FanPost

Where they stand now: 2009 AL starting lineups WAR, who is/is not ugly

Tools at my disposal:

ac's WAR spreadsheet

Marcel projections

3 yr UZR averages (where available)

Disclaimers:

-This is amateur hour: these things aren't park adjusted. Maybe I misunderstood, but I was told not to bother.

-These are only WAR projections for the starting lineups. (Like I have a pitchers spreadsheet).

-Some team's rosters aren't set, and most of those gaps are filled by replacement players

-I probably missed players that aren't on the 40 man, but will make their teams

-Any missing data such as playing time allotments, and defensive ratings where there was insufficient data was filled in with my best guess.

-I avoided flunking Geometry mostly because of pity, and passed Algebra II /Trig because I cheated. I have no idea how these calculations work, I just know that plug in the appropriate numbers ------> ***MAGIC***----> projection.

On to the numbers:

Totals in WAR:

AL West:

TEX: 19.84, OAK 18.79, , ANA 13.22, SEA 9.69

AL Central

DET 19.61, CLE 19.32, MIN 14.86, KC 13.01, CWS 12.68

AL East

BOS 23.89, TB 22.73, NYY 21.22, TOR 14.81, BAL 14.03

 

A few thoughts:

-If the A's are healthy we are boned. I don't know where those extra wins are going to come from. If we wanna win next year Wlad has to go away and the middle infield has to be fixed, and we need to add another impact player on top of that.

-Boston doesn't have their bench set, the Rays don't have a DH: those totals are headed north. The Yankees need a CFer hard.

-Assuming he is a plus defender, Fernando Perez is a beast. Normally I would curse a team with this kind of depth but fuck New York and Boston.

-Jermaine Dye projects to be worth less than one win. He's my new Raul.

UPDATE: I forgot my M's spreadsheet (the prototype) used the Bill James projections, which are just nutty. Marcels thinks we blow hard, but there's reason to believe that Ichiro, Branyan, Beltre, and even Wlad can beat their projections.