Mariners ditching advance scouts, transferring duties to stats department
by BrianL on Dec 12, 2008 1:15 PM PST
82 comments
Fascinating tidbit from Geoff Baker this afternoon. The Mariners will no longer be using an advanced scout for games.
One new development with the Mariners that kind of got lost in the crazed aftermath of that 12-player J.J. Putz trade is that Seattle will no longer use an advance scout for games. This role is instead being transfered to the team's new department of statistical analysis. The idea is that the team will receive video of their opponents and have workers in the new department break down each pitch from a statistical viewpoint. They can grade the break on curve balls, tendencies to throw certain pitches in certain situations, figure out what hitters like to swing at, that sort of thing.
Sounds almost as if they're going to be using PitchF/X quite a bit next season. This seems to be the first real news we've heard about the new department of baseball research that GMZ spoke about shortly after being hired.
Now, what are the odds that Jeff, Matthew, and Graham have submitted resumes?
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So, which one of the mods went to Vegas?
Seattle’s new department so far will have just one full-time employee with some interns taking down data as well. The team interviewed some intern candidates at the winter meetings in Las Vegas.
by eponymous_coward on Dec 12, 2008 1:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Like I'd be willing to intern now that I have a real job
by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You can use crayons with pitch/fx too.
by Robert on Dec 12, 2008 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They are so under-appreciated.
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on Dec 12, 2008 2:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see what's so bad about advanced scouts.
You can see a lot at the ballgame that you can’t see on tv. Then again if they have hit FX…
by JI on Dec 12, 2008 1:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
That's what confused me.
Why doesn’t GMZ use both? I’m sure an advanced scout could pick up on something that the new stats department might miss.
by BrianL on Dec 12, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's given us little reason to doubt him thus far.
It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.
by BrianL on Dec 12, 2008 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They don't have hit FX because it doesn't exist
by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this sentiment but this points to a positive trend philosophy wise.
Advanced scouts did little beyond tell you who was hot or not. Maybe so and so seems to be struggling with control or is chasing the breaking ball.
These things can be found a bit less via video, but how important were they?
I would much rather have the organization focus on bigger picture skills and tendencies of our opponents than on what an advanced scout saw over a 3 day series.
by Sec 108 on Dec 12, 2008 1:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tape doesnt lie
It’s much cheaper to get tapes than to send someone to a ballpark to scout. There’s nothing that someone in person can capture that tape can’t when it comes to the actual playing of the game. Things like loafing, bad attitudes, etc. may be discernible in person but it really shouldn’t matter. Talent wins.
by TheTank123 on Dec 12, 2008 3:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
False dilemma
You can send a scout and look at the tapes.
by JI on Dec 12, 2008 3:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I imagine Baker's commenters will not be pleased.
WHY DON’T WE JUST HAVE MACHINES PLAY THE GAME?
by Teej on Dec 12, 2008 1:25 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
It was the best of times
It was the blurst of times.
by Robert on Dec 12, 2008 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Geoff's commenters think that Lopez has a better bat than Beltre.
They also believe Branyan was signed to play 3rd base because Beltre will be traded.
BOOYA! You got Slurved!
by Slurvey on Dec 12, 2008 4:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's honestly a big reason I don't read Baker's blog often.
I think he does a fine job usually, but I’m always too tempted to jump into the comments, and it just ruins my whole day.
by Teej on Dec 12, 2008 6:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty happy to say I've never read his blog.
Or the comments.
by TheEmrys on Dec 12, 2008 9:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If you can keep away from the comments, the blog is very much worth it
Regardless of how much us howler monkeys on LL disagree with his stances. He’s a good reporter and decent enough stylist.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I completely disagree
The blog just makes me angry and I have to tell myself it’s pointless to go obliterate him.
by Graham on Dec 13, 2008 12:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh, you gotta learn to agree to disagree in this world
I spent far too long in earlier times being perpetually personally outraged at the perceived error of others. (Remember that classic XKCD cartoon? “I can’t go to bed! SOMEONE IS WRONG ON THE INTERNET.”) It’s a ticket to heartburn.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
As a fellow ink-stained wretch, I'm a bit of an apologist.
I don’t like the blog that much, but I admire him for putting in the work, I guess. Reporters work godawful hours, and the travel schedule is painful. To take out the time he does to write that blog is pretty admirable.
That said, I don’t read much of the blog. But his beat reporting is pretty damn good. And he does produce a lot of the stuff that we consume here. None of us is at the Winter Meetings, for example. So while I don’t like his analysis, I love that he does what he does.
by Teej on Dec 13, 2008 12:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Same here. I have no problem taking the good and leaving the bad.
They can’t all be Joe Posnanski, after all.
Man, Poz really is far-and-away the best MSM baseball writer in America right now, isn’t he? There isn’t ANYONE who comes close. The combination of exquisite writing style, ridiculously contagious enthusiasm & verbosity, general knowledge, and saber-friendly disposition is unequaled. Kansas City doesn’t deserve him.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard about him for years, but only recently added him to my RSS feed.
And yes, I have to agree. Dude deserves his accolades. His blog entry lambasting the Gold Gloves was fantastic. And he has a solid group of readers. Well, commenters at least. I feel bad for Royals fans. We both root for bad teams, but they don’t get the awesome Hope! that we’re experiencing right now.
by Teej on Dec 13, 2008 12:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But they get Posnanski
I just can’t get over how fun he is to read: he writes SO MUCH (his blog is incredible!), he writes with such verve, and he NEVER says stupid shit that makes you want to smack your forehead.
You get the sense that he’d be doing this stuff for free if nobody was willing to pay him. He’s our generation’s Boswell, especially now that Boswell has turned into an ignorant old “Howard & K-Rod for MVP” man.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
SI's embrace of him -- and even Joe Sheehan -- is what made me go back to my subscription.
I know Sheehan isn’t everyone’s favorite — nor is he mine — but the fact that SI is giving space to people like that is encouraging. As newspapers and magazines get smaller and less influential, it’s cool to see one at least try to keep up with the times without pandering.
by Teej on Dec 13, 2008 12:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting, it will be neat to see where this goes and how it works out.
It’s a hand lotion, not a dick lotion.- wilder., connoisseur.
by Kermit. on Dec 12, 2008 1:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I would think advanced scouts would be the guys to keep around.
If they should get rid of anyone, it should be the lower-level scouts.
That’s my lame attempt to be humorous and pedantic at the same time.
by Teej on Dec 12, 2008 1:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I have a gig at the Times Forum tomorrow afternoon.
Gotta work your way up in the world of language-based humor. It’s a thick field.
by Teej on Dec 12, 2008 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Now, what are the odds that Jeff, Matthew, and Graham have submitted resumes?
Hey, Voros McCracken got a gig with the Red Sox.
by JI on Dec 12, 2008 1:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Selfish as it sounds, I wouldn't want them to get gigs.
That would mean then of Lookout Landing. Or Robert and JI as our new overlords, which is the same thing.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
*That would mean the END of Lookout Landing.
I’m prone to stoopid errors when drunk and up long after my SO has gone to bed.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No it would lead Jeff and Matthew
and since Graham never does anything anyway you’d barely notice any difference.
by JI on Dec 13, 2008 10:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He occasionally pops in to make a jab or two.
Mariners ----> Brewers.
by Taylor H on Dec 14, 2008 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Another pretty ballsy move.
I have to imagine Howie and Chuck — and a lot of writers — will bristle a bit at the idea of anything that involves “technology replacing something a human used to do.” (Even though that’s not what’s happening here, but you know what I mean.)
by Teej on Dec 12, 2008 1:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
You know...
…I think a person like Zduriencik could do this, but a person known for a sabremetric viewpoint couldn’t have…
by rtang on Dec 12, 2008 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's definitely not the guy I expected to come in and create a department of statistical analysis on Day One.
by Teej on Dec 12, 2008 2:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel kind of bad for only being lukewarm to his hiring.
by BrianL on Dec 12, 2008 2:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would too if I hadn't been really happy
by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 2:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I had my heart set on LaCava at the time.
When GMZ’s name came up out of the blue during the interview process I thought it was the typical Howie and Chuck approved old white guy candidate.
by BrianL on Dec 12, 2008 2:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I just kept thinking: Ryan Braun Ryan Braun Ryan Braun
That helped me keep my confidence.
by Teej on Dec 12, 2008 2:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's really doing a fantastic job of extending his honeymoon period, isn't he?
A couple more moves like this and I’ll be defending him like a raving pitbull.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm almost tempted to turn on KJR to hear what Furness thinks about this.
by BrianL on Dec 12, 2008 1:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is easy
Figure unless it’s Groz, the hosts are saying something retarded, and so are the callers.
by eponymous_coward on Dec 12, 2008 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No need
Pedro Calderon
Seattle, WA
157 comments
December 12, 2008 at 2:21 PMI was under the impression the M’s were already doing this charting and breaking down film since 2005 under metrics-savy Bill Bavasi. According to USA Today reports. The advance scouts thing is certainly new.
by JI on Dec 12, 2008 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Guh?
Metrics-savy Bill Bavasi
Uh…
Mariners ----> Brewers.
by Taylor H on Dec 12, 2008 6:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It makes perfect sense....from a certain point of view.
Bavasi is indeed savvy in the art of reading tea leaves, tarot cards, consulting palm-readers and making decisions based on the lunar cycle.
Every day I hear about Seattle sports' failures. Every night I fall asleep to the sound of my own tears.
by Benne on Dec 12, 2008 10:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You guys follow the Major Leagues in pretty close detail, lot more than I'm used to.
Have any of you ever heard of a GM doing this type of thing? Or getting off to a start like this? I’m drawing a blank, but I don’t follow any other teams except the Twins, and they’re pretty effing good at player decisions. And the NL might as well be on the moon. Just seems kind of unusual, as in never really gotten off to a hot start like this.
It’s a hand lotion, not a dick lotion.- wilder., connoisseur.
by Kermit. on Dec 12, 2008 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not in baseball
But football teams have been doing it for a while. They definitely scout recruits/draft eligible players in person but all game related stuff is done through tape.
by TheTank123 on Dec 12, 2008 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's already happened in a few places and it's undoubtedly going to happen in several others
You just tend not to hear much about it because it’s not presented as really big news.
by Jeff on Dec 12, 2008 3:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've been jealous of the Twins approach to player development for years.
Just seems like a player factory over there, no big bumps in the road. Constant output of solid players, having GMZ seemingly headed in that direction is really something. I’m not sure if they take a sabre approach like I’ve read about the Rays and obviously the A’s taking, but whichever. It works, it’s cheap, and it’s quality.
Where you say it will undoubtedly become the norm, I’ve thought the same for a long time. Thought maybe I was missing something. Maybe the patience required is the rare commodity in management.
It’s a hand lotion, not a dick lotion.- wilder., connoisseur.
by Kermit. on Dec 12, 2008 5:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The only problem with the Twins is that their player factory really puts too much emphasis on one set mold
“Small ball” emphasis, downgrading of sluggers, etc. (Just ask David “non-tender” Ortiz.) I mean, you can’t really piss on them too much given how awesomely successful it’s been for them over the past several years, but still they have an extremely well-defined “system.” Perhaps that explains how they’ve been so good at consistently turning out ML-quality players, but it’s a big blind spot.
It’ll be interesting to see how they do without Terry Ryan helming the ship. They seem to have lost on the Garza/Young deal, which if I’m not mistaken is Smith’s biggest move so far.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They're definitely old-school.
But you have to admire the steady stream of pitchers they’ve produced. They’re especially good at pumping out the underrated types like Bonser, Slowey and Baker.
by Teej on Dec 13, 2008 12:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed about the flow of 3/4/5 pitchers.
They actually seem to have the ability to DEVELOP pitchers, not just draft the highly-rated ones and gain that way.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup.
Though I think Baker (and even Bonser) deserve more respect than they get. They could be No. 2 guys.
by Teej on Dec 13, 2008 12:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope to god that the whole Washburn-for-Bonser rumor last year was just that.
Because dear god if it was for real, and we turned that down?…
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't even want to think about that.
by BrianL on Dec 13, 2008 12:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Presumably the Twins understand the value of their own pitchers, especially the ones they developed...
…which makes me think that it was never for real.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Dec 13, 2008 12:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My take on their sense of value is that despite the restricted payroll, they keep the minors loaded.
They always seem to without fail have a guy that can step up on April 1st, and plug the hole. They let the good ones go for cash and minor league players in return, and just keep on ticking.
My pipe dream has been a $40 mil core, with $80 mil for the guys that you just can’t let go.
Formerly dpseadvr.
by Kermit. on Dec 13, 2008 1:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well damn...
I finally found a job that I actually meet the qualifications for in Baseball…
I knew all of those stats classes, SAS programing, data warehousing and data analysis would finally pay off…
So, anybody know how I can get a job there?
by laxtonto on Dec 12, 2008 1:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
SAS programming
You mean my Dad isn’t the only one who uses SAS?
You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.
by bluemax on Dec 12, 2008 5:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hell no...
SAS is a pretty big name in my field actually…
One of th cooler classes I have taken really…
by laxtonto on Dec 12, 2008 5:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've always figured
that if you record a game in high speed there’s a lot of interesting data you could get when you start breaking down the information. It would seem particularly useful for defensive information. Reaction times of players based on when ball strikes bat should be pretty easy to get.
Over time, as you build up data on players, you can start to create plots of how much ground they can cover in any direction from where they are positioned in each increment of time after a ball is hit. IOW, really accurate measures of range.
Of course, perhaps that informationj is already being collected and is being sold to teams on a subscription basis.
by Steve Nelson on Dec 12, 2008 2:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure how I feel about this
I’m a huge fan of stats + scouts. I know this isn’t removing scouting and its just changing how its done but it seems like there should be some value to people being at the games and watching it live.
I’m not totally sure but 29 scouts (1 scout per team) probably can’t cost that much. Maybe 200k per scout including salary, airplane tickets and hotels? That works out to be $6 million. Maybe that’s not worth it.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 12, 2008 4:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
My question is: what information precisely are advanced scouts responsible for?
It’s one thing to prepare a game plan against someone, it’s another thing to try to figure out how their career might develop because you’re thinking about acquiring them. (And I think that advanced scouts are just there to figure out information about how to play upcoming opponents, but I’m not really sure.)
Though I wonder if it wouldn’t make some sense to keep one or two advanced scouts around. If the guys in the film room found some things to be inconclusive on video, you could send one of the super scouts to check it. Presumably since they are ditching advanced scouts, this sort of thing wouldn’t happen very often, but it could still pop up from time-to-time.
(Also, you wouldn’t really need 29 advanced scouts. I think that most AL teams are scheduled to play only 13 AL teams and 5 NL teams at the beginning of the season. And you could juggle them somewhat—you wouldn’t really need to look at NL teams after interleague play until you have an idea of who you might play in the WS, if it even looks like you might have a shot at the WS by late in the season. I don’t know how many they actually have, but I’d guess about 10.)
by ubelmann on Dec 13, 2008 3:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought LL was the stats department.
Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!
by 44FAN on Dec 13, 2008 8:30 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
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