Agents Are Honest
K-Rod's agent, Paul Kinzer, insists that such talk is misinformed. He says that Rodriguez is more comfortable throwing his fastball at lower velocities because it gives him better command.
"I saw him hit 96 (mph) twice and 97 once late in the season when he needed a big out against Raul Ibanez with the Mariners," Kinzer said Saturday. "The velocity is there when he needs to reach back for it. He told me he's just more comfortable around 92-93.
Francisco Rodriguez fastballs, 2008: 638
Francisco Rodriguez fastballs >96.0 mph, 2008: 2
Francisco Rodriguez, pitches to Raul Ibanez in September:
94
94
87
88
82
87
89
88
94
79
81
85
86
95
Francisco Rodriguez average fastball, 2007: 95.5
Francisco Rodriguez average fastball, 2008: 92.9
In 2007, 92% of Rodriguez's fastballs clocked in at 94+ mph, and 65% of them were strikes. In 2008, 13% of Rodriguez's fastballs clocked in at 94+ mph, and 44% of them were strikes.
Kinzer is right on one thing: Rodriguez did have better fastball command at lower velocity. While fewer than half of his 94+ fastballs were strikes, the rate jumped up to 64% on fastballs under the threshold. Here's the problem, though - just a season ago, Rodriguez was throwing considerably harder, and when he was throwing considerably harder, he was still finding the zone. Something has changed. So we're left with one of two conclusions:
1) Rodriguez, who has been in the Major Leagues since 2002, only recently discovered that he's more comfortable around 92-93, and he had to "reach back for it" on but two occasions last year
2) Rodriguez is no longer capable of throwing as consistently hard as he used to
If we choose to side with the former, then we may infer that Rodriguez is like the slowest learner of all time. We may also infer that he was reaching the shit out of himself in seasons past, which, whatever, that's weird. Paul Kinzer would have you believe that Francisco Rodriguez - an elite-level closer already with a pair of ASG appearances and Cy Young nominations - deliberately decided to change the way he pitches somewhere between 2007 and 2008. Because things obviously weren't working for him before.
If we choose to side with the latter, then hey congratulations we're not retarded.
Francisco Rodriguez is a good closer. Of that there's no question. But there are already a lot of miles on his arm, and he's coming off the worst season of his career in which his fastball dropped a few ticks. That's bad. Those are two major red flags, and you better believe the league is aware. I would not want to be a fan of the team that ends up footing his contract, because while free agency is almost always about paying for what a guy's already done (as opposed to what you expect him to do), this one takes that to another level.
Good luck to you, future Rodriguez employer. You will have signed the guy with arguably the highest collapse potential on the market. I hope the one extra win or so in the short-term makes a big enough difference.
Comments
Stadium Gun.
There is definitely a difference between stadium guns and Pitch FX. So, he might have seen more >95 in person, even if Pitch FX disagrees.
by batura on
Nov 16, 2008 7:10 PM PST
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You'd think a player's agent of all people would be aware of PITCHf/x
by Jeff on
Nov 16, 2008 7:17 PM PST
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Wouldn't it be better for Kinzer to say something like "Rodriguez has lost velocity yet remained highly effective"?
Seems more salesmanlike and less, y’know, bullshitty.
by Jeff on
Nov 16, 2008 7:26 PM PST
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Ouch, tRA hit
His tRA+ went from 139 to 120 and tRA* went from 3.54 to 4.05 from 2007 to 2008.
by batura on
Nov 16, 2008 11:29 PM PST
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Probably not.
I’d doubt certain GMs are/were aware.
""Bobby Crosby’s Release" - Sounds like a good title to Mr. Crosby’s first work in his next career now that we know he can’t play baseball." - Joey C.
by Blicks on
Nov 16, 2008 8:11 PM PST
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Even still
If I were speaking out of my ass (and I would be if I were a sports agent), I would recount the time my guy hit 101 on the gun, not the time he hit 101 on the gun and I ran home only to find out it was more like 98.
by batura on
Nov 16, 2008 11:27 PM PST
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Stadium gun is usually slower
I think the #‘s Jeff is using are the Gameday #’s, which are calculated at a slightly closer distance to home plate than the release point. I’ve converted them to 55ft from home and, still, KRod is slower. He took a bigger dip after the ASG, but recovered at the end. Apologies for the double link, this is also in a comment down below….
http://www.cubsfx.com/2008/11/k-rods-velocity-pitch-selection-and.html
by Harry Pavlidis on
Nov 17, 2008 7:16 AM PST
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Jesus H
You just laid out the Mariners case for signing K-Rod. Stop giving Lincstrong ideas.
by James F'n X on
Nov 16, 2008 7:20 PM PST
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If we sign him, move Morrow back to the Bullpen and trade for Peavy, we will have 2 1-2-3 punches!
by Robert on
Nov 16, 2008 7:54 PM PST
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I'm excited at the prospect of the Yankees going after him and Sabathia
That $200M duo will rule come 2011.
by katal on
Nov 16, 2008 8:30 PM PST
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Why would the Yankees go after a closer?
by Jeff on
Nov 16, 2008 8:35 PM PST
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Rivera's age
And Frankie’s “incredible” saves record. I get Mariano’s greatness, but K-Rod seems like the type of player that a Steinbrenner gets hot about.
by katal on
Nov 16, 2008 8:37 PM PST
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Rivera just had one of the greatest seasons of all time
The odds of him losing his job are about the same as the odds the Cardinals sign Jason Giambi to play first.
Furcal
by JI on
Nov 16, 2008 8:40 PM PST
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It's going to be neat to see Albert in left field.
by BrianL on
Nov 16, 2008 9:55 PM PST
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I'm fairly sure
that your thinking about the wrong NY team for him to land on.
The Mets are getting so desperate that they might make Johan the closer lol
by RollingWave on
Nov 16, 2008 10:04 PM PST
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