and has a breakdown chance of 10% then his true contract value for a 4 yr deal should be 39.8 million (excluding all other factors). Wow, that was lucky huh?
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 7, 2008 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah it is
And its not 90% being a 14 million player and 10% collapse. I just used those numbers as an example to show that you can’t project a player’s value by using his median projection. You need to factor in all outcomes. With a major league player the downside is always much much greater than their upside.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 7, 2008 10:42 PM PST up reply actions
PMR loved him in 07
though he didn’t see enough action to make the list on 08. I can’t find UZR for 08 if its even out yet, but 03-07 it has him as exactly average (well ok +2 runs). Nothing to sneeze at.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 6, 2008 10:00 PM PST up reply actions
Furcal's UZRs are pretty weak
On the other hand, the OC has been very good.
Neither here nor there, but this seems rather unwise, from Rotoworld
A source told the Dayton Daily News that the White Sox and Reds have completed a swap involving Jermaine Dye and Homer Bailey.
The Sox are blowin it.
Mariners ----> Brewers.
by .Taylor on Dec 7, 2008 6:24 PM PST up reply actions
meaning robbing the reds blind?
yes, yes they are.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 7, 2008 6:35 PM PST up reply actions
If the Reds were one outfielder away from the World Series then it makes a little sense although I would not do it
as it stands now the Reds look like fucking idiots
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
Actually I take that back
I thought Dye was better defensively.
There’s no way I’d do that trade
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
Ack. I meant the Reds are blowin it.
Mariners ----> Brewers.
by .Taylor on Dec 7, 2008 6:43 PM PST up reply actions
If you were abiding by the 30 second rule I believe you would have had ample time to realize your typo
As it stands you were either not waiting 30 seconds like you were supposed to or you are modifying your opinion based on the opinions of others
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
Is this analysis really necessary?
Mariners ----> Brewers.
by .Taylor on Dec 7, 2008 7:02 PM PST up reply actions
It wasn't until you made that comment
because you wouldn’t be irritated by it if it weren’t true
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
Your reasoning is sound, but your premise isn't.
I typed the wrong word. No discussion needed.
Mariners ----> Brewers.
by .Taylor on Dec 7, 2008 7:35 PM PST up reply actions
oh...wait...you used the shortened version of "White Sox"
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
Now on Rotoworld:
Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he hasn’t had any discussions with the White Sox regarding Jermaine Dye or anyone else since before Thanksgiving.
Everyone is denying that there’s any truth at all to Hal McCoy’s report of a done deal involving Dye and Homer Bailey, and there’s no reason to think they’re all bluffing. McCoy was pretty clearly working off some bad info.
Homer Bailey looks like shit right now, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they do trade him. They’ve seemed down on him for a while. Their rotation is pretty stout and they just lost two of their perceived best hitters in Griffey and Dunn. But still, I wouldn’t do it for Dye. He’s going to be 35 and appears to be a consistent -15 or so in the field.
Knowing Dye's career path I wouldn't be shocked if he hit .330/.400/.650 next year.
by JI on Dec 7, 2008 8:56 PM PST up reply actions
But holy balls what a pointless move
GO GO GO DO IT
by JI on Dec 7, 2008 8:57 PM PST up reply actions
Well the reds' park isn't that much better than the cell
so the ‘power’ may stay
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 7, 2008 9:13 PM PST up reply actions
I'll never forget the relief I felt when he fouled the ball of his leg and broke it.
The A’s had played the best of anybody against the Mariner’s that year, when he broke his leg in the postseason and it wound up New York vs. the M’s I just knew we had it locked.
Looking back, I wish he hadn't broken his leg.
But I still blame the damn terrorists for screwing with the season’s mojo. There was no way anyone was winning in New York.
So the jihadists are yankee fans?
figures.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 7, 2008 9:26 PM PST up reply actions
Didn't you know where all the terrorists got their suicide car bombing training from?
Driving taxis is New York.
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