Raul Ibanez Is Absolutely Correct
Says Raul on the unflattering statistical evaluation of his defense:
"And the way they come up with the defensive measurements, or ratings, is flawed. It's as flawed as the Gold Gloves. One of the reasons is, they don't consider things like ballpark factors, defensive positioning or allignement[sic] for certain hitters.''
...
It's not just the location of batted balls that has to be judged, Ibanez said, but also the speed and angle at which they are hit.
So, okay, the good statistics do take park factors into account, but Raul's spot on with the rest. We don't have positioning information. We don't have alignment information. We don't have batted ball angle information. And while we can group batted balls by speed (soft, medium, hard, etc), we don't have exact numbers, which means we have to rely on observational subjectivity. These are all real and legitimate problems with advanced defensive analysis, and they cause there to be a certain degree of error in the numerical results. The stats aren't as flawed as the Gold Glove voting process, but they are flawed nevertheless.
Here's the thing, though - so what? We know that the stats are flawed. We've always known that. That's why, for example, we don't say that a guy is a +5 defender - we say that he's a 0 < x < +10 defender. Because there's error in the result. But that doesn't invalidate the whole system. The same stuff goes for every player in baseball, and unless Raul thinks that the defensive metrics are rather uniquely conspiring against him in an effort to make him look worse than he really is, pointing out their sundry shortcomings doesn't make for much of a defense. Over a sample size of two or three years, things tend to even out. And over a sample size of the last two or three years, Raul Ibanez has been a statistically lousy defender.
Raul comes off sounding kind of like a guy who Googled "why UZR bad" and repeated what he found without really thinking about how it applied to him. What is it that he wants us to think? That he positions himself poorly? That he faced an inordinate amount of line drives that were classified as more catchable balls? The former is hardly a helpful argument, and the latter...it's possible, but it's unlikely that any scoring error would go in one direction only. A hard-hit ball should be mistakenly scored as a medium-hit ball just as often as a medium-hit ball should be mistakenly scored as a hard-hit ball. So those should cancel each other out.
Look, Raul Ibanez has every right to defend himself against his critics, and I respect him for providing a better defense than the recycled nonsense you usually get in situations like this. It's not every day you hear a baseball player go into moderate detail in discussing the problems with modern analysis. But at the same time, the evidence is what it is, and while UZR and PMR and +/- and all that stuff may not provide proof in one direction or another, they're good at what they measure, and they very strongly suggest that Raul Ibanez is simply not a good defensive player. And that means a lot more than Raul would like to think it does.
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39 comments
Comments
I can't believes he understands it that well to begin with.
by JI on Dec 19, 2008 12:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
He has a friend in Kansas City who's into sabermetrics
Gotta get it from somewhere.
by ThundaPC on Dec 19, 2008 2:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't agree more
His suggestion that scorekeepers are prejudiced against him because they already believe him to be a bad defender is interesting, but probably doesn’t hold any water.
by johnbai on Dec 19, 2008 2:21 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Isn't positioning accounted for?
Better positioning gets helps a player make more plays, and vice versa. The metrics generally focus on plays relative to one’s defensive zone, not plays relative to the players starting point on each given play, right?
by david h on Dec 19, 2008 7:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think the idea is that bad positioning looks like bad range in the numbers
so it’s easy to confuse one for the other. The problem, though, is that a lot of people think you ought to include positioning as part of someone’s skillset, so it doesn’t matter if he has bad positioning or bad range – the end result is that he’s bad.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2008 7:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess the distinction is which aspect can change
The latter point you make is what I was getting at. But coaches or scouting (of the visual or statistical kind) can fix defensive alignment, not range.
The way Raul is trying to use positioning, though, doesn’t work. He seems to be claiming that he makes up in positioning what he may lack in range. If true, the metrics would bear that out.
by david h on Dec 19, 2008 8:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's another good point
if Raul brought up positioning to imply that his is excellent, that would be in the numbers. That would actually make him look awesome, not bad.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2008 9:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The visual evidence on this site alone is compelling.
Just watching his defense will speak volumes without this Kansas City based hocus pocus y’all are talking bout.
I will say he could deliver at bat and had good clubhouse maturity in addition to being focused and hard working.
He’s just an aging man in denial. It’s tough when you start waking up without a morning wood. You know you still have it in you, but something is not the same….
Seasons Greetings
by Tony S on Dec 19, 2008 8:10 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hey, it's not entirely possible that there could be massive errors with one specific player
After all, there are lots and lots of players to be sampled, so it’s not inconceivable that somehow every metric under the sun is underrating Raul.
However, for his argument to hold any water he’d have to look like he knows what he’s doing in the field.

I’m sure that looks better when you’re not watching it on TV, right?
by Graham on Dec 19, 2008 8:13 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I was at that game and it was far worse to see in person.
You could tell he was not going to be close at all.
by Sec 108 on Dec 19, 2008 9:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In Raul's "defense"
His positioning was OK if the ball bounced off the angled wall, which it missed by less than a foot. If he had played the ball to miss the angled wall and it had hit the wall, he would have looked even more foolish.
by mymrbig on Dec 19, 2008 9:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Look where he is in relation to the corner.
He was not expecting it to hit the wall or else he would have been further away from the wall and moving towards the infield.
by Sec 108 on Dec 19, 2008 9:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OK
I only said his positioning was OK, not good. That said, you are right. Upon further reflection, his positioning and angle were pretty terrible either way. If the ball hit the wall, he had way too much momentum going toward the line.
by mymrbig on Dec 19, 2008 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The interesting thing to me is
as someone pointed out, Raul never actually goes so far as to call himself a good defender – he just explains why he thinks defensive metrics are bad.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Dec 19, 2008 8:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting he talks about defensive positioning
Over on MarinerCentral a Japanese commentator, DrNaka, pointed out during the Hargrove years that the M’s tended to position players per the situation regardless of the hitter. For instance, if there were 2 outs and a runner on 1st the outfield would be in a “no doubles” defense even if a slap hitter was up there at the plate. I don’t know if that changed after Hargrove was fired. U.S. TV doesn’t show enough panning shots before the pitch.
Of course, no amount of defensive position can explain away the lovable lawndart.
by EA on Dec 19, 2008 8:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
By the way
kudos to Geoff for bringing this up.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2008 9:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I was surprised to read that Baker actually
brought up the idea that “various metrics say you suck at defense” directly to Raul.
Raul’s relatively classy, but unconvincing response, was not surprising.
by johnbai on Dec 19, 2008 12:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If I was Raul....
I would have anwered with a " I have 30mil and you don’t. So go F yourself"
by coasty141 on Dec 19, 2008 9:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Raul's Snuff Films now archived to a single page.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game."
-Rickey
by Big Jared on Dec 19, 2008 9:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
So you got linked to by Rob Neyer, Jeff.
Awesome.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3781606&name=Neyer_Rob
the other angels fan
by Eyebrows on Dec 19, 2008 10:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
The comments in that thread amused me so much
by Graham on Dec 19, 2008 11:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cue the Ibanez .gifs to shut those Phillies fans up.
Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber
by Wilder. on Dec 19, 2008 12:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I still think Ibanez probably can make a case that he's not one of the worst LF
He’d probably tell you he’s not above average. He might even tell you he’s not average. He probably doesn’t think he is the disaster he is. If he’s closer to -5 than -15 runs then he has a case that we need to get off his back. I think he’s pretty crappy but our metrics may not be accurate enough to disprove this.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 19, 2008 1:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The largest problem I have with the stats...
They don’t take into account who else is in the outfield with you. As someone who played center field for 20 years I realize that alignment can change drastically depending on who I’m sharing the outfield with. If my right fielder has weak range I have to shade towards his side more often than not. This forces my left fielder to shade toward center in order to lessen the left/center gap. These kind of adjustments are not only common, they are standard. An outfielder with high quality outfield partners is more likely to have better stats because he can play his position and doesn’t have to worry about anyone else. I guess that’s where player alignment comes into play in all of it on an every play basis.
by TJSizzle on Dec 19, 2008 6:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
But a shifted LF will get credit for making catches in an area that normal LF's don't frequent
which negates some of the damage done by not coming up with catches that were in a normal LF’s zone, but not in his.
I dunno. I just haven’t seen any convincing evidence that one’s defensive stats are in any way significantly influenced by who he’s playing with. It’s an issue, but I don’t think it’s a major one.
by Jeff on Dec 19, 2008 6:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The LF will make catches out of his area but he will also miss some in his zone
Its probably less than 5 runs of an effect and since OF usually see turnover pretty fast (especially if one of the guys is a bad/old defender). If we look at more than one year the effect is probably neutralized.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 21, 2008 1:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The majority of Raul's time here Ichiro was in RF.
Do you think our CF was shading towards right?
by Sec 108 on Dec 19, 2008 7:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not pro Raul...
I’m not saying that was Raul’s problem. It just is a general problem with the equation.
by TJSizzle on Dec 19, 2008 9:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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