Lookout Landing: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Backing the Pack for NC State Fans!


spread the word

Well Today Wasn't Boring

Note: we're also receiving Maikel Cleto, Ezequiel Carrera, and Jason Vargas. Vargas is a soft-throwing lefty starter with middling stuff and extreme flyball tendencies. Carrera's a speedy center fielder who hasn't seen AA. Cleto's an untested low-minors teenager, so expect to hear him referred to as a "live arm". Interesting players, the lot of them, but none of them guarantees. Zduriencik seems excited by Carrera and Cleto and I'm happy to defer to him on this sort of stuff.

I'm still kind of taken aback. I mean, I've known for a while that trading JJ was a possibility, but I didn't expect it to come together so fast, and I certainly didn't expect it to be this big. This is a blockbuster. Not a blockbuster as high-profile as the Manny trade from the deadline, but a blockbuster nonetheless. It's been a long time since the Mariners were involved in one of these. They're difficult to wrap your head around.

I suppose what people are most interested in is the package of players that the M's are set to receive. Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, Aaron Heilman - the two most familiar of these names are the two names about which I'm the least excited, and it's the other two, the two that you may not have heard before, that really pull this trade together and make it worth making.

Like Russ Branyan, I've mentioned Endy Chavez before as a guy I'd like to have around, and sure enough, Zduriencik went out and brought him in, presumably to replace Jeremy Reed. Chavez isn't going to fool anyone into thinking he can hit, but what he brings is the sort of three-position defense that makes him an asset and a real valuable role player. Honestly, he's the perfect fourth outfielder for a team to have - he can play left, right, and center with remarkable ease, and there's just enough in his bat to keep him from being a problem in the event that he gets forced into regular action for a little while. On days when he starts next to Gutierrez and Ichiro, I don't know that you'll find a better defensive outfield in the league. And as Wlad insurance, you could do a lot worse. A neat addition, if an unexpected one.

Aaron Heilman is a hard-throwing righty who recently demanded a trade from New York because he wants to start. He subsequently got traded to a team with too many starters. I don't know what Zduriencik's intentions with him may be, and it's possible that he might not even be in Seattle for more than a few weeks (or days), but for the time being, he's one of the newest Mariners, so he's worth discussing. His repertoire consists of a mid-90s fastball, a strong changeup, and a slider that he had previously put on the shelf. The slider wasn't there in 2007, but he started throwing it again in 2008, and one has to wonder if this is correlated to his dramatic walk rate increase, which prior to this year was trending in the other direction. Anyway, the Aaron Heilman of 2006/2007 and the Aaron Heilman of 2008 are very different pitchers. One of them is well-suited to relieve, but more importantly, neither of them is very well-suited to start. With rare exception, an effective starter needs at least three functional pitches, and I just don't think Heilman's slider is good enough to get him there. I dunno, I could be wrong. Maybe Heilman's repertoire is sufficiently polished to get him through five or six innings at a time. But based on his results last season, he thinks too highly of his own abilities. I like him better as a power reliever capable of missing bats, especially if you can convince him to go back to two primary pitches. He's got a little upside out of the rotation, but he's probably a better fit in high-leverage relief. Under team control through 2010 in the event that the Mariners keep him around.

Now on to the really interesting players. Mike Carp's a 22 year old first baseman coming off a .299/.403/.471 batting line in a repeat season at AA. It was a breakthrough year for Carp, as he had his first sustained success against legitimate competition. He hasn't yet been tested in AAA, much less the Majors, and he's not an upper-echelon prospect, but what he is is the best first baseman in the system and the potential long-term solution that we talked about when Zduriencik brought on Branyan as a stopgap for 2009. Carp's not going to set the world on fire, and he has only limited upside, but with a ceiling of ~Lyle Overbay's offense with decent enough glovework, he's a good player to have hanging around. If he carries his 2008 success over into Tacoma in 2009, then tadow, you've got your Branyan replacement without ever having to talk to another agent or GM. And if he doesn't, then (A) there's still time, and (B) oh well, it was a nice idea.

Finally, Franklin Gutierrez. Though it may not be the first thing that comes to mind when you see an outfielder with a .691 OPS, Gutierrez is the gem of the trade return, and here's why - he's one of the best defensive outfielders on the planet. PMR likes him. UZR loves him. Plus/minus had sex with him on Adam Everett's coffee table. Franklin Gutierrez has played 284 games in the Major Leagues, and in pretty much every single one of them he has provided extraordinary defense. Based on the data we have, it is not a stretch to call him a legitimate +20 corner outfielder, which in turn means that he's more than capable of handling center and still being +5 or +10 runs with the glove. +5 --> +10 in center. It's almost unthinkable. He doesn't have a great bat, and offensively speaking his ceiling is probably somewhere just beyond league average, but even if he checks in with a low OBP, a dozen homers, and a wOBA* around .325-.330, you're still talking about a really good value. While the casual fan may not like him, unless something horrible happens and his career goes down the shitter, the thinking fan should come to appreciate everything he provides. It's like taking what we thought of Yuni's defense in 2005 and putting it in the outfield every day. Four more years of cheap team control.

Mind you, with all of that said, I'm not sure that we really "won" the trade; I think I would've rather gone Putz/Joyce straight up given the opportunity. But I don't think we necessarily lost it either. Jeremy Reed's nothing special. Sean Green has his uses, but his skillset is replaceable, as evidenced by Roy Corcoran. JJ can be really good but he's really risky, and as I wrote last night I thought now was a good time to cash him in.

The player whose loss we might feel the most, I think, is Luis Valbuena. I liked Valbuena as a future Jose Lopez replacement, on account of he plays strong defense around the bag with good range and soft hands, and his approach at the plate should make an easy transition to the big leagues. At no point did I expect to hear his name surface in trade rumors this offseason because he struck me as one of the simplest solutions to the blossoming problem that is our middle infield. However, I suppose if the front office is committed to keeping Lopez around, then Valbuena didn't serve much of a long-term purpose, making him expendable. Besides, it's not like we just traded Carlos Truinfel. Valbuena's nice, but he's never going to be a superstar. I just wish we could've held on to him is all.

Overall, it's a whale of a trade that rather significantly re-shapes the team's roster. Sliding Gutierrez into center and flanking him with Wlad and Ichiro gives us a talented outfield trio that could stay together for a long, long time given a little development. Chavez provides better defense than Reed without sacrificing any of the stick. I don't know how the pitching staff's going to shake out, but either Heilman takes over the 8th or 9th innings, or room is made for him to fit into the rotation (or he's traded). I pray, of course, that this doesn't mean the end of the Brandon Morrow: Starter transition, because I still think giving him an extended opportunity is in everyone's best interests, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there, and we'll have to evaluate it separately. That's not really what's important right now.

I miss JJ Putz. I felt a knot in my stomach as I listened to Thunderstruck a little while ago, and I'm incredibly disappointed that I never got to see his Safeco entrance for myself. He's given us so many memories and provided so many of our '06/'07 highlights that I can't imagine ever getting used to seeing him in a different uniform. In my head, he's still a Seattle Mariner. The cockpunches. The Bonds at bat. Back to the cockpunches. We've been through a lot with JJ. Bidding him farewell isn't easy. Over the years, I've wanted to see him succeed more than almost anybody else on the team, so this is a bit of a punch in the gut.

But it's also a signal of change, and as much as I came to love individual players over the past few years, I'm prepared to say goodbye to some of them if it brings me closer to being able to love an entire team. A team that competes. A team that wins. A team that lets me wear my Felix jersey outside without feeling a little embarrassed. Jack Zduriencik may be old, and he may be bald, but he couldn't be a more different GM than Bill Bavasi if he tried. In but a short while Zduriencik has demonstrated an understanding of both freely-available talent and the importance of team defense, and he's made moves to improve the organization while having to sacrifice very little in the way of future value. That's huge. That's exactly what we all wanted him to do. The GM of the Seattle Mariners is doing exactly what we all wanted him to do.

The Mariners didn't rip anyone off tonight, but they followed a series of good thought processes and wound up making a pretty good trade that addresses at least two of the organization's most pressing needs.

These are good times to be a fan of the Seattle Mariners. Good times, indeed.

3 recs | Comment 183 comments | Share on Facebook Digg!

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Lookout Landing

39-37, Game Notes

Jul 2009 by Jeff - 58 comments

Filling in at Third Base

Jun 2009 by Matthew - 70 comments

Today's Fun Fact

Jun 2009 by Jeff - 68 comments

36-35, Summary

Jun 2009 by Jeff - 27 comments

Endy Chavez has a torn ACL

Jun 2009 by Matthew - 34 comments

Comments

Display:

Maybe this'll feel great in the cold light of day

but, as you pointed out, we gave up a lot of MLB-quality talent. What we got are Aaron Fucking Heilman, who dreams of the bygone days when he was as good as Sean Green, and some extremely good defensive guys (and Mike Carp).

Little-to-no-hit defensive outfielders are supposed to be cheap, or close to freely-available. Maybe the market’s changing a bit, but I don’t feel we got Chavez/Gutierrez for anything close to free. I also don’t know why you need both, but hey, strength in numbers.

Carp’s fine enough, but just because he’s the best 1B prospect in the system doesn’t mean THAT much. I don’t know. Again, maybe I’ll think about this tomorrow and it’ll all make sense. I just….was Valbuena necessary to get this done? Why? Hey, I’ll let you keep Gutierrez (or Heilman, or Chavez) if I can keep Valbuena.

by marc w on Dec 10, 2008 10:18 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The way I look at it

we just swapped 3 players, 1 of which is very talented but of no consequence to us next season, for 7. Yeah, the “minor leaguers” that we got in return are young, raw and nothing but unknowns, however there’s something to be said for toolsy prospects that, even if they become fringy major leaguers, have some value.

Joyce blows Gutierrez out of the water, but you’re getting a LOT more than just Gutierrez in this deal, who, by himself, is pretty fucking fantastic. There’s no way I let the Indians keep Gutierrez in this deal. A starting plus CF behind our pitchers in this park is huge, and quite a big hole that was left behind when Ichiro moved back into RF.

Z made a lot of wise decisions today. Huge improvements to the defense, players that are under club control for a while and a nice haul of minor leaguers that could produce something useful in the future. And all the day before teams can pick off bullpen depth in the Rule 5 draft.

by JLC on Dec 10, 2008 11:08 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thats pretty bang on how I feel

I know its not true but the phrase “Outfield version of Rey Ordonez” keeps sticking in my mind when I think out Gutierrez. I know he’s already a much better hitter, and hope he can learn to hit righthanders better and continue his hitting from the last few months of last season.

by Scrupio on Dec 10, 2008 11:27 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are we ever going to agree on anything?

Heilman, tRA*, 2005 to 2007: 3.21, 3.80, 4.32
Green, tRA*, 2006 to 2007: 4.76, 4.55

By tRA, Heilman is closer to Putz than he is to Green, and this reflects reality. Heilman is significantly better than Sean Green, and if they can convince him that closing is just as much fun as starting, the Putz-Heilman downgrade for 2009 is probably ~5 runs.

And I’m sorry, but calling Gutierrez a “little to no hit” guy is lazy. He was an above average hitter in 2007 and not that far below in 2008. He’s projected as a .260/.320/.410 hitter, which makes him something like a -5 offensive player. That’s slightly below average. There’s a huge gulf between that and “little to no hit”

Why you need both Gutierrez and Chavez – CF and LF were both problems. Wlad sucks at defense and needs a caddy, which Chavez is absolutely perfect for.

I’d say I’m about 75% certain we’re going to look back on this trade in a year and say “holy crap, that was genius”.

by davidcameron on Dec 11, 2008 7:38 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Whoops, left out a comment

I intentionally omitted the 2008 numbers for Heilman and Green to refute your “yearning for the halcyon days” comment.

by davidcameron on Dec 11, 2008 7:39 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I feel the same way.

Outfield defense is incredibly important in Safeco.

Our run prevention just jumped up in a big way which makes our pitching far better. I love defense more than any other phase of the game so I am pumped about this deal.

by Sec 108 on Dec 11, 2008 9:39 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, we probably aren't.

What I’m feeling right now is shock. I simply can’t believe that the market has shifted such that it accurately accounts for the value of defense. I’m still not entirely convinced of that. Yes, the Yanks trying to pry Cameron out of Milwaukee is evidence that a league-wide shift HAS occurred, but still – I still don’t think we have enough evidence to say that it has.

Defense has been highly undervalued on the trade market. We paid at least ‘market’ rate per win. Even assuming Gutierrez really is the product of an illicit affair between Ozzie Smith and Adam Everett’s coffee table, wouldn’t you have thought that he’d come cheaper? Seriously – forget win values for just a minute. What, this past weekend, would you have guessed it would’ve taken to pry Gutierrez away from Cleveland? Ok. How about Endy Chavez (personally, I would’ve guessed a PTBNL after his 2008)?

As for Heilman and Green, for god’s sakes, look at the trend here. Yes the numbers are lower if you arbitrarily cut off 2008, but… the trend is what’s important here. Look at the component ratios – Heilman’s LD rate is going way up, his GB rate is going way down. Then, last year, his walk rate soared. Green’s GB ratio is somehow still going up, K’s steady, walks steady to slightly down. Heilman is well known, and he once was significantly better, but how can you be sure he is now?

by marc w on Dec 11, 2008 9:41 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gee, maybe because

he’d just written a lengthy analysis of Heilman’s struggles not three weeks ago?

And there’s no way Gutierrez would have gone as cheaply as you think. There’s just no way, even without a proper appreciation of his outfield glove — when the dude hits the ball on the screws, it’s gone

. If you don’t love him for his UZR, you love him for his tools.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 12, 2008 7:20 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I should note

if you don’t see the difference between Gootz’ value and Endy Chavez’, given that the latter is considerably older, considerably worse at the plate, and under control for a considerably shorter period of time, I think you’re missing a logic circuit somewhere.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 12, 2008 7:23 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm waaaaaaaay more disappointed in losing...

(“Little Luis” for those of you who don’t recognize the player in the photo)…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Dec 10, 2008 10:40 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Endy Chavez

meet me at the mawwl... it's goin dowwn...

by oc on Dec 11, 2008 1:20 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just dont know how I feel about this trade...

But that was a really f*cking funny column, great you could get it done so quickly. Keep up the great work Jeff, you and Z are making being a Mariner fan fun again.

by Boydo on Dec 10, 2008 10:43 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Trading Putz and Green

Keeping Lopez and Yuni -

I understand demand comes into play here, but are we jettisoning the right players? I really don’t want Yuni and Lopez around a rebuilding process.

by tait644 on Dec 10, 2008 10:45 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here in NY, they had Rick Peterson on today to talk about Heilman.

Peterson says he’s a dominant reliever if he would just go with the fastball and that power changeup. Says that Heilman likes to screw around with the other pitches to much instead of just going with fastball/change.

Said he doesnt like Heilman as a starter because the slider and other offerings arent good enough.

by DarkLou on Dec 10, 2008 10:45 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Anyone have a link to plus/minus?

There was some mention of it a week or so back, but apparently I didn’t bookmark it. : (

Also, is that the defensive metric where the same guys watch all the film to score the players? I’ve been searching for a defensive metric I can grab on to, and I like the sound of this on. If it’s the one I’m thinking of at least.

by dpseadv on Dec 10, 2008 10:52 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well

I gave in to my lesser self, and sent KIRO an email lamenting the pitiful state of their Mariners coverage, particularly as they are now ‘the flagship station’ …

by msb on Dec 10, 2008 10:57 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The more I think about it the Mets won this deal...

They swap a reliever they were fed up with, a 4th OF, and some decent but not amazing prospects for a reliever who is one year removed from greatness, a completely underrated reliever, and a replacement 4th OF. For a team that needed bullpen help and are wanting to win NOW it’s a great, great deal.

by SethGrandpa on Dec 10, 2008 10:59 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, they are in the NL

So that’s good, at least we won’t have to play them.

by Fin on Dec 10, 2008 11:02 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You have to figure they also gave up their Sean Green

as well in Joe Smith who is a righty side-armer with better results then Sean Green. You’re right that Heilman was a goner with less value to the Mets then others but he still was a decent chunk of getting the deal done. I agree that they didn’t hurt themselves with this deal but considering the uncertainty around how Putz will perform I have a tough time declaring a win for the Mets

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 10, 2008 11:12 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Meh

Joe Smith’s tRA+ the past two years were 99 and 101. Sean Green’s were 101 and 109. Weird, late season swoons aside, I think Green’s better, and is STILL seen – even by M’s fans – as completely fungible or as the guy from ‘Tuesdays with Sean Green.’

by marc w on Dec 11, 2008 12:50 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Asides from tRA+,

there’s also the issue that Joe Smith is very much a ROOGY: 643 OPS allowed to RHs, 881 OPS allowed to LHs. His ERA is boosted by the fact that he’s been kept away from LHs. And his struggles against LHs means that he has to be used carefully.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Dec 11, 2008 11:38 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Totally agree.

This is a GREAT deal for the Mets.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Dec 10, 2008 11:15 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, you can't.

But Heilman’s tRA+ last year was 70. He may very well be in the midst of a non-hypothetical collapse. He’ll be 30 next year.
Chavez is great defensively, but his trend in BRAA goes 5.3, -3.3, then -11.8. He’s going to be 31 next year.

Carp is quite different, but as a 22yo repeating AA, there are question marks to match each intriguing skill.

by marc w on Dec 11, 2008 12:54 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not sure why people here think Carp is interesting

He’s a unathletic guy with decent contact ability, a willingness to take walks, mediocre power who plays 1b / DH.

Back when there were rumours that the A’s were going to trade various players, Zito, Blanton, in various deals to the Metes, I compared Carp on AN to Dan Johnson. Still seems like a decent comp to me.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Dec 11, 2008 7:53 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Decent results in AA at a youngish age.

Nobody is flipping out over him, but he’s interesting.

by Matthew on Dec 11, 2008 10:28 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah I agree that he has decent results at AA at a youngish

age. IMO. that is the main hope. If he could at least play the OF, like Nick Evans, same age as Carp, similar minor league results in the same system, I would rate him more highly.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Dec 12, 2008 9:20 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also

Carp’s been legitimately awesome against RH his entire minor league career (.879 OPS against).

by JLC on Dec 11, 2008 11:02 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, and Dan Johnson's been much, much better

(1.009 OPS against).

Before Dave gets here to tell me I never look at ARL, Johnson was a college draftee who was in hi-A at age 22, though he did hit for more power at that age, and kicked ass in his first AA trial. In general, Carp’s got better patience, but’ll have to improve everything else to match Johnson’s performance.

by marc w on Dec 12, 2008 12:54 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In general, Dan Johnson has kicked ass everywhere except at the major league level

Where he’s had inexplicably low BABIP according to Fangraphs (.286 in ’05, 23.6 LD; .250 in ’06, 15.1 LD; .249 in ’07, 18.1 LD% and .176 in ’08 with a 15.8 LD%).

If you told me yesterday that we were picking up Dan Johnson for some inconsequential, I would’ve been ecstatic. But right now Johnson is getting old and isn’t very good with the glove. Earlier in his career, however, I felt he was a good prospect and a good future fit for us, should we ever try to make a deal with the A’s.

Basically, I don’t think it’s fair to diminish Carp’s performance by comparing him to a guy like Johnson, who has had better numbers than many minor league first baseman, but hasn’t managed to break a .290 BABIP at the MLB level for some reason.

by JLC on Dec 12, 2008 8:36 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That doesn't really qualify as "legitimately awesome."

But as noted, Carp’s young enough yet that he could become a pretty good player.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 12, 2008 7:21 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like this better then a deal for Joyce

I still have some faith that Lopez can stick at 2nd and if Valebuena isn’t going to be a legitimate shortstop then it doesn’t pain me too much of his loss despite the fact I like his his skill set and think players like him are fun to watch. Our major differences in the thoughts of the trade is I like Heilman better then you and you like Chavez better.

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 10, 2008 11:09 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If we kept Beltre

added Milton Bradley, and Fixed shortstop, how close would we be to competition?

by JI on Dec 10, 2008 11:12 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Probably pretty damn close

with an excellent defense but that has a huge covet, how do you fix shortstop realistically?

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Dec 10, 2008 11:13 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't you feel like Beltre will think twice about leaving now?

If that was something he seriously wanted anyway. Hopehopehopehope

by dpseadv on Dec 10, 2008 11:15 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And the understatement of the year award goes to...!
Well Today Wasn’t Boring

No shit?

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 10, 2008 11:16 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's also worth pointing out that Jack Z has totally screwed J.J. over.

By sending him into a position where he is guaranteed to be a set-up man at best, he is costing J.J. a shitton of money (provided Putz isn’t irreparably broken down in the first place and pitches well enough). Because I seriously suspect the Mets will decline to pick up the $9 million 2010 option on Putz’s contract (it would make him the highest paid set-up man in all of baseball), meaning he will hit the FA market in 2010 (2011 at the latest with “set-up man” on his resume.

Bill Bavasi probably never would have made this move for that reason alone – not wanting to screw J.J. by sending him into a bad situation. Bavasi was just that sort of guy, looking out for the best interests of his players. But then again, I suppose that’s one more reason Bill had to go.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Dec 10, 2008 11:18 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know if this us true, necessarily.

If J.J. pitches well, teams will still see him as a closer that just happened to be a hired gun for a desperate team. If he sucks, he wouldn’t have made a lot of money anyways.

by acblue on Dec 10, 2008 11:20 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Plus

it seems to me there’s a real chance — not >50, but >25, I’m thinking — that J.J. takes over as the closer at Shea some time this season due to ineffectiveness/injury on K-Rod’s part.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 11, 2008 7:11 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Carp's 2008

Some interesting numbers.

As a 1b: .338/ .448/ .520 in 198 AB
As a DH: .333/ .380/ .591 in 93 AB
As a LF: .238/ .350/ .359 in 181 AB

All the M’s have to do is keep him out of LF!

by seldom on Dec 10, 2008 11:26 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe... maybe... it will work out okay

and maybe it’s even all a good idea (regardless of how it works out)… but this feels like more than just a punch in the gut. I feel like throwing up right now.

I don’t know how anyone can be excited about his bag full of crusty bagels we got… but I’m sure they’ll seem appetizing someday.

by johnbai on Dec 10, 2008 11:27 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No offense taken... or "offence" even

This isn’t about evaluating talent, just about emotional attachment to players. And watching JJ close out a came at Safeco creates a much greater emotional bond to the player (just because of the atmosphere.) I was just surprised that someone who had witnessed that spectacle could not “fall in love” with JJ.

by johnbai on Dec 11, 2008 12:53 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

???

Schooler was the man. “School’s OUT for SUMMER” was a great intro song.

by johnbai on Dec 11, 2008 12:54 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Exactly my point.

When he was good he was so much fun. Alice Cooper blaring as he ran to the hill.

Then he hurt his arm and broke my heart. Now I take closers as a necessity, but I do not fall in love with them.

by Sec 108 on Dec 11, 2008 2:48 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The roads traveled are interesting.

John Huber got us Sean Green.
Randy Johnson got us Freddy Garcia who got us Jeremy Reed
Putz was our own drafted prospect turned bullpen arm turned ace by a supposed grip improvement on the splitfinger by Eddie Guardado.
Bob Engle brought us Luis Valbuena

All four have now brought us Gutierrez, Chavez, Heilman, Carp, Cleto, Carerra, and Vargas.

I wonder where we’ll go from here.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 10, 2008 11:37 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Indeed.

Add that link to the chain.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 10, 2008 11:39 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't we have Mike Morse still from the chain of Langston?

Jeff's guide to not looking stupid:
+/- is an absolutely terrible stat, so don't use it, and don't give up on young players before they turn 24.
54!

by joof on Dec 11, 2008 3:29 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ugh

Back that up. Green was begot from Aaron Taylor wasn’t he?

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 10, 2008 11:38 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

way late

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Dec 11, 2008 11:01 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Im pretty happy we got Cleto.

I was surprised he got thrown in there and called ‘some minor leaguer’. He has a pretty decent upside, and I thought we was gonna be part of a different deal the other day.

Thats a solid pickup. Too bad everyone will forget he exists until about 2012.

by Slica on Dec 10, 2008 11:50 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ive seen a few Mets fans and general baseball fans refer to Cleto as a potential

bigtime power arm in the bullpen. Obviously at 19 he could easily bust, but this guy isnt just a throw in.

by DarkLou on Dec 10, 2008 11:59 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Keith Law has a breakdown up. He seems to think nothing of Gutierrez, calls him

a plus defender with no clue at the plate (paraphrasing). Doesnt even include him in the list of primary guys the M’s got from the trade (he lists Heilman, Carp, and Cleto).

He does however say that Cleto if he develops his slider can be a dominant late inning reliever.

by DarkLou on Dec 11, 2008 12:04 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I didn't read him that way on Gutierrez

I think he underrates the guy’s glove (from what I see, he’s not a plus outfielder, he’s a plus-plus), but in general, he was just trying to give a quick summary description.

Also, if Law’s right that Valbuena has issues with conditioning, that may well explain why Zduriencik was so willing to move him.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 11, 2008 7:20 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cleto should be a starter for now. More details from my awesome brain.

The reason being that the Mets have pushed him the right way and helped him adapt quicker to his leagues and innings pitched. I would like to see if he can develop there first.

He is a power arm, and I could definitely see him in the bullpen…but I dont think they should switch him right now. The strikeouts will come soon, but right now he is blah in that department. His fastball has little movement, but he is consistently in the mid90s. His breaking pitches suck. I believe he has a bit of a cutter that is eh and sits around 90mph. His curveball is awful. Thing he needs to work on the most is his pitching mechanics. His motion needs to evolve and hopefully his pitches get some movement added with it. If he doesn’t fix the mechanics, he will never reach the MLB. With some work to at least be adequate, he could be useful from the pen. But his power, arm strength, age, and ability to adapt…he may learn quickly and become a good starter prospect. He definitely is an ‘attacker’ type.

Vargas I also know of, but he is what others have said…minor league filler. Although I follow the minors heavily, Carrera I dont remember too much about other than what others are saying. Juan Pierre with more pop. Sounds about right.

by Slica on Dec 11, 2008 12:22 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Franklin Gutierrez is fucking awesome

I can’t wait to watch him running down flyballs and taking away hits in center field..

Chavez/Gutz/Ichiro is such a huge upgrade defensively over Ibanez/Ichiro/Wilkerson. I really can’t add anything more, but I’m really excited that the team is finally making good moves.

by MFAN on Dec 11, 2008 1:24 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, but don't forget the defensive downgrade.

If Gutierrez could only just put up a season like Willie Harris’ last year for the Nationals — insane defense plus non-humiliating bat — he’ll be a massive upgrade. If both he and Chavez can do that, then look out Tokyo. But the most likely outcome is that both players continue their black hole of suck with the bat, Chavez is relegated to a mere defensive replacement, and the overall team improvement is nugatory.

Still, I approve of this trade by GMZ overall, as it exhibits a forward-thinking attitude and a willingness to unsentimentally sell a bargaining chip at the right time. I have real fears that Putz might be in the midst of a collapse (or at least significant downgrade) altogether, even if his second half was encouraging. I don’t think we’re ever going to see 2007 Putz again, though.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Dec 11, 2008 8:59 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here is a question:

What happens with Wlad?

DH w/spot start? Fulltime DH? Triple A again?

by Slica on Dec 11, 2008 1:26 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Platoon with Chavez? Maybe

Probably too early to speculate, a lot more things could go down before the seasons begins.

by MFAN on Dec 11, 2008 1:31 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That depends

on whether Zduriencik manages to land a LH power bat, which we know he still wants to do. My guess is that he does, and that Wlad is part of what we give up to do so.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 11, 2008 7:22 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know it is still unlikely and I dont want to scare anyone, but...

Zduriencik said the deal might make the Mariners look more appealing to the club’s major free agent, Raul Ibanez.

“We still need to replace Raul’s offense,” Zduriencik said. “I think the door is still open to Raul coming back here. I don’t think we’re out of the picture.”

-PI’s morning story.

by Slica on Dec 11, 2008 1:50 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Raul's chance of playing defense here have now plummeted to zero.

Raul ain’t coming back unless he has absolutely nowhere to go because coming back here means he won’t be making as much as he could and he’ll be exclusively DH-ing.

by ThundaPC on Dec 11, 2008 3:00 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Z mentioned him last night, too

and pointed out that he was likely to get a multi-year deal elsewhere (implying he wouldn’t, here)

by msb on Dec 11, 2008 8:34 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just trying to appease the general fanbase.

Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber

by Wilder. on Dec 11, 2008 7:47 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They're smart enough to read the blogs?

Screw you, Mariners. I'm back in football's loving arms. *edit: well, shit. This isn't going well.

by kevin_ess on Dec 11, 2008 8:30 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Raul on a reasonable deal would be a fine fit at DH.

Of course the problem is that he almost certainly won’t be available for a reasonable deal (years or $$) and would probably insist on playing the field, stubborn fella that he is.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Dec 11, 2008 9:02 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I LOVE Franklin Gutierrez.

I can’t believe Cleveland gave him up! Although they still have Ben Fransisco, who is basically the same type of player, but with more upside.

Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber

by Wilder. on Dec 11, 2008 7:28 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

False.

The majority of us kind of dislike BenFran and love Gutz. Francisco gets a lot of irrational love from the mainstream folks and we’ve had to irrationally shit on him a little to temper it. He’s not a good defender and I suspect he’ll never put up worthy starting numbers. I’d love to be wrong but I’d also love to trade him to a GM that thinks he’s an up-and-comer at the age of 27.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Dec 11, 2008 8:48 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, well this is good to know.

Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber

by Wilder. on Dec 11, 2008 9:58 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

plus, Ben Francisco makes you sing that song whenever he gets announced...

    Benn Francisco, open your golden gate
    You let no stranger wait outside your door.
    Ben Francisco, here is your wanderin’ one
    Saying “I’ll wander no more.”

by msb on Dec 11, 2008 10:13 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gutierrez >> Crisp on defense, <<<< with bat so far.

But he’s still youngish and who knows? Maybe he’ll figure something out.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Dec 11, 2008 9:03 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"<<<< with bat so far."

Have you looked at his numbers?

by Graham on Dec 11, 2008 9:05 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dammit, I hate it when a mod calls me on my BS

No, I haven’t. I’m just going on talk about his offensive rep that I’ve heard from here and BTF so far.

I suspect I look foolish.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Dec 11, 2008 9:06 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I've been poking around for the past 20 minutes or so.

He seemed to show at least some ability take a walk in the minors. His overall minor-league line is .282/.347/.462

His AAA line over 665 plate appearances: .284/.361/.436. I’m not sure what kind of hitter’s environment Buffalo is, though.

It looks like as he moved up the system, his OBP rose while his SLG dropped.

He’s going to strike out a lot, but I think a lot of people are underrating his bat (perhaps because he’s so awesome in the field . . . ). His skills haven’t translated into a very respectable MLB line, but it appears that the skills do exist.

I’m pretty much just talking to myself here, by the way.

by Teej on Dec 11, 2008 9:14 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

IIRC

Gutierrez had his batting approach changed on his way up the minors. They tried to shorten his swing. So less SLG I assume?

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Dec 11, 2008 9:16 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But what the hell?!

There goes Tuesday’s with Sean Green. Fuck this trade!

Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber

by Wilder. on Dec 11, 2008 7:31 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mondays with Morse.

Screw you, Mariners. I'm back in football's loving arms. *edit: well, shit. This isn't going well.

by kevin_ess on Dec 11, 2008 9:19 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm surprised that you believe Carp is decent defensively

Everything I’ve read, from BA, and from various Mets fans who have seen him play, indicate that he’s mediocre defensively.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Dec 11, 2008 7:57 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tuesdays with Aaron Heilman?

The Denker bus is now bound for San Diego. Those who were passengers on it are now angrily stranded at a gas station in Modesto, CA. Not much about baseball here .

by oldjacket on Dec 11, 2008 8:38 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm from LGT

And there is a very healthy population of us that have serious man crushes on Franklin. He’s a joy to watch run and dive and jump and cannon guys from the outfield. Occasionally he hits moonshots that make you believe in a solid offensive player hiding in there.

Overall we’re pretty happy with the Valbuena kid. It’s conceivable that we may just play him at second to start the year with Barfield and Carroll. I’d guess the more likely scenario is him starting in AAA. Which doesn’t do a LOT to address our MI situation but it’s better than nothing. If him and Asdrubal are turning amazing double plays by August I’ll be pretty happy.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Dec 11, 2008 8:52 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We would have liked to assimilate Chris Antonetti into our collective consciousness.

But so far, I have to say I’m pleased with Jack Unpronounceable Consonant Cluster.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Dec 11, 2008 9:05 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Indeed. But he had a pretty high BABIP and he didn't face many lefties.

Not that that explains the entirety of his great line, but he definitely had some luck and a lot of favorable matchups.

by Teej on Dec 11, 2008 9:30 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interesting.

StatCorner has his LD% at a little above average, though Fangraphs has it a few full percentage points higher.

by Teej on Dec 11, 2008 9:42 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mariners buying in bulk

That alone is a big change and puts a smile on my face. Add in a couple of draft picks after Raul hits the road, and the shelves are starting to get stocked again. It’s been awhile…

by glennpdx on Dec 11, 2008 9:28 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm still in shock, or should I say Thunderstruck. I am pleased with the trade, but sad to see JJ go.

Thanks for the write up Jeff. It was great. I never have enough time to look at all this stuff myself.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on Dec 11, 2008 9:31 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great article - Mets Fan

Awesome article man, we wish you guys the best. Carp was our replacement for Delgado, like you said, not a superstar but should be solid. And Endy, well he’s beloved.

[img]http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/10/20/sports/endychavez_blog.553.jpg[/img]

by Kraft4Prez on Dec 11, 2008 12:15 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.
Start posting about the Mariners »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Strip Club Cleared to Open Near Safeco Field

Recent FanPosts

Small
Want to go to tonights game in Boston?  Please?
Small
Top 5 IFA Guillermo Pimentel signs with the Mariners?
Clemente_small
OT 7/2/05-- Flag Waving, Long Weekend, 4th of July Holiday edition
Small
Open Sounders vs. Timbers gamethread
Small
Happy Canada Day
Durer2_small
Who will be heir to the King?
Eyebrows_small
OFFTOP 6/29/09 - Avoiding Work Edition
Dscn1856_small
USA vs. Brazil Game Thread
Small
Anyone meeting up in NYC?
Small
NHL Draft Open Thread

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini


Sexy People

Hms_surprise_small Graham

Small Matthew

Small Jeff

Official Partner of Yahoo! Sports