The Tigers May Be Run By Crazy People
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 10, 2008 6:53 PM PST
in Seattle Mariners News, Regular
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PrintThe Detroit Tigers are set to acquire right-hander Edwin Jackson from the Tampa Bay Rays for outfielder Matt Joyce, according to a major-league source.
All the standard stuff applies about this just being a rumor that has yet to go official, but considering it's stated so matter-of-factly, I lend it more credence, and oh my God Detroit what are you doing
Matt Joyce's name has come up a lot recently in Putz discussions. He's a 24 year old corner outfielder equipped with, at the very least, league-average defense and league-average offense. The former, though, may in actuality be quite a bit better than that, and he has enough upside to improve upon his standing in the latter as well. He's also under cheap team control for another five or six years.
In exchange for this nifty little player, the Tigers are getting a guy who sucks a lot. In 2007, Jackson's tRA ranked 122nd out of 129 qualified starting pitchers. In 2008, it ranked 110th out of 130. Everybody always talks about his awesome stuff, but all that awesome stuff has given him is a Major League career and wildly awful results, and while he may be able to put it together down the road, it's more likely that he just continues to be terrible until people stop giving him work.
A contract extension for Dontrelle Willis and a trade for Edwin Jackson. Congratulations, Detroit. You're retarded.
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Now they just need to cobble together a DH, and they're set.
Must be nice to know that the only problem you have left is the absolute easiest one to fix.
I can't believe teams still want Edwin Jackson
Look past the ERA God dammit!
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 10, 2008 7:06 PM PST up reply actions
R.J. just came in his pants.
Every day I hear about Seattle sports' failures. Every night I fall asleep to the sound of my own tears.
At the time I thought they were just taking him as a necessary throw-in
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 10, 2008 7:28 PM PST up reply actions
A couple years ago, when Dave said Willis was awful and might be out of baseball soon, I thought he was insane.
Learning is fun.
I repeated what Dave said to everyone I knew
and now they think I am brilliant
by JI on Dec 10, 2008 7:35 PM PST up reply actions
I was really careful broaching the subject with a friend, because we were/are big fans of the guy.
As a person, I love him. He’s always smiling and having fun, and he seems like a legitimately good guy (minus the DUI, but people do stupid shit). It was hard for me to accept that he might not be any good. He had won a bunch of games and had an awesome leg kick and tilted hat. He was really fun to play with in video games.
Reality sucks sometimes.
I thought Florida was forcing him on them
but then they extended him, so no
by JI on Dec 10, 2008 7:34 PM PST up reply actions
Edwin Jackson has amazing stuff.
It helped him strike out a lower percentage of batters than Andy Sonnanstine last year.
Great move by Tampa.
I would have liked Joyce, but dont we have the same player in Michael Saunders?
I personally like Saunders better by a decent margin
he has the age relative to league advantage and the better offensive speed at the very least. I haven’t seen Joyce play in real life that I can think of so I can’t comment on defensive difference. I also think Saunders could hit for average which I wouldn’t feel comfortable saying about Joyce
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
I don't think this is dumb on Detroit's part
Edwin had the 7th highest velocity in baseball among starters and everyone within ten spots of him except Johnny Cueto (who has some good skills but a giant homerun problem) had an above average tRA. Bet on velocity, he needs to work on his change-up but he is only 25, and his K/9 was almost a full K below his average. Matt Joyce is a Tweener outfielder with some skills and a strikeout problem. There is plenty of upside in this deal for Detroit
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
And there's massive downside in that he sucks.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 10, 2008 10:05 PM PST up reply actions
What downside?
if he sucks in the rotation then put him in the pen where his velocity will take a few ticks up and he becomes a middle reliever or closer with a fastball slider combo. What is Matt Joyce’s upside? Jason Bay because of his broad skill base will a lower batting average? what do you put the chance of that at 5%? I like this trade for the Tigers. But there isn’t a whole lot of downside for Tampa either because they don’t need Edwin in either role?
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
His downside is that his stuff never turns into results.
Matt Joyce is ~ league average. For another 5 years.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 10, 2008 10:48 PM PST up reply actions
Considering the state and age
of both Detroit’s Rotation and Bullpen I think that is a decent risk
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
It's overvaluing and acquiring bad pitchers that caused Detroit's rotation and pen to be in such a bad state
They paid for Jackson like that 4.42 ERA as a starter was real. It’s not.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 10, 2008 11:02 PM PST up reply actions
Like I said in the lower post
I think you are overvaluing Joyce considerably
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
And Edwin Jackson has been ~replacement level for the past two years.
And he’s under control for two fewer years than Joyce.
It’s always possible that Jackson figures it out, but Joyce seems to be a far better bet.
In Jackson, I have nightmares of Daniel Cabrera.
I don't agree
Joyce isn’t going to hit for average and if his glove doesn’t stick in center I don’t think his bat will cover a corner for a contender. I think he has limited upside and also doesn’t possess a particularly high floor. Pitchers don’t follow development curves the way hitters do and Jackson has a serious tool box with a lot of time to figure it out. I think everyone here is overrating Joyce’s value
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
Not really, no.
He’s 25, but he’s not a typical 25. He’s been at the top level for years and years, and baseball is littered with people who had good velocity but nothing else. This is a tremendous deal for Tampa.
Again ptichers don't follow age curves
and Jackson was dicked around heavily by the Dodgers which could have and likely did retard his development. Based on his past performance he is a good bet to gain some strikeouts back next year and like I said he has an arsenal at the very least to be a power reliever. Yes there is a chance he becomes Jason Grimsley or Jorge Julio but the upside is there
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
Um. Pitchers don't follow ageing curves now?
Their performance is completely divorced from their age?
by Graham MacAree on Dec 11, 2008 7:01 AM PST up reply actions
Absurd Extrapolation Fallacy
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
It's not an extrapolation if it's what you said.
Make your arguments better.
They’ll still be hilariously wrong, because two years of Edwin Jackson = paying millions for a steaming pile of crap.
by Graham MacAree on Dec 11, 2008 7:43 AM PST up reply actions
Provide evidence of this.
Nobody is going to give you the benefit of the doubt and believe you just because you say it, especially when three people who happen to devote a good portion of their time to pitching analysis completely disagree with you.
Edwin Jackson has some good velocity, yes, but that hasn’t transformed into results of any kind. He’s been exceedingly wild his whole career and while 2008 was a minor step forward, his control is still poor. His ground ball rate dropped precipitously in 2008 and for all that velocity, he’s never been exceptional at missing bats and he even dropped to below average in that regard in 2008. His realistic upside might be that of a league average RP or quasi-replacement level SP. Sure, his absolute ceiling is higher than that of Joyce’s, but his odds of reaching that are exceedingly minimal and his 2007 and 2008 combined point to him being about replacement level. That is, a 0 win player.
Joyce meanwhile has a great (albeit small sample) defensive mark with an above average bat. If he repeats his 2008, he’s +20 runs with the bat, +10 with the glove, -5 for the position and +20 for replacement. That’s a 4.5 win player. At 24. He probably will not get all the way there, but even Marcel says he’s over +10 with the bat next year.
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