Marquis------> Coors

by JI on Dec 30, 2008 4:58 PM PST Comment 22 comments

Rosenthal:

The Cubs, trying to clear salary while fortifying their bullpen, are close to trading right-hander Jason Marquis and cash to the Rockies for right-hander Luis Vizcaino, according to major-league sources.

The move, which is not expected to be announced until next week, would save the Cubs between $5-6 million -- money they could devote to the pursuit of a left-handed hitting outfielder such as their primary target, free agent Milton Bradley, a switch-hitter.

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Jason Marquis pisses me off so freakin' much I can't evaluate this properly, but it seems a bit questionable for the Cubs.

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I wonder how much cash

since Viz is due about $3.5M (man that was stupid), and Marquis a shade under $10M.

Marquis isn’t a terrible guy to have on a one-year deal, could give you close to league average production.

by Matthew on Dec 30, 2008 5:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Which is why I find it curious that the Cubs are giving him away

by JI on Dec 30, 2008 6:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Considering the trouble the Chicago Tribune is having selling the team, not to mention the economic woes the Tribune is facing, they wanted to move salary before signing Bradley. This move was all about moving (most of) Jason Marquis’s contract and has little to do with Vizcaino or Marquis’s value as a pitcher.

by katal on Dec 30, 2008 6:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but Bradley doesn't help them out a whole lot

his ability to stay in the lineup and his ability on defense is a big question mark. They’re shuffling a lot of chair around and not getting that much better.

At least we can use this as a benchmark for moving Washburn…

by JI on Dec 30, 2008 6:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bradley does help

Not that Chone is the be-all, end-all, but going by their projection, Bradley will have 450 PA’s (sounds about right for him) and hit .289/.397/.495. And this was a park neutral projection. Put him in the NL with half of his games in Wrigley and those numbers get even better. Even with his less than full season of playing time, with average production this makes him about a 3 WAR player. The Cubs lineup could use that. And I bet they got him for less than what 3 WAR is worth.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 6:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

While true, I think his defense will be hard to project

and if it’s bad, he’s really not all that much of a plus. The Cubs probably could have made themselves better (adding a real centerfielder) while burning fewer resources.

by JI on Dec 30, 2008 7:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Defense, etc.

Defense is always hard to project, but his advanced defensive metrics have looked pretty good. His UZR in RF has always been good-to-great. And in CF, he’s been above average every year except for 2005 when it had him as slightly below average. Given all of this, I find it hard to imagine he’ll be below average.

The Cubs probably could have made themselves better (adding a real centerfielder) while burning fewer resources.

Did they have the opportunity to add a 3 WAR CFer while burning fewer resources? Or perhaps a 2.5 WAR CFer who cost considerably less? This isn’t a snarky question; I just can’t think of that opportunity off the top of my head. Can you think of one?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 7:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course he's scored well with the metrics

but after all those injuries, including blowing out his knee, and then a year at DH I think they should be concerned.

Did they have the opportunity to add a 3 WAR CFer while burning fewer resources? Or perhaps a 2.5 WAR CFer who cost considerably less?

We did, so they could have.

by JI on Dec 30, 2008 7:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Or they could just let Pie play.

by JI on Dec 30, 2008 7:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

(He's not worth 3 wins, but you catch my drift)

by JI on Dec 30, 2008 7:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point on Gutierrez

Of course you gave up Putz and Valbuena for him so there was a significant cost there. I don’t think Pie was a good option for them. Yes they could have gone with him, but probably with poor results. For a team ready to win now, I don’t blame them on going for a clear upgrade. And you are certainly right that Bradley’s injuries could hurt his speed/range.

A question about Gutierrez. Is he really a 3 WAR CFer? I haven’t crunched the numbers on him, but if he’s going to hit around .255/.316/.403 (Chone’s projection), is he a 3 WAR player? And isn’t there a difficulty in projecting his CF defense as the data for him is from corner OF spots?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 7:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Gutierrez is worth 2 wins, maybe more if he can break +10 in CF.

by JI on Dec 30, 2008 7:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So you're saying 2 WAR?

That sounds right. I can’t blame the Cubs for wanting to go after a possibly 3 WAR choice. Personally, I don’t think the Marquis loss was a big one and if you’re rolling in revenue, then $12M (guesstimate) isn’t a big deal. That kind of contract would be a major investment for some teams, but not the Cubs.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 8:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just saying it's an awfully big commitment to add 1-1.5 wins for 2009.

by JI on Dec 30, 2008 8:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps

That’s a valid point. But the marginal value of a win for them is pretty high at this point. And it addresses a real area of need on that team. It’s not the most efficient use of resources, but when you’re resources aren’t particularly scarce, efficiency is less important and certainly much less important than the final result.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 8:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs