Friday Without Raul
by Graham MacAree on Dec 12, 2008 7:26 AM PST
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PrintFor the first time in 5 years, Raul Ibanez is not a member of the Seattle Mariners.
i hope you enjoy Phillie, Raul, and that the fans enjoy your frankly astonishing defence.
You may be gone, but... Mike Cameron is still in our hearts.
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I love how this was posted on a Friday.
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Dec 12, 2008 7:53 AM PST reply actions
I posted a bunch of links on BTF to our favorite Raul .gifs.
I wanted them to know what to look forward to.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
I'll miss you, Raul. The part of you that hit really well. Not the other parts.
Mariners ----> Brewers.
by .Taylor on Dec 12, 2008 7:59 AM PST reply actions
Fangraphs has a good article about the new M's defense.
I know, it’s really surprising they have a good article, but this one is on the Fantasy side. David Golebiewski (the author) calculates the improved defense as +7 wins over last year. He does assume Chaves plays 150 games in LF, which probably won’t happen considering Wlad, but it’s worth a read and reinforces that defense matters.
"Beer is ... love ..." Ben Franklin
It's interesting
that not only to PMR and UZR disagree on Ichiro, but they also disagree on position from different standpoints. Similarly, they have Wlad better in center then in right under both systems. I know that the discrepancy correlation is highest between the two metrics at CF but that doesn’t explain Wlad that well. Figuring Gutierrez plays center and Ichiro in right, is Wlad going to be a adequate left fielder considering it has been speculated that it is the most difficult zone for SafeCo? Was Raul (I hate to say it but) might have been an underrated defender, albeit still terrible. What do people think about as 80/20 split between Wlad and Chavez in Left? good, bad, other?
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
A) Sample size on Wlad
B) CF is harder than LF at Safeco
C) No Raul was not underrated
D) Depends on how it’s utilised.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 12, 2008 10:18 AM PST up reply actions
Interesting
A) Small size can explain Wlad but not Ichiro becuase the numbers showed an almost inverse relationship between the two players CF versus corner. So Your assumption must be RF > CF > LF difficulty wise.
B) This would agree with your assumption
C) Again, if your assumption is correct you are right. Unless SafeCo LF is more difficult then Average LF which is likely correct but still wouldn’t prevent Raul from being an underrated fielder, at least from an LL standpoint.
D) Assume maximum profiency. Wlad has upside with the bat and Chavez is the superior fielder in with the lead vs. Wlad in when behind after ~ 5 inning or so
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
A reasonable defensive sample size for UZR is something like 2 years worth of data at one position
by Graham MacAree on Dec 12, 2008 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
Is that not what you think?
I’m not attacking I’m just asking do you think RF > CF > > LF for SafeCo and do you think LF SafeCo is harder then normal AL LF?
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
No, it's pretty obviously CF>>>LF>RF, with LF harder to play than normal
by Graham MacAree on Dec 12, 2008 6:21 PM PST up reply actions
I agree that LF is harder than normal
but how sure are we that LF is harder to play than RF?
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 12, 2008 6:26 PM PST up reply actions
I say this mostly because LF don't need an arm and RF does.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 12, 2008 6:26 PM PST up reply actions
Dave wrote this up back in 2006:
I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating here; the outfield at Safeco is backwards in terms of defensive setup. While center field is still the most important position defensively, left field is not that far behind, with right field being the least important. The alignment of the walls is the big factor here. Simply put, the best chance for a double or a triple in Safeco is to hit one into the left center field alley. In most stadiums, right center or the right field line is the place for gap hits to turn into extra base knocks. However, because of Safeco’s short porch down the right field line and relatively shallow RF-CF gap, combined with the wall aiming caroms toward the center fielder, that isn’t the case in Seattle.
I don't know if I believe this
If you look at M’s players Ichiro hit all his triples to the RF/CF gap and not any doubles to the LF/CF gap. Almost all Lopez’s and Beltre’s doubles were anywhere but the LF/CF gap. Betancourt had a pretty even spray around the OF with one triple to the RF/CF gap and one to the LF/CF gap. Jojima had two doubles the RF/CF gap and none to the LF/CF gap. I didn’t pick these players for any reason so I’m not cherrypicking. I just went to the mlb roster and picked players on our team with the most at bats.
Also, if you look at the field, most of the LF/CF gap where it becomes very deep is the CF’s territory and not the responsibility of the LF. If you divide the OF into roughly 3 wedges, the LF is only slightly bigger than the RF (maybe 10 ft^2).
The value for a strong arm in RF to prevent triples is small but I still think it should be enough to push the balance to RF.
I’m not gonna comment on the wind but it seems to me that the balls usually get knocked down when they get hit to LF and LF/CF which give the OF some easy outs.
Is there somewhere/somehow we could actually find out how Safeco compares to other parks?
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 13, 2008 1:17 PM PST up reply actions
Ichiro doesn't have a lot of power, though.
His triples are hit to the right side because to the left side he only hits singles.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
That sequence doesn't agree with the numbers though
Randy Winn 2003 LF UZR: .9 UZR/150
Randy Winn 2004 CF UZR: 3.0 UZR/150
Randy Winn 2005 LF -2.2 CF 4.6 UZR/150
if anything that shows that LF ~ CF for SafeCo which would mean that we underrate Ibanez statistically in SafeCo and he would be a easier to hide/ be a little better in a small park like Citizen’s Bank Park
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
The 'numbers' are hilariously unreliable though.
UZR is not by any means anything close to conclusive – don’t try to use it like this or you’ll just confuse yourself.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 12, 2008 10:38 PM PST up reply actions
LF is not CF
Safeco has a huge CF. Use common sense and these statements can be avoided.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 13, 2008 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
I got the contract and the uniform color right, that means I get to be mod for about 4 hours.
by JI on Dec 12, 2008 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
Let's assume for a second that Fields doesn't sign.
The Mariners will have five of the first 60 draft picks. The Phillies will have zero.
I can't believe anyone think he's worth a 3 year commitment and a 1st round pick.
by JI on Dec 12, 2008 9:43 AM PST up reply actions
I will say this, of all the parks where Raul could play defense,
CBP is the one where he’ll probably do the least damage. Field is tiny.
I forget, do small parks like that make certain outfielders look worse than they are when it comes to the advanced metrics?
I know Burrell and Manny were the two worst left fielders in Dewan’s 2006-2008 numbers, and they played in small LF areas.
Basically, I’m asking: Should we expect this park to make Ibanez’s defensive numbers look even worse?
Pat Gillick hates draft picks.
See: Seattle from late 1999-2003.
by eponymous_coward on Dec 12, 2008 1:17 PM PST up reply actions
Is airfare cheap between Seattle and Philly or something?
Man do I love midgets.
Curses
"Ibañez is still out there," Zduriencik said. "We’ll still talk to his agent and see where that takes us. I wouldn’t want to close the door to that opportunity."
Looks like the Phillies beat us to it. Darn…..
Wishing him on the Angels did'nt work. Hukka, hukka....
Mr. Reagins will wait until the bitter end and sign Manny for left field. Good luck to Raul. Looks like the mighty M’s have a few new feces faces on your team. When will Matt Holliday hit the first homerun in Safeco Field?
Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!
The first home run in Safeco Field was already hit a while ago
by Graham MacAree on Dec 12, 2008 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
I was about to say that the first HR in Safeco was hit by Raul.
And then I realized he hit the first GS there, the HR was Russ Davis.
I better not be wrong.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Dec 12, 2008 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
What a thing of beauty that would have been...
seeing Raul patrolling left field because Vlad’s knees are shot.
T-shirts printing soon.
Vlad plays right field. His knees were shot all last year, but he just had an operation on them to clean out the bad stuff.
We’ ll see how he does in the spring.
Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!
Is the trading for Mike Young deal anything more than a rumour, by the way?
by Graham MacAree on Dec 12, 2008 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
I think it is mostly a rumor.
Angels have no need for a shortstop, with Aybar and Izturis, unless they decide to trade some infielders in a package to the Padres for Jake Peavy which is more than a rumor. Somebody like Young would hinge on a not signing of Teixeira. Angels are not going in to 2009 without a big bat or two. That is why I mentioned Ramirez before, and owner Arte Moreno likes Manny.
Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!
I know
but Vlad’s DH would have forced them to put Raul out there in left.
The shirts are printing...
We need left fielder, since Garret Anderson is gone.
Angels have Matthews, Willits, and Figgins that could play out there but none of them are particularly good.
Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!
For some reason
I always felt that Garret Anderson and Raul Ibanez were roughly the same players.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 12, 2008 6:28 PM PST up reply actions
Raul has more of a veteran presence in the clubhouse.
Mariners ----> Brewers.
by .Taylor on Dec 12, 2008 7:09 PM PST up reply actions
Just in case you didn't do it
Don’t miss the links in this post. Sometimes we forget to click the links. These links are great.
Hey LLers,
I thought you would like to see how the fanshot on the Ibanez signing went at McCovey Chronicles.
Based on the site traffic and links that I've seen coming in
today shall be Lookout Landing’s day in the sun.
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 12, 2008 2:59 PM PST up reply actions
The RITPIHD gifs are going viral!
"It's reassuring to know that in your life, you can have no more than 32 root canals."
-T. McCarver
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