Still Not Finished

by Jeff on Dec 13, 2008 10:05 PM PST in Regular News Comment 27 comments

"I've been talking to Jerry a lot," Bruce said Friday at Redsfest. "He should come back. He'd play center, lead off, and we'd win."

Bruce said Hairston is considering Seattle and Philadelphia as well as the Reds.

Hairston's coming off a big bounceback season with the Reds, in which he batted .326 over 300 PAs with reasonable power and versatility and excellent speed. It was exactly the sort of season he needed, as his awful spells in 2006 and 2007 threatened to bring a premature end to his career.

However, as much as last year represented a departure from Hairston's recent past, it was fueled by an unsustainable .361 BABIP and 27.5% LD%. Hitting the ball on a line is great and all, but Hairston's career BABIP is .288, and it's unlikely that he suddenly learned how to hit like a superstar at age 32. It's more likely that his true talent level lies closer to his .260/.330/.370 career slash stats. And that, of course, is a few miles below where Hairston ended up in 2008.

Which isn't real bad for a backup, mind you. It's just a lot more human. Were Hairston to end up with Seattle, I imagine he'd take over as both middle infield insurance and the 5th OF. I know we just grabbed Reegie Corona in the Rule 5 Draft, but I don't think anyone's looking for him to get 200 at bats, so this team needs to find someone who can be counted on to back up Betancourt and Lopez in the event that one of them gets hurt or needs a day off. And while I'm not sold that Hairston's bat is any better than Tuglett's, Hairston offers a little more versatility, so whatever. It's a minor role, but a necessary one, and it's not like Hairston would cost us a fortune. No matter how this turns out, I don't particularly care either way.

Fun fact: Jerry Hairston Jr. is an infield pop-up machine. Nothing quite like a veteran to put Lopez and Betancourt in their place.

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Is Hairston still a decent fielder at 2nd?

I wouldn’t be surprised if this were a precursor to a Loafie trade.

by JI on Dec 13, 2008 10:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Add in aging and regression

and that’s probably -5 to 0. Oh, Lopez is +.03 according to UZR.

by chrisisasavage on Dec 13, 2008 10:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well yeah, there's basically no data to go off

that isn’t 6 years old

by JI on Dec 13, 2008 10:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The competitive part of me wants to sign Furcal and Bradley

becuase

1) those are our two biggest lineup needs
2) the money isn’t outrageous (allegedly)
3) both of them are good bets to still be positives in 2-3 years
4) the division will probably blow

I can’t help but think that it would restrict the budget in the future, but at the same it’s not a horrible idea to buy when the going rate is less than we thought it would be.

How bad of an idea is this?

by JI on Dec 13, 2008 10:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Both

are also good bets to get hurt, especially Bradley. Furcal could be a steal or an albatross depending on whether 2008 was a blip or the beginning of the injury bug.

by chrisisasavage on Dec 13, 2008 11:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not bad at all

Although I’m not sure if Furcal’s money isn’t outrageous if he really did walk away from Oakland’s offer. Last speculation I heard on specific terms was 4/44, although that was with regards to what the Royals would need to go. I don’t like that for Furcal.

I’m fully on board for Bradley though. Marcel projects him for only a slight regression and while he’d probably DH, he hasn’t been terrible in the field, although it’s been a small sample size as far as the last few years go, so it’s tough to say if those numbers are reliable enough or not.

by edddgar on Dec 13, 2008 11:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If you could add Furcal's D at SS, plus the new outstanding OF defense and improved 1B D

and keep Beltre, perhaps you can wring a good year out of Silva and then get out of his contract, which would offset the cost of signing Furcal!

by Matthew on Dec 13, 2008 11:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ha

I’m wondering if that proposed team could win more than 83 games

by JI on Dec 13, 2008 11:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think so

We’re not far from .500 now.

by chrisisasavage on Dec 13, 2008 11:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What's the deal with Furcal's defense?

PMR and UZR aren’t really big fans of him. Kind of a moot point given the fact that he’d clearly be an upgrade both offensively and defensively over Betancourt, regression or not.

by edddgar on Dec 14, 2008 12:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He's about average

used to be 0 – +5, now more like -5 – +5, but that’s still a win better than Yuni without factoring in the league average bat and whatever Yuni or Lopez could net us on the trade market.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2008 6:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Funny thing about that is

With the new 1B/DH platoon, and the few moves that have been made, this is already a considerably better team than was fielded last year. A big improvement at short and a serious DH bat should make them a much better contender than they were last year when they were the ‘team to beat’. The only facet of the club that hasn’t improved is the bullpen, which… you never know. Sometimes your JJs have shitty seasons, and sometimes your Mark Lowes have awesome ones.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2008 6:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

AAA filler?

Or does he stay up with the club while Tuglet goes down to play second base? Tacoma doesn’t really have a second bagger now with Valbuena being traded and Chen being claimed.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 14, 2008 3:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think he'd sign with us to be filler.

Probably the 2nd scenario you mentioned.

by Omerta on Dec 14, 2008 9:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

When you said 'not done yet'

I was hoping it meant something bigger than Hairston because let’s face it unless you’re working on wins 88-92 it just doesn’t really matter who your 25th man is does it?

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2008 6:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

The depth can't hurt

Especially if this is a precursor to a Lopez or Betancourt trade.

by JLC on Dec 14, 2008 1:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

How many borderline middle infielders do you need

before you’ve got enough depth even in case of a trade? I’d rather they work on a more permanent solution. Anyway, the guy looks like a born NLer to me.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2008 1:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

as evidenced last year

having surplus major league quality players is a good thing

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Dec 14, 2008 1:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's why I mentioned above the loss of Valbuena and Chen

Someone’s going down to Tacoma.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 14, 2008 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"Redsfest"?

Almost as bad as “Lolla-Blue-Za”?

by JLC on Dec 14, 2008 1:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully retired forever in shame.

I know some Halo fans are similiarly calling that weekend “the red moon massacre.”

by Omerta on Dec 14, 2008 3:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

`

Milwaukee is dropping Cameron’s $10 million deal for 2009 as a salary dump, so they are looking to avoid taking on as much financial commitment with a reclamation project like Igawa as possible. GM Brian Cashman said earlier this winter that there has been no interest from any of the 29 clubs in Igawa.

by Fogel on Dec 14, 2008 5:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don't get this.

Milwaukee can contend, no? Mike Cameron’s coming off a damn good year, and he’s underpaid. The Brewers have to see that. They’re pretty smart dudes. Unless we stole all the smart ones.

Seems that if they were willing to put up $100+ million for Sabathia, they could spend $10 million for a few wins in 2009.

Then again, with Sheets and CC gone, maybe they don’t think they can make the playoffs.

by Teej on Dec 14, 2008 7:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs