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How Much Do You Trust Zduriencik's Judgment?

The thing that excited us the most about Jack Zduriencik back when he was first hired was the notion that, based on his track record in Milwaukee, he has an impeccable eye for talent. It seems that very eye led him to specifically target Franklin Gutierrez to play center field. Pravda chimes in:

"Gutierrez is the player that made this deal happen," Zduriencik said. "[Mets GM] Omar [Minaya] and I had a discussion late today, and I told him I had to get a center fielder in one of these deals and the guy I really want is in Cleveland."

As it turned out, the Mets and Indians also had been talking trade.

"Omar called me back a half-hour later and told me we could get the guy I wanted."

This wasn't Zduriencik settling for what the Indians would give up - this was Zduriencik apparently landing the #1 guy on his wish list. I don't know about you, but I find that to be rather powerfully reassuring.

Lost in all the talk about how Gutierrez is a spectacular defender is the fact that he's really not that bad at the plate, and at 26 next February, he's still got some upside as he enters his supposed prime. He'll never be mistaken for a guy with great discipline or an uncanny ability to make contact, but he doesn't get himself out on too many bad pitches, and there's a fair bit of power in his bat. Over a full season, he's got 15-20 homer potential, even in Safeco. That's not bad. It's not Bret Boone, but it's more than acceptable when it comes from a guy with that kind of glove.

Gutierrez is already a perfectly adequate fastball/changeup hitter. It's against those two pitches that he makes the most contact and makes the best contact. So he should be able to handle lefties without too much problem. Where he runs into trouble is the standard slider/curveball stuff from righties, against which he too often hits into an easy out. He doesn't necessarily struggle to put the bat on the ball when it breaks, but he struggles to put the bat on the ball with any authority, so in that regard there's still a lot of room for improvement. Right now he's only in line to be an offensive asset in a third of our games.

Still, he's young, he's talented, he hit in AAA, he hit in 2007, and he plays awesome defense. If he never improves upon his current .260/.310/.410 ability, he's an average to above-average player. And if he makes a few gains and bumps up that slugging percentage a little bit, he turns into a tremendous value and one of the better center fielders in baseball. He's not there yet, but he has a decent chance, and that's great news for an organization that's still recovering from trading Adam Jones.

Jack Zduriencik brings to Seattle maybe the best eye for talent the franchise has ever had. Jack Zduriencik specifically targeted Franklin Gutierrez. Even if you're not a big fan of the player, at least have a little faith in our new GM. This is why he's here. This is why we hired him. Give him a chance. He just might know what he's doing.

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Comments

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I can't remember the last time I was this excited in December for the Mariners.

I know, barring a collapse from the Rangers and A’s, that we’ll likely still finish in last next year, but the team just got a whole hell of a lot more exciting to watch. I am salivating over the return of a defensive unti comparable to Winn-Cameron-Ichiro!

Overnight, Dr. Z put together potentially the best defensive outfield in baseball*. Just like that. I’m elated.

*Yes, I know Wlad will most likely get the majority of starts in LF, but Chavez will be out there sometimes! Nothing’s ever gonna drop…

by Omerta on Dec 11, 2008 10:47 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Last time for me

was when we signed Beltre.

You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.

by bluemax on Dec 11, 2008 12:06 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have the utmost confidence in Zduriencik

His track record spoke volumes and thus far, his moves have given no reason to doubt him. The fact that he didn’t just give into Detroit and went else where and got his #1 guy is an unbelievable improvement over what we are used to seeing. Gutierrez is the exact guy we’ve been praying for defensively, the bat maybe weak, but it still has a chance to improve and his defense will negate some of his hitting struggles. We’ve managed to get good value in all facets of the offseason (free agency, trade, Rule 5) so far and I think we’ve all taken note of that.

by edddgar on Dec 11, 2008 10:47 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Was Gutierrez his first choice or was Joyce?

But the point remains, Z was able to get the guy he targeted, even if it may have been his second choice.

Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber

by Wilder. on Dec 11, 2008 10:55 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think Z would have preferred Joyce

but apparently he was never on the table if it were for Putz alone. Which is fair enough – Jackson is a more valuable player, and getting Putz for Joyce straight up would have been robbery. Good for him for trying to do it, and good for him for not panicking when the tigers wouldn’t play ball.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 10:59 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is Jackson a failed starter, though?

He’s only 25.

Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber

by Wilder. on Dec 11, 2008 11:10 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

See Bearskin Rugburn's comment just below

My understanding, anyway, is that Leyland thinks they can turn Jackson into a good reliever, and that that’s Detroit’s plan. It makes sense to me; there’s no guarantee that Jackson can be as good as J.J., to be sure — but then, there’s no guarantee that J.J. can anymore, either.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 11, 2008 11:17 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Putz is a much better than replacement pitcher who will toss something like 60 innings if completely healthy

Jackson is a little better than replacement pitcher who will throw something like 180-200 innings and doesn’t have any injury concerns that I know of. In terms of WAR they’re probably on the same footing, but Jackson costs less and starters are harder to come by. So I’d say he’s more valuable.

I reserve the right to be totally wrong on this, but intuition and 2-minute analysis tells me I’m not.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 11:10 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right,

I’m trying to say that Jackson’s value above replacement is about 1/3 of Putz’ on a per inning basis so projected over a season they come out about even. I may be overestimating Jackson if his drop in GB rate last year is a real trend (used to be in the 50s remember?) and underestimating Putz, who I think has said hello and goodbye to his peak production.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 11:22 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think you are doing both

JJ’s about 2 for his 60, Jackson is ~0 for his 200.

by Graham on Dec 11, 2008 11:24 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are you so down on Jackson?

I know his tRA last year was gross, but again, I think that has to do with a big drop in GB rate that may come back up. I also think his HR rate will benefit from the move to detroit. Anyway, I’m not that good at calculating pitcher wins but his projected 4.8 FIP has got to be good for something over replacement (Dave usually pegs this at 150IP, 5.5 FIP with the rest filled in by relievers right?)

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 11:32 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Never translated to missing bats?

2007 Jackson’s K rate put him near the top 1/3 among starters right next to John Lackey. You want to know what the big difference between Jackson’s 2007 and 2008 was? it was the fact that hitters had a 15% increase in out of zone contact against him.

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 11, 2008 12:35 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's unlikely to get that all back.

Jackson is probably a RL SP and a lgAVG RP.

by Matthew on Dec 11, 2008 11:19 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They think they see something in Jackson.

They could be wrong — tell truth, I tend to think they probably are — but they aren’t just going on his ERA and reputation. If moving him to the bullpen and maybe doing a couple other things with him turns him into a good ML pitcher, that will validate their judgment; if not, then not; but the fact that they do have

a plan which is at least defensible means (I think) that it’s too early just to dismiss them out of hand.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 11, 2008 11:51 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Very true

he’s got great velocity even as a starter, so he’ll be coming out of the pen with maybe 96-98mph heat. The control is not as huge an issue for relievers. And he’s under team control for not much for how much longer? Putz was only 5 mil this year, but next year he jump up to 10. That’s got to play a role in the decision making as well.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 11:55 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How likely do you think that is?

Those seasons were unsustainably good. His elbow and forearm have been giving him trouble and he’s throwing his split less and less.

/the razor’s edge
‘he was a slob, he was a crappy teammate, he had nasty facial har. He will not be missed"
/the razor’s edge

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 11:20 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't you guys think that Michael Saunders has a pretty good shot to be

exactly what Joyce is? I think I prefer Gutierrez to Joyce given that I think Saunders is a pretty safe bet to match Joyce in production 3-4 yrs from now

by DarkLou on Dec 11, 2008 11:41 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, not really.

Joyce seems like Saunders’ upside. Joyce is something like a 3-win player right now. I would be thrilled if Saunders gets to that level.

by Matthew on Dec 11, 2008 11:49 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What I loved about the rumors in the runup to this trade

is the fact that Z walked away from a trade he didn’t like with the Tigers, something Bavasi never seemed to do. There’s a lot to be said for knowing when to say to the other guy “ok, good luck with that buddy” and go elsewhere.

If I can find any fault in what we’ve got now it’s that we seem to have a systemic surplus of ready or soon to be ready 3 tool outfielders and very little depth in the middle infield. Trading away the only near-ready middle infielder in the system that has an idea of the strike zone seems like a bad move, but of course it’s only December. I hope the in next few months we see some of our large collection of back-end starters go away in exchange for a couple high minors players who can put a fire under Yuni’s feet.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 10:57 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, the counter to that is...

Yuni and Loafie are on the right side of 27, whereas there was literally nobody outside of Wlad and Ichiro to play OF who really offers any upside- Reed is ~ replacement, and everyone else isn’t ready yet.

Also, I don’t think Zduriencik is done yet. If he thought an OF of Raul/Reed/Ichiro was inadequate, I would think he knows a middle infield of Betancourt/Lopez isn’t going to fly, either.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 11, 2008 11:34 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There are a bunch of outfielders in AA who look like they might be ML regulars in a coupe years

not all of them will develop but surely some of them will. My concern isn’t for next year, which will be an extended September callup as far as I’m concerned. My concern is for ‘10, when Yuni will surely be looking worse, when Lopez might be a replacement level player, and Tui’s trying to fill some big shoes at third. There’s noone in the system now to fill those roles. But as you say, it’s still early and we’ve got more tradebait.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 11:41 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We must remember that we dont have a 30 million dollar payroll. Every position in the future

does not have to be filled with guys who come up through the system. Of course having a strong group of prospects is ideal and something Jack is going to focus on. However, he will also have significant funds in the future to go out and bring in quality free agents to man some of these positions everyone is concerned about

by DarkLou on Dec 11, 2008 11:44 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You still need depth to back that up

And having internal solutions to simple problems is what gives a team the financial flexibility to bring in FA that can make a difference

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 11:46 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Lopez might be a replacement level player?

Really?

Heck, Felix could be a replacement level player. I think you’re being a bit pessimistic.

Sure, we need answers at middle infield… but this franchise isn’t going to go from being up Shit Creek without paddles to contention over 4 days at the winter meetings. Realistically, Z has dramatically improved the roster in the last few weeks, without a) committing tons of money to an aging player or b) trading a crown jewel of the franchise.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 11, 2008 11:57 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sure Lopez could be a replacement level player, but he could be an All-Star as well

his most recent performance should carry the most weight, and since it really wasn’t luck driven, there’s no reason he can’t sustain that going forward (not saying he certainly will, but I don’t see any evidence to suggest that he’s headed for a collapse).

As to his defense, the advanced stats seem to think he’s neither particularly good nor particularly bad. Let’s let him prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he can’t play second before we cast him off.

Yuni… well Yuni could still be good. It’s looking less and less likely, but if he can lose some of that weight back and start chasing grounders like he used to, as well as learn to hit… I think 2008 was an aberration, and I honestly think that he’s really a ~1.5 WAR player, which isn’t terrible at all.

by seattlebruin on Dec 11, 2008 12:55 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When doing projections, the most recent outing is always given the most weight

Jeff's guide to not looking stupid:
+/- is an absolutely terrible stat, so don't use it, and don't give up on young players before they turn 24.
54!

by joof on Dec 11, 2008 1:02 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In any linear weighting system, the most recent performance should be the highest valued

now I’m not saying that we should value it like .9*2008 + .05*2007 + .05*2006 or anything just because it’s Loafie, but at .4-.3-.2-.1, you still get the most emphasis on 2008, which was his best year. He’s still young too.

by seattlebruin on Dec 11, 2008 1:55 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's not his *performance* carrying the weight that worries me

Unfortunately, I think it’s Yuni

who’s carrying the most weight now . . .

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 12, 2008 10:56 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My takeaway...

I feel like the most important part of this trade has nothing to do with the actual players traded. It is the fact that the trade itself is so wildly non-Lincoln and non-Armstrong. It doesn’t have that sense of meddling that so many other trades did. Bravo Z, keep it up. Even if something doesn’t pan out, at least you had the balls/discretion to do it.

by TheTank123 on Dec 11, 2008 10:57 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He has earned the benefit of the doubt

(for the moment)

I think Bavasi used to read LL/USSM just deal our favorite players, and do the opposite of what the overlords said, just so he could cackle at our sadness and drink our tears; GMZ seems to do the opposite.

by JI on Dec 11, 2008 11:04 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm feeling this strange feeling I haven't felt in years......

HOPE!
Bavasi always seemed like a little boy trying to play cards with the grownups whenever he dealt with other GM’s.
This trade demonstrates to me that we now have a GM who can play with the grownups.

"It's reassuring to know that in your life, you can have no more than 32 root canals."
-T. McCarver

by Big Jared on Dec 11, 2008 11:20 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is a trade Bavasi never would have made

But not due to the talent exchange. He would have never shipped Putz somewhere to become the 8th inning guy and in the process cost JJ millions. While that is a nice thing to do, it is probably not the best way to run a baseball team.

by Replacement Level Poster on Dec 11, 2008 11:24 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was surprised JJ extended with us for so cheap.

This is why JJ has been a very attractive trade piece the last two years. If Bavasi was concerned about costing JJ millions, he would’ve thrown more money at him.

Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber

by Wilder. on Dec 11, 2008 11:42 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bavasi showed repeatedly that part of determining a move was the consequence it would have on the players involved. Such as moving a player who he thought deserved playtime but was blocked.

Perhaps I’m wrong and that wouldn’t have been a no go for Bavasi, but I think it would have given him pause.

by Replacement Level Poster on Dec 11, 2008 11:47 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Honestly, this made Bavasi a great boss to work for

unfortunately, it’s not a good way to operate a competitive baseball team, and Bill Bavasi happens to be in the business of running competitive baseball teams

by seattlebruin on Dec 11, 2008 12:56 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bavasi shipped Moyer out to be a MOR after being the team's staff ace

Both have been shipped to contending teams despite the “downgrade”.

by ThundaPC on Dec 11, 2008 12:02 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Please...

Sending Moyer to a contender as a starting pitcher is nothing like this trade.

It has no impact on Moyer’s future earnings. If he was after a lucrative contract in the future its going to be his numbers that impact it, not whether he was the guy that started the third game of the season instead of the first. Putz however won’t have shiny save totals to point towards which could have an impact on his next contract.

I think I’m coming across wrong as well, its not a bad thing that Z made this move. Seattlebruin and I are on the same page when it comes to Bavasi’s thought process on this.

by Replacement Level Poster on Dec 11, 2008 1:43 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nope

But glad to see I’m not the only the noticed this.

by Replacement Level Poster on Dec 11, 2008 5:54 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Lukewarm

I don’t hate this trade, but I am not nearly as stoked about it as a lot of M’s fans.

The biggest issue is offense. This starting lineup that Dave posted at USSMariner isn’t exactly a murders row.

1. Ichiro RF
2. Lopez 2B
3. OPEN DH
4. Beltre 3B
5. Branyan 1B
6. Gutierrez CF
7. Clement C
8. Balentien LF
9. Betancourt, SS

That lineup is brutal. Even if we pick up an excellent DH, that is bad. Nobody will ever be on base. Only Ichiro is a good bet to put up a OBP over .350. Perhaps Clement has a breakout year. But you are nearly guaranteed that 2/3 of the lineup will be getting on base at a .320 clip or worse. The M’s will really have to prevent runs, because that lineup won’t be scoring too many of them.

The defense will be great. That will help an already solid rotation. But our bullpen is now a HUGE question mark. And I hate to see Valbuena go. As a plus defensive player at a premium position who hits lefty and gets on base, he seemed like a great fit for the M’s. I am really afraid that M’s fans will cry every time we play Cleveland, who could have a great middle infield of Valbuena and Asdrubal Cabrera.

I definitely want to give Z the benefit of the doubt. Obviously, he isn’t done. Hopefully he can rebuild the pen cheaply (which is not too hard) and pick up an impact or two (which is hard). But right now, I am skeptical.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 11:29 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I might cry a bit

until Gutierrez robs Valbuena of one of his well placed gapper line drives. I’m still crying over Shin-Soo Choo though…

by Kevman22 on Dec 11, 2008 11:34 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That line-up would score about 740 runs

Assuming the DH is a .340 wOBA guy or so.

People are really overstating the offensive problems. They’ll get above average offense (not talking position adjusted) from RF, 3B, 1B, and DH, while C, CF, and 2B should only be a bit below average, with LF and SS as the problems.

The offense is below average, but it’s not terrible.

by davidcameron on Dec 11, 2008 11:34 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also...

Chris Shelton is not THAT far behind Russell Branyan as a hitter.

Branyan: MLB, .813 OPS, in 2319 PAs, MiLB, .917 OPS in 3117 PAs
Shelton: MLB, .807 OPS in 1016 PAs, MiLB, .919 OPS in 2396 PAs

Shelton will get hurt more by Safeco than Branyan will, but there would be worse options than giving him a good chunk of playing time.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 11, 2008 11:45 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Way below average

The M’s will likely be getting below average wOBA (roughly .335ish) from nearly the entire lineup.

Last season, Ichiro and Beltre were the only returning guys who were even close: Ichiro at .339 and Beltre at .336. That is basically league average production from our two best guys.

Here is how that lineup looks compared to positional wOBA averages (in brackets).

1. Ichiro RF .339 (.354)
2. Lopez 2B .328 (.335)
3. OPEN DH .340 (.364)
4. Beltre 3B .336 (.345)
5. Branyan 1B .383 (.364)
6. Gutierrez CF .306 (.335)
7. Clement C .289 (.306)
8. Balentien LF .257 (.354)
9. Betancourt, SS .299 (.326)

Now, a lot of those guys are likely to improve a lot. But only Branyan was above average for his position last year, and that was in a very small sample. That is pretty scary.

Some of those guys should improve, but their projections don’t suggest enough improvement to get us close to average on offense. If you look at Fangraphs projections, the only guys who are projected to surpass league average are Clement, Gutierrez, Beltre (barely, according to the James projection), and Johjima (according to BJ).

Since we don’t have a DH right now, it is sorta tough to assume that we’ll get above average production from that position. Nobody on our current roster projects to do so.

That is a bad offense.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 12:43 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't even know where to start

Your numbers are just way off. If you’re using FanGraphs wOBA, the league average for 2008 was .328. You have every single position except C and SS as above league average, and you just barely have SS below average. Just eyeballing your numbers, it looks like you think league average wOBA is .344 – the actual average of your numbers is .342, and that doesn’t even account for the fact that the C/SS positions get less PA than the rest.

I’m probably not the guy you should be suggesting should “look at the FanGraphs projections”, either.

When you figure out how to use the data correctly, you’ll realize that you’re pretty far off the mark.

by davidcameron on Dec 11, 2008 1:42 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No

I used .335 as league average, as I stated in the first sentence of the post.

I got that from your “Joy of wOBA” article at Fangraphs.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 2:23 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You didn't, though

Look at your numbers in parentheses – you called this “positional average”. The average of those is .342. You can say you used .335 as the league average all you want, but when you put a bunch of numbers out to the side as comparison, call them league average, and they average out to .342, you’re using .342 as league average.

Also, wOBA isn’t fixed at .335 – it changes every year. It’s always going to be in that general area, but last year, offense was down, so the league wOBA was .332. FanGraphs wOBA is structured a little bit different than Tango wOBA (this is being addressed), so if you’re pulling your wOBA numbers from FanGraphs to compare for 2008, then you have to use .328 as league average.

Basically, the numbers you put off to the right are bunk, and if they are what you’re basing your conclusions on, you need to revisit them. Well, you should revisit your conclusions anyway, but hopefully you’ll at least see that you’re using bad data here.

If you still think this offense is going to be terrible, go look at the post I did on USSM this morning and tell my projections are crazy optimistic. Because if you don’t disagree with those, you can’t conclude that this offense is awful – it’s just below average.

by davidcameron on Dec 11, 2008 4:41 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not a projection

That is what he hit in 2008.

Projections have him above that, but still below average for a corner outfielder.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 2:16 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

.354 is pretty outrageous too

I don’t know how you could be pissed about the offense if Wlad posted a .354 wOBA

by JI on Dec 11, 2008 2:12 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Where are positional averages

I couldn’t find positional averages at Fangraphs. The actual and projected numbers I referenced were from Fangraphs.

Is there a good spot to find positional averages? I sorta got the impression that you didn’t like using positional adjustments, but I can’t remember where I read that.

Perhaps the numbers you were taking exception to are from the other system.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 2:19 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's lots of stuff coming in the future

Positional averages may be among them. We’ll see. Baseball-Reference has full splits by position, and you can use the data there to calculate wOBA on your own. If you want to use the FanGraphs data, then you just have to remember that .328 was league average last year. And, of course, they aren’t park adjusted.

And yes, I think that comparing a player to the offensive average of the position he plays is a bad idea. I wrote a post on FanGraphs called “The Problem With Position Adjusted Stats”. The concept of the position adjustment is sound (though I don’t think we’ve nailed down the best fit yet), but using the offensive baseline of each position is a bad idea.

by davidcameron on Dec 11, 2008 4:52 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the point isn't to contend tomorrow

and we’re not done. Do you expect him to fix all our problems with a single move? Do you think our problems are few enough and small enough that they can be addressed over one winter? Did you watch the Mariners last year? Be patient. They will not be a good team in 09, but they will be better, and the improvement did not come at any significant cost.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 11:34 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Its a trend in the wrong direction

No, I don’t expect him to completely rebuild the club overnight.

But last year, our offense was pretty bad. This trade just makes us worse.

Sure, the defense is better. We do have more depth. And we did bring in some interesting young players.

But barring any huge moves (which is a pretty safe assumption), the club as it stands now is going to have a really weak lineup.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 12:46 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

. This trade just makes us worse.

How?

by JI on Dec 11, 2008 12:47 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let me qualify that....

That line is taken out of context a bit. I was referring specifically to the offense.

Basically, if you subtract Ibanez and replace him with two glove-first outfielders (Chavez and Gutierrez) you limit where the club can improve offensively.

But, on second thought, the potential to improve dramatically at DH and 1B is still there. Branyan already gives us an upgrade, and he might not even end up starting for us.

But I would definitely like to see some moves to help fix the M’s problems with OBP. Someone like Nick Johnson would be a great move. If Milton Bradley came cheaply, he would also be a good fit. And LF is another spot where we could improve.

However, even if they do make some smart additions, this is going to be a bad offensive club.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 12:55 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Basically, if you subtract Ibanez and replace him with two glove-first outfielders (Chavez and Gutierrez) you limit where the club can improve offensively.

However you gain a shit ton of runs defensively. It’s still a net gain. Net gain = better. How in the world can you argue that Guttierez/Chavez is worse than the Reed/Wilkerson/Wlad blackhole this team had in the outfield most of last year. Keep in mind that Raul was a BAD player, he’s basically gave back all his offense stumbling around in LF.

But, on second thought, the potential to improve dramatically at DH and 1B is still there. Branyan already gives us an upgrade, and he might not even end up starting for us.

So better? Hard to argue in favor of Sexson/Cairo/Lahair

But I would definitely like to see some moves to help fix the M’s problems with OBP. Someone like Nick Johnson would be a great move. If Milton Bradley came cheaply, he would also be a good fit

Who wouldn’t? Offseason is not over yet.


However, even if they do make some smart additions, this is going to be a bad offensive club.

You mean like last year? Which team would you rather have? The poor defensive one that can’t hit, or the great defensive one that can’t hit?

Plus, considering the offensive upgrade in center, and at first, this team is better offensively than last year’s.

However, even if they do make some smart additions, this is going to be a bad offensive club.

No one thinks it’s going to be great, but it’s hard to argue that it’s worse than the A’s. Nationals or Mariners last year. Depending on what happens at DH or SS, this team could be middle of the pack.

Based upon your bullet points, there’s no way in the world you can argue that this team,or the offense, just got worse.

by JI on Dec 11, 2008 1:11 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK, one more try

I think you are focusing on one line of my post, and not getting my general drift.

I was hoping to see Ichiro back in CF, and the offensive problems fixed in the corner outfield positions, 1B, and DH.

Just to be clear, I definitely like the idea of improving the defense. But I would prefer to bring in good hitters who can help on defense as well. You brought up Ibanez as an example. We all know that he was a brutal defensive player. I liked the idea of Joyce, because he would have provided a defensive improvement AND a solid lefty bat.

Basically, the source of my disappointment is that we just traded in one of our best trade chips and didn’t do much, if anything, to improve the clubs offensive issues. The only player we got back that could help improve the M’s OBP is Carp, and he isn’t exactly a sure thing.

But perhaps my expectations were a bit unrealistic. I definitely will give Zduriencik the benefit of the doubt. I have loved all his over moves, and I don’t hate this one. I am just not as stoked as everyone else.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 1:28 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think you are focusing on one line of my post

Maybe because it was your thesis statement? The crux of your concern?

I would prefer to bring in good hitters who can help on defense as well.

Wouldn’t we all? Teams don’t usually trade those players for broken down relievers.

we just traded in one of our best trade chips and didn’t do much, if anything, to improve the clubs offensive issues. he only player we got back that could help improve the M’s OBP is Carp

I don’t get it. The team got better. Who cares if it was the offense, the defense, or the pitching? Quit focusing on roles. We can get better, and win without hitting like it’s 1996.

by JI on Dec 11, 2008 1:35 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No

The thesis statement of my post is that the M’s offense will be brutal.

I still think thats true, although Z certainly has time to fix that.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 1:37 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This trade did not involve Ibanez

this trade involved, in terms of position players, Valbuena and Reed. How is the offense worse?

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 1:25 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Its not better

The M’s offense was TERRIBLE last year, and we are losing Ibanez. I know that his glove offset his offensive production. But the M’s were not good at getting on base, and they were not good at scoring runs. Subtracting Ibanez exacerbates that problem.

The only reason the M’s MIGHT improve offensively is because they were so momentously horrible at 1B and DH. It would be nearly impossible to not improve production at those two spots.

My issue is that this trade doesn’t really help the club offensively at all.

But most importantly, it lacks much upside. I was hoping for prospects with upside. For me, the most interesting guy we got in that trade is Cleto. Perhaps Carrera and Carp develop into good players. Perhaps Gutierrez surprises us all. I wanted to get good prospects. This trade seems like it is very heavy on roll players.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 1:47 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

oops

I meant “role” players.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 1:47 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

THIS TRADE DID NOT INVOLVE IBANEZ

stop talking about losing him. It is irrelevant. We had an outfield of Wlad/Reed/Ichiro. We now have an outfield of Wlad (Endy)/Gutierrez/Ichiro. It is better. It is not worse. It is better in every sense. You are wrong. This trade improved the team slightly for 09, greatly for ’10, and cost us a replaceable reliever whose contract was about to get expensive. There is nothing to complain about here.

Players with upside we got: Cleto, Carrera, Carp, Gutierrez.
Players with upside we gave up: Valbuena.
Currently valuable players we gave up: Putz

loss of Reed is exactly balanced by Chavez. Loss of Green by Heilman. We don’t need an ace closer next year and there is plenty of time to find one for ‘10. Valbuena’s upside was limited and his value came from being near ready. It’s pretty much a tossup between him and Lopez, the team went with Lopez and that’s just fine. there is no problem here.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 1:55 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RE: Valbuena

it really surprised me how quickly he went from a complete afterthought to near-ML ready. He was really not good in 2007

by seattlebruin on Dec 11, 2008 3:03 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He made big strides and produced well in AAA

then held his own for a bit in September. He’s no future star still, but he’s making good on his skills, and can potentially maximize them to become a pretty good every day player. Thence the upside as a +2-3 win player.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 11, 2008 3:08 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh no, I realize that right now he's a very good prospect

but through 2007 he really was not good at all and I’m surprised how quickly he developed

by seattlebruin on Dec 11, 2008 3:15 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Haven't you been clamoring for the team to rebuild?

This is what that can look like. They’re way better off that they were yesterday.

by acblue on Dec 11, 2008 12:51 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Again, I am wishy washy on this.

I definitely have been hoping for a rebuild. But this is just one route to that. I guess I was hoping for more of a focus on what I see as the M’s biggest problem: OBP. Fixing the defense isn’t that hard, since pretty much everyone agrees that defense is pretty undervalued in general. But the M’s still have a ton of guys who swing at everything, and that problem will be a lot harder to fix.

I don’t hate this trade. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense. But I do worry about the offense. The defensive improvements will help the pitchers. From a rebuilding perspective, it might help us move Silva or Washburn. It will definitely help the young guys who will help this team contend down the line. But that offense won’t exactly be fun to watch.

But its still early in the offseason.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 1:03 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The M's biggest problem isn't OBP.

The M’s biggest problem is getting outscored by their opponent. Fixing the offense, fixing the defense, fixing the rotation, fixing the bullpen – they’re all just different ways to change the way runs score. It makes no sense to focus on one individual aspect of the team because you lose sight of the overall package.

by Jeff on Dec 11, 2008 1:33 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huge holes

You are right. But isn’t having a huge gaping gigantic weakness on one side of the RA/RS ledger a problem?

In order to not get outscored, the M’s will have to score runs.

But that isn’t the main reason why I am lukewarm on this trade. Honestly, I don’t see the M’s contending next year, and think rebuilding should be the focus.

For me, fixing the defense is something that isn’t that hard to do, because teams don’t value defense as much as they should. Guys like Gutierrez just aren’t that hard to get. We probably could have trade him straight up for Valbuena.

Putz was one of our biggest trade commodities, and the prospects we got back aren’t that impressive. Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman, and Jason Vargas are pretty much stopgaps. I would rather have gotten one potential impact prospect.

by Jerry on Dec 11, 2008 1:55 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Shapiro was clearly lying

When he spent the entire press conference talking about how Joe Smith was a guy they’ve been wanting for a long time.

by davidcameron on Dec 11, 2008 2:02 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"I would rather have gotten one potential impact prospect."

Then the team would be worse than it was yesterday, and you’d be waiting a couple years and praying for one guy to save you.

Teams not run by Bill Bavasi simply are not giving up their stud prospects anymore. Unless it’s for something beastly like Sabathia. The way the market is right now, you’re not going to get someone’s crown jewel for a closer coming off an injury.

by Teej on Dec 11, 2008 2:04 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Or a healthy closer for that matter

unless you are talking about someone like Soria

by JI on Dec 11, 2008 2:05 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pitch recognition seems to be the holdup with Frank. Physical ability is not. He absolutely throttles the ball when he’s on the pitch. His home runs could come more often, but they are not cheap.

by fleerdon on Dec 11, 2008 11:31 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And here's hoping

that maybe coaching can help that a bit. Obviously, he’s not going to turn into Edgar, but if he can take a step or two forward in that area, it could make a huge difference.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 11, 2008 11:47 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

All he needs to do now is dunp Yuni for some value

And I will be buying the man a nice Christmas present.

by Sec 108 on Dec 11, 2008 11:49 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

By my estimates it's about 95 mill

Ichiro, Beltre, Silva, Wash, Batista, Johjima are the big $ guys

by danduke on Dec 11, 2008 12:55 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

WOW!
He just might know what he’s doing.

When was the last time an M’s FO person, let alone a GM!, given such praise! Amazing!

by mark sobba on Dec 11, 2008 2:32 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gutierrez

Indians and Gut. fan here. You’re really going to like this guy. The defense is truly spectacular and it’s only, ironically, because of Shin Soo Choo that the Tribe got impatient with Franklin’s offense. A little payback for Shin-Soo and Asdrubal is probably warranted. If you enjoy the aesthetics of the game as well as the outcome, you really are in for a treat.

by MickS on Dec 11, 2008 6:08 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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