Today's Fun Fact

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 3:51 PM PST in The More You Know Comment 76 comments

Based on some nifty WAR calculations and a few best guesses concerning roles and playing time, the Mariners, as currently constructed, are within ten games of the Angels.

It's not that we're a particularly strong team, mind you; for now, we're staring a 75- or 80-win season in the face. It's that the Angels just aren't that good. They were a mid-80s win team a year ago, and now they'll be without their best player. I know the rotation is excellent, but a team isn't going to win 100 games with that lineup or that outfield defense. They're in questionable shape, and signing a slow slugging LF isn't going to make things much better. (In fact, we remain within ten games even in the event that they sign Adam Dunn.)

I'm sure we'll talk about this in better detail a million more times as the season approaches and the rosters take shape, but for the time being, make no mistake - while Zduriencik may not be saying very much about 2009, it's far from a lost cause. All we've wanted since early last summer was for a new front office to come in and rebuild with an eye towards remaining competitive, and from all indications, we're geting our wish. It's awesome.

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What would you to add wins?

I can’t wait until March when potentially LL/USSM is projecting the M’s to contend and the MSM has them losing 100 games.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 3:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I kind of like the idea of going after Bradley to DH and giving Clement backup work and 50/50 at catcher

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Even with that add on

Short of add Tex, I think we have to fix second and short

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

(adding)

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you

but the solutions aren’t nearly as obvious or easy to get.

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 5:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The two most obvious ones (to me)

were Greene and Furcal and they’re gone.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 5:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know that Greene would've been a good fit here

Furcal, yeah.

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 5:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He would have been an upgrade, but yeah this park would hurt him too.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 5:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And he's not a long-term solution anyway, which is what we need

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 5:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If Orlando Hudson's market collapses I may be interested

but his downward defensive trends are worrying.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 5:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It would be nice if we had a rotation spot open and some money to spend on Ben Sheets, Randy Johnson

or Derek Lowe when his market bottoms out.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 5:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Like RJ would come back

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 5:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We could apologize in the most humiliating way possible.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 5:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Or we could just watch him get his 300th win and 5000th K against us in an Angels/rangers/A's uniform.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 5:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm down with signing Bradley.

What about giving Clement some time at first as well? I just don’t think he’s going to stick at catcher.

You're trying to kidnap what I've rightfully stolen.

by Sentinel on Dec 22, 2008 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He's never played first

Considering we already will have 2 1Bmen on the roster, it’s pointless.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll post something on this shortly

by Graham on Dec 22, 2008 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I’ll post something

What’s the face you use for actual surprise?

by Fogel on Dec 23, 2008 1:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

.

by acblue on Dec 23, 2008 1:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Would Bradley sign to be a DH?

What do you think it would take to sign him?

One thing I like about Z’s moves is that they have left us with a lot of flexibilty

by coasty141 on Dec 22, 2008 5:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He did last year

by Mariner John on Dec 22, 2008 6:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

How would you compare Bradley to Abreu?

I read somewhere that nobody’s giving him what he wants so he’s starting to ask for less.

by DAMellen on Dec 22, 2008 6:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Man its weird how now we're the optimistic ones

And the casual fans are the pessimists.

by Fin on Dec 22, 2008 4:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

We had a lot more time accept the losing and be pessimistic

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They're not pessimistic over at the P-I forum.

As far as most are concerned over there, Dunn is the missing link that’ll take this team over the top.

You're trying to kidnap what I've rightfully stolen.

by Sentinel on Dec 22, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Replace Dunn with Tex and the gap narrows quite a bit

I’m just sad that we’re in such a dismal position that trying for Tex was never an option. He has great talent, but 8 years is a LONG time.

by batura on Dec 22, 2008 8:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm most anxious about Clement's situation.

Whether he’ll stick at catcher or DH. It’ll be interesting to see what Wakamatsu does with him as the season progresses.

You're trying to kidnap what I've rightfully stolen.

by Sentinel on Dec 22, 2008 4:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

A Clement/Joh combo projects to be ~league average

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 4:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This optimism is really messing with my head.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Dec 22, 2008 4:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's 2001 all over again!

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 4:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

(I was the only one saying we'd win)!

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 4:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If this optimism keeps up, I'll have to blame my constant drinking on alchoholism...

Instead of simply being a M’s fan.

Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.

by JAH on Dec 22, 2008 4:27 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

This could be a problem for quite a few of us.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Dec 22, 2008 4:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What do you guys think of the bullpen?

After losing Putz and Green I feel like they are gonna struggle to be league average. I know they are really variable but what WAR value would you give them?

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 22, 2008 4:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/12/18/697237/looking-at-a-different-bul
http://www.baseballprojection.com/SEA2009p.htm

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 4:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I've seen that stuff

I was just wondering what WAR you guys actually thought if you had to give them a number

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 22, 2008 4:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They have WAR numbers on the individual pitcher pages.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 4:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but they are based on playing time projections

I don’t trust those from projection systems.

Just wondering what people were actually thinking.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 22, 2008 5:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Our bullpen was below average last year too and I'm just giving them ~2 WAR as a unit

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 5:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Upon closer inspection

3 might be a better estimate. Maybe even 4 if you think they’ll be a little above average.

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 5:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

2 probably sounds realistic

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 22, 2008 6:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Seems like improving the lineup in the future might be tricky

to turn this team into a 90 win team. We have filled our gaping holes at 1B and CF but it feels like we have too many positions that are 1 or 2 WAR players and too few 4+ WAR players. Does anybody think that is going to lead to some problems in roster construction and improvement to make this team into a playoff team?

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 22, 2008 4:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Depends what they do with the middle infield

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 5:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yuni and Lopez are probably something 1-2 WAR each

Any easy replacement we can find would probably only be something like 2-3 WAR. That gives you 2 more wins. I guess I feel like our team doesn’t have enough prospects that can contribute 4+ WAR. I guess I feel like we need our version of an Utley or Sizemore. I understand we can still become a good team without stars but it feels like it may be tough for a couple years until our farm system pumps out some homegrown stars.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 22, 2008 6:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Yuni even sniffs 2 WAR unless something dramatic changes

same with Lopez, really.

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 7:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yuni would have to be something like +10 on defense

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 7:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I originally typed 1 WAR

and then bumped it up because I was feeling kind.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 23, 2008 1:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

How crazy...

is taking a run at Tex now? Yeah, the contract is long and for big money, but he should be good for quite a few years. Plus, we don’t seem to have a long term answer in the system for first base.

What should the plan for first base be going forward?

by SoCal M's on Dec 22, 2008 5:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Teixeira will probably be a mediocre player at age 36

Sluggers are overvalued, firstbasemen are easy to find. So I’d say pretty crazy if the rumors are true.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 5:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Draft?

by ThundaPC on Dec 22, 2008 5:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Carp or Jeff Clement are my guesses

We already have a stopgap platoon for this year.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 22, 2008 5:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Too crazy

Teixeira locks you in for far too long, and I doubt he’s interested in playing here anyway.

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 5:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not that I think its a good idea anymore but Tex has mentioned interest in Seattle in particular

by Robert on Dec 22, 2008 7:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Looking over the Chone's projections

-Hudson is worth ~2 wins.
-Manny is worth 3 wins as a DH, and he’d have to hit his 90th percentile to repeat last season.
-Bradley is worth 3 wins, if he can post a .400 wOBA and play 80% of the time
-Teixeria is worth about five wins
-Baldelli is an interesting gamble if he can beat his 50th percentile
-Orlando Cabrera is worth 2-3 wins

I dunno. There’s no obvious solution in the mainstream free agent pile that can help this team this year and not cripple us in the LT. You’d have to get a favorable deal with Bradley or Cabrera, or have a good explanation as to why Hudson’s UZR are BS.

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 5:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Basically if we want to have a good chance at winning

I think we need to fix second or short and have Wlad go away / flip out, hit his ESPN projection and be worth 2-3 wins

by JI on Dec 22, 2008 6:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Which could happen, I suppose...

…but what are the odds, really?

Right now, my optimism lies in the fact that it appears we have a GM that knows how to build a solid roster from the ground up. I can put up with some mediocre seasons as long as there are moves being made that improve the future.

You're trying to kidnap what I've rightfully stolen.

by Sentinel on Dec 22, 2008 6:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs