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Community Projection: Jose Vidro

The ninth in a non-alphabetical and irregularly updated series of review pieces for each(?) of the players we predicted last spring.

LL/USSM Community: .280/.355/.357
Actual Line: .234/.274/.338

If 2008 was the complete opposite of 2007, then Jose Vidro was the poster boy. After benefiting from a run of good luck two seasons ago that gave him the superficial appearance of being decent, last year Vidro's regression arrow overcorrected itself, and in so doing brought its host body back to Earth with a resounding thud, or thwock, or some other funny noise. Vidro came to the plate 308 times last summer, and among the 281 players with at least 300 PAs, his BA ranked 254th, his OBP ranked 278th, his SLG ranked 237th, and his wOBA* ranked 266th. He was 13 runs below average at the plate while logging only a half season of work. He did this as the team's designated hitter. If somebody were to ask you to explain what went wrong with the Mariners last year in 50 words or less, there are countless different directions you could go with your answer, but the easiest and most telling response would be pointing out that our DHs as a unit were out-hit by Paul Bako.

As we watched Vidro's long and successful career as an everyday player come to a close, there was no last gasp. There was no grand finale. There was only a whimper. Vidro's average never rose above .239, and only twice did he record extra-base hits in consecutive games. And as if his numbers weren't already embarrassing enough, on 13 occasions he was slotted in to bat cleanup, at which point even more attention was paid to his lousy performance. By the time the break came around, it had become apparent to everyone that Vidro was counting numbered days. It wasn't a matter of if he'd be cut; it was a matter of when, and how quickly.

The day finally came in early August. God only knows what Vidro's been doing since he got his release, but he sure as hell hasn't been playing any baseball. Two years ago, Bill Bavasi traded for a bat to help make the Mariners competitive, and today that bat can't find any work. The way the whole Vidro saga played out speaks so many volumes about our old leadership that someone ought to build a memorial library.

For whatever it's worth, Vidro wasn't as bad last year as his raw batting line would suggest. His .245 BABIP in no way did justice to his line drive rate, which remained the same as it was in 2007, and a few more grounders found gloves than one would ordinarily expect. If you apply a little healthy regression, Vidro's line jumps from .234/.274/.338 up to .269/.307/.373, which - well it's a lot better anyway. But here's the problem: not only is that still totally awful, but we also never should've had to watch him struggle that often in 2008 in the first place. Applying the same regression process to Vidro's 2007 spits out a .277/.349/.343 performance, which is down quite a bit from his raw .775 OPS. And that's a much better reflection of Jose Vidro's true talent. Anybody could've seen that Vidro was set for a major statistical decline, and a smarter GM might've braced himself by finding another bat and putting Vidro on the bench, but Bavasi kept on going with his blissful ignorance until his ignorance was no longer nearly as blissful. I know it's hard to reduce the role of someone coming off a .314 season, but when it comes to flukes, you have to be proactive. When Vidro's luck didn't return for a second helping, the Mariner offense was doomed.

At this point, with his regular career dead and buried, all Vidro has left to look forward to are a few years spent scrounging for bench gigs and NRIs. The end is seldom flattering. Meanwhile, we look to close a shameful chapter in Mariners history, a three-year period during which the only competent DH the organization had was assigned to play left field. Carl Everett was a bust, the Ben Broussard/Eduardo Perez platoon was a bust, and Jose Vidro was a bust. And while Vidro chose a strange path to follow, at the end of his time in Seattle, he'd amassed a batting line of .285/.344/.374 over 232 games, which you may recognize as being almost exactly what we expected him to do. Jose Vidro was not a surprise in 2007,  nor was he a disappointment in 2008. Jose Vidro was what we thought he'd be, and while his numbers bounced around in every direction, his underlying skillset remained the same, and it wasn't a skillset built to DH. It was hardly a skillset at all.

Good riddance to you, Jose, and to everything you signified. Our disappointment with the trade was never about Chris Snelling or Emiliano Fruto; it was about you, and how you weren't in any way equipped to do the job you were given. And while we hated the deal at the time, it is only now that we are being run by a competent front office that we can truly appreciate just how stupid of an acquisition you really were. Turns out old, broken-down middle infielders don't make the best DHs after all. Who knew? It's good to learn lessons.

I can't believe we survived this.

Star-divide

Vidroself_medium

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I'll miss his numerous rally-killing double plays.

(Not really)

Every day I hear about Seattle sports' failures. Every night I fall asleep to the sound of my own tears.

by Benne on Dec 21, 2008 10:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I was going to go with a dollar per win comment

but the negative win value made my brain asplode

by JI on Dec 21, 2008 10:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Man...I really don't get how we made it through that front office and still remain Mariner fans sometimes.

It’s amazing, and amazingly stupid of all of us to have stuck with this team so long.

Luckily we get to bow our heads in honor of the great Z now.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Dec 21, 2008 10:58 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of the DH, from Rotoworld:
Manager Don Wakamatsu said Sunday that Jeff Clement and Kenji Johjima will likely be in the lineup together often this season, with Clement starting at designated hitter.
That would require the Mariners to carry a third catcher, and Wakamatsu mentioned the possibility of either re-signing Jamie Burke or handing the job to Rob Johnson. “A lot of it is going to be determined by how well Jeff swings the bat if he’s going to be the DH,” Wakamatsu said. “Another thing we have to know is how much we can depend on Jeff defensively. Can he be a solid catcher? Can he throw well enough to play regularly? If he can, great. If not, then a third catcher becomes a little more likely for us.”

by Goose on Dec 22, 2008 6:39 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Sounds like it is more than likely going to be Johnson, according to the PI.
Johnson likely will make the Seattle roster this season as the third catcher, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports.

Jeff Clement will DH when not catching with Kenji Johjima moving behind the plate. “We could go without a third catcher, yes,” manager Don Wakamatsu said. “But would we be comfortable in that situation? No.” That means Johnson likely gets the call.

by r0ry on Dec 22, 2008 12:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No, that's just John Hickey

For whatever reasons, he’s completely unable to separate reality from his perceptions. For the last few years, he’s relentlessly pushed Cesar Jimenez and Rob Johnson as quality young players deserving of a full time job. For whatever reason, those two are his guys.

by davidcameron on Dec 22, 2008 12:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If so, that is such a waste

Rob Johnson is almost a valuable prospect. Players like Rene Rivera deserve to be 3rd string catchers.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 22, 2008 1:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"I can't believe we survived this."

I’m The Typical Idiot Fan, and I’m a Bavasi survivor.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 22, 2008 6:56 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Nitpick
His .245 BABIP in no way did justice to his line drive rate, which remained the same as it was in 2007,

Not being a pitcher, low BABIP is not necessarily a reflection of bad lick for Jose. Maybe he hit 20% line drives, but he also hit 50% GB, and I don’t expect he did very well on those. Ditto for his FB (13% IFF!). I don’t mean to make a big deal out of this, but he’s not the victim of exceptionally bad luck. He’s the victim of being exceptionally not good enough for the majors any more.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 22, 2008 8:21 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I should expand on this

same thing we looked at with Ichiro:

VIDRO, CAREER

GB: .230 BABIP
FB: .087
LD: .769

VIDRO, 2008

GB: .167
FB: .118
LD: .660

Even allowing for the fact that Vidro won’t beat out as many grounders as he used to, that’s still not a fair shake.

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 9:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not really worth pursuing

but what happens to his slash line when you only regress his LD BABIP? Can’t be very much.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 22, 2008 9:52 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

OK maybe

but you have to concede that the biggest part of it is just not being any good any more. No power, no speed, and beating the ball in to the ground isn’t going to make for a good BABIP. And while it seems like he fell off that cliff rather suddenly, we’ve seen it happen before (or simultaneously).

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 22, 2008 9:47 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

it was a combination of bad luck and bad talent.

by Jeff on Dec 22, 2008 9:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nope

The biggest part of it is luck, but some of the low BABIP can be attributed to beating the ball into the ground.

by Graham on Dec 22, 2008 9:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and the IFF

and the weak flies to the outfield. But especially the IFF.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 22, 2008 9:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, his FB BABIP was abnormally high

The reason I like attributing this to luck more than talent decline is that 2007 makes ~0 sense otherwise

by Graham on Dec 22, 2008 10:17 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not an either/or.

He was the victim of both.

by Matthew on Dec 22, 2008 10:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Vidro's GB% was right at his career average last year. And he never was fast.

In fact, he hit more balls on the ground in 2007 than in 2008. The IFF% is obviously high, but it’s nowhere near enough to explain a guy losing ~160 points of OPS in one year.

He was lucky as hell in 2007, and the opposite was true in 2008. He sucks, but he’s not a .234/.274/.338 hitter.

by Teej on Dec 22, 2008 10:23 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't really blame Vidro for sucking because thats just what he does

He was basically put in a no win situation by Bavasi, who expected Vidro to bat like his peak seasons. I actually felt pitty for him last season. Trying to be an everyday player when he was best suited to be on the bench and get a couple at bats a week at most.

by Scrupio on Dec 22, 2008 9:31 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I liked Vidro

In Triple Play ’99, but good god what a difference 10 years can make.

Yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.

by JordanB on Dec 22, 2008 9:38 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Fotunately, Jose has found some gainful employment!

No Bill, the rotting corpse of a broken down middle infielder is not the makings of a good DH.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game."
-Rickey

by Big Jared on Dec 22, 2008 11:16 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Is that in Ballard?

I think I’ve eaten there.

Yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.

by JordanB on Dec 22, 2008 11:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This was almost too mean.

I agreed with pretty much every substantive word of it, but still…I feel like we’re urinating on Jose Vidro’s decomposing corpse or something. Damn.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Dec 22, 2008 2:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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