Mariners Chasing Japanese Amateur

by Jeff on Nov 18, 2008 1:27 PM PST in Regular News Comment 83 comments

Not a real wealth of information out there, but:

Junichi Tazawa received visits from Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers scouts Monday, with both teams formally expressing interest in acquiring the highly touted amateur fastballer.
....
Tazawa met with major league scouts for the first time since he asked to be passed over by 12 Japanese clubs in last month's draft when he spoke to the Seattle Mariners and the Atlanta Braves two weeks ago.

Tazawa's a 22 year old righty, and from what I can tell, he throws up to four different pitches:

1) a fastball in the low- to mid-90s, possibly with a bit of run to it

2) a tumbling split-finger

3) a big 12-6 curve

4) a slider

As a pretty highly-touted amateur, he's not yet a finished product, but he'd come over as an intriguing prospect that some consider to be on par with that of a North American first-rounder. He also wouldn't require a posting fee. However, it's not like he'd be an easy land; there's a lot of competition, and Mark Shapiro expects the bidding to reach or exceed $7m. The Braves have already offered him a Major League contract, for whatever that's worth. He's not coming over for pennies.

It's the right idea, though. If the Mariners are committed to a rebuilding process, international free agents look especially appealing, and they won't find many easier ways to improve their standing as an organization than by throwing some money (of which they have more than enough) at maybe the best arm on the foreign market. I mean, Jarrod Washburn's set to earn $10.35m next season. If Zduriencik can unload him on someone else, then there's your Tazawa money right there. What's the harm? It's not every day you stumble across a 22 year old free agent with an above-average repertoire and a starter's endurance.

Tazawa will be free to sign after he's done participating in a tournament, which is scheduled to end on the 24th. Video after the jump.

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This is even better than the chick who throws the knuckleball.

Furcal

by JI on Nov 18, 2008 1:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

We should sign her, too.

She’d be even more of a novelty act than Junior.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Nov 18, 2008 1:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

More people would come out to see the Japanese female pitcher than Junior.

by mark sobba on Nov 18, 2008 3:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

BUT SHE NEVER SAVED BASEBALL IN SEATTLE!!!!111!

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 18, 2008 3:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not yet.

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on Nov 18, 2008 3:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly!

by mark sobba on Nov 18, 2008 3:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Junior, meanwhile

is going to save the world… or something

by Gomez on Nov 18, 2008 10:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If he's already got major league stuff/command,

and his command does look pretty good in the vid there, he still needs something like a year and a half in the minors before he can hit the majors right? As a rotation solution, I don’t like it. There are so very few examples of pitchers who have come over the Pacific and had success (I’m counting Matsuzaka as a disappointment).
But then again as you say, if your high minors have no one with any upside beyond #4 starter, this is the way to restock in a hurry.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 18, 2008 1:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Matsuzaka is an innings-eating #2

he may not be the all-world ace some people thought he’d be, but he’s certainly not a disappointment.

Would you pay, say, $7-8m for a first-round pick that’s immediately ready for the upper minors? I would. (Although if I’m mistaken and Tazawa’s worse than I think he is, then obviously that changes things.)

by Jeff on Nov 18, 2008 1:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

167 IP, 4.82 tRA* is an innings eating #2? I’d call that a just okay number 3. And this is the guy who’s the absolute cream of the crop. Then again, we’re only two years into his ML career so from here he could either figure something out and not walk so many guys, or he could precipitously decline. Both have precedent.

Anyway, $8 milion for a guy who has to hang out in AA/AAA for two years and come up for his first taste of the majors at 24-25 seems kinda steep. But… yeah whatever, these people have more money than they know what to do with.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 18, 2008 10:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This might not be a popular position here

But I don’t like your use of tRA to describe whether or not Daisuke has been a good number two starter or not. A starter’s job is to prevent runs, Matsuzaka has done that. Now, you can say that much of his success this year is unrepeatable, that he will decline to something like his 2007 production next year, ok, but so far he has been a better than number two starter.

A number 3 starter, FWIW, is around 97 ERA+.

by abelard on Nov 18, 2008 10:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

ERA+ is just as useless as ERA.

by BrianL on Nov 18, 2008 10:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

At least on a single season basis.

Furcal

by JI on Nov 18, 2008 11:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

oh boy

Firstly, his 07 was significantly better than his 08. He pitched 37 more innings, walked 14 fewer guys (in more innings) and had the same K rate. If I had a choice between DM ‘07 or DM ’08 I’ll take ‘07 every time. So he wouldn’t be ‘regressing’ to his previous form.

Second, how do you figure that he has been a better than number two starter? He’s the 3rd best starter on his team. He won a lot of games, but guess what so did Washburn in 02. And he is not better than a #2, as I think we know.

Finally, I don’t know what you mean exactly by his ‘production’. If you mean the outs produced by the fielders behind him, then yes, the production this year was very good, but it wasn’t explicitly his. If you mean his pitching, well he pitched much better in 07 but the luck wasn’t there so much.

I do concede that if a #3 starter should be average (ERA+/tRA+ of ~100) then Daisuke is a pretty good #3, though the innings could be a problem if it turns into a pattern.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 18, 2008 11:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

...

A starter’s job is to prevent runs

Not really.

by acblue on Nov 18, 2008 11:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course it is

it’s the job of every single starter except the DH to prevent runs. But a pitcher can only do so much and Matsuzaka did less than the results suggest.

by the way, I first typed resluts instead of results, so I guess I should hit the sack.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 18, 2008 11:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Semantics alert:

It’s the job of the pitcher to make the best possible pitch in any given situation. Run prevention is a team effort. I know it seems like nitpicking but I think it’s an important distinction to make.

by acblue on Nov 18, 2008 11:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I was joking

and trying to imply at the same time that every starting player whether fielder or pitcher is responsible for run prevention.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 19, 2008 6:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

ERA does not describe how well a starter has done at preventing runs

This is so blindingly obvious it’s unreal

by Graham on Nov 19, 2008 7:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I still tend to work with tRA more than tRA*

by Jeff on Nov 18, 2008 11:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Caught me

I chose tRA partly because it makes him look worse.

But also I think if you’re looking at true talent rather than true results (and this is more important if a guy’s only pitched two seasons) the regression is useful. For instance, Daisuke’s HR rate sits at jusr over 4% for the season, and that’s pitching in Fenway. That may or may not continue, but in the meantime I think a little gentle adjustment to league norms is healthy.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 18, 2008 11:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, you're absolutely right

but 2007 happened, too, and we can’t just throw it out. I’m just still on the fence with tRA* on a single-season basis.

Matsuzaka’s been effective. He hasn’t been an ace, or particularly close to it, but I don’t think the Red Sox are disappointed with him.

by Jeff on Nov 19, 2008 9:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

To me, Matsuzaka is one case where I'm not sure how accurately his '08 tRA describes him

just because he’s notorious for nibbling around the plate when he gets behind in the count and that leads to ridiculous walk totals. I’d expect him to make an adjustment and regress towards his ’07 form in the future if/when his LOB rate starts to regress

by seattlebruin on Nov 19, 2008 12:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I can think of many relievers who have dominated

even at an advanced age.

Just off the top of my head:

Otsuka
Sasaki
Okjima
Saito

even Hasegawa was reasonably effective.

IAs for starters, Nomo had a good run, and Dice-K isn’t much of a disappointment at all. I think people have too high of expectations for some of these guys and forget to adjust to the level of play in the league.

Furcal

by JI on Nov 18, 2008 1:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Unknown quantities are always forced to live up to unrealistic expectations.

Ichiro hits balls in the dirt for inside the park home runs!
Matsui will break the HR record!
Matsuzaka throws an unhittable magic pitch guided to home plate by the Spirit Winds!

And so forth. People don’t know anything concrete about these players so they create their own mythology. (And for the record, this isn’t directed at Bearskin Rugburn. I don’t consider Matsuzaka a disappointment, but he’s not as good as I thought he would be either. He’s still damn god though.)

by acblue on Nov 18, 2008 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Matsuzaka is not actually God.

He is good. Just not God.

by acblue on Nov 18, 2008 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Please don't call him Dice-K.

It’s no easier to type than Daisuke.

And it’s way dumber.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Nov 18, 2008 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

can we call him pacman?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 18, 2008 2:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a stupid nickname, but it's pretty well established.

You’re going to see it for a long time.

by Teej on Nov 18, 2008 2:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

But it's not a nickname.

by BrianL on Nov 18, 2008 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Call it what you want, it exists.

It horrible, and it makes no sense. I’m just saying that we’re past the point of defeating it.

by Teej on Nov 18, 2008 2:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

as nicknames go

it’s better than firstinitial-firstsyllableoflastname, but that’s about it.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 18, 2008 2:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I just wish someone could explain it to me.

Other than “If you put these two things together and pronounce them, it sounds like his first name.” If “dice” had any significance, then we could put that with the K (strikeouts) and maybe have it make sense. But “dice” means nothing.

Though two years later, we are learning he is quite the gambler with the number of guys he walks.

by Teej on Nov 18, 2008 2:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's better than having his name mispronounced?

I actually think that having his nickname sound like his actual name is legit feature in this case. Sports announcers mispronounce enough foreign names the way that it is.

by ubelmann on Nov 18, 2008 2:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"Dice-kay" is a mispronunciation anyway, if I'm not mistaken.

by Teej on Nov 18, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Slightly, yes.

There should be a little bit of a stop between the two syllables.

by BrianL on Nov 18, 2008 2:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah: Di-ss-kay

The 2nd syllable is ‘su’ with the ‘u’ silent.

by Gomez on Nov 18, 2008 10:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think it's exact...

…but I thought it was supposed to be pretty close. Without Dice-K, I’m pretty sure that we would hear a lot of die-soo-kay.

by ubelmann on Nov 18, 2008 2:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If you try to say "Huff" in Japanese it will come out "Hai-af-u"

Your never going to get it fully right unless you are familiar with the language.

Furcal

by JI on Nov 18, 2008 2:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely.

Anyway, I’m giving the impression that I care way more than I do. I’m pretty sure I started out defending your using it, and now I’ve moved over and started criticizing it. I’m a dirty hypocrite.

by Teej on Nov 18, 2008 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just saying it's not a nickname at all.

by BrianL on Nov 18, 2008 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think I agree with you.

by Teej on Nov 18, 2008 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well K means strikeout, and dice means something cool

say, the opposite of “no dice”

Yeah it’s meaningless, but it’s not more offensive than any other stupid nickname. I have not idea why someone would get their testicle tied in a knot over it.

Furcal

by JI on Nov 18, 2008 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

ow

by acblue on Nov 18, 2008 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you could just say Ha-fu which sounds remarkably close to Huff

by Fogel on Nov 18, 2008 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Just pulling out nuggets from phonetics class.

Furcal

by JI on Nov 18, 2008 3:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A more fun choice would have been Mexico

Which I think remember comes out as Me-Ki-Shi-Ko.

There are probably other more interesting ones that people could come up with.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 18, 2008 3:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Barely.

by brayden04 on Nov 19, 2008 5:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I see nothing wrong with the nickname and will continue to use it.

Furcal

by JI on Nov 18, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Relievers are a wholly different

I don;t think you can really make the comparison. Nomo yes, you’ve got that. But that’s why I say that there are few cases, not none.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 18, 2008 10:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, dominated is maybe a strong word to use here

I mean, Hasegawa had one season where he dominated. Do you remember what happened the year after?

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 18, 2008 10:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He didn't really dominate in 2003.

Furcal

by JI on Nov 18, 2008 11:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is more of a question

How many Japanese pitchers have gone through the big league minor league system?

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on Nov 18, 2008 2:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Two that I can think of.

Mac Suzuki and that kid who got busted for amateur porn. I could think of his name, probably, but that’s how people will remember him whatever the case.

There’s also Kenta Suda currently in the M’s system trying to pull off the feat.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 18, 2008 3:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Tadahito?

Furcal

by JI on Nov 18, 2008 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Tadano, I thought

by Jeff on Nov 18, 2008 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They all sound alike.

Furcal

by JI on Nov 18, 2008 3:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It was Kaz Tadano

And it wasn’t amateur porn, it was pro gay porn…

Tomo Okha spent two years in the Red Sox system before reaching the majors.

Mike Nakamura was developed in the Twins system, played for the Twins and Jays, then found success back in Japan.

by abelard on Nov 18, 2008 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My mistake.

I wouldn’t necessarily count Nakamura though. He was born in Japan and is playing there, but he went to high school in Australia and college in the U.S.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 18, 2008 3:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah right

I knew about the Australia connection, but I didn’t realize that he went to college in the US.

by abelard on Nov 18, 2008 3:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So basically, the sample size is really too small to say that unknown Japanese pitchers are not worth exploring?

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on Nov 18, 2008 3:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

There are some concerns, obviously, but relative to other international prep players, they have better equipment and instruction at all levels, so they might be a smart investment in some cases.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 18, 2008 3:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd invest in batters.

Not pitchers. Way too much pitcher abuse.

Occasional beasts like Matsuzaka will show up, but I doubt you’ll find a good prospect on a regular basis.

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Nov 18, 2008 4:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about that.

Matsui aside, I tend to find a lot of the position players signed out of Taiwan, at least, end up as tweeners, not quite enough offense to play at a corner and not enough defense to stick at premium positions. Maybe I’ve only been selectively paying attention, but it seems to be a trend, five-tool players, but on the lower end of that spectrum.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 18, 2008 5:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My guess would be like...

5 million, Major League contract.

He also just threw a 5-hitter in his tournament, IIRC.

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Nov 18, 2008 2:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

CG SHO, that is.

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Nov 18, 2008 2:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So, more than Inoa, definitely?

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 18, 2008 3:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I ask because...

if I remember correctly, there wasn’t yet been a prep player or semi pro from that region who has commanded more than a million. I remember Chia-an Huang was the record holder for a while and he got about 825k. That may have changed in the past year or two.

I think Tazawa could be the one to break through, but I don’t know if he’ll break Inoa’s number.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 18, 2008 3:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There is no downside to signing Junichi

other than extreme sucktitude. Sign him to a deal for less than 10 a year, trade Washburn. Wash, rinse, repeat.

I will accept any draft combination of Crabtree, Andre Smith, Stafford, and Mays. Hear that Ruskell? Time to start spreading vicious rumors about all 4 so they fall.

by abender20 on Nov 18, 2008 2:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Crabtree? Really?

I’d much rather have Regis Benn, Dez Bryant or Jeremy Maclin

Hell, I think I’d rather have Jordan Shipley or Juaquin Iglesias

by seattlebruin on Nov 19, 2008 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You fail to mention

That Boston wants him, too.

We’ll sure have fun trying to outbid the 80 billion dollar contract Boston offers.

I have been following this guy the past couple months, and he is impressive. Hopefully we can reel him in, as I would think we have the upper hand give or take the aforementioned Braves. Id be shocked if he goes anywhere besides those 3 teams.

by Slica on Nov 18, 2008 3:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs