Community Projection: Wladimir Balentien
The eleventh in a non-alphabetical and irregularly updated series of review pieces for each(?) of the players we predicted last spring.
LL/USSM Community: .263/.320/.459
Actual Line: .202/.250/.342
Back when the whole Bedard trade went down, a lot of people who were in favor of the move tried to reassure the skeptics by pointing out that, while we may have lost Adam Jones, at least we still had an approximation in Wlad Balentien.
I don't think 2008 was exactly what those people had in mind.
While Jones was off in Baltimore establishing himself as a league average regular with solid defense, Wlad tore through AAA but had all kinds of struggles upon getting promoted, posting numbers that made him arguably the worst player in the Majors among guys who got semi-regular playing time. His first extended cup of coffee didn't go well at all, to the tune of a .611 OPS, and after going down to Tacoma for two more months of seasoning, he came back up and somehow did worse than before. It was a summer of extremes for Wlad, but none of the good ones came in Seattle, and at the end of the year I found myself reflecting upon the fact that, while with the Mariners, Wlad didn't do anything well.
There's not an advertising professional in the world who could sell Wlad's 2008 with the M's as anything other than a total failure. He didn't hit for average. He didn't get on base. He didn't hit for much power. He didn't play good defense. He didn't make contact. He didn't show any discipline. He didn't hit righties. He didn't hit lefties. He did have that big extra innings home run against the Angels, but outside of that longball, I guess you could say that it was a season-long learning experience. Even his prodigious strength only showed up on a handful of occasions, as his HR/FB% wound up around the same level as guys like Mark Teahen and Ramon Hernandez. Wlad showed that he can a few home runs, but after watching him hit 18 in 233 ABs with Tacoma, most of us expected more than seven in 243 with Seattle. I wonder if that wasn't the biggest disappointment of all.
Put simply, it was a season that everyone would like to forget. But at the same time, it was also a season that told us an awful lot about Wladimir Balentien, and how he profiles as a player. While the performance was terrible, the information we were able to glean from it is invaluable.
- Wlad's probably never going to be known for his defense. He's not exceptionally slow, and he has a bit of experience playing center field, but his instincts aren't quite there and he runs funny routes. His career upside is probably as an average defensive LF, and it's likely that he spends a lot of time in the red.
- Wlad's probably never going to be known for his ability to make contact. Of this we've been aware for a while, but even during his dual hot streaks in Tacoma, he was still missing the ball with a quarter of his swings. He's going to strike out, and he's going to have trouble when he falls behind in the count.
- Wlad's probably never going to be known for his discipline. He may end up somewhere around average, but he's a free swinger at heart, and that can be incredibly difficult to turn around. He'll draw a few walks if he's hitting. If he's not hitting, he'll swing himself into a mess.
- Wlad's probably never going to be known for his batting average. The average BA among big leaguers with contact rates at or below 75% last year was .253, and while there were a few exceptions in there, those are guys with remarkable talent, like Ryan Ludwick and Josh Hamilton. I'd be ecstatic if Wlad ever broke .270.
- Wlad's game will be his power. If only by process of elimination. But the power is real. He was able to post an above-average HR/FB% in his first season in the Majors, and he doesn't turn 25 until next July. This is a guy who hit 16 homers as an 18 year old in the AZL. Wlad's version of solid contact is entirely different than, say, Willie Ballgame's, and he should be able to settle in as a threat to hit 20-30 balls over the fence, if not a few more.
When you put it all together, you have a variation of the standard slugging corner outfielder skillset, with maybe a little better defense than usual. Which isn't too different from the consensus opinion of him a year ago, except that now people have a better understanding of the risk that always accompanies prospect-related optimism. When you see a guy as young as Wlad hitting well in the minors, it's tempting to look at him and think "future star." Wlad's 2008 season, then, serves to remind us of the folly inherent in evaluating prospects by their ceilings.
So how good or bad of a player are we dealing with, here? Let's say, for the sake of simplicity, that Wlad's true talent is as a -5 run defensive left fielder. Assuming a .335 league average wOBA and 85% playing time, here's what Wlad would have to do at the plate to be worth ~each amount of wins:
0 WAR: .320 wOBA
1 WAR: .340
2 WAR: .360
3 WAR: .380
4 WAR: .400
5 WAR: .420
Keep in mind that 2 WAR is just about a league average player. In order to be league average, Wlad would have to hit like Rick Ankiel or Carlos Guillen. In order to be a solid asset, he'd have to hit like Ryan Braun. In order to be a star, he'd have to hit like David Wright.
How likely are those outcomes? 5%? 10%? 25%? Those are all damn good hitters. Wlad's talented and all, but is he that talented? What if he just ends up hitting like, say, Marcus Thames? Or maybe Wily Mo Pena? Then he's not really helping very much, if he's helping at all. And that's obviously not a guy worth building around.
Personally, I'm just not a big fan of Wlad's type of player. They can have exciting ceilings, but rarely do they get there, because the probability distribution is skewed against them. Most of the time they end up as something less than what people imagined, and while some of them might retain their name value because of high HR or RBI totals, few of them actually contribute very much to the greater cause. Slugging corner outfielders who don't do much else just aren't really as valuable as people think.
So with all that in mind, 2009's going to be a big year for Wlad. Potentially career-defining, if you will. If he wants to establish himself as an important part of the future, he needs to put his struggles behind him and come out of the gate flashing some kind of improvement. I won't ask that he start hitting from the get-go, but he needs to look like he has a clue in April, punish a few breaking balls in June, and get into a groove down the stretch. He needs to hit at some point, and he needs to hit over a sustained period of time, because a young player only gets so long to make excuses, and Michael Saunders is on the way. In short, if Wlad wants to go on to be a good player, he needs to get started next season.
As is the case with Jeff Clement, the time is now for Wladimir Balentien to show what he can do. Prospect sheens don't last forever. Realistically speaking, 2009 won't be the last chance for either player, but it would behoove both of them to treat it as such. Impress me.
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42 comments
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Comments
With Saunders, Halman, Raben, and Carrera coming
2009 is Wlad’s last shot in Seattle. If he doesn’t hit this year, he’ll become something of an afterthought.
by davidcameron on Dec 27, 2008 9:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Does Raben really have what it takes to be in the outfield?
by Fogel on Dec 27, 2008 10:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Depends who you talk to
Some scouts like him out there, some don’t. It sounds like the new front office is inclined to leave him out there for the time being, at least.
by davidcameron on Dec 27, 2008 10:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What happened to him playing first?
Man do I love midgets.
by Thingray on Dec 29, 2008 12:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Lets not forget
Safeco is about the worst possible field that Wlad could call home with his skill set. He’s really not a good fit.
by coasty141 on Dec 27, 2008 9:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'd agree in regards to defense, but I don't see how it really applies to his offense..
He has massive power, when he squares up a ball it’s going to go very far, not get knocked down at the track because of Safeco. I would think Safeco hurts guys like Lopez who is a RH bat who when he hits home runs at Safeco they arent clearing the wall by much, and has a number of other balls caught at the track. Wlad, I cant recall many occasions where he was hurt by the park last year, unless you make an argument that he swings harder leading to worse contact rates, because he’s trying to battle the left field Safeco issue.
by DarkLou on Dec 27, 2008 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To back up that point
Lopez’s HR basically track the LF wall. Wlad’s fly much farther than any wall can contain. Looking at the hitting chart for Wlad in Safeco it looks like a couple of his doubles which went to the gaps might have made it out in other parks but I don’t remember if they had the height or if they were line drives.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 27, 2008 12:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've never really bought into this argument
No matter how strong a guy is, he’s not going to hit every single fly ball 400 feet. There’s always going to be a spread, and just because someone is capable of hitting the ball really far doesn’t mean he can’t be hurt by Safeco at the same time.
This is a hitter who wouldn’t be affected by Safeco:
That doesn’t look very realistic. Here’s Wlad:
Already you can see a few balls that might’ve left another yard, and that’s just 129 ABs.
by Jeff on Dec 27, 2008 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
A lot of those doubles are line drives
And the ones down the RF line aren’t affected by the Safeco dimensions. The only ones I’d think that would maybe be in question are the few you see in the RF/CF gap. I would guess that 2 of those might get out in most parks. So hurt a little but its not the reason why he’ll suck.
Need hit f/x soo badly…
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 27, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Part of building a team is putting your players in a position they can succeed
And having players that fit your ballpark. Based on what we saw last year, we are hoping Wlad can be a league avg player. Thats going to be tough in Safeco’s enviroment.
by coasty141 on Dec 27, 2008 12:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So we should get rid of all our right handed OF prospects?
Safeco is an issue but it doesn’t make RHB useless.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 27, 2008 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No but you should favor lefties or switch hitters when possible
If you can trade Wlad for his left handed/switch hitting equal then you should do it.
by JI on Dec 27, 2008 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think when you are developing low level prospects
you don’t worry about that and just go after the best talent available. If you are drafting players that are almost MLB-ready (high draft pick like Clement) then you should totally factor this into your decisions.
If you say that Safeco depressed RHB’s stats by about 5-10% and they play half their games at home then you are only looking at a value depression of a few percent. A good player can pretty easily cancel that out. If we can trade Wlad for Lefty Wlad then sure, do it. I don’t remember the last time I saw a trade like this get done though.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 27, 2008 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well obviously
but Wlad isn’t a low level prospect and he can’t go back to the minors.
Play half their games at home then you are only looking at a value depression of a few percent.
Depends on the skillset. Mike Cameron hit like Carlos Beltran on the road when he played at Safeco.
by JI on Dec 27, 2008 1:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I'm just saying usually you are only looking at a few percent difference
for an average RHB. Low contact power hitters like Wlad and Cameron struggle because LF/CF gap is a deathtrap for them. Its not like there are really a lot of these types of players in our minor league system.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 27, 2008 4:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not the reason why he'll suck
but the original argument was that Wlad isn’t hurt by Safeco, and that just isn’t true.
by Jeff on Dec 27, 2008 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Safeco has a negative impact on all right handed batters
who put the ball in the air to left field. Wlad is not the magical exception.
by coasty141 on Dec 27, 2008 12:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"There's not an advertising professional in the world who could sell Wlad's 2008 with the M's as anything other than a total failure."
Detect-o-vision.
by spittle8 on Dec 27, 2008 9:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
There's nothing wrong with a little healthy optimism.
….or a lot of healthy optimism.
Big Z is the MAN.
by Taylor H on Dec 27, 2008 6:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I really was hoping Wlad would grab RF and not let go last year.
After watching him up close I am willing to ship him off for any value we can get.
His defense makes him a bad fit for Safeco since he already has power to wrong part of the park.
by Sec 108 on Dec 27, 2008 9:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
ZiPS for Balentien aren' pretty
.240/.300/.420, which pretty much means Balentien is a replacement level player.
I predict that Wlad is out of the majors by 2011. He displays horrible pitch selection and terrible contact. He’s not a free swinger: he swings at only about 2% more than the average hitter; he’s a terrible swinger that swings at pitches he can’t hit well, and doesn’t show pretty contact numbers on pitches in the zone.
by philosofool on Dec 27, 2008 9:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Jay Buhner is probably the best he could ever turn into
He isn’t a bad player to give playing time to because he’s got enough power that if he can develop any other skill (defense, contact, discipline). His power is enough to let him survive in the majors but to become anything he’ll have to do something else decently well. Since we don’t have anyone significantly better we might as well give him some time so see what he does. I don’t have great hopes for him after last year but it seems like the right thing to do at this point.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 27, 2008 11:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he could ever turn into Buhner
he’d have to develop a great batting eye, and above average defensive skills (for a corner OF).
by JI on Dec 27, 2008 11:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Developing above average defensive skills shouldn't be too hard for Wlad
I feel like he might be able to get that with just experience. Buhner never had great range and I love the guy but his defense might be a little overrated. I loved his arm but range is more valuable than a cannon for an OF.
If Wlad wants to turn into anything useful, a little plate discipline could go a long way.
I used Buhner as a ceiling. I think Willy Mo Pena is a lot more likely.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 27, 2008 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Let's not forget the first five at-bats in that Angels game where he hit the home run
four strikeouts and a weak grounder to first. Got behind 0-2 or 1-2 in all six at bats.
by seattlebruin on Dec 27, 2008 1:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think he's pointing out that in the first five at-bats, Wlad faced an 0-2 or 1-2 count, and did the same in the sixth one, but hit a homer that time,
I think. Boy, I should go to sleep.
Big Z is the MAN.
by Taylor H on Dec 28, 2008 12:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good job, Taylor
you got it right, though I think Fogel was pointing out that I specifically referred to the first five at-bats before throwing in the sixth outcome without warning.
by seattlebruin on Dec 28, 2008 1:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Would it not be prudent to inflate his value than get something nifty for him from a dumb team?
by Robert on Dec 27, 2008 1:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Ludwick's a remarkable talent?
It was a good year, but it did come a little bit out of nowhere. I think he’s got a few more solid seasons in him, but remarkable talent seems like a pretty extreme statement.
by DAMellen on Dec 27, 2008 10:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
.400+ wOBA seasons aren't often flukes.
He might be a one year wonder, but I think it’s far more likely that he’s a late bloomer. You almost have to give him the benefit of the doubt after a season like that.
by acblue on Dec 27, 2008 10:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
1300 PAs of .273/.345/.512 baseball
Last year was probably his peak, but he could end up as a good fielding Jason Bay
by JI on Dec 27, 2008 11:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Silva critique will be absolute gold.
It's a crazy messed-up world... It's a doggy-dogg world...
by oc on Dec 28, 2008 1:12 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

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