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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

Shoring up the middle infield

So I just saw on Rotoworld that bobby Crosby's been placed on waivers by the A's, meaning that him and his 1yr 5 million dollar contract are up for grabs. He's not the MVP Gammons used to see in him anymore, but he's a useful player for a team like Seattle and I think it'd be worth picking him up.

His bat of course is a big concern, but even if it remains the same shitty bat it's been for the last several years, his wOBA is the same as Yuni's. Unlike Yuni, however,  there's some potential for growth there as he used to have some genuine power before the surgeries and can take a few walks. His low BA from the last couple of years was largely the result of him swinging at more out of zone pitches and consequently making more bad contact (reflected by a lower LD rate and slightly lower walk rate). I'm not sure why he's been doing it - maybe he's pushing or whatever they call it when they try too hard - but it's out of line with his career stats and seems fixable.

But of course the main reason to pick him up would be his defense. Based on UZR, he's a 0< x <+10 SS over his career, and PMR consistently places him in the top 50% of shortstops, in the neighborhood of guys like JJ Hardy, Yunel Escobar, and Gold Glover(!) Jimmy Rollins. So with the leather alone he'll be adding something like a win to the team total, with potentially more coming from his bat if he can get back on track a bit.

To recap, picking up Crosby means a little money, above average defense, the same or better offensive production, plus whatever return could be got from shipping Yuni to a team that uses the same scouts Raul Ibanez talks to about his defense. I like it.

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Oh and of course this is inspired by Waka's suggestion of moving Lopez to first

which.. I dunno. This seems like a much better way to do it. Maybe we can send Yuni to SD for Blanks. It’s not like he’s about to displace Gonzalez, and if they want a AAA starter/ML reliever to sweeten the deal, fine. We’ve got more than enough of those.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 19, 2008 11:43 AM PST reply actions  

True

But even if he plays ~60% of games as he has been the last couple of years and the rest is filled by Reegie or whoever, it’s a net gain and a considerable one.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 19, 2008 11:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Hmm?

If you put Crosby as a 1.5 WAR player and Yuni as a 1 WAR player, Crosby playing 60% of the games and then handing off to a 0 WAR guy is only worth 0.9 wins.

And counting on him to play that much seems optimistic

by Graham MacAree on Dec 19, 2008 11:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I hate his injury history

For better or worse, Yuni’s been a very durable player over the years. Dumping him for the fragile Crosby, who may or may not be a big WAR upgrade, seems like a lateral move at best.

Every day I hear about Seattle sports' failures. Every night I fall asleep to the sound of my own tears.

by Benne on Dec 20, 2008 8:04 PM PST up reply actions  

0 to +10 is probably generous.

And that would be contingent on him actually playing 150 games.

And no, their wOBAs are not the same, Yuni’s bat has been consistently better the past 3 seasons. Yuni’s 5-10 runs better assuming equal playing time.

by Matthew on Dec 19, 2008 11:55 AM PST reply actions  

And Crosby's defense is probably 10 runs better than Yuni's given equal playing time.

You’re taking on 5M for a full-season improvement of maybe a half-win.

This is exactly what Dave talked about earlier re: Kennedy.

by Matthew on Dec 19, 2008 11:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Crosby's offensive ceiling is much higher than Yuni's

and he’s young enough that I think it’s still possible for him to come near it despite the past injuries. And he played plenty last year.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 19, 2008 12:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Has no one come back from injuries to hit like they once did?

I’m not talking about what he’s most likely to do, but his ceiling. You can’t really thing he’s destined for a .300 wOBA for life.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 19, 2008 12:09 PM PST up reply actions  

His odds of reaching his ceiling are incredibly slim. It's not worth it.

And betting on nearly 30-year-old oft-injured middle infielders to regain power in their bats is a bad bet.

by Matthew on Dec 19, 2008 12:12 PM PST up reply actions  

OK, so he was injured for much of a three year stretch,

but he was healthy last year, played in 144 games and did OK. Being 29, would you not say he has a good chance of recovering from whatever it was that plagued him those years? I mean, I know players generally begin to decline at 30 or so, but… it’s not like life is over.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 19, 2008 12:05 PM PST reply actions  

slightly worse at the plate

much better with the glove. But we’re splitting hairs. The reason I’m proposing this is that I think whatever Yuni can bring back as a trade chip will be worth more to the organization than Betancourt himself. And here you have a guy who for nothing more than a little cash in a lost year will give you similar value with the benefit of making the pitchers look better.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 19, 2008 12:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Yuni was almost almost a win better at the plate, though (by bRAA)

This was an instance where Crosby’s health might have actually hurt his value.

by Teej on Dec 19, 2008 12:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Yuni's career-low wOBA in 2008 was higher than anything Crosby has put up in three years.

You’d have to pretty much have to assume that Crosby’s going to play enough for his better defense to make it worth bringing him in. I’m scared of that bet.

by Teej on Dec 19, 2008 12:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Well fuck it

maybe it’s not such a good idea after all. Seems to me like Betancourt is still worth something and I’d rather have that something and Crosby as a stop gap, who I still think can deliver the same value as Betancourt at a minimum even with reduced playing time. I just don’t see Yuni improving is all.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 19, 2008 12:13 PM PST reply actions  

Interesting.

PMR thinks he was a good SS in 2008, UZR thinks he was ~average and Dewan’s +/- thinks he sucked. Almost a two-win discrepancy between PMR and +/-.

Again, it’s only one year, but that’s not encouraging. Raul was right!

by Teej on Dec 19, 2008 12:39 PM PST reply actions  

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