Friday Without Raul

by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 7:26 AM PST Comment 61 comments

For the first time in 5 years, Raul Ibanez is not a member of the Seattle Mariners.

i hope you enjoy Phillie, Raul, and that the fans enjoy your frankly astonishing defence.

You may be gone, but... Mike Cameron is still in our hearts.

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and soon in the hearts of NY

or not, if you read Yankee fan comments about the possible deal….

by msb on Dec 12, 2008 7:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I love how this was posted on a Friday.

by Phildopip on Dec 12, 2008 7:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

You always bury bad news on Friday.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Dec 12, 2008 7:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We're working on subverting the old calendar and are hoping nobody notices

by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 8:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I posted a bunch of links on BTF to our favorite Raul .gifs.

I wanted them to know what to look forward to.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Dec 12, 2008 7:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'll miss you, Raul. The part of you that hit really well. Not the other parts.

Mariners ----> Brewers.

by Taylor H on Dec 12, 2008 7:59 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Fangraphs has a good article about the new M's defense.

I know, it’s really surprising they have a good article, but this one is on the Fantasy side. David Golebiewski (the author) calculates the improved defense as +7 wins over last year. He does assume Chaves plays 150 games in LF, which probably won’t happen considering Wlad, but it’s worth a read and reinforces that defense matters.

"Beer is ... love ..." Ben Franklin

by Jed MC on Dec 12, 2008 8:38 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's interesting

that not only to PMR and UZR disagree on Ichiro, but they also disagree on position from different standpoints. Similarly, they have Wlad better in center then in right under both systems. I know that the discrepancy correlation is highest between the two metrics at CF but that doesn’t explain Wlad that well. Figuring Gutierrez plays center and Ichiro in right, is Wlad going to be a adequate left fielder considering it has been speculated that it is the most difficult zone for SafeCo? Was Raul (I hate to say it but) might have been an underrated defender, albeit still terrible. What do people think about as 80/20 split between Wlad and Chavez in Left? good, bad, other?

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 12, 2008 10:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A) Sample size on Wlad

B) CF is harder than LF at Safeco
C) No Raul was not underrated
D) Depends on how it’s utilised.

by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 10:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

A) Small size can explain Wlad but not Ichiro becuase the numbers showed an almost inverse relationship between the two players CF versus corner. So Your assumption must be RF > CF > LF difficulty wise.
B) This would agree with your assumption
C) Again, if your assumption is correct you are right. Unless SafeCo LF is more difficult then Average LF which is likely correct but still wouldn’t prevent Raul from being an underrated fielder, at least from an LL standpoint.
D) Assume maximum profiency. Wlad has upside with the bat and Chavez is the superior fielder in with the lead vs. Wlad in when behind after ~ 5 inning or so

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 12, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A reasonable defensive sample size for UZR is something like 2 years worth of data at one position

by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 1:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Is that not what you think?

I’m not attacking I’m just asking do you think RF > CF > > LF for SafeCo and do you think LF SafeCo is harder then normal AL LF?

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 12, 2008 6:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, it's pretty obviously CF>>>LF>RF, with LF harder to play than normal

by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 6:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that LF is harder than normal

but how sure are we that LF is harder to play than RF?

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 12, 2008 6:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I say this mostly because LF don't need an arm and RF does.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 12, 2008 6:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Dave wrote this up back in 2006:

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating here; the outfield at Safeco is backwards in terms of defensive setup. While center field is still the most important position defensively, left field is not that far behind, with right field being the least important. The alignment of the walls is the big factor here. Simply put, the best chance for a double or a triple in Safeco is to hit one into the left center field alley. In most stadiums, right center or the right field line is the place for gap hits to turn into extra base knocks. However, because of Safeco’s short porch down the right field line and relatively shallow RF-CF gap, combined with the wall aiming caroms toward the center fielder, that isn’t the case in Seattle.

by BrianL on Dec 12, 2008 6:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if I believe this

If you look at M’s players Ichiro hit all his triples to the RF/CF gap and not any doubles to the LF/CF gap. Almost all Lopez’s and Beltre’s doubles were anywhere but the LF/CF gap. Betancourt had a pretty even spray around the OF with one triple to the RF/CF gap and one to the LF/CF gap. Jojima had two doubles the RF/CF gap and none to the LF/CF gap. I didn’t pick these players for any reason so I’m not cherrypicking. I just went to the mlb roster and picked players on our team with the most at bats.

Also, if you look at the field, most of the LF/CF gap where it becomes very deep is the CF’s territory and not the responsibility of the LF. If you divide the OF into roughly 3 wedges, the LF is only slightly bigger than the RF (maybe 10 ft^2).

The value for a strong arm in RF to prevent triples is small but I still think it should be enough to push the balance to RF.

I’m not gonna comment on the wind but it seems to me that the balls usually get knocked down when they get hit to LF and LF/CF which give the OF some easy outs.

Is there somewhere/somehow we could actually find out how Safeco compares to other parks?

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 13, 2008 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ichiro doesn't have a lot of power, though.

His triples are hit to the right side because to the left side he only hits singles.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Dec 15, 2008 10:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That sequence doesn't agree with the numbers though

Randy Winn 2003 LF UZR: .9 UZR/150
Randy Winn 2004 CF UZR: 3.0 UZR/150
Randy Winn 2005 LF -2.2 CF 4.6 UZR/150
if anything that shows that LF ~ CF for SafeCo which would mean that we underrate Ibanez statistically in SafeCo and he would be a easier to hide/ be a little better in a small park like Citizen’s Bank Park

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 12, 2008 7:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The 'numbers' are hilariously unreliable though.

UZR is not by any means anything close to conclusive – don’t try to use it like this or you’ll just confuse yourself.

by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 10:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

LF is not CF

Safeco has a huge CF. Use common sense and these statements can be avoided.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 13, 2008 1:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome!

by royalcurve on Dec 12, 2008 8:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

The Phillies are dumb.

by JI on Dec 12, 2008 9:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I got the contract and the uniform color right, that means I get to be mod for about 4 hours.

by JI on Dec 12, 2008 9:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I expect to be modded next Friday.

by Robert on Dec 12, 2008 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, Jeff gets to be mod for a day.

by HARRYP09 on Dec 12, 2008 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's assume for a second that Fields doesn't sign.

The Mariners will have five of the first 60 draft picks. The Phillies will have zero.

by Teej on Dec 12, 2008 9:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't believe anyone think he's worth a 3 year commitment and a 1st round pick.

by JI on Dec 12, 2008 9:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I will say this, of all the parks where Raul could play defense,

CBP is the one where he’ll probably do the least damage. Field is tiny.

by Matthew on Dec 12, 2008 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I forget, do small parks like that make certain outfielders look worse than they are when it comes to the advanced metrics?

I know Burrell and Manny were the two worst left fielders in Dewan’s 2006-2008 numbers, and they played in small LF areas.

Basically, I’m asking: Should we expect this park to make Ibanez’s defensive numbers look even worse?

by Teej on Dec 12, 2008 9:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Only if the metric sucks.

by Matthew on Dec 12, 2008 9:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Pat Gillick hates draft picks.

See: Seattle from late 1999-2003.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 12, 2008 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And the pressure to sign Teixeira goes up another notch.

by Matthew on Dec 12, 2008 9:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

How much would the contract have to be in order for it to hurt LAnaheim?

by Robert on Dec 12, 2008 9:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Is airfare cheap between Seattle and Philly or something?

Man do I love midgets.

by Thingray on Dec 12, 2008 10:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Curses

"Ibañez is still out there," Zduriencik said. "We’ll still talk to his agent and see where that takes us. I wouldn’t want to close the door to that opportunity."

Looks like the Phillies beat us to it. Darn…..

by ThundaPC on Dec 12, 2008 10:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Wishing him on the Angels did'nt work. Hukka, hukka....

Mr. Reagins will wait until the bitter end and sign Manny for left field. Good luck to Raul. Looks like the mighty M’s have a few new ~~feces~~ faces on your team. When will Matt Holliday hit the first homerun in Safeco Field?

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Dec 12, 2008 11:05 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

The first home run in Safeco Field was already hit a while ago

by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 11:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"his"

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Dec 12, 2008 11:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a little surprised he hasn't already.

by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I was about to say that the first HR in Safeco was hit by Raul.

And then I realized he hit the first GS there, the HR was Russ Davis.

I better not be wrong.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Dec 12, 2008 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I caught that GS.

by Sec 108 on Dec 12, 2008 1:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What a thing of beauty that would have been...

seeing Raul patrolling left field because Vlad’s knees are shot.

T-shirts printing soon.

by Andren on Dec 12, 2008 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Vlad plays right field. His knees were shot all last year, but he just had an operation on them to clean out the bad stuff.

We’ ll see how he does in the spring.

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Dec 12, 2008 11:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Is the trading for Mike Young deal anything more than a rumour, by the way?

by Graham on Dec 12, 2008 11:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it is mostly a rumor.

Angels have no need for a shortstop, with Aybar and Izturis, unless they decide to trade some infielders in a package to the Padres for Jake Peavy which is more than a rumor. Somebody like Young would hinge on a not signing of Teixeira. Angels are not going in to 2009 without a big bat or two. That is why I mentioned Ramirez before, and owner Arte Moreno likes Manny.

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Dec 12, 2008 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I know

but Vlad’s DH would have forced them to put Raul out there in left.

The shirts are printing...

by Andren on Dec 12, 2008 11:16 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

We need left fielder, since Garret Anderson is gone.

Angels have Matthews, Willits, and Figgins that could play out there but none of them are particularly good.

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Dec 12, 2008 11:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey LLers,

I thought you would like to see how the fanshot on the Ibanez signing went at McCovey Chronicles.

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Dec 12, 2008 2:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs