Jose Lopez's Defense

by Jeff on Nov 7, 2008 11:29 AM PST in The More You Know

While Lopez's bat this past season finally started to resemble the one people have expected him to show for so long, all year questions were raised about his performance in the field. There seemed to be a growing consensus that his combination of size, mental mistakes, and perceived effort issues was finally catching up to him and making him a problem at second base. Lopez's defense, some have said, was bad enough that it negated a significant chunk of his offensive improvement.

As it turns out, there's no statistical indication of a collapse. While as always I will concede that the numbers may be wrong, the evidence is pretty solid that Lopez was perfectly adequate with the glove.

RZR: average
OOZ: above-average
PMR: average
UZR: no sign of being horrible
+/-: neither one of the top nor one of the bottom second basemen
Overall team stats: Mariners weak to bad, but not extraordinarily so despite known glaring problems in Sexson, Yuni, and Ibanez

I'm not going to sit here and claim that Lopez hasn't gotten any worse. He probably has. Nearly every player's defense gets worse as he ages. But there's a difference between "declined" and "big giant suck", and the burden of proof is on those that say he's no good, because I'm not convinced. This team may have more problems than Ezequiel Astacio's complexion, but I'm not yet ready to believe that Jose Lopez is one of them.

Yuni is though. Yuni blows.

edit: I should add however that I'm all about dealing Lopez if a good offer comes along. Just because I think he's useful doesn't mean he shouldn't also be trade bait.

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There's still a good chance that this is the best opportunity we'll get to sell high on him.

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 11:54 AM PST 0 recs

If Valbuena keeps on hitting I don't see why not

by Jeff on Nov 7, 2008 11:59 AM PST up 0 recs

Does Valbuena have the range for SS?

I thought one of the blogs talked about that possible conversion, but I can’t remember which it was now. How much better would this team be just putting Valbuena at SS and keeping Lopez at 2nd?

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Nov 7, 2008 12:03 PM PST up 0 recs

In the short term, perhaps better

He doesn’t have any experience, but it’s conceivable he would suck less than Yuni.

My guess is that if he’s stuck at second it’s because the M’s don’t see Yuni as a problem or it’s because he hasn’t got the arm.

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 12:05 PM PST up 0 recs

In theory I think Valbuena could make the switch but realistically I don't see it happening

To answer your question, Yuni is a ~0.5-1 WAR player. If Valbuena is a league-average defender at SS, he’d have to put up a wOBA of ~.305-.315 to match Yuni. In other words, if Luis Valbuena hit like Jose Castillo, he’d be about as good as Yuni. If he hit like, I dunno, last year’s Mark Ellis, he’d be a 0.5-1 win improvement.

by Jeff on Nov 7, 2008 1:27 PM PST up 0 recs

I wanna get rid of Yuni and Lopez because this team needs a change of face

and what better way to do that then by getting rid of the two lazy hackers.

I repeat, if you can pull of a deal where you trade Lopez and get better defensively, or you get more on base ability, you do it even if the net value is the same.

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 12:07 PM PST up 0 recs

It's only selling high if you think he overperformed this season.

by Matthew on Nov 7, 2008 12:09 PM PST up 0 recs

I think it's more that people feel this is his peak

and it’s only downhill from here. Kinda like Yuni’s 2007.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 7, 2008 12:11 PM PST up 0 recs

His defense will probably be worse

from here on out.

I’m paranoid that he’s going to collaspe because he has such a bad approach at the plate and his motivation has always been somewhat questionable

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 12:11 PM PST up 0 recs

He took more pitches this year than ever before,

made contact more often than ever before, hit more line drives than ever before and more home runs than ever before.

Sure, it’s possible he gets worse, but those are all encouraging.

by Matthew on Nov 7, 2008 12:13 PM PST up 0 recs

Even if he hits a little better, his defense will almost surely get worse.

I’m not saying drop him at all costs, since (apparently) we’re not trying to win in 2009, we might as well see if he’s overvalued on the market due to his power and contact.

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 12:18 PM PST up 0 recs

I'm not sure he is, though.

“Decent hitter at premium defensive position, adequate defense, going into his age 25 season, might have some growth potential, priced reasonably through his arb years” is exactly the kind of player you should be acquiring if you’re the Mariners.

But hey, if trading Lopez fixes the black hole at SS defense, and Valbuena worked out OK, I could see a deal involving Lopez being one of those “helps both teams” scenarios. I’m not OPPOSED to trading the guy on all accounts- I just don’t think he’s the problem, any more than Ichiro is.

by eponymous_coward on Nov 7, 2008 2:34 PM PST up 0 recs

Ideally I'd like an everyday center fielder

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 3:13 PM PST up 0 recs

That'd work, too.

I’m not entirely sure we can expect an everyday CF in return for Loafie, though I’d be happy to be proven wrong.

by eponymous_coward on Nov 7, 2008 9:02 PM PST up 0 recs

Yuni was better towards the end of the year!

by Fogel on Nov 7, 2008 11:55 AM PST 0 recs

The second half of The Final Sacrifice

is far more entertaining than the first half.

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 12:09 PM PST up 0 recs

there's a second half?

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 7, 2008 12:12 PM PST up 0 recs

The last 50% of the movie?

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 12:13 PM PST up 0 recs

Richie being gone helped?

While it doesn’t solve his range problem, I’ve always wondered if Yuni’s throwing problems could be attributed to the guy receiving the ball at first. Seemed to throw the ball better when there was a, well, better target (ability-wise) to throw to at first…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Nov 7, 2008 12:57 PM PST up 0 recs

Except Richie Sexson's one useful defensive skill is his ability to receive throws.

by Graham on Nov 7, 2008 1:40 PM PST up 0 recs

Due only to his height.

Indie.

by Taylor H on Nov 7, 2008 1:40 PM PST up 0 recs

Who gives a flying fuck?

It’s still real.

by Graham on Nov 7, 2008 1:41 PM PST up 0 recs

Only due to it's being true.

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 1:47 PM PST up 0 recs

Sure.

I still laugh at Boonie’s comment at FanFest 2005 — along the lines of “ANYONE who overthrows Richie has a problem.”

But it never ceased to amaze me how often Yuni did just that. When a normal-sized fielder was at first, it seemed Yuni’s throws were much more accurate.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Nov 7, 2008 4:14 PM PST up 0 recs

I didn't think he looked too bad this year...my eye isn't a scout's eye by any means but pretty much sitting behind him all summer, it didn't look like he was killing us.

I thought he was goodish in 2006 or 2007 (can’t remember which) according to a lot of advanced metrics. It seems to me that if his defense was worse this year (which it appears that there is no solid evidence for this) bounceback wouldn’t be out of the question given his past and how young he is.

I’ve long thought that if we should trade one of the double play twins it should be Yuni, not Jose. The average D, .300/.330/.450 bat seems more valuable to me than the terrible D, .280/.300/.380 bat….seems simple enough.

Good post

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Nov 7, 2008 11:55 AM PST 0 recs

Agreed, but I'd like to trade both if I can get value.

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 12:12 PM PST up 0 recs

It's also exciting to see +/- think so highly of JJ Hardy...

He’s +19! And he’s on the trading block! And our GM used to work in that organization! Maybe we should try to swing a 3 or 4 for 2 trade and snag Hardy and Brad Nelson…but Hardy is pretty much just my pipe dream for this offseason.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Nov 7, 2008 11:58 AM PST 0 recs

What do we have to offer aside from catch and throw backstops?

Feierabend?

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 7, 2008 12:09 PM PST up 0 recs

Clement!

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 12:13 PM PST up 0 recs

Right, he's the catch and throw backstop

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 7, 2008 12:13 PM PST up 0 recs

OK that was a joke

but even if we want to send Clement away who will be the other 3? Rob Johnson…. Wlad? I dunno. We just don’t have that much to offer right now unless it’s the pieces we need to be clinging to. The Bedard trade is the gift that keeps on kicking the organization in the nuts. Thanks, Bill.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 7, 2008 12:17 PM PST up 0 recs

Hardy's a star.

I don’t think you get Hardy unless the Brewers think Clement can catch everyday. Also, I dunno what his contract staus is like, but my guess is there’s a good chance that he’d be a FA before we’re ready to compete again.

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 12:20 PM PST up 0 recs

Tui, Moore, they were interested in Washburn last year when they thought they might not get CC

Maybe Pineda or Ramirez or something

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Nov 7, 2008 12:29 PM PST up 0 recs

I think where that club is

they’d be looking for immediate contributors to the team, and only Washburn would be that on that list. They need catching, so JI is right, in that if they think Clement can catch they may like him well enough despite his poor 08 campaign. I’m just thinking they’re going to want someone to help them get to the playoffs again, not just to restock the farm, and that’s where we fail.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 7, 2008 1:00 PM PST up 0 recs

I'm not saying a straight up deal is possible

I just think he’d be the key player

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 1:11 PM PST up 0 recs

Addition by Subtraction

They’re looking to get Alcides Escobar into the starting lineup. For Hardy, they get a Major League starter, and a few good prospects. Plus they get their star prospect into the lineup. Makes sense to me.

Nelson is less valuable than Ryan Shealy, and the Royals essentially got Ryan Shealy for free…so I wouldn’t be concerned with what to add to that deal to get them to throw Nelson in.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Nov 7, 2008 1:54 PM PST up 0 recs

Have they considered, at all, moving Hardy or Escobar to 2B and Weeks to CF?

I’m just not sure Hardy’s going to return as much as he should. Cameron probably would, however.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 7, 2008 2:25 PM PST up 0 recs

The validation I crave:

# Dave on November 7th, 2008 12:27 pm

See, this is why I’ve not been willing to toss Lopez off the team lightly; the guy is an above-average MLB hitter at age 24…

That’s a crazy thing to say. Lopez’s RV/600 by season:

-14, -11, -5, -24, +4

So, we’ve got bad, bad, slightly below average, awful, and slightly above average. From that, you’re concluding that he’s an above average hitter?

Can we stop focusing on 2008 exclusively, please? He’s been an above average major league hitter once in five years, and he was one of the worst hitters in baseball two years ago.

Marcel has him at .279/.320/.416 for 2009, a not-so-nifty .320 wOBA, which makes him about 12 runs worse than an average hitter. And Marcel factors in aging curves, so let’s lay off the "he’s just 24″ stuff, okay?

Jose Lopez isn’t very good. Trading him now is the smart move.

…even if I think Dave is a bit too down on him.

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 12:50 PM PST 0 recs

One's position on Lopez depends primarily on his interpretation of Lopez's offensive improvement

If you believe Lopez made sustainable gains, he’s an asset. If you believe he’s going to regress, he becomes more of an issue.

I’m all for trading Jose Lopez while his value is high. If we’re committed to rebuilding, it’s a good idea. But I don’t think he’s bad. His offensive indicators are positive almost across the board.

by Jeff on Nov 7, 2008 1:44 PM PST up 0 recs

Oddly enough, I am as well.

Yes, I like Jose Lopez a lot more than Dave does, apparently.

He needs to be treated as a valuable asset (which I believe I said). That does not mean you don’t trade valuable assets, if you think you can improve the team. I’m not about to make the guy untouchable.

For one thing, this team desperately needs a decent glove/adequate bat at SS. If Lopez brought someone like that back, great, fine.

My problem is I’m very skeptical that Yuni is a valuable asset EITHER at 2B or SS. I think at best, he’ll be OK at 2B while being his usual .310/.400 hitting self, which isn’t very good. At worst, he keeps hitting into double plays, is pretty bad at 2B or short, and he’s terrible. So IMO, Yuni’s the problem you fix first.

by eponymous_coward on Nov 7, 2008 2:16 PM PST up 0 recs

Also:

I don’t think Loafie has topped out offensively yet.

I’m not going to turn him into Miguel Tejada yet, but going from 40 2B/15 HR to 30 2B/25 HR is a pretty normal aging pattern that could happen to Lopez as soon as next year, or certainly before he becomes a FA. The thing is that once Lopez does that, if it happens BEFORE he hits the FA market, he becomes very valuable, because, as we all know, power is severely overpriced there.

If Lopez ends up hitting .290/25/90 next year, you could get quite a lot back for him- that might be the time to play Billy Beane and get some team to back up a truck full of arms and position playing prospects.

by eponymous_coward on Nov 7, 2008 2:24 PM PST up 0 recs

Wasn't it two years ago that he made the All-Star team?

Indie.

by Taylor H on Nov 7, 2008 1:47 PM PST up 0 recs

wasn't it six years ago that Mike Williams made the all star team?

by JI on Nov 7, 2008 1:48 PM PST up 0 recs

Don't forget STATS zone rating as a system.

Available at both ESPN and CNNSI, I believe.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 7, 2008 1:43 PM PST 0 recs

I feel like after McLaren left and Riggleman took over, team defense as a whole got a lot better.

I know McLaren let the players not take fielding practice if they didn’t want to, while Riggleman insisted they did, which could account for it. It just seems everyone performed much better at defense in the second half, excluding maybe Raul, and even he seemed to at the very least make less Giffable plays in the second half of the season. (Note that I have nothing to back this up, excepting my perceptions of the season)

Anyways, while I’d not be adverse to trading Yuni and Lopez for a decent haul, I’d still be willing to give them both another year to see how they pan out. If Lopez can repeat his offensive performance while staying average at defense, I’d have to think that he’d be a pretty valuable player. And with Yuni making plays at the end of last year, I’d be willing to see if his defense regressed to above average again.

Out of the two, I’d definitely think Yuni is way more important to trade, while Lopez is more likely to be an asset with more value going forward.

54!

by joof on Nov 7, 2008 3:11 PM PST 0 recs

Sexson left and Reed played more in the second half.

Those are two huge reasons the defense improved.

by Matthew on Nov 7, 2008 3:15 PM PST up 0 recs

Lopez is not the player the mariners need to be trading

Sure…he’s probably average at best for a 2B. He’s cheap so that’s ok. Does he really have that much trade value right now out there? He has still yet to put together an amazing season.

I find it hard to believe that his defense is much below average right now (no matter what USSM says). I also think its difficult to say that his defense will slip farther than his offense will improve. He is looking like he’s starting to put things together behind the plate. Hold onto him. He’s inexpensive and under contract for a while. There isn’t any other better replacement in house. He’s not a sure thing but I think he is worth more than what you could get in a trade.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 7, 2008 11:13 PM PST 0 recs

I think you guys are being way too hard on lopez

Lets consider some important facts:

-he’ll be just 25 for the entire 2009 season

-3 full years under his belt already

-his bad 2007 can be chalked up to a personal tragic loss…his brother died very early during the season and this alone guarantees he sucks moving forward that season

-he doesn’t strike out a whole lot

-41 doubles last year says there is power in his bat

Considering his age, experience and lack of whiffs, why can’t he make a move to the next offensive level and become a 2nd tier hitter among all second baseman?

Wouldn’t you be happy with 23 homers, 95 rbi, 95 runs and league average defense?

Everything points to the very real possibility he could do this.

by tuna411 on Nov 10, 2008 9:02 PM PST 0 recs