Litmus Test
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 4:18 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
194 comments
If you're like me, and you're frequently pressed for time, a good New Year's resolution is to cut down on the number of stupid conversations you let yourself have during the day. And while I understand that it isn't always easy to tell from the get-go whether or not a conversation will end up stupid, here's a good way to make sure that, at the very least, you never get roped into talking baseball for twenty minutes with someone who sucks.
Guy: So hey, how about those Yankees? What are they spending now, a trillion dollars? LOL! Am I right?
You: What do you think of Raul Ibanez?
Don't worry about the other guy's initial attempt to engage. What he asks doesn't make any difference. The only thing that matters is that he wants to talk about baseball, and as soon as the baseball subject is broached, you should politely but pointedly interject with the Ibanez question, shut up, and await the other guy's response. This is a critical juncture, so be sure to pay attention.
If he responds with:
...something like "pretty good bat but he's old/bad at defense/old and bad at defense," then if you so desire you may proceed. This is an individual from whom you may actually gain a little insight or inspiration. Tracking those sorts of people down is difficult, so cherish this interaction.
If he responds with:
...some mindless combination of great bat/underrated/real pro/good leader/winner*/determined/hard-nosed/classy/etc then, unless his answer is qualified with expressed concerns over Ibanez's age and/or defense, you may be 99% certain that continuing this conversation purchases you a one-way ticket on Retard Airlines to the Isle of Regret. You should leave. Make up an excuse if you have to. You should just be sure to flee the scene. There is likely nothing to be gained from speaking to this person. Leave and save yourself time that, if you're at work, could be better spent enjoying a delicious Nestle hot cocoa.
That said, if you're feeling particularly patient, or you're dissatisfied with jumping ship until you're 100% sure that it's going to sink, then you may choose to stick around to briefly point out Raul Ibanez's downsides just to see how the other guy reacts. The trouble here is that, by speaking, you have made the conversation that much more inextricable, but there does exist a slight chance that the other guy will respond positively, in which case you may be able to teach him to be less wrong. Given the opportunity, it's noble work if you're up to doing it. But I recommend just running away. Probability says that's always the right decision in a situation like this. If you press the issue, and the other guy still disagrees, then the interaction minefield becomes incredibly difficult to navigate.
-----
Avoiding stupid conversations is all about taking the right preventative measures, and by making but a few simple changes the methodology provided herein can be applied to any number of different subjects. Be proactive. Have a better day and be a better you. You'll be glad you did.
* If Raul Ibanez is such a winner, then why is it that since he became a regular player in 2001, five of his teams have finished in last and none of his teams has been to the playoffs?
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self-right⋅eous
[self-rahy-chuhs, self-]
–adjective
confident of one’s own righteousness, esp. when smugly moralistic and intolerant of the opinions and behavior of others.
Origin:
1670–80
Also see “smug”
Insert perverted sports related sexual innuendo
by wwbaker3 on Dec 14, 2008 4:50 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
There's no reason to be tolerant of ignorance if it's willful.
by Matthew on Dec 14, 2008 5:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I gotta agree with Baker here.
I tolerate people with different religious and political views… even if (at first impression) I think their opinion is pretty ignorant.
Because at some level… I recognize that it’s probably not ignorance… just a different approach to understanding. They have different values. Perhaps they trust their heart more than the laws of probability. If that makes them happy… so be it. Happiness is elusive enough in this world. Who am I to argue against someone’s path?
When it comes to baseball… most of the “ignorant” fans that I’ve met believe in processing the sport and its players through the lens attached to their iris instead of the lens of statistical analysis. And if that makes them happy… I don’t begrudge them.
It can be exhausting and frustrating to talk with someone with a different set of values than your own. I believe what Baker was getting at is that dismissing that person as “ignorant” (a very offensive term) is the ultimate in philosophical laziness. And it’s the reason there are so many ad hominem attacks in the world. It’s far easier to condemn another man’s intellect than to have an honest exchange of ideas… especially when that means truly listening to an opinion you disagree with.
by johnbai on Dec 14, 2008 8:06 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
But that's a different situation.
If someone is open-minded, than that person is not willfully ignorant.
by Matthew on Dec 14, 2008 8:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
When we write someone off as stupid
we are the ones being willfully ignorant.
Perhaps this is useful sometimes. And Jeff’s post was funny. But I can see WWBaker’s point.
by johnbai on Dec 14, 2008 8:21 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I really don't get what you or baker are talking about here.
My suspicion is that you are applying this in a far broader scope than originally intended.
And I disagree, writing someone off as stupid (in a baseball-sense, since there’s the ONLY parameter I am talking about here) does not automatically mean you are being willfully ignorant.
by Matthew on Dec 14, 2008 8:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I only meant that
The very act of “writing someone else off as an ignoramus” forces us to be “willfully ignorant” ourselves. For once we’ve written them off, we are no longer open to any ideas or information that person may have. This seems to me to be the very definition of “willfully ignorant”.
by johnbai on Dec 14, 2008 8:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And while I would agree with that on issues like politics or religion or numerous other subjects,
when it comes to baseball talent evaluation however, there are people whose knowledge are subsets of my own. I have nothing to learn from them and if they aren’t open to learning something from me, what would be the point of conversing?
If the subject of discussion is mathematics, am I supposed to be willing and open to listen to someone who never took math above algebra if that person isn’t willing to be open to listening to me? I don’t see the point.
by Matthew on Dec 14, 2008 9:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this artfully-made point
In Bill’s first post, he uses the words “self-righteous” and “smug”… a provocative challenge to Jeff’s post. Bill was probably reacting to a number of quick judgments and cutting remarks made to baseball noobs and traditional fans on LL threads. I was riffing on that theme… but have probably obfuscated rather than elucidated his point.
I think the real point that Bill was making was the same as Gandhi’s: that “the greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated.” Lookout Landing is the nation, and the animals are the posters. Some of us are doomed to extinction because we’re old and doddering: Sec108, Positive Paul and myself for example… and some because they’re like freaky oscillating flashes of brilliant color: Robert, Corco and Coach Owens come to mind. There’s probably nothing about baseball talent evaluation that any of us can teach you. If you want the ignorant masses to read and respect your findings, treat us well anyway.
by johnbai on Dec 14, 2008 9:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Nobody here (that lasts) is closed-minded about baseball.
And to speak to the other part (I think), if you see something that you disagree or are disappointed with in terms of tone or whatever, you would do well to bring it up in an e-mail or some other way. Staying silent about it accomplishes nothing.
I’d like to think that we all strive to be the best internet citizens that we can, but the demands on us with the huge increase in comments with SBN 2.0 and with increased traffic, along with increased demands on all our time from other engagements means that we end up being snippy from time to time.
by Matthew on Dec 14, 2008 10:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We do treat you well.
The only people we don’t treat well are the people who come here and mouth off without listening to anything smarter people have to say.
You guys come to LL on your own volition. You’re all clearly open-minded.
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 10:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The vast majority of the world's population -is- stupid though
by Graham on Dec 14, 2008 8:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Most of the world is nowhere near as enlightened as the Dalai Lama
It’s his tolerance of those less enlightened individuals that makes him both a happy man, and a great man.
by johnbai on Dec 14, 2008 8:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So after the hidden threads I've come to the conclusion that you're taking this to mean more than it does
1) it’s not meant to be taken literally and was written tongue-in-cheek
2) it’s intended to refer to people who spout ignorance off as fact, not to people who choose to enjoy baseball in a different way
3) a conversation in which you neither learn nor teach is a waste of time and therefore worth avoiding
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 10:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There are times when I should have heeded this advice.
by Goose on Dec 14, 2008 4:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
This is why I stopped reading Baker's comment section.
by BrianL on Dec 14, 2008 5:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
I am amazed at the comments on all main stream baseball sites. Honestly, they remind me too much of myself before I read baseball web sites.
by mark sobba on Dec 14, 2008 8:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Me too.
The “official” Mariners webforums are rife with folks who make my skin crawl. And yet I go back for more every day…
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 14, 2008 9:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty much every Non-LL person I know is the second person
I don’t get to listen to intelligent sports conversation in my daily life at all
HA HA HA, your Grandpa's an ASS!- Tourette's Guy (R.I.P)
by tootthekazoo on Dec 14, 2008 4:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
Him: I can’t believe they let Gil Meche/Ben Broussard leave.
You: I don’t know that either them were very valuable, but what about the &%$#ing Soriano trade?
Him: Who?
I feel this pain. I get stuck talking about baseball with people that like the game, try to follow the game and yet do not SEE the game. Bring up something as rudimentary as defense and you’ve lost them. I don’t get it.
You don’t really need fancy sabermetrics to see the results (runs!) of outs not converted by the likes of Raul/Yuni. The same applies to Beltre or Ichiro making a great play leading to an out (runs saved!). These things happen over and over. Yet they just don’t really notice it or the impact on the game it has.
Better yet: Try to tell them Adrian hit better this year than his BA might suggest. “Nope, he’s an overpaid bust!” they reply.
God help you if you try talking pitching with these folks.
"It's reassuring to know that in your life, you can have no more than 32 root canals."
-T. McCarver
by Big Jared on Dec 14, 2008 5:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
You know what's funny to me -
Ever since baseball was first invented, no-hit infielders have been getting regular work because they play good defense. Defense has been an important and obvious issue for more than a hundred years, but as soon as you start trying to put a number to it, people curl up into a ball and feel like their sport is being threatened by robots.
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 5:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've used this tactic...
except I used Willie Bloomquist.
When I heard “He just needs a chance!” I was ejecting faster than a fighter pilot with both engines on fire.
by PLU Tim on Dec 14, 2008 5:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, there are a bunch of different players you can use here
Ibanez is just topical.
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 5:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The people at my work that I've talked baseball with are kinda weird.
It’s like sometimes they get it, and sometimes they don’t. For instance:
Him:Since we’re rebuilding, perhaps we should trade Ichiro. He’s obviously declining.
Me:No he’s not. His underlying skills haven’t changed, he was just unlucky. He’s fine.
Him:Well maybe he should start hitting for more power to offset the declining average.
Me:Wrong.
Him:Wow, did you see that Putz deal?
Me:Yeah. Pretty crazy. M’s got alot of talent back.
Him:Yeah, I like that those two outfielders they got back from the Indians and Mets. Aren’t they supposed to be pretty awesome defensively? Damn our outfield is gonna be awesome next year!
Me:Right.
Me:God I’m pissed Arizona didn’t offer Dunn arbitration.
Him:Yeah. That sucks. The Mariners should sign him because we won’t lose a pick. He’s a good bat who can play multiple positions.
Me:Play multiple positions badly.
Me:What do you think of the Beltre contract?
Him:Kinda sucked the first year. But since then he’s been awesome. Fantastic defense and good power. I hope we extend him for a few more years.
Me:Agreed.
by Goose on Dec 14, 2008 5:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
Do you ACTUALLY talk in real life like many do on LL? One word responses like “wrong”? Sounds patronizing and a great way to quickly become the company asshole.
Insert perverted sports related sexual innuendo
by wwbaker3 on Dec 14, 2008 5:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, the actual responce IIRC was "Actually, that's false...[begin explination]"
And I’m not worried about being the company asshole. The nature of my job automatically makes me that regardless of what I say.
by Goose on Dec 14, 2008 5:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I find this idea that LL is ruder to people than other websites to be absolutely hilarious.
by acblue on Dec 14, 2008 5:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
People say that?
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Dec 14, 2008 6:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Most people I've known/worked with would tend towards what is euphemistically called giving an attitude adjustment.
I’ve also never ridden an elevator to work, or been in a cubicle. I’m used to either ignoring the stupid and replacing a person if necessary, or if the person has a modicum of intelligence trying to share some knowledge.
Formerly dpseadvr.
by Kermit. on Dec 14, 2008 7:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes true.
A Yankees fan I know has approached me on the occasions of both the GM and managerial hire and posed a question to the effect of “So, how do you feel about the Mariners hiring…. some random guy?”
Now granted, I should have said, “who was Joe Torre before he came to New York?” or something similarly snappy, but then I realized that, being in New York, he takes a New Yorker approach to these matters and being dismissive is perhaps in his blood.
Further baseball conversations have revealed him to be fairly knowledgeable, but alas, I have not yet asked him about Jeter. We’ve mostly talked pitching, and what directions both of our teams are headed in…. or at least we were before the Putz trade and the Yankees signing two aces (he suggested that the Steinbrenner Yankees would never admit to being in rebuilding). I haven’t seen him in a while.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Dec 14, 2008 5:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
"purchases you a one-way ticket on Retard Airlines to the Isle of Regret"
I laughed so damn hard the other people in the office demanded to know what was so funny.
They seemed satisfied.
by ningwers on Dec 14, 2008 5:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
By the way, it bears repeating
Some people who don’t know very much can be worth the effort. It’s just that the overwhelming majority of them are not, and I’m all about the odds.
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 5:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
What if they are an attractive member of the opposite sex?
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Dec 14, 2008 6:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With Ms fans right now
I think that there’s been so much frustration for long enough that there are a lot of people who’d like some answers as to why things have gone so horribly awry. I’ve got a friend who was dumbfounded as to why the team collapsed in such spectacular fashion this season, one of those Hollywood-story kind of baseball fans who believed that chemistry and veteranosity was the root cause of winning. By the end of the season, he was really open to any kind of explanation as to what went so wrong in 2008. Showed him the pre-season projections run at LL/USSM and used Jose Vidro’s 2007/2008 LD%/BABIP to explain that there is such a thing as luck and overperformance in the game. Now he’s actively investigating this stuff on his own.
In fact, a lot of people I’ve talked to seem more open to this stuff than they used to be.
by BrianL on Dec 14, 2008 6:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There's a lot of truth to that
It’s an epically huge teachable moment, no question.
by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 14, 2008 8:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Conversation of mine around world series time:
Me: So you think ibanez is coming back?
Him: That would be sick, I love Ibanez!
Me: Well…
Him: He was always one of my favorites.
Me: uhh…
Him: If he doesnt come back, ill be pissed. We might suck even more.
Me: uhhhhhhhhhh…I would like him more if he played at least decent defense
Him: Yeah he was pretty bad in the field I guess. You know, we should have never got Vidro in the first place, and had Ibanez DH.
Me: yeah
Him: Then we should have kept Adam Jones and Sherrill.
Complete turnaround. It can happen.
by Karma Police on Dec 14, 2008 6:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea, I guess if you point them in the right direction they might not be so narrow-minded.
by Fin on Dec 14, 2008 6:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The ones who are receptive can be worth the time but the stubborn ones make you hate yourself for trying
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 6:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the point is
you were being 100% literal when you wrote this and that also you are a penis with a typewriter.
by JI on Dec 14, 2008 6:19 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
My favorite...flipping over to a game a with a few of my friends few years back with...
Me: Hmmm…I wonder who’s pitching.
Sees Gil Meche on the mound
Me: Oh God damnit it’s Gil Meche. Fuck.
Friend #1: Is Gil Meche bad?
Friend #2: I thought Meche was supposed to be good.
Friend #1: Yeah I thought so too.
Me: No, he’s terrible. Watch, he’ll give up a homerun right here.
Next pitch…HR
Me: (Begins laughing uncontrollably)
Both friends: Wow….
Easily my favorite Mariners moment of ineptitude.
by SethGrandpa on Dec 14, 2008 6:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of Meche?
How is he doing with the Royals now? I still can’t believe he was able to get $55 million, but I guess if there is a team dumber than the Mariners used to be, it has to be the Royals.
by Fin on Dec 14, 2008 6:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Meche's contract is actually a good buy for his performance.
He’s making 11MM/yr, and his tRAs his last two years have been 4.20 and 4.06, with FIPs of 4.02 and 3.61.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on Dec 14, 2008 7:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But it wasn't a good idea at the outset of the contract.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on Dec 14, 2008 7:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In other words, Dayton Moore stumbled into a good result with a bad process.
Every day I hear about Seattle sports' failures. Every night I fall asleep to the sound of my own tears.
by Benne on Dec 14, 2008 8:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait... what?!
You’re saying that prediciting that the market would continue to get more expensive for starting pitching was clearly luck? Or that Gil Meche continuing to be a half-decent pitcher was luck? Or that Gil Meche not getting injured was luck? Or what? What exactly was the bad process… And how did luck save him?
by johnbai on Dec 14, 2008 8:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The development of tRA has caused me to reconsider how I felt about the Meche contract
although he’s leaps and bounds better now than he ever was before.
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 10:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But Meche's 2006 tRA would say that contract was a bad idea.
by Matthew on Dec 14, 2008 10:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I still think it was a bad idea
but a 106 tRA+ is better than I gave him credit for.
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 10:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
4.89 tRA* though.
But yeah, less of a bad idea than we thought at the time, but still a bad idea. And given Moore’s track record since, benefit of the doubt goes toward lucky rather than smart.
by Matthew on Dec 14, 2008 10:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good news!
We got rid of Moyer, Meche, Winn and will have many moneys to spend!
Bad news:
We traded for HoRam, signed Silva, and traded for SlamPig.
by JI on Dec 14, 2008 10:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's retrospect-sucking that Moyer, Meche and Winn remained productive.
by Matthew on Dec 14, 2008 10:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I miss Randy Winn
I thought that extension in San Francisco was so stupid…
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 10:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What was going rate then? 3.5 per win?
He got it after that insane second-half with the Giants when they still had him under control for another year. And given his down year in2006, would he have matched 3/24 on the open market?
by Matthew on Dec 14, 2008 11:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Winn's 2006 was hurt by an abnormally low BABIP
I have Winn as a 2.5-3 WAR player at the time of his extension. Seems fair.
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 11:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought he was extended after his bat shit crazy August-September 05
by JI on Dec 14, 2008 11:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops, you're right
I still think it was a fair deal, though.
by Jeff on Dec 14, 2008 11:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, his extension came before 2006, so I don't think that's particularly relevant
since I doubt GMs would have seen through a low BABIP. But I’ll concede that it probably wasn’t a bad move. Still think it was poorly timed though.
by Matthew on Dec 14, 2008 11:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that's not the point
the point is the replacements were so awful.
by JI on Dec 14, 2008 11:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Kind of like Bavasi signing Beltre
He should’ve signed Beltre because he was a young up and coming third basemen with a slick glove and good bat, but he actually signed Beltre for his unrepeatable 2004 year.
by Fin on Dec 15, 2008 2:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmm.
For those reason above is exactly why I left the PI blog, Times etc. in favor of LL.
BOOYA! You got Slurved!
by Slurvey on Dec 14, 2008 6:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'm on the east coast.
Me: What do you think about Raul Ibanez?
Him: Who?? Oh I don’t know, didn’t he play for the Marlins or something?
by DCMariner on Dec 14, 2008 7:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
business cards
Jeff, you need business cards to advertise the site. You tell the person, “I have to go, but you can read all about the Mariners at my site.” The person will be really glad to have met you, and they can come here and get edumacated.
by brent in Korea on Dec 14, 2008 8:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It took years!
But I converted all of my friends to the first type!
Thanks to me, they are all readers of LL/USSM. None of us cried at seeing Raul leave.
by mark sobba on Dec 14, 2008 8:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Who is Raul Ibanez?
In reading the first few posts I’m reminded of Atlas Shrugged. You have the objectivists (SABR) vs the subjectivists (old school, ERA, faith & grit). Especially with the Self Righteous vs Willfully Ignorant comments.
In a sense you can use Raul Ibanez as the corporal incarnation of the idea behind the thought process that stopped the Mariners the past several years. Certainly Raul didn’t "stop" the M’s any more than John Galt stopped the world; but the ideas behind him in left field, as the face, and discussions of him as a good defender with his veteran presence lead to the stoppage.
Not that this is as black & white as the book. (I’ll stop babbling now)
by Kunkoh on Dec 15, 2008 4:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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