Baseball News!
Well at least a little bit of it
Bad news, fans of Daniel Cabrera. It looks like he'll be headed to Washington D.C. to start for the Nats. No dollar amount yet, but I like this signing and methinks he'll fit right in.
In other news:
Andy Pettitte wants to go back to the Yankees and they want him for their rotation.
Hmm. So their rotation will be
1. Sabathia
2. Burnett
3. Wang
4. Pettitte
5. Chamberlain/Hughes/Kennedy/???
Pettitte's had a tRA+ of around 107 for the last three years, so as long as this isn't a long contract (and I have a feeling it'll just be a one year contract) I think this is a good idea for the Yankees. As long as nobody gets hurt (I'm looking at you, AJ), this could be the most dangerous rotation in baseball.
In summation, the Yankees added an asset to their rotation while the Nationals added a question mark.
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71 comments
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Former M's prospect Travis Blackley signed a one year deal with the DBacks.
by Goose on
Dec 20, 2008 5:33 PM PST
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Major league deal? He pulled that off?
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on
Dec 20, 2008 5:46 PM PST
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Split contract.
Recently, the Diamondbacks say he has been working in the 85-88 mph range. But a club scout saw him this winter in Mexico and he clocked him between 90-95 mph.
"He’s always had good feel," General Manager Josh Byrnes said. "At his height as a prospect, he was less about velocity than variety. Through the past two years, our scouts have liked his feel, his change-up, his ability to manage the game."
The deal is a split contract, meaning he’ll get the major league minimum of $400,000 if he’s in the big leagues and $100,000 if he’s in the minors.
Blackley apparently demanded a major league deal, which suggests there were other teams out there offering guaranteed contracts.
*
For now, the Diamondbacks bullpen has four locks: Chad Qualls, Tony Pena, Jon Rauch and Scott Schoeneweis.
Blackley is out of minor league options. He joins right-hander Juan Gutierrez, who has pitched very well in winter ball after a terrible regular season, as out-of-options pitchers who could be in the mix for one of the three remaining bullpen spots.
by Goose on
Dec 20, 2008 6:54 PM PST
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Travis Blackley is still alive?
Every day I hear about Seattle sports' failures. Every night I fall asleep to the sound of my own tears.
by Benne on
Dec 20, 2008 8:12 PM PST
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Should I be patting the Yankees on the back or something?
I would hope after spending 250 million on pitchers contracts in one offseason (including the 10 Pettite will get), that you would be able to field the best rotation
by DarkLou on
Dec 20, 2008 6:55 PM PST
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A thought and a find
Why do we compare a player against the average positional defense for one year? Shouldn’t we use a multi-year average? If we have a crop of great CF defenders one year, all those CF look worse than they should. How stable is the quality of defense in the league? I’m guessing during the offensive peak (cream/clear era) I’m guessing defense slipped as players bulked up and became a little slower. That would mean it would be easier to look good in that era. I don’t know how hard this would be or how you do this but I think it would make the stats much stronger.
Also, I was looking through tango’s blog, MGL said that the park factor for Safeco UZR defense was about 1.03 to 1.04 which means its easier to play than the average park.
by Edgar for Pres on
Dec 21, 2008 12:19 PM PST
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Just another reason why nobody should trust UZR.
by Sam Regens on
Dec 23, 2008 8:01 AM PST
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I don't think its a huge problem
Probably only a few runs. Does anybody even know though?
by Edgar for Pres on
Dec 23, 2008 11:40 AM PST
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Is it possible to use a multi-year defensive average?
Nobody does that right?
by Edgar for Pres on
Dec 23, 2008 2:01 PM PST
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UZR's defensive park factor is not a reason not to trust it
In fact, pitchers’ parks should by definition be easier to play defence in.
by Graham on
Dec 23, 2008 2:07 PM PST
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I totally agree about park factors. I just brought up the park factor for the OF because I thought it was cool
I was really interested for example in why we compare Jose Lopez’s defense to the average defense of 2B in 2008. Why don’t we compare Lopez’s defense to the defense of all 2B for the last 20 years.
Maybe this is already done in some metrics.
by Edgar for Pres on
Dec 23, 2008 4:40 PM PST
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It's official, no Tex for the Angels says Rotoworld
The Angels confirmed Sunday that they have pulled out of the bidding for free agent Mark Teixeira’s services.
by Goose on
Dec 21, 2008 4:51 PM PST
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The Angels look to be a not very good on paper right now
by JI on
Dec 21, 2008 5:13 PM PST
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A pretty okay rotation, questionable bullpen, and an offense that's full of players that are either aging or overhyped?
You’re totally right. 2009 might just be the year the Angels lose their hold of the ALW.
by katal on
Dec 21, 2008 5:36 PM PST
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And what happens to that lineup when Vlad inevitably goes on the DL?
by Scrupio on
Dec 21, 2008 5:38 PM PST
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Vlad isn't that good anymore anyway
His defense and health are to the point where he isn’t even worth 3 wins.
by JI on
Dec 21, 2008 5:49 PM PST
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That may be true but he's still the most feared batter in that lineup
He should have been a full time DH for awhile now due to those health concerns. His desire to play the field is hurting them. Kind of similar to Griffey except Vlad can still use the bat.
by Scrupio on
Dec 21, 2008 8:35 PM PST
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Their defense is bad too
…which is why I wanted a bit more of a savvy “win-now” push in regards to fixing 2B, SS, and 1B/DH. If we get a bit lucky and stay healthy potentially we’d be ad good as anyone.
by JI on
Dec 21, 2008 5:46 PM PST
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If the Nats sign him do the Angels get their draft picks (Strasburg)?
by zeeehjee on
Dec 21, 2008 7:18 PM PST
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No draft picks?
…or just not the Nats #1 pick? I thought teams always gave up picks for players offered arbitration.
by short on
Dec 21, 2008 10:45 PM PST
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They would recieve Washington's 2nd round pick, the first of that round
which would be much, much worse than receiving the 28th pick as the Mariners are slated to
by seattlebruin on
Dec 22, 2008 12:19 AM PST
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Eh
The Angels have been pulling wins out of their asses at will this past half-decade. Call it luck, call it moxy….I’m still going to be optimistic. 2009 could be the year it finally catches up to them (in terms of not winning around 95+ games, that is), but until it happens, I’m going to hold out hope. It worked out great for the past half-decade, why not another year? If this were any other team, I’d be worried. With the Angels, you can almost just expect them to win games, despite not being as good statistically as their record would indicate.
The Angels still aren’t done making moves. I’d like to see them sign Bradley, trade for Joey Votto (excellent suggestion, Gammons) and maybe sign Derek Lowe. I mean, they could pull it off. They could just use the $ for Tex to sign Lowe and Bradley. They also have the resources to pull off a Votto trade.
by baseballfan2 on
Dec 22, 2008 1:22 AM PST
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Cincinnati would have to get a lot more than just Dye for that trade to work.
Votto is by far the best player in that trade, in terms of age, production, salary, and team control. It just doesn’t make sense. Bradley and Lowe are a lot more feasible though. Although Bradley is poor defensively and should be a DH
by Scrupio on
Dec 22, 2008 1:32 AM PST
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Bradley
I’m looking at the numbers and he’s excellent defensively. I hope the Angels don’t pass on him because of his reputation. God forbid if they sign someone like Abreu.
Maybe the Angels can get Votto for something like Adenhart, Aybar and Conger. I know, I know…wishful thinking, never going to happen, but dumber trades have happened before. I’m hoping Reagins can pull a rabbit out of the hat.
by baseballfan2 on
Dec 22, 2008 1:53 AM PST
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Small Sample Size
Plus he’s far too brittle at this point to play in the field regularly.
by Mariner John on
Dec 22, 2008 2:55 AM PST
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"If this were any other team, I’d be worried. With the Angels, you can almost just expect them to win games, despite not being as good statistically as their record would indicate."
Nope.
by acblue on
Dec 22, 2008 1:52 AM PST
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Well
What do you call this past half-decade, then? They’re not nearly as good statistically as their W/L record would suggest. They just find a way to win games. And they don’t just win games, they win a lot of games.
by baseballfan2 on
Dec 22, 2008 1:59 AM PST
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If you want to believe in something as grossly unquantifiable as "they just win"
Go right ahead. It’s incredibly illogical, though.
by DKCecil on
Dec 22, 2008 2:07 AM PST
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I think that's part of his point.
The Angels winning goes against everything we know. Isn’t really an explanation for it either.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on
Dec 22, 2008 7:01 AM PST
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There is, it's called variance, or luck if you prefer.
by Matthew on
Dec 22, 2008 9:43 AM PST
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Yeah, I posted that before reading the rest of the thread.
I must learn to not do that.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on
Dec 22, 2008 11:40 PM PST
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I don't believe that
I know they’re not nearly as good as their W/L record would suggest. But 5 years of pulling it off. Why not 6? The fact that they pulled it off for five consective years give me hope that they could pull it off for another year. Keep in mind that the Angels win a ton of games. They’re right up there with the Yankees for most wins since 2004. If they eventually regress to the mean, so be it. But you can’t deny the fact that they just find ways to win games.
I’m not foolish enough to think that they’re regression-proof, though. Because they’re not. But false hope is better than no hope at all, right? I know their current roster isn’t good. If the Angels win around 78-80 games next season (with this current roster), it wouldn’t surprise me one bit. I’m just trying to be optimistic here.
Thankfully, there are some nice players remaining. I hope Reagins makes the right choices. Bradley+Lowe+Votto would make an excellent offseason.
by baseballfan2 on
Dec 22, 2008 2:19 AM PST
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They haven't been lucky for five consecutive years.
Just by Q/Ding it and looking at their pythag vs real for this decade(I can’t find past 3rd order standings):
2007:94-68(90-72 pythag)
2006:89-72(85-77)
2005:95-67(93-69)
2004:92-70(91-71)
2003:77-85(80-82)
2002:99-63(101-61)
2001:75-87(77-85)
So starting from 01 you got -2,-2,-3,1,2,4,4. They were a total 621-521(617-517)+4. Which is well within standard deviation. In 2008 they went 100-62(88-74) +12. Big big difference.
by Goose on
Dec 22, 2008 5:47 AM PST
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But according to this (+ 2008), they HAVE been lucky for 5 consecutive years.
That’s a cool + 12 in 2008.
I hate them, but the cold comfort of pointing out how they fared in 3rd order standings is even less satisfying now than it was in 2005.
by marc w on
Dec 22, 2008 10:25 PM PST
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Ever consider the Angels kept on winning because the Mariners, Athletics, and Rangers got worse during the same period?
Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber
by Wilder. on
Dec 22, 2008 2:27 PM PST
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NO NO NO IT'S ALL MAGIC PIXIE DUST AND GRIT
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on
Dec 22, 2008 2:49 PM PST
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But
They weren’t as good as their pythag. That’s what I meant. The Angels always seem to get that one big hit when it matters the most. Or that one final pitch in that crucial moment when it matters the most. They always seem to get out of trouble and get that one big hit. Trust me, I would know. I watch them. They magically transform into different hitters/pitchers in crucial moments of the game. That’s how they win a ton of games. They come through in the “clutch”.
I hope to God that continues. If not, we’re in trouble.
by baseballfan2 on
Dec 22, 2008 6:20 AM PST
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First off, dude use the reply button.
Second, what? If they weren’t as good as their pythag, that would mean they were unlucky. And for the rest of that….no. Just…no.
by Goose on
Dec 22, 2008 6:29 AM PST
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Check this out
by baseballfan2 on
Dec 22, 2008 6:32 AM PST
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This is an interesting article.
but really it doesn’t mean a whole lot. Dave even says as much in his conclusion (“This probably doesn’t mean anything, and I certainly wouldn’t advise betting on the Angels to be among the league leaders in clutch hitting again next year.”)
Clutch hitting is something that is difficult to prove. Clutch pitching may exist because the pitcher has control over the pitch he throws. But hitters don’t have control over where the ball goes after they hit it. More importantly, hitting is reactionary. This alone makes clutch hitting most likely untrue.
So yeah, you’re right. The Angels have gotten lucky the past few years as far as getting clutch hits. But in terms of Pythag, they’re well within the standard deviation. So they haven’t really gotten lucky in terms of Pythag. So somewhere they balancing out their performance in high-leverage at bats by getting unlucky (or sucking) somewhere else.
by brayden04 on
Dec 22, 2008 7:05 AM PST
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I like the idea of the Angels relying on this instead of relying on talent
by Jeff on
Dec 22, 2008 9:48 AM PST
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The Angels always seem to get that one big hit when it matters the most. Or that one final pitch in that crucial moment when it matters the most.
You could have said the same thing about the mariners in the mid-90s
by JI on
Dec 22, 2008 9:57 AM PST
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Too soon into my fanhood
I wanted heartbreak first.
by Robert on
Dec 22, 2008 12:01 PM PST
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I'm glad I didn't know sabermetrics in 1997
or else I would have been throwing a fit all season.
by katal on
Dec 22, 2008 12:03 PM PST
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By the way, sorry
I’m kind of new to these blogs. Forgive me for not using the reply button correctly.
by baseballfan2 on
Dec 22, 2008 6:42 AM PST
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No problem, we're just picky about it
because it makes reading these threads a lot easier. It’s an easy habit to get into.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on
Dec 22, 2008 7:56 AM PST
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