Fun With Numbers
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 12, 2008 10:29 AM PST
in Seattle Mariners News, Good
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PrintUZR Projection:
Ibanez: -14 runs
Burrell: -18
PMR Projection:
Ibanez: -12 runs
Burrell: -16
+/- Projection:
Ibanez: -17 runs
Burrell: -19
(Projections are approximate and deliberately conservative)
Congratulations, Philadelphia. Signing Raul Ibanez has upgraded your defense.
Still a stupid contract, though. $30m/3yr is an awful price to pay for a 36 year old who might not even be worth one WAR in the first year of his deal.
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And he tries to hit home runs
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
He was probally also a dick though, so it's probally right.
Jeff's guide to not looking stupid:
+/- is an absolutely terrible stat, so don't use it, and don't give up on young players before they turn 24.
54!
I'm sad that Phils fans probably won't be as fastidious about giffing his finest defensive moments as we were.
He’s sure to put up many.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
I’ll try to take up the mantle here. Like I said over at The Good Phight, viewing those .gifs is like watching snuff films.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?
by WholeCamels on Dec 13, 2008 10:37 PM PST up reply actions
Man..I'm gonna miss him :(
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on Dec 12, 2008 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
Hey I was at this game
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Dec 12, 2008 2:21 PM PST up reply actions
Thank god it isn't us doing this
It’s sooooo nice to be able to look at moves like this from the outside.
LOL
so good to see Raul’s “highlights” one last time
Burnett -------> Yankees
5/82.5
Per ESPN
Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber
Burnett's tRA+ has been excellent for five consecutive years
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 12, 2008 3:33 PM PST up reply actions
I never said that he was a bad player,
but five years for a 31 year old pitcher who gets hurt a lot? I don’t know…
Darnit
dumb Yankees overpaying for Burnett might mean that they won’t take Texeira away from the @#$!! Angels.
Or am I underestimating their fatcatness?
They're not really overpaying and if they are it's not by much.
Too many years though.
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 12, 2008 7:24 PM PST up reply actions
IMO 82.5 million for a guy who only pitches a full season when it's his contract year is too much.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence since this is the 2nd time it happened and I hate guys like that (or at least think that teams giving long expensive contracts to such players are dumb).
I think you're making a fairly dangerous assumption there.
He was paid market value pretty much on the button. No real discount for long-term contract/injury history, but the Yankee factor explains that.
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 12, 2008 11:23 PM PST up reply actions
OK, we'll see very quickly whether he pitches full seasons or not, now that he has the fat contract.
You said it, not me.
Since it didn’t seem clear, I’m not saying he’s a complete slacker, no. I’m just saying that I don’t particularly like guys who take days off in some cases on various aches and pains (before anyone gets off on ridiculous exaggerations again, sometimes for serious injuries it is well merited), which strangely enough don’t bother the person in a contract year and in which he ends up performing excellently with no such “vacations” necessary.
And I'm sorry to make trouble. I have nothing personally against AJ.
Maybe it’s just that I don’t got any realistic idea of “market value” at present. An 82.5 million dollar contract seems huge to me. Bona fide staff ace money.
And I guess i'm pissed off
because I want Texeira far away from the $#! Angels.
I see why, but that contract will end up biting them in the ass if he signs it.
Unless of course the market has just totally gone into hiding, which seems doubtful.
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 13, 2008 2:33 AM PST up reply actions
Market value is about $4.85mm/WAR.
They’re paying for ~3.3 WAR/year. That’s about right.
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 13, 2008 2:31 AM PST up reply actions
How much have we figured out
if defense depends on the players you are surrounded by?
If we have Ichiro in CF and Ibanez/Dunn in LF/RF, I would guess that Ibanez would make many more plays than expected since Ibanez and Dunn would not be able to reach anything and Ichiro could get whatever he wanted.
With Cameron/Winn/Ichiro there were only so many flyballs to go around. How much of an impact does this make? At a team perspective, is the marginal value of adding talent in the OF constant or at some point do you reach a plateau where adding a better OF will no longer improve your team defense?
I'm pretty sure there's less in the way of overlap than you'd think
There’s going to be some with better outfielders, to be sure, but if you picture the outfield as a pair of Venn diagrams, the area that the circles have to themselves is far, far greater than the area they share.
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 12, 2008 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah I guess they'd have to be insanely rangy for their "Venn diagrams" to overlap significantly
PS. You’re a nerd
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 13, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions
More highlight reel catches would be made
if there is a quick outfield because players would be more willing to attempt the diving catches if they know that someone else would cut it off if they missed.
I am fairly confident that players either dive or they do not.
At this point in someone’s career their tendencies as a defender are pretty well set. I doubt they consciously will choose to dive more.
I don’t think I ever saw a player dive more than Derek Bell and he was a terrible defensive outfielder. He dove mostly because he had a horibble first step after contact and was always late getting to the ball.
I wonder about this.
I’m certainly nowhere near this level and maybe they have their habits far more ingrained after repetitions than I did playing spotty college ball, but on the times I was playing the OF, I know I would change my aggressiveness level depending on who my OF mates were.
Was that due to them being very good, fundamentally sound or both?
You are a good athlete and I have always believed good athletes have an ability to change things without screwing up their game.
Lesser athletes will lose what makes them successful if they give up their routine. I fit into the latter category and I assume some Major League defenders do to.
Maybe you are right though and I am colored by watching Ichiro for the past 8 years.
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