Where they stand now: 2009 AL starting lineups WAR, who is/is not ugly
by JI on Dec 23, 2008 11:35 PM PST
63 comments
Tools at my disposal:
ac's WAR spreadsheet
Marcel projections
3 yr UZR averages (where available)
Disclaimers:
-This is amateur hour: these things aren't park adjusted. Maybe I misunderstood, but I was told not to bother.
-These are only WAR projections for the starting lineups. (Like I have a pitchers spreadsheet).
-Some team's rosters aren't set, and most of those gaps are filled by replacement players
-I probably missed players that aren't on the 40 man, but will make their teams
-Any missing data such as playing time allotments, and defensive ratings where there was insufficient data was filled in with my best guess.
-I avoided flunking Geometry mostly because of pity, and passed Algebra II /Trig because I cheated. I have no idea how these calculations work, I just know that plug in the appropriate numbers ------> ***MAGIC***----> projection.
On to the numbers:
Totals in WAR:
AL West:
TEX: 19.84, OAK 18.79, , ANA 13.22, SEA 9.69
AL Central
DET 19.61, CLE 19.32, MIN 14.86, KC 13.01, CWS 12.68
AL East
BOS 23.89, TB 22.73, NYY 21.22, TOR 14.81, BAL 14.03
A few thoughts:
-If the A's are healthy we are boned. I don't know where those extra wins are going to come from. If we wanna win next year Wlad has to go away and the middle infield has to be fixed, and we need to add another impact player on top of that.
-Boston doesn't have their bench set, the Rays don't have a DH: those totals are headed north. The Yankees need a CFer hard.
-Assuming he is a plus defender, Fernando Perez is a beast. Normally I would curse a team with this kind of depth but fuck New York and Boston.
-Jermaine Dye projects to be worth less than one win. He's my new Raul.
UPDATE: I forgot my M's spreadsheet (the prototype) used the Bill James projections, which are just nutty. Marcels thinks we blow hard, but there's reason to believe that Ichiro, Branyan, Beltre, and even Wlad can beat their projections.
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Good job.
But does anyone have any good idea of what the Mariners Pitcher’s WAR could be?
by Fin on Dec 23, 2008 11:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If I just had to guess
ANA>SEA>OAK>>>>TEX
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 23, 2008 11:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's about 13-14, but take that with an entire salt lick
by JI on Dec 23, 2008 11:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The smart people said 77-80ish
obviously, if Felix take a step forward, Bedard is healthy, Heilman regains his form etc. we are fucking set.
by JI on Dec 23, 2008 11:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My prediction is that
last year, I predicted that the Mariners would be a .500 team, and they ended up being a lot worse. This year, I will predict they will be .500, but could be better if things break right. We’ll see.
Maybe since last year the Mariners got so many bad breaks, maybe it will even out next year with so many good breaks.
by Fin on Dec 24, 2008 12:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Or they will end up below .500 again
and learn something.
I think around 80 will be great. We’ll see how it ends up.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 24, 2008 12:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they're going to be significantly improved this year.
At this point, I’m fairly comfortable calling them a 75-80 win team, which could break one way or the other depending on what they do between now and opening day. Still, they could go 61-101 again and this season will be way more fun to watch than last year’s 61-101.
by acblue on Dec 24, 2008 1:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
There is no chance I see Vidro at DH and Cairo at 1B. This means a lot for my personal wellbeing.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 24, 2008 10:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't any regular person who would start Vidro at DH and Cairo at 1B
Let alone a major league manager. I can’t put in words how sad our lineups were last year. At least we finally have some hope.
by Fin on Dec 24, 2008 12:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Remember how many good breaks the M's got in 2007?
I think 2008 was evening out 2007.
Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber
by Wilder. on Dec 24, 2008 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I have a feeling the Angels are going to pull a 2004 Mariners this year.
by acblue on Dec 23, 2008 11:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
They look similar don't they?
Middling, aging lineup, good pitchers
I don’t think they’ll lose 100 games obviously, but sub .500 isn’t out of the question.
by JI on Dec 24, 2008 12:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think sub .500 is more likely than 90 wins by a fair bit
but I am incapable of being objective about the Angels in the exact opposite way I am incapable of being objective about Adrian Beltre.
by acblue on Dec 24, 2008 12:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, this is a bet I would take.
I understand the hate, but my god….
They were incredibly lucky in terms of W/L in 2008. At the same time, look at the players that might be reasonably expected to improve upon their 2008 production: Figgins, Kendrick (just in playing time, at the least), Aybar, Matthews, Mathis.
Santana should regress, along with Saunders, and Garland (along with Vlad and Torii)… but by how much? The worrisome thing to me (just like last year) is that if someone really does come out and shit the bed, they’ll have a replacement ready. Not to slot in replacement-level performance, but damn near league-average. It’s not clear that Garland even has a job if Escobar comes back. Any time they want, they can add a win or so to their WAR by moving GMJ to RF and Vlad to DH. If one of them sucks, Juan Rivera. These are the kinds of luxuries the M’s simply don’t have.
Then there’s the fact that their infield defense (or their defense in general) was supposed to be wretched last year, and was actually above average. I don’t like it, but they’re still the favorites. I just remember this type of thinking at this point last year. 2008 was supposed to be their low point! Fucking assholes.
by marc w on Dec 24, 2008 12:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My main point is that I think the division winner is going to win ~85-88 games, and I the Angels are full of collapse potential.
I think the A’s are better but I don’t think there are any good teams in the division; the A’s and Angels are both above average.
by acblue on Dec 24, 2008 12:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
His post was good but I have trouble buying into anything that has Endy Chavez as being more valuable than Ichiro.
by acblue on Dec 24, 2008 12:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Endy Chavez is something like a 1 win player if everything goes right
A shorthand way to think about it:
Great glove + shitty bat = ~1 WAR
by JI on Dec 24, 2008 12:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's got Endy at 2.4 WAR and Ichiro at 2.2 WAR.
by acblue on Dec 24, 2008 12:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He also has Chavez in CF for some reason.
by Matthew on Dec 24, 2008 8:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup. I don't get that.
But it’s still a nice reference.
by acblue on Dec 24, 2008 12:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be happy to upload my spreadsheets if someone really wants to see them
I just don’t know quite how to do that at the moment
by JI on Dec 24, 2008 12:10 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Marcel, Balentien, and Projection
Balentien’s Marcel is based on essentially one year of extremely poor performance which (according to ac’s spreadsheet) shows that he should be paying us 3.8 million just to play on our team. That’s bad. So bad that I think it would be safe to assume that he either won’t hit anywhere near that poorly and, in the off chance he does, will be replaced or upgraded by mid year.
Marcel does not seem like the best projection system for single year players with remarkably weak performances considering their skill set, but since the CHONE projections you noted above seem to say the same things, I don’t know if there is a better way. It almost seems like guessing for younger players would be more accurate than using projections.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Dec 24, 2008 4:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but Wlad's just not very good to begin with
he strikes out a ton, doesn’t walk a lot, and gets murdered by Safeco. Obviously there’s some upside there, but he’s not a grade A prospect.
by JI on Dec 24, 2008 9:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think there's very little upside there.
I think his ceiling is Wily Mo Pena except not nearly as good.
by acblue on Dec 24, 2008 12:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember USSM quoting a scout saying his
ceiling was Magglio or Carlos Lee.
by JI on Dec 24, 2008 12:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
uh.. that scout was drunk
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
by abender20 on Dec 24, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Weapons of Mass Pena is not very good. That doesn't bode well for Wlad
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
by abender20 on Dec 24, 2008 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cool stuff.
I think baserunning’s being overlooked across the blogosphere as WAR gets more popular. BPro actually has a good stat available. If using wOBA that already includes SB/CS, just ignore that piece of the puzzle.
It’s a rather small matter for individuals (mostly +/- 5 runs), but it can add up on the team level. The Twins were +15 runs in 2008, as an example.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 25, 2008 5:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If we could factor that in it'd be great,
but at the same time the margin of error here is huge, so I don’t know how much it would help until we do something like this pulling from multiple projection/defensive systems
by JI on Dec 25, 2008 5:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel like somebody has already done it
but has there been anybody who has looked at the effect of leverage on SB/CS? How much does that effect the value of these events for most players? If there is an article out there, just let me know who did it and i’ll try to hunt it down.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 26, 2008 2:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
I feel like i’ve read it somewhere. The Book sounds like the right place to look
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 26, 2008 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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