Community Projection: Willie Ballgame
The tenth in a non-alphabetical and irregularly updated series of review pieces for each(?) of the players we predicted last spring.
LL/USSM Community: .255/.315/.307
Actual Line: .279/.377/.285
And so we can finally put an end to the dreadful grit and hustle jokes that never seemed to stop.
As years go, 2008 could've been kinder to Mr. Ballgame. Never a guy who took much of a shining to his role as a backup, all Willie's ever wanted is more playing time, but playing time he didn't get. His pinch-running job was usurped by Miguel Cairo, which left him scrambling for work in other areas, and while he was able to get a little early time in right field, he started in just ten of the team's first 62 games and didn't get semi-regular action until the season was beyond the point of irrelevance. Then he injured himself running out a grounder in early August and never came back. Willie tried to return, but the team resisted, and come October Willie found himself going into free agency having made the fewest appearances of his career. There are a lot of ways to go into free agency, but that isn't a very popular one among the players looking for cash.
It wasn't just the lack of playing time that frustrated Willie, either - there was also the whole bad hitting thing that kind of got on his nerves. Willie's never had the most potent bat in the world, but it was what he did between 7/18/07 and 7/8/08 that nearly got him into the history books. For over this period of time spanning 356 days, 193 plate appearances, and 87 games, Willie went without an extra-base hit. No doubles. No triples. Certainly no homers. All 42 of Willie's hits during that stretch were singles, including one on July 1st that would've easily gone for a two-bagger had it not won the game. Instead it got marked down as a single, as Raul Ibanez was somehow able to outrun Willie in a 60 yard dash. As the games mounted it felt like things were meant to be, and while Willie would sadly get his first extra-base hit nine days later and fall short of the record, that extra-base hit would be his only extra-base hit, and that wound up tying him with Felix Hernandez. Among players with at least 150 PAs in a season, I believe Willie's .006 isolated power is the lowest of all time.
.279/.377/.285. It's comical is what it is. I remember a bunch of years ago I was amazed that Tom Goodwin's OBP could top his SLG. Not only did Willie's OBP top his SLG - it topped it by damn near a hundred points. It was a page right out of the Reggie Willits playbook, except instead of standing still, Willie would swing sometimes and foul the ball off. It was incredible to watch, because here we had one of the most feeble hitters in the league, and pitchers couldn't throw him consistent strikes. That Willie was able to draw his highest walk total while appearing in the fewest games of his ML career is nothing short of miraculous.
That batting line isn't sustainable going forward, of course. Willie's swing rate at balls out of the zone is only slightly better than the average, so his walk rate will come down, and no matter who you are, it's basically impossible for your power to suck that bad, so his IsoP will go up. His true talent at this point is somewhere around .270/.330/.320, sort of the standard line for a player of his ilk. But no matter who he is or what he does from this point on, nothing will ever change the fact that, in 2008, Willie Ballgame posted one of the strangest slash lines in baseball history. So this season wasn't a total loss.
It's hard to believe that Willie turned 31 last month. It's a combination of effects, I think; for one thing, it still feels like his crazy September debut was just yesterday, and for another, in my head white utility players are always little 26 year old balls of spunk. It's weird to think of Willie as being past his prime, whenever the hell that was. But he is, and now that he's a free agent, he gets to try and pitch himself as an experienced jack-of-all-trades who can fill in at almost any position in a flash without embarrassing himself or the team. And while that's all perfectly true, he doesn't possess the most impressive skillset, and he's highly unlikely to ever land the kind of job he thinks he's capable of doing. There just aren't that many teams willing to throw a lot of regular playing time at a 30+ year old career utility guy who's never once demonstrated the ability to not be bad.
For Willie, I wish him the best of luck, since he never played enough to be a real problem. Hopefully he's able to get used to the fact that he'll always be seen as a backup. For us, things are sure going to be weird without our little Ignitor. Say what you will about how much crap we gave Willie over the years, but (A) it was directed more at Willie's irrational supporters than at Willie himself, and (B) it was all in good fun. The whole time, it was all in good fun. I mean, okay, maybe there were two or three instances in which people got really upset with him, but that's nothing compared to some of the seething rage we've seen pointed towards guys like Horacio Ramirez and Carlos Silva. Willie's just always been there for the easy joke when we needed a break from legitimate anger, and now that he's gone, I'm not sure who's going to take his place. Reegie Corona? I guess we'll have to wait for Rick Rizzs' cue.
Willie Ballgame's not a good player. He's never been a good player, and he's never going to be a good player. But for the past six seasons, he's been a constant source of humor through some of the darkest days in the history of the franchise, and for that I couldn't be more thankful. I'm going to miss you, little buddy. You and your laughable talent. The last thing you ever did in a Mariner uniform was get hurt while running your ass off, and I imagine neither you nor I would have it any other way.
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Comments
Just like how my problem was never with Willie himself, but the way he was used/idolized
I see his departure as a final nail in the coffin marked “Bavasi’s Way of Doing Business”. There will still be more changes to come before Spring Training, sure, but the fact that Z’s crew felt OK letting WIllie walk says as much about where he wants the team to go as does the players he’s signed thus far.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Dec 26, 2008 6:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
You know a guy has been here to long when kids in little league say that Willie Bloomquist is their favorite player.
"I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul. I plan to face him with the zeal of a challenger."
-Ichiro on Dice-K
by seatownsports on Dec 26, 2008 6:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Willie Bloomquist is from my hometown
of Port Orchard. My Mother’s coworkers coached him in T-ball and he went to the High-school I was slated to attend. I for one apologize for irrational Willie lust, but if you’ve ever paid an extended stay in Port Orchard, you’ll realize that it is a white trash shithole and the meth capital of the state. For one of those people to play the all-American sport at the premium level, and for the home team no less!, was nothing short of mildly exciting. Until then, our only export had been methamphetamine and teenaged death.
Let me state that Bremerton is not Willie’s port of call. Bremerton is either a short foot-ferry ride away from Bay Street, or a drive around the bay. Port Orchard is nowhere near as industrialized or significant as Bremerton, nor is it as ugly or hopeless a place.
Who didn’t love seeing Bloomquist steal third? It was adorable. I, for one, will miss his presence. I got into baseball not due to any appreciation of talent or relative value, but rather personalities. I thought it was fucking awesome that the greatest hitter ever would spit at heckling crowds, or that John Olerud was really fucking ugly. I thought it was funny that the guy all the ladies liked on our local team was short and had elephant ears, or that our best pitcher was a geriatric that threw batting-practice fastballs. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that. It’s harder for me to get excited about a team full of Dominicans who, I’m sure, work very hard and have adorable quirks of their own, simply aren’t cute (Beltre excluded). Take Felix, for example. Talented & all, but he looks like Sidney Ponson with a tan. What’s adorable about him? I like winning, but the magic that got me into the team in the first place had a lot to do with character. As best as I can tell, we have no Bob Gibson, some crazy fucker that you can get excited about.
Please don’t take this to mean I’m not into the team, or that I’m more interested in characters than winning, I’m merely trying to account for Willie’s popularity. He was boring as shit, but he had a local catch. Now that Sherrill and Putz are gone, who do we have that is fucking awesome or hilarious other than Beltre? Ichiro is great, but besides his quotes, is impressively boring after watching him for 7 years. Baseball in general seems to be losing its character and edge, replaced with a sanitized veneer that I’m not buying.
by spittle8 on Dec 26, 2008 7:44 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I hear what you're saying
but Carl Everett and Player A were characters, too. Ultimately, what should matter to management is winning and good roster construction. “Characters” can be created in the blink of an eye. See Tuesdays with Sean Green.
For my part, goodbye Mr. Bloomquist, I wish you well, though I will not miss you. Your call for more playing time frightened me in an era where we had management who would possibly cater to your request.
by Omerta on Dec 26, 2008 9:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nicely said.
Watching the majority of the players Bill Bavasi signed struggle and fail and the team decline under his watch hasn’t been fun. Listening to the rhetoric from Bill about his veteran signings, and watching the majority of those players struggle and wash up hasn’t been fun. Bill ran around like the little Dutch Boy, trying to plug the leaks, never addressing the real problems with the team. Resigning yourself to a failed season, or a game lost, before they even start isn’t fun.
Watching Willie play was fun. He played to the maximum of his abilities, he did the things his manager asked him to do.
Formerly dpseadvr.
by Kermit. on Dec 26, 2008 9:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bavasi
Well, arguably, Bavasi GMed to the maximum of his abilities as well, as sad as that is!
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Dec 26, 2008 10:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rizzs and that small mammal that lives symbiotically atop his head are weeping.
He didn’t merely steal bases, no he obtained Money Bag$!
He wasn’t much of a hitter, but he was a HOF gritter. Yuk yuk. We won’t have The WFB to kick around anymore.
.279/.377/.285! Seriously. How the hell do you even manage to pull off such a line?
I too will miss the simple good natured comedy Willie Boom-Boom provided us with. So much of the comedy this team has provided us with these past few years of darkness has been based on true anger. Cirillo, Big Richie, Player A, Jurassic Carl, Aurilia, Silva, HoRam, Yuni, Wilkerson, Mateo……..they all generated (and earned) true vitriol from many fans. It was never like that with Willie.
He didn’t show up here and forget how to hit like so many others. He never could hit to begin with! He also didn’t produce many of the brain-dead and/or lackadaisical sort plays that have been a hallmark of recent M’s history. His brain and effort were always in the game. I’ll wager he’s never been fat and out of shape a day in his life either.
I wish Willie the very best. Maybe someone (Cincy?) will give him that starting job he’s so convinced he deserves. I think he has some degree of value for the right team………..at the end of a deep bench. Willie the player will not be missed, but Willie Ballgame the character will always occupy a soft spot in my heart.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game."
-Rickey
by Big Jared on Dec 26, 2008 12:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
An era in Mariner baseball is coming to an end.
Little Willie Fucking Boom-Boom Ballgame,
I never hated you.
I hated the media hype around you. I hated the “news” story about how the hardest part of your day was not seeing your name as a starter. I hated arguing with my friends about how you should not be a starter.
I hated Carl Everett. I HATED Vidro. I have grown to hate Raul in these last few months.
I never hated you as a person. I hope you get that starting job. I hope, someday in the future, I can send my yet unborn kid to your not-yet-created summer baseball camp.
Good luck, you gritty bastard!
Mark Sobba
by mark sobba on Dec 26, 2008 2:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I always thought Raul was effing awesome
He just sucked in LF. Can you blame him for not demanding to be DH’ed?
by spittle8 on Dec 26, 2008 6:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Willie's career wrapped up into a single .gif
That’s what we have here.
by DKCecil on Dec 26, 2008 6:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Simply wrong
unintentionally hilarious, though.
by spittle8 on Dec 26, 2008 6:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is there anyway to figure out WFB's average leverage for all his SB and CS this year?
wOBA on fangraphs does not account for SB/CS correct?
Is there anywhere that calculates the value of SB and CS using the in game leverage? If we calculate the the value of a relief pitcher using leverage then shouldn’t this be applied to pinch runners too?
For example:
Willie had 71 SB and 16 CS as a Mariner giving him a 81.6% success rate. Not the best ever but pretty darn good and given the fact that most people knew he was running, this is almost a little impressive. Even more impressive, when the game was within one run he had 45 SB and 9 CS for a success rate of 83.3%.
If we assume each stolen base was worth around 0.24 runs and each caught stealing was worth -0.66 runs (this is true for no outs and man on 1B) then we find his contributions from his baserunning is around +17 runs for the SB and -10.5 runs for the CS. This means he contributed about 6.5 runs. Since he is a pinch runner in these situations usually the LI will be much higher than normal situations. Most closers have a LI of around 1.5 so if we assume this we find that Willie’s total contribution is worth closer to 10 runs or about 1 win spaced over his time with us.
For some reason I thought that a pinch runner would have more value than that. The replacement value for a pinch runner probably has a pretty high SB/CS and probably can be found easily since the only requirement is to be fast and this is easy to find on any AAA team.
In recap, WFB’s most valuable skill isn’t nearly as valuable as I thought it’d be and he probably should be the definition of a replacement player. I feel a little bad for the guy. Nobody wants to be branded as the definition of a guy who is easy to replace. To his credit, he’s made more money than I ever will and probably has a hot wife.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 26, 2008 6:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Willie's SB attempts this year
14 successful: +28.1% WPA
3 failed: -13.1%
Average leverage for all attempts: 1.35, yielding a total runs gained for 2008 of 1.31.
by Jeff on Dec 26, 2008 8:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It never stops amazing me how little value a SB has
even if it is done by pinch runners in relatively high leverage situations.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 26, 2008 9:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bye bye Willie.
At least your mother died and left me queen.
by NOLAmarinergirl on Dec 26, 2008 7:00 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Hmmm.
As I mentioned at USSM, looking at WAR, he was actually a $200K bargain this year (an extra 20% for his contracted services)!
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Dec 28, 2008 2:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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