Survey Says Defense Important, Beltre Good At It
The 2008 Fielding Bible Awards came out a little while ago, and if you haven't seen them by now, you probably just did. The FBAs are determined by a panel of ten experts who (edit: may or may not) know more than you do so shut up, and while everybody and his mother have their own questions and concerns when it comes to defensive evaluation, the FBAs and the underlying +/- are solid, and
Third Base – Adrian Beltre, Seattle
It was a runaway victory for Adrian Beltre. Beltre won the award two years ago in the closest vote we’ve ever had (the tiebreaker was invoked) but this year his 36-point margin of victory, 90 points compared to 64 points for second-place finisher Evan Longoria, was the second largest margin of victory in this year’s voting.
However unconventional the means, Adrian Beltre is a star. He's an above-average hitter who is by every decent measure one of, if not the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Of all the reasons why we love the guy to death, this is the most significant: he's a freaking hell of a player.
I think we have enough evidence to say that Beltre's a ~+15 run defensive third baseman. Okay, so it's more like +10 < x < +20, but for the sake of simplicity, just stay with me for a minute. Beltre has hit .266/.319/.454 in his time as a Mariner, with ~+15 defense. If you have trouble visualizing that, it's worth the same as a guy who hit .278/.339/.506 with +0 defense. .278/.339/.506, in Safeco Field. Beltre's defense has been worth the equivalent of about 70 OPS points a season. That's huge. Yeah, it'd be nice if he didn't swing himself into embarrassing strikeouts so often, but everybody short of Albert Pujols has a flaw, and in the end the only thing that matters is the overall package. Beltre's is excellent. While it might be sexier if he added some offense at the expense of his defense, it wouldn't actually make the team any better, and picking on Beltre for his one shortcoming is like picking on Ichiro for hitting too many singles. Quit looking for perfection and start appreciating greatness.*
Other things of note, regarding the Fielding Bible Awards and defense in general:
- By +/-, Casey Kotchman has been the second-best defensive first baseman in baseball since 2006, coming in at 42 plays above average.
- Albert Pujols is #1, with double that.
- Franklin Gutierrez is a titan in the corner outfield. Despite not yet having played a full season, +/- has him as the best LF/RF of the past three years, and what's more is that UZR pretty much agrees with this conclusion. You wouldn't think that a .690 OPS would work very well out of a corner, but there you go. If I were a GM, and one day I got bored of routine and wanted to spice things up, I'd collect a whole shitload of guys like Gutierrez and try to keep my pitching staff under 550 runs. It might not work out, but I'd have fun, and that's really all I care about in my hypothetical since I would've probably already won like ten championships by then.
- The only way Chase Utley will ever get the respect he deserves is if he personally kills Ryan Howard.
- The Brewers picked up Mike Cameron's $10m 2009 option. This is going to go down as one of the best moves of the offseason, although nothing's ever going to top the deal the A's got with Mark Ellis. Billy Beane is going to watch the Orlando Hudson negotiations and laugh, and laugh.
- The Royals went out of their way to trade for Mike Jacobs the other day. Given his horrible, horrible defense, Jacobs is essentially a replacement-level player, a no-glove bat without a very good bat. Leo Nunez isn't really much of a prize, but a young reliever who hits the low 90s is more valuable than a guy who sucks, and I'm beginning to wonder if Dayton Moore actually has a clue what he's doing.
* the same goes for whoever ends up cheering for him next September
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Wait, what?
“The FBAs are determined by a panel of ten experts who know more than you do so shut up”
Judging by the online ballots, Mike Murphy is an expert in fielding in the same way that Michael Kay expertly assesses the value of Derek Jeter. Similarly, I love Joe Poz’s writing, but why is he qualified to judge fielding over, say, Chris Dial? I suppose that I don’t really get the point of it: if you have a system as good as +/- is supposed to be, what do the opinions of Poz, Murphy, et. all really add?
Okay so not all of them are experts
I really just like the +/- and Tango fan results.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 5, 2008 9:50 AM PST up reply actions
It would be fun to see how many deciples you could round up.
by JI on Nov 5, 2008 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
All you need is a registration table, a pitcher of kool-aid, and some matching nikes
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
You could always, and I'm just thinking out loud here, find things that you don't agree on
Such beasts must exist.
I think Duvel is a 9, whereas Matthew thinks it's an 8
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 5, 2008 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
To be fair,
I grade on a tougher curve, so we agree on the relative grades.
Fine, but you're still disagreeing on how tough to make the curve.
It’s something.
Hell, maybe Graham thinks its just above average or something. We can build on this.
Also Duvel holds a sentimental value to me
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 5, 2008 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
I firmed up my hatred of Bay Area Hippie Tech Douchebags
while drinking Duvel; it holds sentimental value to me as well.
Another thought
It’d be interesting to do something like this using only data inputs. So you keep the panel format but split it between, say, +/-, UZR, PMR, RZR, and a handful of other systems.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 5, 2008 11:10 AM PST up reply actions
Yes it would. You have access to all the delicious proprietary ones?
If you could get all the data from +/- (not just the fielding bible awards), the Cleveland Indians’ deal that Antonetti runs, plus others that I’m not aware of – then put ‘em together with RZR/PMR/UZR, Tango’s rankings… that would be really cool.
If I find the time I will see what I can do
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 5, 2008 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
Only after you finish up the other assignment I gave you on pitchfx/Harang.
It’s like you think you’re in charge or something.
On another note
Felix almost cracked the top ten.
And who voted for RA Dickey?
Troy Glaus is actually pretty good
but he’s no Beltre
by JI on Nov 5, 2008 8:00 AM PST up reply actions
On Chicago sports radio for more than twenty years, Mike Murphy’s many strengths include keen baseball observations. He currently hosts a daily show on WSCR 670 AM The Score.
Under qualified?
by JI on Nov 5, 2008 8:25 AM PST up reply actions
Look at his ballot
Some of his #1s aren’t ranked
He voted Josh Willingham #1 in LF
by JI on Nov 5, 2008 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
I know
his ballot was… interesting, to say the least
Willingham? That's awesome.
Ty Willingham’s a better LF.
I'm glad I never saw that.
He’d make a terrific defensive firstbaseman
by JI on Nov 5, 2008 4:15 PM PST up reply actions
WAIT LF BWAHAHAHAHAHA
Oh God, I wish I could post this from work, but Raul Ibanez got 11 votes somehow
What do you make of the RZR and OOZ from 2008 suggesting...
that Jose Lopez played a solid 2b this year?
I am not as down on him as Dave and Derek
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 5, 2008 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
In your opinion
Does he have enough glove to stick at 2nd?
Sounds about right.
Most had him slightly above average in 2007 too. 0<X<5 or so.
I stopped paying any attention to these when Mark Ellis or Chase Utley was not voted #1 at second base...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Brandon Phillips can pick it.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
Hey Fat Albert didn't win the gold glove this year.
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
"Billy Beane is going to watch the Orlando Hudson negotiations and laugh, and laugh."
Of course, Hudson will sign here.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
hey
over at RR, we all know the Jacobs deal sucks. Okay, most of us know. Ok, some of us know. Ok, I’m pretty dang sure of it. Indeed, I’ve bitched so much about it since it happened (we got burned by a Teahen-for-Franklin Gutierrez rumor just before that turned out to be BS, so the Jacobs things was a major letdown), I might not only get banned, but they might change the website address so that I can’t rejoin…
I know times are tough for you all, but any way you can not rub in that Chuck Lamar is starting to wonder what the hell Dayton Moore is t hinking?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

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