Well Today Wasn't Boring
Note: we're also receiving Maikel Cleto, Ezequiel Carrera, and Jason Vargas. Vargas is a soft-throwing lefty starter with middling stuff and extreme flyball tendencies. Carrera's a speedy center fielder who hasn't seen AA. Cleto's an untested low-minors teenager, so expect to hear him referred to as a "live arm". Interesting players, the lot of them, but none of them guarantees. Zduriencik seems excited by Carrera and Cleto and I'm happy to defer to him on this sort of stuff.
I'm still kind of taken aback. I mean, I've known for a while that trading JJ was a possibility, but I didn't expect it to come together so fast, and I certainly didn't expect it to be this big. This is a blockbuster. Not a blockbuster as high-profile as the Manny trade from the deadline, but a blockbuster nonetheless. It's been a long time since the Mariners were involved in one of these. They're difficult to wrap your head around.
I suppose what people are most interested in is the package of players that the M's are set to receive. Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, Aaron Heilman - the two most familiar of these names are the two names about which I'm the least excited, and it's the other two, the two that you may not have heard before, that really pull this trade together and make it worth making.
Like Russ Branyan, I've mentioned Endy Chavez before as a guy I'd like to have around, and sure enough, Zduriencik went out and brought him in, presumably to replace Jeremy Reed. Chavez isn't going to fool anyone into thinking he can hit, but what he brings is the sort of three-position defense that makes him an asset and a real valuable role player. Honestly, he's the perfect fourth outfielder for a team to have - he can play left, right, and center with remarkable ease, and there's just enough in his bat to keep him from being a problem in the event that he gets forced into regular action for a little while. On days when he starts next to Gutierrez and Ichiro, I don't know that you'll find a better defensive outfield in the league. And as Wlad insurance, you could do a lot worse. A neat addition, if an unexpected one.
Aaron Heilman is a hard-throwing righty who recently demanded a trade from New York because he wants to start. He subsequently got traded to a team with too many starters. I don't know what Zduriencik's intentions with him may be, and it's possible that he might not even be in Seattle for more than a few weeks (or days), but for the time being, he's one of the newest Mariners, so he's worth discussing. His repertoire consists of a mid-90s fastball, a strong changeup, and a slider that he had previously put on the shelf. The slider wasn't there in 2007, but he started throwing it again in 2008, and one has to wonder if this is correlated to his dramatic walk rate increase, which prior to this year was trending in the other direction. Anyway, the Aaron Heilman of 2006/2007 and the Aaron Heilman of 2008 are very different pitchers. One of them is well-suited to relieve, but more importantly, neither of them is very well-suited to start. With rare exception, an effective starter needs at least three functional pitches, and I just don't think Heilman's slider is good enough to get him there. I dunno, I could be wrong. Maybe Heilman's repertoire is sufficiently polished to get him through five or six innings at a time. But based on his results last season, he thinks too highly of his own abilities. I like him better as a power reliever capable of missing bats, especially if you can convince him to go back to two primary pitches. He's got a little upside out of the rotation, but he's probably a better fit in high-leverage relief. Under team control through 2010 in the event that the Mariners keep him around.
Now on to the really interesting players. Mike Carp's a 22 year old first baseman coming off a .299/.403/.471 batting line in a repeat season at AA. It was a breakthrough year for Carp, as he had his first sustained success against legitimate competition. He hasn't yet been tested in AAA, much less the Majors, and he's not an upper-echelon prospect, but what he is is the best first baseman in the system and the potential long-term solution that we talked about when Zduriencik brought on Branyan as a stopgap for 2009. Carp's not going to set the world on fire, and he has only limited upside, but with a ceiling of ~Lyle Overbay's offense with decent enough glovework, he's a good player to have hanging around. If he carries his 2008 success over into Tacoma in 2009, then tadow, you've got your Branyan replacement without ever having to talk to another agent or GM. And if he doesn't, then (A) there's still time, and (B) oh well, it was a nice idea.
Finally, Franklin Gutierrez. Though it may not be the first thing that comes to mind when you see an outfielder with a .691 OPS, Gutierrez is the gem of the trade return, and here's why - he's one of the best defensive outfielders on the planet. PMR likes him. UZR loves him. Plus/minus had sex with him on Adam Everett's coffee table. Franklin Gutierrez has played 284 games in the Major Leagues, and in pretty much every single one of them he has provided extraordinary defense. Based on the data we have, it is not a stretch to call him a legitimate +20 corner outfielder, which in turn means that he's more than capable of handling center and still being +5 or +10 runs with the glove. +5 --> +10 in center. It's almost unthinkable. He doesn't have a great bat, and offensively speaking his ceiling is probably somewhere just beyond league average, but even if he checks in with a low OBP, a dozen homers, and a wOBA* around .325-.330, you're still talking about a really good value. While the casual fan may not like him, unless something horrible happens and his career goes down the shitter, the thinking fan should come to appreciate everything he provides. It's like taking what we thought of Yuni's defense in 2005 and putting it in the outfield every day. Four more years of cheap team control.
Mind you, with all of that said, I'm not sure that we really "won" the trade; I think I would've rather gone Putz/Joyce straight up given the opportunity. But I don't think we necessarily lost it either. Jeremy Reed's nothing special. Sean Green has his uses, but his skillset is replaceable, as evidenced by Roy Corcoran. JJ can be really good but he's really risky, and as I wrote last night I thought now was a good time to cash him in.
The player whose loss we might feel the most, I think, is Luis Valbuena. I liked Valbuena as a future Jose Lopez replacement, on account of he plays strong defense around the bag with good range and soft hands, and his approach at the plate should make an easy transition to the big leagues. At no point did I expect to hear his name surface in trade rumors this offseason because he struck me as one of the simplest solutions to the blossoming problem that is our middle infield. However, I suppose if the front office is committed to keeping Lopez around, then Valbuena didn't serve much of a long-term purpose, making him expendable. Besides, it's not like we just traded Carlos Truinfel. Valbuena's nice, but he's never going to be a superstar. I just wish we could've held on to him is all.
Overall, it's a whale of a trade that rather significantly re-shapes the team's roster. Sliding Gutierrez into center and flanking him with Wlad and Ichiro gives us a talented outfield trio that could stay together for a long, long time given a little development. Chavez provides better defense than Reed without sacrificing any of the stick. I don't know how the pitching staff's going to shake out, but either Heilman takes over the 8th or 9th innings, or room is made for him to fit into the rotation (or he's traded). I pray, of course, that this doesn't mean the end of the Brandon Morrow: Starter transition, because I still think giving him an extended opportunity is in everyone's best interests, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there, and we'll have to evaluate it separately. That's not really what's important right now.
I miss JJ Putz. I felt a knot in my stomach as I listened to Thunderstruck a little while ago, and I'm incredibly disappointed that I never got to see his Safeco entrance for myself. He's given us so many memories and provided so many of our '06/'07 highlights that I can't imagine ever getting used to seeing him in a different uniform. In my head, he's still a Seattle Mariner. The cockpunches. The Bonds at bat. Back to the cockpunches. We've been through a lot with JJ. Bidding him farewell isn't easy. Over the years, I've wanted to see him succeed more than almost anybody else on the team, so this is a bit of a punch in the gut.
But it's also a signal of change, and as much as I came to love individual players over the past few years, I'm prepared to say goodbye to some of them if it brings me closer to being able to love an entire team. A team that competes. A team that wins. A team that lets me wear my Felix jersey outside without feeling a little embarrassed. Jack Zduriencik may be old, and he may be bald, but he couldn't be a more different GM than Bill Bavasi if he tried. In but a short while Zduriencik has demonstrated an understanding of both freely-available talent and the importance of team defense, and he's made moves to improve the organization while having to sacrifice very little in the way of future value. That's huge. That's exactly what we all wanted him to do. The GM of the Seattle Mariners is doing exactly what we all wanted him to do.
The Mariners didn't rip anyone off tonight, but they followed a series of good thought processes and wound up making a pretty good trade that addresses at least two of the organization's most pressing needs.
These are good times to be a fan of the Seattle Mariners. Good times, indeed.
Comments
Maybe this'll feel great in the cold light of day
but, as you pointed out, we gave up a lot of MLB-quality talent. What we got are Aaron Fucking Heilman, who dreams of the bygone days when he was as good as Sean Green, and some extremely good defensive guys (and Mike Carp).
Little-to-no-hit defensive outfielders are supposed to be cheap, or close to freely-available. Maybe the market’s changing a bit, but I don’t feel we got Chavez/Gutierrez for anything close to free. I also don’t know why you need both, but hey, strength in numbers.
Carp’s fine enough, but just because he’s the best 1B prospect in the system doesn’t mean THAT much. I don’t know. Again, maybe I’ll think about this tomorrow and it’ll all make sense. I just….was Valbuena necessary to get this done? Why? Hey, I’ll let you keep Gutierrez (or Heilman, or Chavez) if I can keep Valbuena.
by marc w on
Dec 10, 2008 10:18 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
This is why I wanted to do simply Putz/Joyce
by Jeff on
Dec 10, 2008 10:33 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I think the Tiggers decided they'd rather have Jackson
and despite your (accurate) disparaging comments on Jackson, I can see the argument there.
by The Ancient Mariner on
Dec 11, 2008 7:24 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
The way I look at it
we just swapped 3 players, 1 of which is very talented but of no consequence to us next season, for 7. Yeah, the “minor leaguers” that we got in return are young, raw and nothing but unknowns, however there’s something to be said for toolsy prospects that, even if they become fringy major leaguers, have some value.
Joyce blows Gutierrez out of the water, but you’re getting a LOT more than just Gutierrez in this deal, who, by himself, is pretty fucking fantastic. There’s no way I let the Indians keep Gutierrez in this deal. A starting plus CF behind our pitchers in this park is huge, and quite a big hole that was left behind when Ichiro moved back into RF.
Z made a lot of wise decisions today. Huge improvements to the defense, players that are under club control for a while and a nice haul of minor leaguers that could produce something useful in the future. And all the day before teams can pick off bullpen depth in the Rule 5 draft.
by JLC on
Dec 10, 2008 11:08 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Thats pretty bang on how I feel
I know its not true but the phrase “Outfield version of Rey Ordonez” keeps sticking in my mind when I think out Gutierrez. I know he’s already a much better hitter, and hope he can learn to hit righthanders better and continue his hitting from the last few months of last season.
by Scrupio on
Dec 10, 2008 11:27 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Are we ever going to agree on anything?
Heilman, tRA*, 2005 to 2007: 3.21, 3.80, 4.32
Green, tRA*, 2006 to 2007: 4.76, 4.55
By tRA, Heilman is closer to Putz than he is to Green, and this reflects reality. Heilman is significantly better than Sean Green, and if they can convince him that closing is just as much fun as starting, the Putz-Heilman downgrade for 2009 is probably ~5 runs.
And I’m sorry, but calling Gutierrez a “little to no hit” guy is lazy. He was an above average hitter in 2007 and not that far below in 2008. He’s projected as a .260/.320/.410 hitter, which makes him something like a -5 offensive player. That’s slightly below average. There’s a huge gulf between that and “little to no hit”
Why you need both Gutierrez and Chavez – CF and LF were both problems. Wlad sucks at defense and needs a caddy, which Chavez is absolutely perfect for.
I’d say I’m about 75% certain we’re going to look back on this trade in a year and say “holy crap, that was genius”.
by davidcameron on
Dec 11, 2008 7:38 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Whoops, left out a comment
I intentionally omitted the 2008 numbers for Heilman and Green to refute your “yearning for the halcyon days” comment.
by davidcameron on
Dec 11, 2008 7:39 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I feel the same way.
Outfield defense is incredibly important in Safeco.
Our run prevention just jumped up in a big way which makes our pitching far better. I love defense more than any other phase of the game so I am pumped about this deal.
by Sec 108 on
Dec 11, 2008 9:39 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
No, we probably aren't.
What I’m feeling right now is shock. I simply can’t believe that the market has shifted such that it accurately accounts for the value of defense. I’m still not entirely convinced of that. Yes, the Yanks trying to pry Cameron out of Milwaukee is evidence that a league-wide shift HAS occurred, but still – I still don’t think we have enough evidence to say that it has.
Defense has been highly undervalued on the trade market. We paid at least ‘market’ rate per win. Even assuming Gutierrez really is the product of an illicit affair between Ozzie Smith and Adam Everett’s coffee table, wouldn’t you have thought that he’d come cheaper? Seriously – forget win values for just a minute. What, this past weekend, would you have guessed it would’ve taken to pry Gutierrez away from Cleveland? Ok. How about Endy Chavez (personally, I would’ve guessed a PTBNL after his 2008)?
As for Heilman and Green, for god’s sakes, look at the trend here. Yes the numbers are lower if you arbitrarily cut off 2008, but… the trend is what’s important here. Look at the component ratios – Heilman’s LD rate is going way up, his GB rate is going way down. Then, last year, his walk rate soared. Green’s GB ratio is somehow still going up, K’s steady, walks steady to slightly down. Heilman is well known, and he once was significantly better, but how can you be sure he is now?
by marc w on
Dec 11, 2008 9:41 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Gee, maybe because
he’d just written a lengthy analysis of Heilman’s struggles not three weeks ago?
And there’s no way Gutierrez would have gone as cheaply as you think. There’s just no way, even without a proper appreciation of his outfield glove — when the dude hits the ball on the screws, it’s gone
. If you don’t love him for his UZR, you love him for his tools.
by The Ancient Mariner on
Dec 12, 2008 7:20 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I should note
if you don’t see the difference between Gootz’ value and Endy Chavez’, given that the latter is considerably older, considerably worse at the plate, and under control for a considerably shorter period of time, I think you’re missing a logic circuit somewhere.
by The Ancient Mariner on
Dec 12, 2008 7:23 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Zduriencik loves the idea of those three defending in the outfield, with those three arms....
sounds like Gutierrez in center, with Ichiro in right
by msb on
Dec 10, 2008 10:25 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
off-season, I assume
don;t the meetings wind up tomorrow?
by msb on
Dec 10, 2008 10:48 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
We haven't even gotten to Z's best part yet either.
by Robert on
Dec 10, 2008 10:37 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm waaaaaaaay more disappointed in losing...
(“Little Luis” for those of you who don’t recognize the player in the photo)…
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on
Dec 10, 2008 10:40 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Endy Chavez
.jpg)
meet me at the mawwl... it's goin dowwn...
by oc on
Dec 11, 2008 1:20 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I just dont know how I feel about this trade...
But that was a really f*cking funny column, great you could get it done so quickly. Keep up the great work Jeff, you and Z are making being a Mariner fan fun again.
by Boydo on
Dec 10, 2008 10:43 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Trading Putz and Green
Keeping Lopez and Yuni -
I understand demand comes into play here, but are we jettisoning the right players? I really don’t want Yuni and Lopez around a rebuilding process.
by tait644 on
Dec 10, 2008 10:45 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Here in NY, they had Rick Peterson on today to talk about Heilman.
Peterson says he’s a dominant reliever if he would just go with the fastball and that power changeup. Says that Heilman likes to screw around with the other pitches to much instead of just going with fastball/change.
Said he doesnt like Heilman as a starter because the slider and other offerings arent good enough.
by DarkLou on
Dec 10, 2008 10:45 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Anyone have a link to plus/minus?
There was some mention of it a week or so back, but apparently I didn’t bookmark it. : (
Also, is that the defensive metric where the same guys watch all the film to score the players? I’ve been searching for a defensive metric I can grab on to, and I like the sound of this on. If it’s the one I’m thinking of at least.
by dpseadv on
Dec 10, 2008 10:52 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
well
I gave in to my lesser self, and sent KIRO an email lamenting the pitiful state of their Mariners coverage, particularly as they are now ‘the flagship station’ …
by msb on
Dec 10, 2008 10:57 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
The more I think about it the Mets won this deal...
They swap a reliever they were fed up with, a 4th OF, and some decent but not amazing prospects for a reliever who is one year removed from greatness, a completely underrated reliever, and a replacement 4th OF. For a team that needed bullpen help and are wanting to win NOW it’s a great, great deal.
by SethGrandpa on
Dec 10, 2008 10:59 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Well, they are in the NL
So that’s good, at least we won’t have to play them.
by Fin on
Dec 10, 2008 11:02 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
You have to figure they also gave up their Sean Green
as well in Joe Smith who is a righty side-armer with better results then Sean Green. You’re right that Heilman was a goner with less value to the Mets then others but he still was a decent chunk of getting the deal done. I agree that they didn’t hurt themselves with this deal but considering the uncertainty around how Putz will perform I have a tough time declaring a win for the Mets
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
by Trenchtown on
Dec 10, 2008 11:12 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Meh
Joe Smith’s tRA+ the past two years were 99 and 101. Sean Green’s were 101 and 109. Weird, late season swoons aside, I think Green’s better, and is STILL seen – even by M’s fans – as completely fungible or as the guy from ‘Tuesdays with Sean Green.’
by marc w on
Dec 11, 2008 12:50 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Asides from tRA+,
there’s also the issue that Joe Smith is very much a ROOGY: 643 OPS allowed to RHs, 881 OPS allowed to LHs. His ERA is boosted by the fact that he’s been kept away from LHs. And his struggles against LHs means that he has to be used carefully.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Dec 11, 2008 11:38 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Totally agree.
This is a GREAT deal for the Mets.
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on
Dec 10, 2008 11:15 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Everybody got something out of this deal, but the Mets definitely got the most.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on
Dec 10, 2008 11:28 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
You can't ignore the possibility of JJ collapsing.
by Graham on
Dec 10, 2008 11:30 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
It's not nice to talk about 'collapse' in NY.
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on
Dec 10, 2008 11:32 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
No, you can't.
But Heilman’s tRA+ last year was 70. He may very well be in the midst of a non-hypothetical collapse. He’ll be 30 next year.
Chavez is great defensively, but his trend in BRAA goes 5.3, -3.3, then -11.8. He’s going to be 31 next year.
Carp is quite different, but as a 22yo repeating AA, there are question marks to match each intriguing skill.
by marc w on
Dec 11, 2008 12:54 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm not sure why people here think Carp is interesting
He’s a unathletic guy with decent contact ability, a willingness to take walks, mediocre power who plays 1b / DH.
Back when there were rumours that the A’s were going to trade various players, Zito, Blanton, in various deals to the Metes, I compared Carp on AN to Dan Johnson. Still seems like a decent comp to me.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Dec 11, 2008 7:53 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Decent results in AA at a youngish age.
Nobody is flipping out over him, but he’s interesting.
by Matthew on
Dec 11, 2008 10:28 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Yeah I agree that he has decent results at AA at a youngish
age. IMO. that is the main hope. If he could at least play the OF, like Nick Evans, same age as Carp, similar minor league results in the same system, I would rate him more highly.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Dec 12, 2008 9:20 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Also
Carp’s been legitimately awesome against RH his entire minor league career (.879 OPS against).
by JLC on
Dec 11, 2008 11:02 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Yes, and Dan Johnson's been much, much better
(1.009 OPS against).
Before Dave gets here to tell me I never look at ARL, Johnson was a college draftee who was in hi-A at age 22, though he did hit for more power at that age, and kicked ass in his first AA trial. In general, Carp’s got better patience, but’ll have to improve everything else to match Johnson’s performance.
by marc w on
Dec 12, 2008 12:54 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
In general, Dan Johnson has kicked ass everywhere except at the major league level
Where he’s had inexplicably low BABIP according to Fangraphs (.286 in ’05, 23.6 LD; .250 in ’06, 15.1 LD; .249 in ’07, 18.1 LD% and .176 in ’08 with a 15.8 LD%).
If you told me yesterday that we were picking up Dan Johnson for some inconsequential, I would’ve been ecstatic. But right now Johnson is getting old and isn’t very good with the glove. Earlier in his career, however, I felt he was a good prospect and a good future fit for us, should we ever try to make a deal with the A’s.
Basically, I don’t think it’s fair to diminish Carp’s performance by comparing him to a guy like Johnson, who has had better numbers than many minor league first baseman, but hasn’t managed to break a .290 BABIP at the MLB level for some reason.
by JLC on
Dec 12, 2008 8:36 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
That doesn't really qualify as "legitimately awesome."
But as noted, Carp’s young enough yet that he could become a pretty good player.
by The Ancient Mariner on
Dec 12, 2008 7:21 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Plus/minus had sex with him on Adam Everett’s coffee table.
Sweet baby Jesus
by JI on
Dec 10, 2008 11:07 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
I come to LL for the informative Mariners discussion.
I stay for the sense of humor. Kudos all around on that line.
by Freeing Ray Schafer on
Dec 11, 2008 2:37 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I like this better then a deal for Joyce
I still have some faith that Lopez can stick at 2nd and if Valebuena isn’t going to be a legitimate shortstop then it doesn’t pain me too much of his loss despite the fact I like his his skill set and think players like him are fun to watch. Our major differences in the thoughts of the trade is I like Heilman better then you and you like Chavez better.
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
by Trenchtown on
Dec 10, 2008 11:09 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
If we kept Beltre
added Milton Bradley, and Fixed shortstop, how close would we be to competition?
by JI on
Dec 10, 2008 11:12 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Probably pretty damn close
with an excellent defense but that has a huge covet, how do you fix shortstop realistically?
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
by Trenchtown on
Dec 10, 2008 11:13 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Our offence and bullpen are terrible
We’d be lucky to be average
by Graham on
Dec 10, 2008 11:14 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
But... Defence Wins Championships!!!
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
by Faux on
Dec 10, 2008 11:17 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Don't you feel like Beltre will think twice about leaving now?
If that was something he seriously wanted anyway. Hopehopehopehope
by dpseadv on
Dec 10, 2008 11:15 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
And the understatement of the year award goes to...!
Well Today Wasn’t Boring
No shit?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on
Dec 10, 2008 11:16 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
It's also worth pointing out that Jack Z has totally screwed J.J. over.
By sending him into a position where he is guaranteed to be a set-up man at best, he is costing J.J. a shitton of money (provided Putz isn’t irreparably broken down in the first place and pitches well enough). Because I seriously suspect the Mets will decline to pick up the $9 million 2010 option on Putz’s contract (it would make him the highest paid set-up man in all of baseball), meaning he will hit the FA market in 2010 (2011 at the latest with “set-up man” on his resume.
Bill Bavasi probably never would have made this move for that reason alone – not wanting to screw J.J. by sending him into a bad situation. Bavasi was just that sort of guy, looking out for the best interests of his players. But then again, I suppose that’s one more reason Bill had to go.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on
Dec 10, 2008 11:18 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
I don't know if this us true, necessarily.
If J.J. pitches well, teams will still see him as a closer that just happened to be a hired gun for a desperate team. If he sucks, he wouldn’t have made a lot of money anyways.
by acblue on
Dec 10, 2008 11:20 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Plus
it seems to me there’s a real chance — not >50, but >25, I’m thinking — that J.J. takes over as the closer at Shea some time this season due to ineffectiveness/injury on K-Rod’s part.
by The Ancient Mariner on
Dec 11, 2008 7:11 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Carp's 2008
Some interesting numbers.
As a 1b: .338/ .448/ .520 in 198 AB
As a DH: .333/ .380/ .591 in 93 AB
As a LF: .238/ .350/ .359 in 181 AB
All the M’s have to do is keep him out of LF!
by seldom on
Dec 10, 2008 11:26 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Maybe... maybe... it will work out okay
and maybe it’s even all a good idea (regardless of how it works out)… but this feels like more than just a punch in the gut. I feel like throwing up right now.
I don’t know how anyone can be excited about his bag full of crusty bagels we got… but I’m sure they’ll seem appetizing someday.
by johnbai on
Dec 10, 2008 11:27 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Did you ever watch JJ close out a game at Safeco in person?
by johnbai on
Dec 11, 2008 12:04 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
That's awfully close to 'you don't WATCH THE GAMES so you CAN'T HAVE AN OPINION'
by Graham on
Dec 11, 2008 7:46 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
You missed the part where John and I are best friends
by Graham on
Dec 11, 2008 9:10 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Maybe he's jealous of the bond you two share?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
by Faux on
Dec 11, 2008 9:49 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
No offense taken... or "offence" even
This isn’t about evaluating talent, just about emotional attachment to players. And watching JJ close out a came at Safeco creates a much greater emotional bond to the player (just because of the atmosphere.) I was just surprised that someone who had witnessed that spectacle could not “fall in love” with JJ.
by johnbai on
Dec 11, 2008 12:53 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I mean, yeah I don't blame anyone for feeling bad because JJ was the man
It’s just easier for me because I ‘ve already accepted that Classic JJ isn’t coming back. Once those who are hurt by his departure have a while to accept the idea of him leaving, I’m sure they’ll see the positives.
by JI on
Dec 11, 2008 10:40 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Mike Schooler cured me of falling for closers.
by Sec 108 on
Dec 11, 2008 11:37 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
???
Schooler was the man. “School’s OUT for SUMMER” was a great intro song.
by johnbai on
Dec 11, 2008 12:54 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Exactly my point.
When he was good he was so much fun. Alice Cooper blaring as he ran to the hill.
Then he hurt his arm and broke my heart. Now I take closers as a necessity, but I do not fall in love with them.
by Sec 108 on
Dec 11, 2008 2:48 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
The roads traveled are interesting.
John Huber got us Sean Green.
Randy Johnson got us Freddy Garcia who got us Jeremy Reed
Putz was our own drafted prospect turned bullpen arm turned ace by a supposed grip improvement on the splitfinger by Eddie Guardado.
Bob Engle brought us Luis Valbuena
All four have now brought us Gutierrez, Chavez, Heilman, Carp, Cleto, Carerra, and Vargas.
I wonder where we’ll go from here.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on
Dec 10, 2008 11:37 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Indeed.
Add that link to the chain.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on
Dec 10, 2008 11:39 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Don't we have Mike Morse still from the chain of Langston?
Jeff's guide to not looking stupid:
+/- is an absolutely terrible stat, so don't use it, and don't give up on young players before they turn 24.
54!
by joof on
Dec 11, 2008 3:29 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Ugh
Back that up. Green was begot from Aaron Taylor wasn’t he?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on
Dec 10, 2008 11:38 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Aaron Taylor actually got us Sean Green
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on
Dec 11, 2008 11:01 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
way late
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on
Dec 11, 2008 11:01 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Im pretty happy we got Cleto.
I was surprised he got thrown in there and called ‘some minor leaguer’. He has a pretty decent upside, and I thought we was gonna be part of a different deal the other day.
Thats a solid pickup. Too bad everyone will forget he exists until about 2012.
by Slica on
Dec 10, 2008 11:50 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Ive seen a few Mets fans and general baseball fans refer to Cleto as a potential
bigtime power arm in the bullpen. Obviously at 19 he could easily bust, but this guy isnt just a throw in.
by DarkLou on
Dec 10, 2008 11:59 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Keith Law has a breakdown up. He seems to think nothing of Gutierrez, calls him
a plus defender with no clue at the plate (paraphrasing). Doesnt even include him in the list of primary guys the M’s got from the trade (he lists Heilman, Carp, and Cleto).
He does however say that Cleto if he develops his slider can be a dominant late inning reliever.
by DarkLou on
Dec 11, 2008 12:04 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I didn't read him that way on Gutierrez
I think he underrates the guy’s glove (from what I see, he’s not a plus outfielder, he’s a plus-plus), but in general, he was just trying to give a quick summary description.
Also, if Law’s right that Valbuena has issues with conditioning, that may well explain why Zduriencik was so willing to move him.
by The Ancient Mariner on
Dec 11, 2008 7:20 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
A Mariner with conditioning issues?
I refuse to believe it.
by Limerickx on
Dec 11, 2008 9:04 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Cleto should be a starter for now. More details from my awesome brain.
The reason being that the Mets have pushed him the right way and helped him adapt quicker to his leagues and innings pitched. I would like to see if he can develop there first.
He is a power arm, and I could definitely see him in the bullpen…but I dont think they should switch him right now. The strikeouts will come soon, but right now he is blah in that department. His fastball has little movement, but he is consistently in the mid90s. His breaking pitches suck. I believe he has a bit of a cutter that is eh and sits around 90mph. His curveball is awful. Thing he needs to work on the most is his pitching mechanics. His motion needs to evolve and hopefully his pitches get some movement added with it. If he doesn’t fix the mechanics, he will never reach the MLB. With some work to at least be adequate, he could be useful from the pen. But his power, arm strength, age, and ability to adapt…he may learn quickly and become a good starter prospect. He definitely is an ‘attacker’ type.
Vargas I also know of, but he is what others have said…minor league filler. Although I follow the minors heavily, Carrera I dont remember too much about other than what others are saying. Juan Pierre with more pop. Sounds about right.
by Slica on
Dec 11, 2008 12:22 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
I hereby dub our future first baseman Mike 'Magic' Carp
by Nick S on
Dec 11, 2008 12:38 AM PST
reply
actions
1 recs
Is that a Pokemon reference?
Because if it is… awesome.
by G4Real on
Dec 11, 2008 1:49 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
This bitch be trippin' up all in your grill Magicarp! Use a splash attack!
http://www.newgrounds.com/portal/view/377178
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
by JAH on
Dec 11, 2008 3:03 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Maybe when he becomes a major leaguer...
He’ll evolve to Mike Gyrados.
by Fin on
Dec 11, 2008 3:05 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Good, we don't want a useless fish playing first base.
But a dragon? Hell yeah!
Jeff's guide to not looking stupid:
+/- is an absolutely terrible stat, so don't use it, and don't give up on young players before they turn 24.
54!
by joof on
Dec 11, 2008 3:30 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Franklin Gutierrez is fucking awesome
I can’t wait to watch him running down flyballs and taking away hits in center field..
Chavez/Gutz/Ichiro is such a huge upgrade defensively over Ibanez/Ichiro/Wilkerson. I really can’t add anything more, but I’m really excited that the team is finally making good moves.
by MFAN on
Dec 11, 2008 1:24 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Yes, but don't forget the defensive downgrade.
If Gutierrez could only just put up a season like Willie Harris’ last year for the Nationals — insane defense plus non-humiliating bat — he’ll be a massive upgrade. If both he and Chavez can do that, then look out Tokyo. But the most likely outcome is that both players continue their black hole of suck with the bat, Chavez is relegated to a mere defensive replacement, and the overall team improvement is nugatory.
Still, I approve of this trade by GMZ overall, as it exhibits a forward-thinking attitude and a willingness to unsentimentally sell a bargaining chip at the right time. I have real fears that Putz might be in the midst of a collapse (or at least significant downgrade) altogether, even if his second half was encouraging. I don’t think we’re ever going to see 2007 Putz again, though.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on
Dec 11, 2008 8:59 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Christ, I meant don't forget the OFFENSIVE downgrade.
Dammit, I demand some sort of edit function on SBNation blogs, even if it’s a “10 minute window” sort of a thing.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on
Dec 11, 2008 9:00 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
From whom?
Wilkerson/Wlad/Reed/Willie/etc?
by tait644 on
Dec 11, 2008 10:06 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
That's awfully close to 'you don't KNOW HOW TO TYPE so you SHOULDN'T POST HERE'
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on
Dec 11, 2008 1:30 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
See Graham's post earlier in this thread to johnbai.
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on
Dec 11, 2008 1:58 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
This was a complement to your comment, not a rebuttal.
by Matthew on
Dec 11, 2008 2:54 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Well damn...that flew over my head.
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on
Dec 11, 2008 3:13 PM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Here is a question:
What happens with Wlad?
DH w/spot start? Fulltime DH? Triple A again?
by Slica on
Dec 11, 2008 1:26 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Platoon with Chavez? Maybe
Probably too early to speculate, a lot more things could go down before the seasons begins.
by MFAN on
Dec 11, 2008 1:31 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm guessing he splits time with Chavez (and Wlad probably gets the majority of said time) and platoons with Branyan.
Depends on what else happens this Winter. I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see him traded, to be honest.
by acblue on
Dec 11, 2008 1:39 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
That depends
on whether Zduriencik manages to land a LH power bat, which we know he still wants to do. My guess is that he does, and that Wlad is part of what we give up to do so.
by The Ancient Mariner on
Dec 11, 2008 7:22 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I know it is still unlikely and I dont want to scare anyone, but...
Zduriencik said the deal might make the Mariners look more appealing to the club’s major free agent, Raul Ibanez.
“We still need to replace Raul’s offense,” Zduriencik said. “I think the door is still open to Raul coming back here. I don’t think we’re out of the picture.”
-PI’s morning story.
by Slica on
Dec 11, 2008 1:50 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Raul's chance of playing defense here have now plummeted to zero.
Raul ain’t coming back unless he has absolutely nowhere to go because coming back here means he won’t be making as much as he could and he’ll be exclusively DH-ing.
by ThundaPC on
Dec 11, 2008 3:00 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Z mentioned him last night, too
and pointed out that he was likely to get a multi-year deal elsewhere (implying he wouldn’t, here)
by msb on
Dec 11, 2008 8:34 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Just trying to appease the general fanbase.
Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber
by Wilder. on
Dec 11, 2008 7:47 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
They're smart enough to read the blogs?
Screw you, Mariners. I'm back in football's loving arms. *edit: well, shit. This isn't going well.
by kevin_ess on
Dec 11, 2008 8:30 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Raul on a reasonable deal would be a fine fit at DH.
Of course the problem is that he almost certainly won’t be available for a reasonable deal (years or $$) and would probably insist on playing the field, stubborn fella that he is.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on
Dec 11, 2008 9:02 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Bavasi would have given Willie 5/45m and flipped Putz for the corpse of Bob Hamlin and a buffet pass for Silva.
I have eight watches. None of them are fake.
by RafaelCarmona22 on
Dec 11, 2008 2:20 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
The reign of Bavasi is now over.
And I think this is starting to convince people so.
by Fin on
Dec 11, 2008 3:04 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I LOVE Franklin Gutierrez.
I can’t believe Cleveland gave him up! Although they still have Ben Fransisco, who is basically the same type of player, but with more upside.
Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber
by Wilder. on
Dec 11, 2008 7:28 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
False.
The majority of us kind of dislike BenFran and love Gutz. Francisco gets a lot of irrational love from the mainstream folks and we’ve had to irrationally shit on him a little to temper it. He’s not a good defender and I suspect he’ll never put up worthy starting numbers. I’d love to be wrong but I’d also love to trade him to a GM that thinks he’s an up-and-comer at the age of 27.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on
Dec 11, 2008 8:48 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Oh, well this is good to know.
Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber
by Wilder. on
Dec 11, 2008 9:58 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
plus, Ben Francisco makes you sing that song whenever he gets announced...
Benn Francisco, open your golden gate
You let no stranger wait outside your door.
Ben Francisco, here is your wanderin’ one
Saying “I’ll wander no more.”
by msb on
Dec 11, 2008 10:13 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
How much of a difference is there between Gutierrez and Coco Crisp?
by Edgar for Pres on
Dec 11, 2008 7:29 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Gutierrez >> Crisp on defense, <<<< with bat so far.
But he’s still youngish and who knows? Maybe he’ll figure something out.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on
Dec 11, 2008 9:03 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
"<<<< with bat so far."
Have you looked at his numbers?
by Graham on
Dec 11, 2008 9:05 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Dammit, I hate it when a mod calls me on my BS
No, I haven’t. I’m just going on talk about his offensive rep that I’ve heard from here and BTF so far.
I suspect I look foolish.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on
Dec 11, 2008 9:06 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I've been poking around for the past 20 minutes or so.
He seemed to show at least some ability take a walk in the minors. His overall minor-league line is .282/.347/.462
His AAA line over 665 plate appearances: .284/.361/.436. I’m not sure what kind of hitter’s environment Buffalo is, though.
It looks like as he moved up the system, his OBP rose while his SLG dropped.
He’s going to strike out a lot, but I think a lot of people are underrating his bat (perhaps because he’s so awesome in the field . . . ). His skills haven’t translated into a very respectable MLB line, but it appears that the skills do exist.
I’m pretty much just talking to myself here, by the way.
by Teej on
Dec 11, 2008 9:14 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
But what the hell?!
There goes Tuesday’s with Sean Green. Fuck this trade!
Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber
by Wilder. on
Dec 11, 2008 7:31 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Nah, we just need Jeff to keep doing it at the SBN Mets blog.
by The Ancient Mariner on
Dec 11, 2008 8:22 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Mondays with Morse.
Screw you, Mariners. I'm back in football's loving arms. *edit: well, shit. This isn't going well.
by kevin_ess on
Dec 11, 2008 9:19 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm surprised that you believe Carp is decent defensively
Everything I’ve read, from BA, and from various Mets fans who have seen him play, indicate that he’s mediocre defensively.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Dec 11, 2008 7:57 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm from LGT
And there is a very healthy population of us that have serious man crushes on Franklin. He’s a joy to watch run and dive and jump and cannon guys from the outfield. Occasionally he hits moonshots that make you believe in a solid offensive player hiding in there.
Overall we’re pretty happy with the Valbuena kid. It’s conceivable that we may just play him at second to start the year with Barfield and Carroll. I’d guess the more likely scenario is him starting in AAA. Which doesn’t do a LOT to address our MI situation but it’s better than nothing. If him and Asdrubal are turning amazing double plays by August I’ll be pretty happy.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on
Dec 11, 2008 8:52 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
And maybe I shouldn't talk like LGT is the Borg.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on
Dec 11, 2008 8:55 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
We would have liked to assimilate Chris Antonetti into our collective consciousness.
But so far, I have to say I’m pleased with Jack Unpronounceable Consonant Cluster.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on
Dec 11, 2008 9:05 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Those should be OUR amazing double plays.
Fuck Eduardo Perez.
by Terminator_X on
Dec 11, 2008 9:05 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
And God damn did Shin-Soo Choo destroy the ball last year...
by seattlebruin on
Dec 11, 2008 9:23 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Indeed. But he had a pretty high BABIP and he didn't face many lefties.
Not that that explains the entirety of his great line, but he definitely had some luck and a lot of favorable matchups.
by Teej on
Dec 11, 2008 9:30 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
High BABIP but ridiculously high LD% as well
by seattlebruin on
Dec 11, 2008 9:33 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Interesting.
StatCorner has his LD% at a little above average, though Fangraphs has it a few full percentage points higher.
by Teej on
Dec 11, 2008 9:42 AM PST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Mariners buying in bulk
That alone is a big change and puts a smile on my face. Add in a couple of draft picks after Raul hits the road, and the shelves are starting to get stocked again. It’s been awhile…
by glennpdx on
Dec 11, 2008 9:28 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm still in shock, or should I say Thunderstruck. I am pleased with the trade, but sad to see JJ go.
Thanks for the write up Jeff. It was great. I never have enough time to look at all this stuff myself.
I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.
by InSpokane on
Dec 11, 2008 9:31 AM PST
reply
actions
0 recs
Great article - Mets Fan
Awesome article man, we wish you guys the best. Carp was our replacement for Delgado, like you said, not a superstar but should be solid. And Endy, well he’s beloved.
[img]http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/10/20/sports/endychavez_blog.553.jpg[/img]
by Kraft4Prez on
Dec 11, 2008 12:15 PM PST
reply
actions
0 recs















