Please Don't Hate Me....
by baetown415 on Dec 10, 2008 1:36 PM PST
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I'm not a Mariners fan, though I do like some of the guys on the team (King Felix, Ichiro, and Beltre mainly) and the blogo-personalities of Dave Cameron, DMZ, Graham, and the gang here at LL. Because the people here are pretty knowledgable regarding how good their players are, I was wondering if you could help me out.
Over at the McCovey Chronicles blog (your SF Giants sister/brother blog), there has been much discussion about trying to find a third baseman. One of the many names that keeps reappearing is Adrian Beltre. Now, some of the people over there think that he's Pedro Feliz with better OBP. I disagree with that, because: a) OBP is important, and b) Beltre puts up better OBP's than Feliz. By far. And in a better league.
I'm (ok Marcel is) projecting Beltre to be at exactly league average with the bat. Add in 1.0 win (conservatively) on defense, .25 wins for position adjustment, 2.50 wins for AL replacement level, and I have Beltre as a 3.75 WAR player for 2009. That's a pretty good player there.
Now, my question to you all is this: should the Giants decide to pursue Beltre, what kind of package would you like to see in return? There are obvious players that are off-limits, whether because they can't be traded yet (Buster Posey, Conor Gillaspie, Rafael Rodriguez), are pretty much untouchable (Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, Pablo Sandoval, Angel Villalona, Nick Noonan), or taking the guys wouldn't make sense for a rebuilding team (Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn, Bengie Molina).
My initial guess is that Jonathan Sanchez would have to be the key guy in the deal. The M's would probably want to add a young(ish) corner OF, so I'm guessing either Nate Schierholtz or Fred Lewis (a personal favorite) would be desirous. And since you all are so eager to get rid of Yuni, maybe the Giants could throw in Ivan Ochoa or Manny Burriss for if/when that happens (though both might not even be replacement-level and are probably worse than Yuni). Henry Sosa might also be a wanted guy, with his live arm and high K ability, albeit with poor control and the potential lingering effects of this season's injury. I ultimately see him as a high-leverage reliever instead of a potential #3 starter, but I think I'm in the minority on that one.
So what do you all think? Sanchez, Schierholtz/Lewis, and Ochoa/Burriss for Beltre? Or should I just leave this site forever?
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Holy Jesus yes I'd trade Beltre for Johnathan Sanchez
You have to remember that Beltre’s skillset gets murdered by Safeco Field, put him in SBC (which is much more friendly to right handed batters) and I wouldn’t be surprised by a .275/.330/.500 season.
Ben Sheets is only being offered two years? GO GO GO
I think it'd take Noonan.
Along with Sanchez.
Zduriencik will not give Beltre away.
This signature space for rent.
I think you mean More Bocock
Ben Sheets is only being offered two years? GO GO GO
by JI on Dec 10, 2008 2:00 PM PST up reply actions
My Dad used to do business with Nate Schierholtz's Dad, so I wouldn't mind seeing him+Sanchez+B- prospect
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
If for some reason that happened I'd just bring you, Dave, DMZ, Matthew, and Graham on board as the official decision makers
I’d just be a figurehead and you guys would make all the decisions
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
My dad treated John Olerud after his aneurysm. Doesn't mean I'd sign him right now,
Can't wait for Ruskell to knock this one out of the park.
Yes, give us Timmy and Cain.
Oh fuck you. Get out of work? Do what i do and piss your pantalones. Ain’t no one going to fuck with you when you piss your pants. -- kevin_ess, winebibber
Sanchez would be an excellent centerpiece
I would think long and hard about being able to get him and Lewis (and more?) for Beltre.
Sanchez and Lewis would do it for me.
At first I was thinking just Lewis and change, but that’s probably not enough.
You'd have to think long and hard?
About getting a +2 win OF and a +2.5 win LHP, neither of whom is even arb eligible and will make about $1 mil combined next year, in return for one year of Beltre at $13 million?
I love Adrian as much as anyone, but Sanchez + Lewis is a ridiculous haul.
by davidcameron on Dec 10, 2008 2:12 PM PST up reply actions
How does Lewis score in +/-?
His UZR and PMR say two different things, and until I have a clear picture of his defense I’m not quite sure how highly I think of him. But yes, after thinking long and hard, I’d take the deal.
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 10, 2008 2:20 PM PST up reply actions
SSS
But in ~1260 Innings in the corners over the past 3 (mainly past 2) seasons, Lewis is +12 (enhanced).
~320 innings in 2007: 6 (4 left, 2 right)
~925 innings in 2008: +6 (6 left, 0 right)
Chone has him projected as +1 in the corner for 2009.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
That's what I was wondering
If Lewis is average or plus in CF, that’s huge. But if he’s average or plus at the corners, he’s still good but obviously not as exciting. I’m also wondering about Schierholtz’ defense since I’ve heard he’s not great with the glove, but UZR likes him (albeit small sample size).
I’d be happy with Sanchez + Lewis + surplus of Giants’ 2B depth
Velez, Burriss, Ochoa, Denker, Frandsen
We don’t have a huge need, but if we could move one of those five around to third base or move Lopez to 3B, it makes it even sweeter for us. And naturally some of those five are much more unlikely to be traded than the others in the list. But I am greedy by nature.
1. No more Denker :-(
2. Those other guys aren’t very good. It’s unlikely that any of them would be over 0.5 WAR over a full season.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
I see
That would make sense. I just usually associate “depth” with “logjam of capable players”
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
The way things have been around here lately
we’ve dropped “capable” from the definition . . .
by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 10, 2008 2:50 PM PST up reply actions
I now live in the Bay Area and enjoy Telephone Company Park, and it I would nice to see Beltre moved to San Francisco, (just so I could see call to first in person)
but it would have to be Schierholtz/Lewis +, just because I love the M’s more.
I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.
Maybe not completely
But definitely in regard to a trade for Beltre
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
Why would SF trade
4 years of Sanchez for 1 year of Beltre? I can’t imagine them doing that deal straight up
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
Because pitchers with 1 1/2 plus pitches and iffy control usually get doubters…
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
I guess what I'm saying is
if you are dead set on pawning off Sanchez, don’t you think you can do better than one expensive year of Beltre? I sure do
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
If Sabean is really thinking seriously about trading Sanchez (with him as the centerpiece), I don’t really see any other better (realistic) options for a 3B trade.
One of the guys at our site has the idea of signing Joe Crede to a 1 yr deal to split time with Pablo Sandoval (who will split time between 3B and C). I’d actually prefer this route.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
Then you don't sell Sanchez for a 3B
“Because pitchers with 1 1/2 plus pitches and iff control usually get doubters”
Another way to say that, if one were attempting to look at the positive, is that 25 year old lefty starters that K a guy an inning over their first 250 major league innings are pretty valuable. Oliver Perez walks 5 guys per 9 innings and is asking for 5 yrs 70 million.
Young power lefty starters have a lot of value in the baseball. Moving them for a one year rental 3B is crazy. Especially if you aren’t competing that year
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
Perez isn’t exactly the best example to use, since the guy’s past and projected performance is worth way less than what he’s looking for.
I’m also not saying that Sabean SHOULD take this route. I’m asking, IF Sabean does take this route (i.e. trading Sanchez for a 3B), Beltre would be the best option.
I also don’t really see the Giants contending in 2009 for the playoffs unless they shore up the back of their rotation or the D’Backs and Dodgers can’t fill their holes.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
Just for giggles
Sanchez’s name has been tossed around some on LoneStarBall, the Rangers SBN site. Rangers have Blalock for 1 year at half the price of Beltre, and are pitching starved as always. Propose this question on LSB with Sanchez for Blalock straight up and you’d have takers galore. The consensus on that board is Sanchez is quite a bit more expensive than Blalock.
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
I’ll be damned if Sabean trades Sanchez for Blalock. I couldn’t believe that was even being discussed. Then again, Edwin Encarnacion and Jorge Cantu have also been mentioned. I guess a lot of people still prefer good-decent hit/ poor glove third basemen over decent-average hit/great glove third basemen.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
Neither works well for SF
because you only control them for 1 year. If you trade Sanchez, you better be getting back young, cheap, quality players.
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
Yeah, well I have no idea what to expect from Sabean. I’d like to see Sanchez harness and refine his stuff and turn into a #2-caliber pitcher, but I’m not sure that’s likely. I also agree with your point about getting young quality players if Sabean trades Sanchez, but I don’t know if the Rangers would give up enough of those guys. Obviously, Blalock doesn’t count.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
I think it bears mentioning that Beltre is a pretty good lock to be a Type A FA at the end of 2009.
If you can’t re-sign him, you’re getting two draft picks. It’s similar to the A’s situation with Holliday.
This too
Although prospects have more value than draft picks
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
Is he?
If so, that is definitely worth mentioning. That raises his value from the M’s perspective, as they can always hold out and get 2 young quality first rounders. Sanchez + it is…
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
Adrian Beltre was a Type A this year, but just barely.
Robinson Cano was the only Type A player ranked below Adrian. So it’s definitely possible he’ll be a Type A, but nothing close to a lock.
Hmm, I guess I shouldn't be too surprised by that.
But on the other hand, he would be moving to the NL, and the talent at 2B, 3B, and SS in that league should be low enough to secure him as a Type A. I can’t find the Elias player rankings for 2008, but Tad Iguchi was Type A for 2007, so….
Beltre >>>> Blalock
obviously. But you’re talking about paying more for Beltre, as opposed to receiving more with Blalock + prospects. I don’t think either deal is very likely, considering the Giants NEED to be thinking long term, but after Zito and Rowand nothing would surprise me
"Holland didn’t make that kid question his swing, he made him question his career path"
Like 2 years ago Sanchez was pitching horribly out of the Giants' bullpen
Not that I believe the Giants still see him as that low in value, but I don’t think they’re expecting Sanchez to be much more than a 4th starter at best.
What about Henry Sosa for Beltre? Sanchez is way too much to give up.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
You mean Sosa, Nate and Manny B, or something like that?
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
No, just Sosa.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
baetown415 this might be worth showing all the Beltre haters at your blog
Beyond the Boxscore did a pretty good job with this writeup at the end of the year.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/31/649202/best-third-basemen-of-2008
That and he had a torn ligament in his thumb all last year.
Some of the haters just don’t care about the numbers and projections and whatnot. I guess watching the Giants play last season has some people clamoring for home runs, as if that’s the biggest problem the Giants have.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
It takes some indoctrination to appreciate the defense.
LL and USS Mariner have been beating it into our heads for a while.
A straight-up swap of Sanchez and Beltre would be nuts for the Giants.
What Sanchez represents to the Giants: A pitcher with a 5% chance of being an ace while under contract control for the next four years, a 20% chance of being an above-average starter, a 25% chance of being an average starter, and a 50% chance of flaming out.
What Beltre represents to the Giants: A position player who will give the Giants about three extra wins over what they can expect from an Ishikawa/Phelps-platoon at first, which is what would be displaced by a Beltre acquisition. Though those two extra wins might be the difference between 90 and 93 wins and a playoff berth, it is far more likely that they’d be the difference between 75 and 78.
Then Beltre walks, and because the Giants are terrified of a $14M+ arbitration award, they don’t even get the compensation picks.
On the other hand, the Mariners should want something like Sanchez or Lewis back for Beltre, who’s a damn good player. They shouldn’t have to settle for a Dewon Brazelton/Brien Taylor combo package. The Giants and M’s don’t match up as trade partners.
The Giants would be terrified of a 14M arb award and they employ Barry Zito and went after Sabathia?
Sounds like the Diamondbacks
Ben Sheets is only being offered two years? GO GO GO
by JI on Dec 10, 2008 4:31 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, because the Barry Zito contract left such a good taste in their mouths, they don’t really worry if they’re overpaying players anymore.
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 10, 2008 4:43 PM PST up reply actions
I think a lot of the “Let’s get Beltre”-sentiment on McC presumes that Bavasi is still the person who signs off/drools on deals. I know I was guilty of it when pushing for a fictional Jeff Clement/Matt Morris swap.
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 10, 2008 4:56 PM PST up reply actions
But my best writing is when I get flowery and complimentary. The Clash’s best album wasn’t “London Calling”, but rather their four-part prog-rock opus, “Adventures (or Misadventures) of the Lakefire Wyvern.” They just didn’t get the chance to write it or share it with us.
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 10, 2008 5:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
So I guess
I’m done with the Sanchez-for-Beltre idea. Good points by all, although I still think Sanchez has less than 1% chance of being an ace.
It was good to flesh this scenario out over here. Thanks everyone.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
Give me a player that makes watching someone horrible at 3rd (in the short term) worth it in the long term.
If I have to watch a -1 third baseman for 2009. I want to at least say “This will be worth it once that kid from AAA gets here”.
If we have to stay in house for 3B for 2009. Beltre leaving (and Betancourt at SS) creates a big hole.
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